Economy: Inflation for Dec’24 to clock in at 4.15%YoY – By AKD Research

Dec 30 2024


AKD Securities


  • Inflation for Dec’24 is projected to rise modestly by 0.15%MoM, amounting to 4.15%YoY for Dec'24. The slight monthly uptick is primarily driven by higher fruit and vegetable prices, coupled with seasonal increases in clothing/garment demand due to falling temperatures nationwide. Additionally, the upward pull is also led by the transport index, due to revisions in MS/HSD prices by PkR3.70/3.30 per liter.
  • Conversely, the housing index is anticipated to retract by 0.70%MoM due to downward adjustments in QTA and FCA, resulting in our estimated electricity tariff to decline by ~3.5%MoM for the month
  • Overall, the inclining trend in essential food commodities during the measurement period is expected to result in a 0.37%MoM increase in our Food index, reversing from 0.20%MoM decline recorded during Nov’24. Notably, the trend of essential food commodities during the month was as follows: i) Potatoes (↑7%MoM) ii) Eggs (↑5%MoM), iii) Cooking Oil (↑3.5%MoM) and iv) Sugar (↑2%MoM). Overall, this would bring the average inflation for CY24E to 12.65%YoY, a significant decline from the 30.76%YoY recorded in CY23.

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AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Economy: May-25 CPI likely at 2.7%, base effect wears off - By JS Research

May 27 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May-2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%.
  • Due to the rapid disinflation during the year, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 averages 4.6%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 5.7%.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced policy rate to 11% in the last MPC meeting, owing to rapidly declining inflation. A further rate cut of 50-100bps cannot be ruled out in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Morning News: IMF in disagreement over key targets, subsidies - By Vector Research

May 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations.
  • Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran which stood at $3billion would be taken to $10 billion volume in the next few years, as there was immense potential of growth. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday departed to Iran after concluding his two-day official visit to Turkiye.
  • Despite projected remittance inflows of $38 billion in the current fiscal year (FY25), Pakistan’s per expatriate remittance remains significantly lower than that of peer countries. “Although remittances have grown at a compound annual rate of 6.1 per cent from 2013 to 2023, per expatriate remittance remains low in comparison to other countries in the region,” said a report released by the Policy Research and Advisory Council (PRAC) on Monday.
Morning News: Budget features bold measures for ‘strategic direction - By HMFS Research

May 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday pledged that the upcoming federal budget would introduce “bold measures” to steer the national economy in a strategic direction and make available whatever support is required by the armed forces. Further said that every possible support would be provided to the armed forces, stressing that it was a national need in light of recent cross-border aggression, not just a military requirement. He said the government would ensure simplified tax returns and forms for the salaried class. He said that around 70 to 80 percent of salaried people did not hold equity and fixed-income portfolios. “They receive salaries through bank accounts with tax deducted at source. They should not have to fill in 140-150 data points,” he said, adding that the government aimed to reduce that number to just nine — five for wealth tax and four for income tax. He said the process would now be accelerated, with transactions involving Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), three power distribution companies and some financial institutions expected to reach completion by the end of this year.
  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations. “The budget announcement has been delayed by a week because the Finance Ministry’s figures are still under reconciliation. The IMF has placed a cap on subsidies,” he added. He further noted that the IMF has declined to make any changes to the revised budget figures recently presented to the Fund’s team.
  • The government is seriously considering reducing federal excise duty (FED) on beverages (aerated water) in the coming budget (2025-26) to attract foreign investment in this sector. Foreign investors including Turkish investors have promised more foreign direct investment in beverage sector in case of tax relief in the coming budget (2025-26). Leading global players with Turkish and Korean franchise investors have invested over USD 2 billion in Pakistan since 2018. However, no new investments have been made since 2023 due to the current fiscal environment. The industry contributes over Rs 175 billion in taxes annually (FED, GST, income tax, super tax) - one of the highest taxed sectors.
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC): Exports outlook gets weaker; Reiterate Sell - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We tweak down our CY25E/CY26E EPS estimates for Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC) by 9% and TP by 4%. The revision is mainly led by the expected fall in volumes led by border issues with Afghanistan coupled with the upcoming capacity expansions in Central Asia, which may adversely impact PABC’s export prospects to the region. We reiterate our Underperform rating for the stock with a TP of Rs110.
  • Furthermore, any reduction in regulatory duty in the upcoming budget (from 22%-26% currently to 15% or less) given to the local industry, may create pressure on sales volumes from dumping of cheaper products in the country.
  • We consider resumption of dividend payout and announcement of any Capex or investment plan as key triggers for the stock going forward. To highlight, PABC stands at net cash position of Rs10.7bn (Mar-2025).
Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW) held its analyst briefing to discuss 9MFY25 results and its future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • To recall, company posted topline of PkR81.4bn in 9MFY25 vs PkR34.6bn in 9MFY24, an increase of 2.4xYoY. The said increase is primarily attributed to higher volumetric sales of four wheelers, particularly HAVAL.
  • Company posted earnings of PkR12.9bn (EPS: PkR212.7) in 9MFY25, compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR73.6) in SPLY, an increase of 2.9xYoY.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power cement Ltd. (POWER) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key points:
  • To recall, company posted profit of PkR348mn (EPS: PkR0.07) in 9MFY25 compared to a loss of PkR1.2bn (LPS: PkR1.41) in SPLY. The said improvement in profitability was primarily attributable to lower financial charges (down 35%YoY) during the period amidst falling interest rates and improved operating efficiencies.
  • Company’s total offtakes for 9MFY24 decreased by 19%YoY to 1.7mn tons. This was due to decrease in clinker exports amid falling prices in the international market. Avg. export prices for clinker during the period stood at ~US$30-31/ton
Pakistan Power: Power Generation up 25%YoY in Apr'25 - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power generation for Apr’25 clocked in at 10,513GWh, marking an increase of 22%YoY/25% MoM. The rise is driven by elevated cooling demand amid rising temperatures and reduced reliance on captive generation by industries. Key contributors to the power mix during the month were Coal, Hydel, RLNG, and Nuclear sources.
  • Notably, authorities imposed a levy of PkR791/mmbtu on gas-based CPPs during Mar'25, raising gas tariff to PkR4,291/mmbtu. This translates into a significantly higher effective generation cost of ~PkR42/kwh, assuming a thermal efficiency of 35% for off-grid captives utilizing natural gas. The sharp increase in generation cost likely prompted industries to shift towards relatively cheaper grid electricity in the near term, in light of recent reductions in grid tariffs, which is estimated at ~PkR28/kwh (excluding taxes and duties).
  • More positively, the cost of generation declined by 5%YoY/8%MoM to PkR8.95/kWh, compared to PkR9.75/kWh in Apr’24, reflecting improved fuel economics. On a cumulative basis, total power generation during 10MFY25 stood at 100,648GWh, broadly unchanged YoY.
Economy: IMF projects considerable improvement in external position despite softer growth outlook - By AKD Research

May 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • IMF acknowledges that authorities met all quantitative performance criteria and majority of the indicative criteria and structural benchmarks.
  • The baseline macroeconomic projections reflect a moderately lower outlook for near-term activity, due to the impact of higher US tariffs on Pakistan.
  • The IMF program remained fully financed, with firm commitments for the next 12 months and good prospects for the reminder of the Fund-supported program.
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity to set stage for E&P activity revival - By AKD Research

May 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • The government has provisionally allocated 13 new onshore exploration blocks under the DGPC Bid Round 2025.
  • Recent bouts of gas price rationalization has finally enabled local E&P companies to pursue long-delayed development strategies.
  • Improvement in security measures are anticipated to aid in E&P sector growth, backed by initiation of SIFC-led mining activities and CPEC Phase-II.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): MARI discovers gas at Soho-1 in Sujawal Block, Sindh - By AKD Research

May 9 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has announced a gas discovery at the exploratory well Soho-1, located in the Sujawal Block, Sindh. The company (100% working interest), successfully tested across two formations, with gas flow reaching 30mmcfd at a 64” choke. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR5.0/sh (8% of FY26E earnings).
Economy: Fiscal Operations: Fiscal deficit narrows by 24%YoY in 9MFY25 - By AKD Research

May 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Finance division reported consolidated fiscal accounts for 3QFY25, reporting a quarterly budget deficit of PkR1.4tn (1.2% of GDP), compared to a deficit of PkR1.5tn (1.4% of GDP) in SPLY. Cumulatively, country’s 9MFY25 budget deficit amounted to PkR3.0tn (2.4% of GDP), down 24%YoY.
  • Total revenues grew by 23%YoY during 3QFY25, led by increases in tax revenue, which grew by 26%YoY, while non-tax revenues also improved by 7%YoY. Rise in tax revenues was led by increase in direct taxes (↑21%YoY) and sales tax (↑33%YoY), while non-tax revenues surged due to higher collection from Petroleum Levy (↑15%YoY) and three-fold increase in dividends from SOEs during the quarter.
  • Notably, total expenditures rose by 14%YoY during the quarter, although markup payments remained unchanged at PkR1.3tn, possibly due to declining interest rates, partially offsetting the impact of higher debt levels (GoP total debt: PkR73.0tn, up 13%YoY as of Feb'25).
Pakistan Cement: Apr'25 dispatches improve amid low base - By AKD Research

May 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cement dispatches for Apr’25 clocked in at 3.34mn tons, an increase of 13%YoY, driven by 8%YoY surge in local offtakes, while exports increased by 35%YoY.
  • We believe, MRPs in the South are likely to rise to match those in the North. As a result, South based players are expected to be the primary beneficiaries.
  • Our preferred picks from the sector remain LUCK & FCCL with Dec’25 target prices of PkR393/sh and PkR61/sh, respectively
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): 1QCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) held its corporate briefing session today to discuss 1QCY25 financial results and future outlook. Key takeaways from the call are as follows:
  • Company reported earnings of PkR13.3bn (PkR9.3/sh) in 1QCY25, compared to PkR10.5bn (PkR8.3/sh) in SPLY. The growth in profitability is attributed to i) improved gross margins amid the absence of high-cost imported urea, and ii) higher DAP volumes due to the inclusion of FFBL figures.
  • The fertilizer business contributed PkR8.1bn in profitability, along with PkR2.0bn and PkR3.2bn stemming from dividend and portfolio income, respectively
Nishat Mills Ltd. (NML): 3QFY25 Result Review — Profitability remains positive but fall short of expectations - By AKD Research

Apr 30 2025


AKD Securities


  • Nishat Mills Ltd. (NML) announced its 3QFY25 financial results, reporting standalone earnings of PkR696mn (EPS: PkR1.98), compared to a loss of PkR286mn (LPS: PkR0.81) in SPLY. The result was below our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected gross margins.
  • Revenue increased by 5%YoY to PkR45.3bn, compared to PkR43.3bn in SPLY, driven by higher export volumes and improved pricing. Notably, readymade garment exports rose 13%YoY during 3QFY25, as per PBS.
  • Gross margins improved to 10.4%, up from 8.9% in SPLY, supported by higher export prices and lower power costs, on the back of declining coal prices and reduced grid tariffs. However, margins remained below our expectations, and we await further clarity on that.