Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways – By Topline Research

Nov 20 2024


Topline Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) conducted analyst briefing today to discuss business performance and future outlook.
  • Company’s average grey cement retention price stood at Rs14.8k/ton in FY24 compared to Rs13.4k/ton in FY23. Currently the average grey cement retention price stands at Rs17.5k/ton. While white cement retention prices are Rs18k/ton. Export price for the company stands at US$45/ton.
  • Raw material cost for the company, on consolidated basis, increased to ~Rs3.9bn in FY24 compared to ~Rs2.9bn in FY23. This is an increase of 34% despite lower production in FY24. Main reason for increase was royalty on limestone increasing to Rs250/ton from Rs115/ton in FY23.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF): Result Review: MLCF 3QFY25 EPS Rs2.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.8bn (EPS Rs2.7) as compared to earnings of Rs1.5bn (EPS of Rs1.4) during the same period last year, up by 86%YoY. The result came above our estimate mainly due to lower effective taxation during the quarter.
  • During 3QFY25, MLCF’s topline clocked in at Rs16.6bn, up by 4%YoY. Despite the decline in volumetric sales (down 9%YoY), higher topline is driven by better retention prices during the period.
  • MLCF’s gross margin clocked in at 35% during 3QFY25 as compared to 30% during the last year. This elevated gross margin is due to 1) Improved retention prices 2) Lower coal cost and 3) Efficient coal mix.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings beat expectation on lower tax - By IIS Research

Apr 23 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 2.8bn (EPS: PKR 2.64) compared to PKR 1.5bn (EPS: PKR 1.44) in the same period last year, reflecting a 2x YoY increase. This strong performance was driven by improved gross margins and a lower effective tax rate.
  • The company’s topline grew by 4% YoY to PKR 16.6bn, mainly due to higher bag prices. However, revenue declined by 13% QoQ, owing to a 10% drop in total dispatches and a 5% QoQ decline in prices.
  • Gross margins stood at 36% compared to 30% in the same period last year, benefiting from an efficient fuel mix, increased use of alternative fuels and a decline in coal prices. On a QoQ basis, it declined by 400 bps.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): 3QFY25 Result Review — Higher prices and lower taxation lift earnings - By AKD Research

Apr 23 2025


AKD Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 financial results, posting consolidated earnings of PkR2.8bn (EPS: PkR2.67), up 86%YoY compared to PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR1.44) in SPLY. Earnings came in above our expectations, primarily due to higher-thanexpected revenue and a lower taxation charge.
  • Revenue clocked in at PkR16.6bn, an increase of 4%YoY from PkR16.0bn in SPLY, supported by 5%YoY rise in company offtakes. Notably, revenue exceeded expectations, possibly due to higher-than-anticipated sales of ‘hdPutty’.
  • Gross margins improved by 5.6ppt YoY to 35.5%, driven by elevated cement prices and lower coal costs
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): 3QFY25 Consolidated EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.7, PAT down 25%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 3QFY25 (Consolidated) – EPS: PKR 2.7, PAT: ~PKR 2.8Bn, down 25%QoQ – in line with our expectations.
  • MLCF’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 16.6Bn in 3QFY25, down 13%QoQ due to decrease in overall dispatches by 6%QoQ (Domestic and Export dispatches plunged by 2% and 61%, respectively). Gross margin hovered at ~35%, down 5pptsQoQ mainly due to lower overall retail prices in the North Region and higher cost of production. Distribution and Admin expenses fell by 26%QoQ and 20%QoQ, respectively. 3QFY25 PAT arrived at PKR 2.8Bn, down 25%QoQ mainly due to lower dispatches compared to the previous quarter. Lastly, the Company did not announce a cash dividend for the quarter.
Maple Leaf Cement Limited (MLCF): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR2.67 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 23 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple Leaf cement has announced its 3QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR2.8bn (EPS: PKR2.7) vs. PAT of PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR1.4) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to lower effective tax rate.
  • In 3QFY25, revenue increased by 4% YoY mainly due to higher volumetric sales and better retention price. While on QoQ, same is down by 13% amid lower offtakes and retention price.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 35%, up by ~5.5ppts YoY, due to decline in coal prices and reliance on cheaper fuel mix. While on sequential basis, same is down by ~4.7ppts due to lower retention prices.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Maple Leaf Cement is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 2,067 million (EPS: PKR 1.97) for 3QFY25, reflecting an impressive 83% YoY increase.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 16,711 million, up 5%YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 34.6%, up 6.6ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy—20 MW solar power projects and 37 MW capacity through the Waste Heat Recovery Power Plant (WHRP)—has contributed to this margin expansion.
Pakistan Cement: MLCF, CHCC & DGKC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF), D.G Khan Cement Company Ltd (DGKC), and Cherat Cement Company Ltd (CHCC).
  • We expect MLCF and CHCC to post earnings of Rs1.85/share and Rs7.9/share, reflecting a YoY growth of 71% and 24% respectively, primarily driven by improved margins and higher other income. Likewise, DGKC is projected to report EPS of Rs3.7, up 37% YoY, supported by higher dispatches (+36%) and notable reduction in financial charges due to easing.
  • Cement prices in the North region continue to recover, rising Rs120/bag since late Feb-2025, which is likely to bode well for all three companies. Nevertheless, a potential increase in limestone royalty charge bringing it in-line with Punjab players is expected to weigh on earnings for CHCC with a potential negative impact of Rs9.5/sh on our FY26 earnings forecast
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings surge 3x QoQ on Higher Sales - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 3.7bn (EPS: PKR 3.57) vs. PKR 1.3bn (EPS: PKR 1.28) in the previous quarter, reflecting a 3x QoQ increase. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to higher than projected revenue and gross margins.
  • The company’s topline grew by 21% QoQ to PKR 19bn, likely driven by 17% QoQ increase in total dispatches and improved export prices. On a YoY basis, revenue went up by 5%, supported by higher bag prices despite a 6% YoY decline in dispatches.
  • Gross margins stood at 40% compared to 32% in the previous quarter, benefiting from improved margins on white cement, an efficient fuel mix, and a decline in coal prices.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs3.57, up by 66% YoY (Earnings higher than expectations) - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • MLCF announced its 2QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs3.7bn (EPS of Rs3.57), up by 66% YoY and by 178% QoQ.
  • The result came higher than expectations in 2QFY25 due to higher-than-expected gross margins and higher than expected other income.
  • Alongside the result, the company did not announce any cash dividend which is as per expectations.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): 2QFY25 Result Review — Higher retention & lower taxes lift earning - By AKD Research

Feb 20 2025


AKD Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 financial results, reporting consolidated profitability of PkR3.7bn (EPS: PkR3.6), up 67%YoY compared to PkR2.2bn (EPS: PkR2.1) in SPLY. Earnings came above our expectations due to higher-than anticipated gross margins, elevated other income, and lower taxation.
  • Revenue clocked in at PkR19.0bn in 2QFY25, up 5%YoY from PkR18.0bn in SPLY, as higher retention prices outweighed the impact of 6%YoY decline in offtakes. Betterthan-expected retention prices were likely driven by increased sales of white cement and hdPutty.
  • Gross margins improved to 39.8% from 35.3% in SPLY, mainly on the back of aforementioned higher retention prices and a decline in weighted avg. coal prices
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week at the PSX, as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Budget. The benchmark KSE-100 index fluctuated between an intraday high of 119,542 points (+389) and a low of 118,665 points (−487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102. Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions.
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): CY24 & 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PABC is the leading manufacturer of beverage cans in Pakistan. The Company is also Pakistan’s first and only manufacturer and exporter of aluminium cans.
  • During CY24, sales revenue increased 17%YoY clocking in at PKR 23Bn. The contribution of the exports to total revenue was around 63% during the year. Export sales increased 53%YoY to PKR 14.4Bn. Gross margin recorded a marginal decrease. Net profit for the year was recorded at PKR 6Bn compared to PKR 5Bn during the SPLY. The net profit margin recorded a marginal increase. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 16.9/sh from PKR 13.9/sh during the SPLY.
  • The Company reported a production of 936Mn cans in CY24, at a capacity utilization of 89%. The production capacity is 1.2Bn cans p.a.
Lalpir Power Limited (LPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • LPL’s Power Purchase Agreement, originally due to expire in Nov’28, was terminated effective Oct 1, 2024, under a Negotiated Settlement Agreement. Receivables up to Sep 30, 2024—including CPP, EPP, and PTI—were cleared by Dec 31, 2024. Delayed payment interest was waived, resulting in significant reversals in the financials. The Company retains ownership of its 350MW oil-fired complex, and no further compensation was provided by the Government. CPPA-G will reimburse the Company for any adverse tax rulings if applicable.
  • Revenue declined 27%YoY to PKR 14.2Bn (CY23: PKR 19.5Bn), reflecting reduced dispatches ahead of PPA expiry. Gross profit fell to PKR 3.55Bn (CY23: PKR 5.6Bn), while PAT sharply dropped to PKR 465Mn from PKR 4.9Bn. This steep decline was primarily driven by non-recurring reversals—including furnace oil inventory written down to net realizable value due to low selling prices and the reversal of interest income due to waived charges under the settlement. EPS declined significantly to PKR 1.22 (CY23: PKR 12.1).
  • LPL reported surplus funds of PKR 9.8Bn as of Dec 31, 2024, ensuring liquidity strength post-PPA. However, Management clarified that it does not plan to distribute excess reserves via dividends in the near term. Instead, the focus is on pursuing high-potential ventures that can deliver superior long-term shareholder value.
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • The management of Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW) held it's corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results for 3QFY25 and share the company's future outlook.
  • SAZEW plans to complete its four-wheeler manufacturing expansion by March 2026 and introduce new NEV models. The company will also focus on expanding its export markets (mainly three wheelers) and the local dealership network. Sazgar currently has a network of 20 four-wheeler dealers, with expansion underway as new centers in Mardan and Peshawar are set to open soon.
  • The production capacity of the company will increase from 40-50 cars a day to 90-100 cars a day post expansion.
Economy: Pakistan Federal Budget FY26 Preview Fiscal consolidation to continue; Third consecutive year of primary surplus - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Fiscal consolidation to continue: Pakistan is set to announce Federal Budget FY26 on Jun 02, 2025. We expect this budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed/low tax areas in tax net. Furthermore, we believe, this Budget FY26 hold high importance from policy point of view as various additional legislative engagements are likely to be undertaken i.e. inclusion of Section 114c, National Tariff Policy, Captive Power Levy Ordinance, removing cap on Debt Servicing Surcharge (DSS) amongst others.
  • Government’s commitment to IMF for FY26 Budget: Government has committed with IMF to continue with fiscal consolidation in FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability. The government targets primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP (vs. 2.0-2.1% of GDP in FY25), a surplus for third consecutive year after 2 decades. The govt. has also committed to use any windfall dividend expected from central bank over and above 1% of GDP to retire debt.
  • FBR FY26 Tax revenue growth target could be lowest in 6 years: FBR revenue target is expected at Rs14.1-14.3tn, up 16-18% YoY, which will be a lowest % growth in last 6 years. FBR has achieved 5-year revenue CAGR of 25% from FY21-25. We believe, out of this required 16-18% growth, ~12% would be achieved through autonomous growth driven by real GDP growth of 3.6% and inflation of 7.7%. The remaining 4-5% growth translates into additional tax measures of Rs500-600bn, we estimate.
Power: Apr’25 generation up 22%YoY / 25%MoM - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Power generation in Apr’25 clocked in at 10,511GWh, reflecting a 22%YoY increase and a 25%MoM jump, driven by seasonal recovery in demand as temperatures rose. This marks a significant rebound from Mar’25, when generation stood at 8,409GWh, following a dip to 6,945GWh in February due to winter-related slowdown in both household and industrial consumption.
  • Cumulatively, 10MFY25 power generation stood at 100,658GWh, reflecting a slight 0.3% YoY decline compared to 100,966GWh in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation saw a sharp rebound, increasing by 78%MoM and 11%YoY, contributing 2,306GWh—driven by higher power demand. Coal-based generation, which was the highest contributor in the mix, surged 1.9xYoY to 2,579GWh and rose 33%MoM— likely due to improved plant availability and lower global coal prices. However, nuclear generation declined by 8%YoY and 15% MoM, contributing 1,882GWh. Meanwhile, generation from expensive sources like furnace oil and HSD dropped to just 1% of the mix, in line with the Government’s continued shift toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan GDP grew 2.4% in 3QFY25 FY25 provisional GDP growth of 2.68% fall below target of 3.6% - By Topline Research

May 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • In line with our expectation, Pakistan posted real GDP growth of 2.4% during 3QFY25 compared to revised estimates of 1.5% and 1.4% for 2QFY25 and 1QFY25, respectively. The average quarterly growth for 9MFY25 is estimated around 1.8%.
  • While government has published provisional growth of 2.68% for FY25, lower than the targeted growth of 3.6%. Segment wise, agriculture, industry and services are projected to post growth of 0.6%, 4.8%, and 2.9%, respectively compared to target growth rate of 2%, 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively.
  • We believe, towards end of the year, services numbers for FY25 will be revised up as 9MFY25 growth average is already 2.97%, while industrial growth will be sharply revised down as in 9MFY25 industry has contracted by 1%.
United Bank Limited (UBL): Earnings Revised Up; Buy Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

May 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised our earnings estimates for United Bank Limited (UBL) upward by 55% for both 2025 and 2026 to Rs96/share and Rs85/share, respectively following the incorporation of 1Q2025 results.
  • UBL’s 1Q2025 results came above industry expectations, primarily driven by higher-thanexpected Net Interest Income (NII). This was supported by strong growth in current account deposits, increased repo borrowings with improved spreads, and higher than expected capital gains.
  • Strong Deposit Growth: UBL reported a strong total deposit growth of 23% YoY and 29% QoQ in 1Q2025 compared to peer banks (HBL, MCB, ABL, NBP, MEBL) average of 15% YoY and 5% QoQ. UBL’s current account deposits also showed robust performance, rising by 50% YoY and 20% QoQ compared to peer banks average of 16% YoY and 11% QoQ. As a result, UBL’s current account mix improved to 54% as of Mar-2025, compared to 44% in Mar-2024.
Economy: Pakistan Inflation to clock in at 3.5-4.0% in May 2025 Bottomed out in Apr 2025 - By Topline Research

May 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025 is expected to clock in at 3.5-4.0% YoY, taking 11MFY25 average to 4.77% compared to 24.52% in 11MFY24. The MoM inflation in May 2025 is expected to clock in at +0.1%.
  • As mentioned in our previous month inflation report dated Apr 21, 2025, the inflation numbers bottomed out in Apr 2025.
  • During May 2025, food inflation is expected to decline by 0.3% MoM, primarily due to a 27% drop in tomato prices and a 16% decline in onion prices. However, this was partially offset by 24% increase in egg prices, a 20% rise in fresh vegetable prices, and an 8.5% rise in chicken prices.
Technology: IT Exports in Apr-25 up by 2% YoY to record US$317mn 10MFY25 exports up by 21% YoY - By Topline Research

May 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$317mn in Apr-2025, up by 2% YoY while down by 7% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Apr-2025 are higher than last 12-month average of US$314mn. This is the 19th consecutive month of YoY IT export growth, starting from October 2023.
  • Export proceeds per day were recorded at US$15.9mn for Apr-25 vs. US$18.0mn in Mar-25.
  • This takes 10MFY25 IT exports to US$3.1bn, up by 21% YoY.
Pakistan Pharmaceutical: Listed Pharma Sector Analysis 3QFY25; Deregulation improved sales and margins - By Topline Research

May 9 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan listed pharmaceuticals sector’s earnings were up by 83% YoY to Rs8.0bn in 3QFY25. This jump in profitability is primarily attributed to higher net sales, improved gross margins, and a decline in finance cost.
  • Net sales increased by 12% YoY to Rs85.5bn in 3QFY25, primarily driven by an increase in drug prices following the deregulation of non-essential drugs in Feb-2024. Haleon, ABOT, FEROZ, HPL, and AGP led the sector, showing strong sales growth in absolute terms.
  • This price increase led to an improvement in gross margins, rising to 39% in 3QFY25 from 31% in 3QFY24. Additionally, the recent decline in raw material prices for many drugs and the stable currency further contributed to the increase in gross margins. AGP recorded highest gross margins of 58% in 3QFY25.
Technology: Pakistan Listed Technology Comp Sheet - By Topline Research

May 9 2025


Topline Securities


  • The IT sector is currently trading at 2025 P/E of 15.2x and P/S of 1.7x with average gross margins and EBIDTA margins of 26% and 16% respectively. Valuation of the sector has come down in line with global trend but it still trades at discount to comparable tech sector in developing markets. SYS remains our top pick in the sector. It trades at 2025F P/E of 12.9x and P/S of 1.6x which is at a discount to global IT players with similar revenue and earnings growth trajectory.
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