Morning News: Interest costs to eat up 40pc of 2025 budget: Moody’s – By WE Research

Nov 19 2024



  • Moody's Investors Service warns that Pakistan’s interest costs will rise significantly, reaching nearly 40% of total spending by 2025, up from about a quarter in 2021. This increase follows Pakistan's agreement to a new $7 billion IMF program to address liquidity pressures, although meeting the conditions of multilateral financing poses challenges and could heighten social risks. The country’s debt affordability remains weaker than pre-pandemic levels, making it particularly vulnerable to food security crises, alongside other emerging and frontier markets like Nigeria and Egypt. The report highlights that in 2025, several countries will face significant debt pressures, with eurobond redemptions and large local currency financing needs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are driving increased defense spending globally, especially in Europe, Japan, and India.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan saw a significant 32% increase during the first four months of fiscal year 2025, totaling $904.3 million, up from $683.5 million in the same period of the previous year. This surge in FDI, which contributed to a total foreign investment of $1.09 billion, marks a positive trend for Pakistan's investment climate. However, FDI dropped in October 2024 compared to the same month last year. Despite the FDI growth, portfolio investment faced challenges, with a $97.2 million outflow, in contrast to a small inflow of $11 million during the same period last year. Overall, total foreign investment rose by 56% compared to FY24, signaling a positive outlook for Pakistan’s economic recovery, although concerns remain regarding portfolio investment and broader market conditions.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week at the PSX, as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Budget. The benchmark KSE-100 index fluctuated between an intraday high of 119,542 points (+389) and a low of 118,665 points (−487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102. Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions.
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): CY24 & 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PABC is the leading manufacturer of beverage cans in Pakistan. The Company is also Pakistan’s first and only manufacturer and exporter of aluminium cans.
  • During CY24, sales revenue increased 17%YoY clocking in at PKR 23Bn. The contribution of the exports to total revenue was around 63% during the year. Export sales increased 53%YoY to PKR 14.4Bn. Gross margin recorded a marginal decrease. Net profit for the year was recorded at PKR 6Bn compared to PKR 5Bn during the SPLY. The net profit margin recorded a marginal increase. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 16.9/sh from PKR 13.9/sh during the SPLY.
  • The Company reported a production of 936Mn cans in CY24, at a capacity utilization of 89%. The production capacity is 1.2Bn cans p.a.
Lalpir Power Limited (LPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • LPL’s Power Purchase Agreement, originally due to expire in Nov’28, was terminated effective Oct 1, 2024, under a Negotiated Settlement Agreement. Receivables up to Sep 30, 2024—including CPP, EPP, and PTI—were cleared by Dec 31, 2024. Delayed payment interest was waived, resulting in significant reversals in the financials. The Company retains ownership of its 350MW oil-fired complex, and no further compensation was provided by the Government. CPPA-G will reimburse the Company for any adverse tax rulings if applicable.
  • Revenue declined 27%YoY to PKR 14.2Bn (CY23: PKR 19.5Bn), reflecting reduced dispatches ahead of PPA expiry. Gross profit fell to PKR 3.55Bn (CY23: PKR 5.6Bn), while PAT sharply dropped to PKR 465Mn from PKR 4.9Bn. This steep decline was primarily driven by non-recurring reversals—including furnace oil inventory written down to net realizable value due to low selling prices and the reversal of interest income due to waived charges under the settlement. EPS declined significantly to PKR 1.22 (CY23: PKR 12.1).
  • LPL reported surplus funds of PKR 9.8Bn as of Dec 31, 2024, ensuring liquidity strength post-PPA. However, Management clarified that it does not plan to distribute excess reserves via dividends in the near term. Instead, the focus is on pursuing high-potential ventures that can deliver superior long-term shareholder value.
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Morning News: SIFC facilitates $2.3 billion in foreign investment since inception, NA informed - By WE Research

May 21 2025



  • Since the formation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in June 2023, Pakistan has attracted around $2.3 billion in foreign investment, with the council credited for easing investor hurdles and streamlining processes. Federal Minister Dr. Tariq Fazal Chaudhry linked SIFC's work to addressing regional security issues, including tensions related to Indian proxies. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Climate Change highlighted Pakistan’s top ranking on the 2025 Climate Risk Index due to the catastrophic 2022 floods, which caused significant human and economic losses. In cybersecurity, Pakistan advanced into the top tier of the UN Global Cyber Security Index 2024, attributed to institutional reforms and the creation of a national emergency response team. With over 20,700 registered IT companies, the government emphasized its ongoing commitment to economic stability, climate resilience, and technological growth through global collaboration.
  • Pakistan’s leading oil refineries have pledged over $6 billion in refinery upgrade projects aimed at modernizing the country’s refining infrastructure and ensuring long-term energy security. In a meeting with Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik, refinery CEOs expressed appreciation for the government's resolution of a long-standing sales tax issue, which they said fosters a more investment-friendly and efficient environment. The CEOs reaffirmed their commitment to upgrading facilities to produce cleaner, Euro-V compliant fuels in line with the Prime Minister’s vision for sustainable energy. Minister Malik emphasized policy consistency and government support as key to sector viability and attracting foreign investment. The upgrades are expected to enhance fuel quality, reduce emissions, cut dependence on imports, and contribute to environmental sustainability, forming a central part of Pakistan’s broader energy and economic strategy.
  • Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO) has announced that the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved the TriPartite Power Purchase Agreement (TPPA), involving the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G), KAPCO, and the National Grid Company of Pakistan. As per NEPRA’s directives in a letter dated May 19, 2025, the signing of the TPPA is contingent upon conducting the Initial Capacity Test (ICT) and Heat Rate Test (HRT). An Independent Engineer will assess and submit the plant's efficiency benchmarks, including Simple Cycle Efficiency and Heat Rate, to NEPRA. Once these steps are completed, the TPPA will become operational, enabling the power plant to commence operations under the new agreement.
Morning News: IMF tightens conditions for Pakistan to get fresh loans: report - By WE Research

May 20 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has imposed stricter conditions on future loans to Pakistan, urging significant economic reforms and warning of risks stemming from U.S. trade policies and rising tensions with India. As part of its agreement, Pakistan must secure parliamentary approval for its next federal budget, implement agricultural tax reforms, and outline a plan to phase out industrial incentives. The IMF also demands timely adjustments in energy tariffs and legislative action to restructure energy sector debt. Despite avoiding default in 2023, Pakistan continues to face economic uncertainty due to high interest payments and global trade disruptions, with the IMF estimating a need for over $100 billion in external financing by 2029. Recently, the IMF disbursed $1 billion and approved an additional $1.4 billion for climate resilience, though geopolitical tensions with India, particularly over Kashmir, pose continued fiscal and reputational risks.
  • During a visit to the Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI), Chief Commissioner Inland Revenue Zubair Bilal announced potential relief for the salaried class in the upcoming federal budget and reiterated the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) zero-tolerance stance on corruption. He encouraged KATI to submit budget proposals for review and assured regular consultations to address industry concerns, emphasizing that business growth directly benefits the national economy. KATI President Junaid Naqi criticized recurring issues such as arbitrary FBR notices, lack of comprehensive policies, and the burden on compliant taxpayers, especially under IMF-driven tax targets. He strongly opposed FBR’s proposed presence in industrial units, citing constitutional violations. Other KATI leaders echoed concerns over tax system inefficiencies and called for digitization, accountability for evaders, and fair treatment of honest taxpayer.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed the government's commitment to harnessing private sector expertise to drive structural reforms, productivity, and export -led growth during a meeting with a Deloitte delegation. The discussion, a follow-up to earlier talks at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings 2025, focused on collaboration in critical sectors like energy, minerals, health, and climate, particularly through the operationalisation of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The Minister emphasized Pakistan’s priority areas—climate resilience and population management—highlighting strategic support over financing needs, supported by the recently approved $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Deloitte expressed support for Pakistan’s reform agenda, and both sides agreed to maintain close coordination to identify high-impact, outcome-based initiatives.
Morning News: Over $1bn received from IMF - By WE Research

May 15 2025



  • Pakistan has received over $1 billion from the IMF as the second tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), bringing total disbursements under the program to $2.1 billion. This follows the IMF Executive Board’s first review of Pakistan’s economic progress, which also approved a separate $1.4 billion loan under the Climate Resilience Fund. The EFF, totaling $7 billion over 37 months, aims to support economic stability, structural reforms, and investor confidence. The IMF praised Pakistan’s progress despite global challenges, and SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed expressed optimism that foreign reserves will reach $14 billion by June 2025, aided by strong remittances and a current account surplus.
  • In its latest semi-annual review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) has added seven Pakistani companies to its Frontier Market and Small Cap Indexes, enhancing the country's presence in global equity markets. Three cement firms—Fauji Cement, DG Khan Cement, and Maple Leaf Cement—have joined the Frontier Markets Index, increasing Pakistan's representation to 26 companies and potentially drawing $5–8 million in passive inflows. Four additional firms were added to the Small Cap Index, while DG Khan Cement was upgraded and two firms were removed. Despite some not meeting minimum thresholds, a buffer rule allowed their retention. This development is seen as a step toward restoring investor confidence following Pakistan’s 2021 downgrade from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status.
  • Yields on short-term government securities in Pakistan dropped by up to 90 basis points in the May 14, 2025 Treasury Bills (T-bills) auction, reflecting market optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s recent 100-bps policy rate cut. The auction saw strong participation, with bids totaling Rs 1.987 trillion, led by high interest in 1-month T-bills. The government accepted Rs 664 billion in bids—exceeding its Rs 550 billion target but below the Rs 716 billion in maturing debt. Cut-off yields now range between 11.24% and 11.35% across different tenors. The decline signals positive investor sentiment and expectations of continued monetary easing, although foreign investment in T-bills has reportedly been impacted by the rate cut.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Accounts cross 0.8 million, total funds surpass $10 billion - By WE Research

May 8 2025



  • As of March 2025, the number of Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) has exceeded 805,000, with over 8,000 new accounts added in the month, and total funds received crossing the $10 billion mark. Launched in 2020 by the State Bank of Pakistan in partnership with commercial banks, the RDA initiative provides Non-Resident Pakistanis (NRPs) and Pakistan Origin Card holders with digital banking and investment services. In March alone, $235 million was added to these accounts. Of the total inflows, $6.368 billion has been used locally, while $1.733 billion has been repatriated, leaving a net repatriate liability of $1.901 billion. The initiative aims to deepen financial inclusion for overseas Pakistanis, enabling them to participate in property, vehicle, stock market, and charitable ventures in Pakistan.
  • In alignment with its commitments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistani government plans to phase out the tax-free status of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) over the next decade, starting with reducing the current tax exemption period to nine years from July 2025. The policy shift includes amending tax laws to eliminate fiscal incentives such as tax breaks and subsidies for companies operating in SEZs. A report by consultancy firm AT Kearney, due by June 2025, will evaluate the fiscal impact and effectiveness of these incentives. Going forward, no new or renewed fiscal incentives will be offered, and existing ones will be gradually replaced with cost-based incentives by 2035, while respecting any binding contractual obligations.
  • In response to rising regional tensions following recent Indian aggression, Pakistan's Finance Ministry held an emergency meeting to assess the country's financial resilience and national security. Chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb via Zoom, the meeting included top officials from the State Bank, SECP, and Finance Division. Participants conducted a rapid risk assessment of equity, debt, FX, and interbank markets, reaffirming the stability of Pakistan’s financial system and the government’s commitment to business continuity. The meeting emphasized enhanced vigilance, particularly in cybersecurity and communication infrastructure, and reinforced contingency planning. Regular situation reviews were agreed upon to ensure proactive oversight and reassure financial markets and the broader business community
Morning News: Investment drive launched in UK - By WE Research

May 7 2025



  • Muhammad Ali, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Privatisation, and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb have launched a strategic investment initiative in the UK to attract foreign direct investment and strengthen Pakistan’s global economic ties. During their two-day visit to London, they are engaging with major international financial institutions—including Deutsche Bank, Berenberg Bank, and Amundi Fund Group—to highlight Pakistan’s privatisation roadmap and long-term investment potential. A key feature of the visit is the Pakistan Investors Day, hosted by Jefferies on May 8, 2025, where Pakistan’s economic reforms and investor-friendly agenda will be showcased. The visit underscores the government’s commitment to transparency, economic stability, and private sector-led growth, positioning Pakistan as an emerging destination for global capital.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to deepening bilateral ties with Russia, emphasizing expanded cooperation in trade, investment, technology, and people-to-people exchanges. Speaking at the 80th Anniversary of Russia's Victory in the Great Patriotic War, he highlighted the growing momentum in Pakistan-Russia relations and praised recent high-level engagements as a foundation for stronger ties. President Zardari extended congratulations to President Putin and the Russian people, acknowledging their resilience and commitment to peace. He recalled Pakistan's historical contributions during World War II and his own 2011 visit to Russia, lauding Russia's role in promoting regional stability and peace, particularly in easing Pakistan-India tensions. He underscored the importance of continued collaboration for regional and global progress.
  • The recent visit of the US Chamber of Commerce and US-Pakistan Business Council (USPBC) delegation to Pakistan, led by Charles Freeman and accompanied by US Charge d’Affaires Ms. Natalie A. Baker, highlighted growing trade and economic ties between the United States and Pakistan. During meetings with Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan, the resumption of US soybean exports was praised as a sign of pragmatic cooperation and deepening agricultural trade, with further potential in the cotton sector. Both sides expressed commitment to enhancing bilateral trade and investment, with Pakistan emphasizing its appreciation of the US as its largest export destination and pledging to improve the trade environment through transparent and fair practices. A 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs presents a critical opportunity for dialogue and strategy development. The visit underscored the importance of continued engagement to strengthen economic relations, support job creation, and foster mutual growth
Morning News: Key policy rate slashed by 100bps to 11pc - By WE Research

May 6 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing a sharp drop in inflation due to lower electricity tariffs and easing food prices, bringing the total rate cut since June 2024 to 11 percentage points. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April, and core inflation also declined, while real GDP grew by 1.7% in Q2-FY25, driven by improved remittances, a current account surplus, and rising business confidence. Despite some weak industrial segments and agricultural output challenges, the MPC maintained its FY25 growth forecast at 2.5– 3.5% and projected further improvement in FY26, though risks remain from global uncertainty, supply -chain issues, and volatile commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise to $14 billion by June 2025, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain on target despite challenges in meeting the primary surplus goal, highlighting the need for sustained reforms in taxation and state-owned enterprises.
  • Efforts are underway to project Pakistan’s real GDP growth at around 3% for FY2024–25, despite low investment and savings rates and weak performance in key sectors. Concerns have been raised over the credibility of this target, especially with contractions in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which declined 1.9% in Jul–Feb FY25, and a significant drop in major crop output, including cotton (down 33%) and maize. Although second-quarter growth was boosted—partly by historically high livestock estimates—reaching 3% would require a nearly 5% growth in the third quarter, which seems unlikely given current sectoral trends. Agriculture remains weak due to water shortages and low crop yields, while multilateral institutions project GDP growth between 2–2.6%. Despite this, internal government bodies, including the Ministry of Planning and Finance, appear eager to portray a higher growth trajectory ahead of the upcoming Economic Survey. The final provisional GDP estimate is expected by May 20, 2025, although independent experts argue growth may not exceed 2% based on the current data trajectory.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan’s overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by 0.4 points to 56.9, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan and IBA, driven by improvements in both the Industry and Services sectors. The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), reflecting perceptions over the past six months, climbed 0.9 points to 56, while the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) remained stable at 57.8. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also improved by 0.7 points to 53.5, signaling moderate expansion. Businesses’ inflation expectations rose slightly by 0.2 points to 64.2. Notably, the Expected Employment Index increased by 1.3 points to 55.3, with both industry and services sectors showing gains. Additionally, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector edged up by 0.4% to 64.8%, indicating a slight uptick in production activity
Morning News: IMF rejects India’s request on Pakistan loans - By WE Research

May 5 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has declined India’s request to reconsider Pakistan’s loan arrangements, with IMF representative Mahir Binici confirming that the Executive Board is scheduled to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan’s current loan program and also consider a proposed new climate financing initiative.
  • The Pakistani government is tentatively setting an ambitious tax revenue target of Rs14.3 trillion for fiscal year 2025-26, up by Rs2 trillion from the current year’s downward-revised Rs12.3 trillion target. This new target, representing 11% of projected GDP, may require Rs500 billion in fresh tax measures in addition to the Rs1.3 trillion already imposed this year. Despite these efforts, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is currently facing an Rs830 billion shortfall, reflecting the economy’s limited capacity to bear more tax without structural reforms. The upcoming budget, expected in early June, is being shaped amid IMF scrutiny, with the Fund visiting Pakistan on May 14 to review fiscal plans. Meanwhile, the government has not finalized its stance on business community proposals, including those from the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI), which has advocated for measures like exempting lower income groups, easing tax burdens on compliant taxpayers and businesses, reducing corporate and dividend taxes, and restoring export-related tax benefits. However, many of these are at odds with IMF conditions, complicating fiscal planning ahead of what officials warn will be a “tough” budget cycle.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan’s cement industry recorded a 13.24% year-on-year growth in total cement despatches, reaching 3.342 million tons, driven by a 7.64% increase in domestic sales and a strong 34.56% rise in exports. North-based mills contributed 2.239 million tons, while South-based mills saw a larger growth rate of 27.81%, despatching 1.10 million tons. Despite export gains—especially from the South—domestic sales remained sluggish, with the first ten months of FY25 showing a 5.55% decline in domestic demand and a minor 0.32% dip in total despatches. Exports surged 28.77% during the same period, partially offsetting weak local consumption. The APCMA spokesperson welcomed the export growth but emphasized that one-third of production capacity remains underutilized due to low domestic demand, urging the government to introduce pro-industry policies in the upcoming budget to stimulate construction and boost global competitiveness.
Morning News: SBP buys $5.7bn from interbank market to boost forex reserves - By WE Research

May 2 2025



  • Between June 2024 and January 2025, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) purchased $5.677 billion from the interbank market to boost foreign exchange reserves and meet external debt obligations. In January alone, it bought $154 million, a decline from December’s $536 million. Pakistan posted a current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March and a cumulative surplus of $1.9 billion for the first nine months of FY2025, reversing a $1.7 billion deficit from the previous year. Of the $26 billion in external debt repayments due for FY2025, $16 billion is expected to be refinanced, and $8 billion of the $10 billion net payable has already been repaid. SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad highlighted these measures during meetings with global financial institutions, noting the buildup of forex reserves through market purchases and a strengthened external account.
  • Chairman OGRA Masroor Khan informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Petroleum that Pakistan has sufficient petroleum reserves to meet both domestic and defense needs and is leveraging technology to combat fuel smuggling. The committee, chaired by Syed Mustafa Mehmood, reviewed petroleum quality, smuggling control, and sectoral strategies. OGRA is collaborating with the FBR to implement a track and trace system and has launched a mobile app for fuel quality verification. Pricing mechanisms based on PSO benchmarks and freight margins were scrutinized, with calls for a review. Newly appointed Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik stressed institutional reforms, enhanced sector sustainability, and a new gas sector plan amid declining consumption. Smuggling remains a challenge despite enforcement actions, including vehicle seizures and tighter border controls, though issues persist in areas like Attock and Chakwal. Discussions also covered dealer margin increases, LPG supply through an MoU between JJVL and SSGC, and constraints on importing oil from Iran due to IMF and FATF obligations. The committee called for stronger border measures and a detailed briefing from the Ministry of Interior on anti-smuggling efforts.
  • The World Bank has approved $108 million in additional financing for two key development projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, aimed at enhancing rural accessibility and strengthening the tourism sector. The funding includes $78 million for the KP Rural Accessibility Project (KPRAP) to upgrade climate-resilient rural roads, benefiting 1.76 million people, especially in remote and disasterprone areas, with a focus on gender inclusion such as safe school transport for girls. Additionally, $30 million has been allocated to the KP Integrated Tourism Development Project (KITE) to complete road infrastructure to key tourist sites, improve destination management, and support local job creation and heritage preservation. These initiatives are expected to boost access to essential services, climate and economic resilience, and create opportunities for inclusive growth, particularly for women and youth in the province