July 02, 2026 (MLN): Highnoon Laboratories Limited (PSX:HINOON) is projected to reach a target price of Rs1,194 per share from its current market price of around Rs1,040, implying a total upside of 15%, by December 2026 as the company's greenfield facility, consistent margin outperformance, and export ramp-up position it for sustained earnings acceleration.

BMA Capital Management, initiated coverage on HINOON with a BUY rating.

The stock currently trades at a CY26F P/E of 11x and CY27F P/E of 9x, a significant discount to the industry peers' average of 14x for CY26F, which the brokerage views as an attractive entry point given a projected five-year forward earnings CAGR of 16.3%.

Capacity Expansion

HINOON is developing a greenfield pharmaceutical manufacturing facility near Lahore, built to international regulatory standards.

The facility's location within a Special Economic Zone entitles the company to a ten-year tax holiday, expected to materially improve long-term profitability, accelerate export growth, and reinforce its competitive positioning. The brokerage considers this the most significant structural catalyst for the company's medium-term earnings trajectory.

Gross Margin Superiority

HINOON has maintained gross margins well above the industry average over the past decade, recording a ten-year average of 49% against the sector's 34%.

Even during the sharp PKR depreciation cycle of 2022–2023 that pressured sector-wide profitability, HINOON held gross margins at 52% in 2022 and 48% in 2023 versus the industry average of 29%.

In 1QCY26, gross margins improved further to 58%, and the brokerage forecasts a full-year CY26 margin of approximately 54%, comfortably above both the company's historical average and the sector benchmark.

Export Growth

HINOON ranks fourth among listed pharmaceutical exporters in Pakistan with an estimated export market share of 11% by value, competing alongside Abbott, AGP, The Searle Company, and HPL.

Export revenues are projected to approach Rs4.0bn by CY31, supported by an expanding international footprint, product registrations across overseas markets, and EU-compliant manufacturing standards.

The company's inclusion in Forbes Asia's Best Under A Billion list in four of the past seven years further highlights its operational discipline and export credentials.

Product Portfolio

HINOON's portfolio is well diversified across chronic and acute therapeutic segments, with acute products accounting for 53% of the mix and chronic products at 47%.

Key revenue-generating brands include Combivair, Cyrocin, Tagipmet, Kestine, and Ulsanic, with the top 10 brands contributing 43% of total gross revenue. Importantly, the highest-selling brand accounts for only around 4% of revenue, indicating low product concentration risk.

The company's wholly owned subsidiary Curexa Health Limited, operational since 2018, produces cephalosporin antibiotics including CEFTRO, XORBACT, and CEFIA, each ranked among the top 15 in their respective molecule segments.

Growth Leadership

HINOON has significantly outpaced the broader pharmaceutical industry in USD-denominated revenue growth over the past decade, delivering a ten-year CAGR of 9.6% against the industry average of 3.4%.

The Pakistani pharmaceutical market itself reached approximately Rs1.05tn in CY25, registering 20.6% YoY growth, providing a favorable demand backdrop for the company's expansion plans.

Key Financial Projections

Source: Company accounts, BMA Capital Management

Key risks cited by the brokerage include greater-than-anticipated PKR devaluation, active pharmaceutical ingredient price volatility, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and import restrictions on raw materials.