Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF): Playing the long game – By Insight Research

Jan 1 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple leaf cement, one of the giants in cement industry, continues to exhibit a strong core business, supported by its strong focus on cost optimization, through diverse fuel mix and increasing reliance on renewable energy in its power mix. However, the cement industry’s profitability is volatile due to cyclical nature of cement demand, influenced by the country’s recurring economic boom & bust cycles. To note, cement industry utilization has remained below 60% for the past 2 years, showcasing longevity of economic trough with no foreseeable catalyst to boost demand. To counter this inherent cyclicality, the company is strategically diversifying into stable businesses. MLCF is venturing into the hospital business and pursuing the acquisition of a fertilizer company, both of which offer more stability than cement business.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on MLCF with DCF based TP of PKR59/sh for Dec’25, providing 29% capital upside from last closing price. Our liking for the stock stems from the following facts i) Continuous focus toward operational efficiencies, ii) Investments in hospital and fertilizer business, iii) Trading at an attractive EV/ton and iv) Strong balance sheet.
  • Key risks to our investment thesis include: i) Slowdown in construction activity ii) Stiff price competition , iii) Increase in coal prices, iv) Higher than expected hike in energy prices and v) Change in regulatory environment.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF): Result Review: MLCF 3QFY25 EPS Rs2.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.8bn (EPS Rs2.7) as compared to earnings of Rs1.5bn (EPS of Rs1.4) during the same period last year, up by 86%YoY. The result came above our estimate mainly due to lower effective taxation during the quarter.
  • During 3QFY25, MLCF’s topline clocked in at Rs16.6bn, up by 4%YoY. Despite the decline in volumetric sales (down 9%YoY), higher topline is driven by better retention prices during the period.
  • MLCF’s gross margin clocked in at 35% during 3QFY25 as compared to 30% during the last year. This elevated gross margin is due to 1) Improved retention prices 2) Lower coal cost and 3) Efficient coal mix.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings beat expectation on lower tax - By IIS Research

Apr 23 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 2.8bn (EPS: PKR 2.64) compared to PKR 1.5bn (EPS: PKR 1.44) in the same period last year, reflecting a 2x YoY increase. This strong performance was driven by improved gross margins and a lower effective tax rate.
  • The company’s topline grew by 4% YoY to PKR 16.6bn, mainly due to higher bag prices. However, revenue declined by 13% QoQ, owing to a 10% drop in total dispatches and a 5% QoQ decline in prices.
  • Gross margins stood at 36% compared to 30% in the same period last year, benefiting from an efficient fuel mix, increased use of alternative fuels and a decline in coal prices. On a QoQ basis, it declined by 400 bps.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): 3QFY25 Result Review — Higher prices and lower taxation lift earnings - By AKD Research

Apr 23 2025


AKD Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF) announced its 3QFY25 financial results, posting consolidated earnings of PkR2.8bn (EPS: PkR2.67), up 86%YoY compared to PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR1.44) in SPLY. Earnings came in above our expectations, primarily due to higher-thanexpected revenue and a lower taxation charge.
  • Revenue clocked in at PkR16.6bn, an increase of 4%YoY from PkR16.0bn in SPLY, supported by 5%YoY rise in company offtakes. Notably, revenue exceeded expectations, possibly due to higher-than-anticipated sales of ‘hdPutty’.
  • Gross margins improved by 5.6ppt YoY to 35.5%, driven by elevated cement prices and lower coal costs
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): 3QFY25 Consolidated EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.7, PAT down 25%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 3QFY25 (Consolidated) – EPS: PKR 2.7, PAT: ~PKR 2.8Bn, down 25%QoQ – in line with our expectations.
  • MLCF’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 16.6Bn in 3QFY25, down 13%QoQ due to decrease in overall dispatches by 6%QoQ (Domestic and Export dispatches plunged by 2% and 61%, respectively). Gross margin hovered at ~35%, down 5pptsQoQ mainly due to lower overall retail prices in the North Region and higher cost of production. Distribution and Admin expenses fell by 26%QoQ and 20%QoQ, respectively. 3QFY25 PAT arrived at PKR 2.8Bn, down 25%QoQ mainly due to lower dispatches compared to the previous quarter. Lastly, the Company did not announce a cash dividend for the quarter.
Maple Leaf Cement Limited (MLCF): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR2.67 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 23 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple Leaf cement has announced its 3QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR2.8bn (EPS: PKR2.7) vs. PAT of PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR1.4) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to lower effective tax rate.
  • In 3QFY25, revenue increased by 4% YoY mainly due to higher volumetric sales and better retention price. While on QoQ, same is down by 13% amid lower offtakes and retention price.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 35%, up by ~5.5ppts YoY, due to decline in coal prices and reliance on cheaper fuel mix. While on sequential basis, same is down by ~4.7ppts due to lower retention prices.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Maple Leaf Cement is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 2,067 million (EPS: PKR 1.97) for 3QFY25, reflecting an impressive 83% YoY increase.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 16,711 million, up 5%YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 34.6%, up 6.6ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy—20 MW solar power projects and 37 MW capacity through the Waste Heat Recovery Power Plant (WHRP)—has contributed to this margin expansion.
Pakistan Cement: MLCF, CHCC & DGKC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF), D.G Khan Cement Company Ltd (DGKC), and Cherat Cement Company Ltd (CHCC).
  • We expect MLCF and CHCC to post earnings of Rs1.85/share and Rs7.9/share, reflecting a YoY growth of 71% and 24% respectively, primarily driven by improved margins and higher other income. Likewise, DGKC is projected to report EPS of Rs3.7, up 37% YoY, supported by higher dispatches (+36%) and notable reduction in financial charges due to easing.
  • Cement prices in the North region continue to recover, rising Rs120/bag since late Feb-2025, which is likely to bode well for all three companies. Nevertheless, a potential increase in limestone royalty charge bringing it in-line with Punjab players is expected to weigh on earnings for CHCC with a potential negative impact of Rs9.5/sh on our FY26 earnings forecast
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings surge 3x QoQ on Higher Sales - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 3.7bn (EPS: PKR 3.57) vs. PKR 1.3bn (EPS: PKR 1.28) in the previous quarter, reflecting a 3x QoQ increase. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to higher than projected revenue and gross margins.
  • The company’s topline grew by 21% QoQ to PKR 19bn, likely driven by 17% QoQ increase in total dispatches and improved export prices. On a YoY basis, revenue went up by 5%, supported by higher bag prices despite a 6% YoY decline in dispatches.
  • Gross margins stood at 40% compared to 32% in the previous quarter, benefiting from improved margins on white cement, an efficient fuel mix, and a decline in coal prices.
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs3.57, up by 66% YoY (Earnings higher than expectations) - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • MLCF announced its 2QFY25 result today, where the company recorded consolidated earnings of Rs3.7bn (EPS of Rs3.57), up by 66% YoY and by 178% QoQ.
  • The result came higher than expectations in 2QFY25 due to higher-than-expected gross margins and higher than expected other income.
  • Alongside the result, the company did not announce any cash dividend which is as per expectations.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF): 2QFY25 Result Review — Higher retention & lower taxes lift earning - By AKD Research

Feb 20 2025


AKD Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 financial results, reporting consolidated profitability of PkR3.7bn (EPS: PkR3.6), up 67%YoY compared to PkR2.2bn (EPS: PkR2.1) in SPLY. Earnings came above our expectations due to higher-than anticipated gross margins, elevated other income, and lower taxation.
  • Revenue clocked in at PkR19.0bn in 2QFY25, up 5%YoY from PkR18.0bn in SPLY, as higher retention prices outweighed the impact of 6%YoY decline in offtakes. Betterthan-expected retention prices were likely driven by increased sales of white cement and hdPutty.
  • Gross margins improved to 39.8% from 35.3% in SPLY, mainly on the back of aforementioned higher retention prices and a decline in weighted avg. coal prices
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
MARI Petroleum Company (MARI): Corporate Briefing Session - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • MARI Petroleum Company (MARI PA) has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing.
  • During 9MFY25, MARI has posted net sales and PAT of PKR132.3bn and PKR46.3bn (EPS: PKR38.6), down by 7% and 10% YoY, respectively. The decrease in earnings is mainly attributable to lower production due to forced curtailment.
  • Company’s production clocked in at 29.32MMBOE in 9MFY25, down by 2% YoY.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Energy chain Fixed charges hiked by 50% - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent announcement, OGRA announced 50% hike in fixed charges for both protected and non-protected domestic consumers. Households consuming up to 1.5hm/month will now pay PKR1,500 up from PKR1,000, while higher consumption slabs will face fixed charges of PKR3,000 up from PKR2,000. Protected consumers will also see a rise in fixed charges, from PKR400 to PKR600 per month. Meanwhile, gas tariffs for the power sector have increased from PKR1,050/mmbtu to PKR1,225/mmbtu, and for general industry (process), rates have gone up ~7% to PKR2,300/mmbtu.
  • The energy sector has been on a cash flow recovery path over the past years, supported by policy reforms aimed at improving financial sustainability. A key driver has been the rationalization of tariffs, further aided by fixed monthly charges for residential consumers, which has helped Sui companies to reduce revenue shortfalls. Additionally, the inclusion of RLNG diversion costs in tariff structures has further eased cash flow constraints across the value chain. These reforms have translated into a sharp recovery in receivables for upstream players, with PPL and OGDC recording improved recovery rates of 88% and 90% in 9MFY25, up from 53% and 49% in the same period last year. However, this trend reversed slightly in the latest quarter, likely due to forced curtailments triggered by higher LNG imports. We believe the hike in fixed charges would negate the impact of higher LNG imports.
Economy: Jun’25 CPI likely to clock in at 3.2% - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~3.2% for Jun’25, compared to ~12.6% in SPLY and ~3.5% in preceding month. This will take FY25 average inflation to ~4.6% compared to 23.9% in FY24. On MoM basis, inflation is likely to inch up by ~0.2% MoM, mainly driven by ~0.4% housing index due to higher monthly FCA. On the flip side, food basket is expected to depict a decline of ~0.5% MoM, amid decline in prices of chicken price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomatoes (59.3↑%), Potatoes (26.4↑%), Eggs (7.4%↑), Fresh fruits (5.7%↑) & Onions (5.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Chicken (32.5%↓), Fresh vegetables (12.2%↓), LPG (6.6%↓), Vegetable ghee (0.4%↓) & Cooking oil (0.4%↓).
  • The FY26 budget continues the fiscal consolidation path pursued over the past couple of years, under the guidance of the IMF. The budget is broadly noninflationary, with minimal changes to the taxation structure and no significant new taxes, except for some adjustments in petroleum related levies. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to remain within the SBP’s target range of 5%–7%. Based on our estimates, average inflation for FY26 is projected at around 5.4%, assuming no major shocks to the domestic supply chain or global commodity prices. However, the recently announced increase in fixed charges for domestic gas consumers is expected to be inflationary. With gas holding a weight of ~1.1% in the urban CPI basket, we estimate this hike will lead to a ~23% MoM increase in the gas index, translating into a ~0.85bps uptick in headline inflation. On interest rate front, we expect the SBP to maintain status quo, as the full transmission of 11ppts reduction in policy rate has yet to be reflected in real economy.
Fertilizer: Phosphatic fertilizer prices takes off -- By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • The global price of di -ammonium phosphate (DAP), the second most consumed fertilizer after urea, has increased by over 18 % since the beginning of 2025 , reaching US $720/ton . This rise is driven by several factors, including supply -side challenges due to China's export restrictions , higher energy costs, geopolitical tensions and strong demand particularly due to seasonal agricultural activity . The price spike was further accelerated by geopolitical event post Israeli attack on Iran's gas infrastructure, which also disrupted fertilizer markets .
  • Despite the sharp increase in DAP prices, the cost of key raw materials like phosphoric acid and phosphate rock has remained relatively stable . With gas prices fixed for local manufacturers, this expansion in margins significantly benefits DAP & NP producers, helping them to neutralize some of the impact of lower urea volumes caused by unfavorable agronomic conditions . Historically, we have seen that NP prices have a strong correlation with DAP . Given that, companies engaged in DAP & NP production are more favorably positioned in the current environment . We highlight FFC and FATIMA are well positioned to play this pricing trend.
  • The DAP market has experienced a significant price rally in recent months, with prices surging by ~18 % since the beginning of the year, reaching US $720/ton in Jun’25 . This increase has been driven by a combination of factors, including supply shortages, geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and stronger demand from regional markets .
Pakistan Textile: After the hit, a hint of relief - By Insight Research

Jun 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • Despite facing challenging times, Pakistan’s textile sector remained resilient with value added sector depicting healthy volumetric growth and overall sector contributing ~56% to total exports in 11MFY25. However, listed players has underperformed the index as operating environment was not very conducive for the sector, mainly due to elevated energy costs, shift to the normal tax regime and policy lapses for local industries. Additionally, subdued demand from the European market kept prices under pressure and local cotton production has fallen significantly by ~34% compared to SPLY, forcing the industry to rely more on imported cotton, which ultimately hurt the spinning sector.
  • Despite ongoing challenges, we believe most textile stocks are trading at a discount and offers attractive valuations compared to historical multiples. Recent developments such as sharp interest rate cuts, reduction in electricity tariffs coupled with the potential shift in global trade amid US tariffs, may induce a gradual recovery for textile sector. Within our coverage, ILP and NML remain our top picks.
  • Pakistan, which directs ~17%–18% of its total exports and ~25% of its textile exports to the U.S. market, remains relatively well-positioned compared to regional peers under the current U.S. tariff structure. For reference, Pakistan’s tariff rate stands at (29%), while competing countries face higher effective tariffs rates, including China (145%), Bangladesh (37%), Vietnam (46%), and Sri Lanka (44%).
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept policy rate unchanged at 11%, inline with market expectations. The committee noted that inflation recorded an uptick to clock in at ~3.5% in May’25, as expected and is likely to inch up in coming months and stabilize in target range during FY26. The impact of policy rate cut is kicking in as reflected in improved economic activity. The committee highlighted that trade deficit and shortfalls in planned inflows posses risk to external account. The MPC further elaborated that some of the actions announced in budget might have negative impact on trade balance.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes provisional GDP growth of 2.7% for FY25 and ambitious growth target of 4.2% for FY26, successful disbursement of US$1bn from IMF after completion of first review of EFF program, revised estimate of primary deficit at 2.2% of GDP and some decline in agriculture output compared to initial estimates.
  • Overall, MPC believes the current real policy rate is sufficiently positive to keep inflation within the target range of 5%–7%. However, timely receipt of planned inflows, achieving targeted fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms are crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Moreover, fluid geopolitical situation and its impact on oil prices will remain a key variable for Pakistan.
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • PSO has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing
  • Regarding power circular debt resolution, management highlighted that there is no clarity on the amount PSO will receive post this settlement.
  • On market share, the company mentioned that it declined due to rising competition and discount offered by competitors. Management expect 3%- 5% growth in retail fuel offtake in FY26.

Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Oil Marketing Companies: OGRA approves ERR for sui companies - By Insight Research

May 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, OGRA has decided a 6.6% increase in gas prices for SNGPL, while reducing SSGCL prices by 5.9%, effective from July’25. OGRA has submitted its decision to the federal government for the issuance of a formal notification outlining category wise consumer gas prices. As per legal requirements, the federal government is expected to finalize the category-wise pricing within 40 days. We believe that the impact of consumers will be marginal due to minimal hike in overall prices. However, RLNG diversion volume remains a key component to look for.
  • OGRA approves meager increase for SNGPL; price set at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU The OGRA has issued its decision on SNGPL petition, where OGRA approved a tariff increase of PKR116.9/MMBTU, setting the prescribed price at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU, which represents a 6.6% increase from the current rate against SNGPL's request for an increase of PKR707/MMBTU. This revised revenue requirement stems from a PKR62.2bn downward adjustment in operating expenses, wherein major deviations stems from adjustment in cost of gas and the disallowance of PKR95.9bn on account of late payment surcharge. Notably, OGRA based its calculations on different oil price and exchange rate assumptions of PKR75.3/bbl for crude and PKR280/US$. SNGPL, in contrast, assumed PKR77/bbl, and PKR287.5/US$, respectively. Furthermore, OGRA revised the RLNG volume downwards to 75,556 MMCF, compared to SNGPL's projected 88,185 MMCF. This adjustment is due to confirmation from PLL that arrangements have been made with ENI to divert cargoes outside Pakistan from Jul’25 to Dec’25. Additionally, while SNGPL had requested PKR317.7/MMBTU for RLNG cost of services for the year, OGRA approved PKR210/MMBTU. This adjustment assumes a reduced RLNG input volume of 325,677 MMBTU, against SNGPL's projected 343,960 MMBTU, amid aforementioned diversion.
  • OGRA has finalized its decision on SSGCL’s petition for FY2025–26, against SSGCL's proposed hike of PKR2,399/MMBTU to bridge a revenue shortfall of PKR888.6bn (including PKR498.7bn from prior years), OGRA has instead recommended a reduction of PKR103.95/MMBTU. This brings the prescribed price down to PKR1,658.56/MMBTU, a 5.9% decrease. OGRA has revised SSGCL’s net revenue requirement down to PKR319.9bn with only PKR34.2bn allowed as prior year adjustment. Major downward revisions include PKR62.2bn in operating expenses. OGRA’s estimates factor in PKR75/bbl for oil and PKR280/US$, contrasting with SSGCL’s assumptions of PKR72.5/bbl and PKR292.
Economy: Ceasefire Ignites Investor Confidence in PSX - By Insight Research

May 12 2025


Insight Securities


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a market-wide trading halt today as the KSE-100 Index skyrocketed by 9,475 points (+8.84%) to close at 116,650.12, triggering the index-based halt mechanism on the upside. The rally was driven by a powerful combination of regional peace prospects, fresh IMF disbursements, and improving global trade sentiment following the resolution of the U.S.-China tariff standoff.
  • The Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both nations met today at 12:00 PM to formalize and reinforce the recently agreed ceasefire.
  • The diplomatic engagement is being seen as a major de-escalation step, improving regional security outlook and investor sentiment.
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