Pakistan Economy: Economic Survey FY25 – Laying groundwork for sustained growth - By JS Researrch

Jun 10 2025

JS Global Capital

• Pakistan Economic Survey for FY25 was released yesterday, presented by Finance Minister along with Finance Secretary and other key government officials.

• The survey offers a comprehensive analysis of the country's economic performance during FY25 highlighting the emergence of a disinflationary trend. This trend can be attributed to contained current account balance (lower imports, stable global commodity prices, improved flows from exports & higher remittances) and reduced gap between the interbank and open market forex rates.

• On the fiscal front, consolidation continued in FY25, underpinned by strong revenue growth and improved spending efficiency. As a result, the fiscal deficit declined to 2.6% of GDP, while the primary surplus rose to 3.0% as per latest figures.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Post breakout consolidation expected - By JS Research

Jun 10 2025

JS Global Capital

• The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 121,641, down 158 points DoD. Volumes stood at 855mn shares compared to 711mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test resistance at 122,282 (Thursday’s high) where a break above targeting 123,375 which may later rise to 125,947. However, any downside will find support within 121,050-121,350 range. The indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We advise investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 121,345 and 122,109, respectively.

Pakistan Economy: Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 Highlights - By AHCML Research

Jun 10 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

• GDP Growth: 2.68% in FY25 (FY24: 2.51%), driven by industrial (4.77%) and services (2.91%) sectors.

• Inflation: Sharply fell to 0.3% in Apr’25 due to monetary tightening, stable food supplies, and lower global commodity prices.

• Fiscal Discipline: Primary surplus of 3.0% of GDP (FY24: 1.5%) and first fiscal surplus in 24 years (Q1 FY25: PKR 1.896 tn).

Morning News: Rs17.6 trillion budget to be presented today - By HMFS Research

Jun 10 2025

HMFS Research

• The federal budget 2025-26 will be unveiled by Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday (today) in parliament. The budget size has been envisaged at Rs17.6 trillion against Rs18.78 trillion for the last fiscal year. The FBR’s tax collection target has been envisaged at Rs14.02 trillion for the next budget against revised estimates of Rs12.33 trillion for the outgoing fiscal year. However, it will be really hard for the FBR to display the revised target of Rs12.332 trillion on June 30, 2025. With expectations of 7.5 to 10 per cent increase in salaries of public sector employees, the Ministry of Finance has prepared four proposals for increasing pay and pension ranging from 5 to 12.5 per cent. The Ministry of Finance wants to restrict this increase in the range of 7.5 to 10 per cent in the next budget. Disparity Allowance up to 30 per cent is expected to be provided for grade 1 to 16.

• Pakistan missed its GDP growth target of 3.6% in the outgoing fiscal year, posting a figure of 2.7%, revealed the Economic Survey 2024-25, unveiled by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday. Commenting on the global economy, Aurangzeb, former head of one of Pakistan’s largest commercial banks, noted that the global GDP growth in 2023 stood at 3.5%, which was reduced to 3.3% in 2024 and is now projected to be 2.8% according to the latest estimates. “GDP growth in 2023 stood at -0.2%, which grew to 2.5% in FY24. We announce a 2.7% GDP growth for FY25,” said Aurangzeb.

• The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has almost finalized Finance Bill (2025-26) and expected to announce new taxation measures of nearly Rs 200 billion of sales tax and Federal Excise Duty (FED) in the fiscal budget (2025-26). The revenue generation measures may include 18 percent sales tax on the import of solar panels. Among other proposals, 18 percent sales tax would be imposed on e-commerce. The FBR has finalized items which would be deleted from the Sixth Schedule (Exemption Schedule) and Eighth Schedule-lower rate of sales tax of the Sales Tax Act. The government my increase sales tax rate on a large number of items subjected to lower rate of sales tax or concessionary sales tax rates in coming budget (2025-26).

Morning News: Pakistan secures over $1.5 billion for climate action amid rising environmental pressures - By Vector Research

Jun 10 2025

Vector Securities

• Amid intensifying climate risks, Pakistan has mobilized over $1.5 billion in climate finance to combat environmental degradation and build resilience, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25. The funding includes $1.4 billion under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and $82 million from the Green Climate Fund, alongside the launch of a Rs30 billion Green Sukuk and the National Climate Finance Strategy.

• The federal budget 2025-26 will be unveiled by Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday (today) in parliament. The budget size has been envisaged at Rs17.6 trillion against Rs18.78 trillion for the last fiscal year. The FBR’s tax collection target has been envisaged at Rs14.02 trillion for the next budget against revised estimates of Rs12.33 trillion for the outgoing fiscal year. However, it will be really hard for the FBR to display the revised target of Rs12.332 trillion on June 30, 2025.

• The federal government is preparing for a challenging fiscal year ahead, with a proposed budget deficit of Rs 6.2 trillion, or 4.8% of GDP, for the upcoming fiscal year 2025-26. The total size of the budget is expected to be around Rs 17.6 trillion, which is 7.3% lower than this year’s original budget due to reduced allocations for interest payments.

Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGP): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 5 2025

Taurus Securities

• SNGP, largest integrated natural gas utility in Pakistan, posted a record profit of ~PKR 18.97Bn in FY24, supported by all-time high sales of ~PKR 1Bn.

• Pakistan’s energy mix includes 30% natural gas (69% from SNGP, 31% from SSGC), 11% RLNG, 21% oil, 15% coal, 12% hydropower, 7% nuclear, and 4% from LPG and renewables combined.

• SNGPs ownership is split between 32% direct and 42% indirect Government holding, with the remaining 26% held by the public and others.

Autos: May-2025 sales to record highest levels since Dec-2022 - By JS Research

Jun 5 2025

JS Global Capital

• We preview automobile sales volumes for May-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd, representing 84% of the four-wheeler market, to post a major volumetric growth of 44%/49% YoY/MoM, reaching ~13.3k units.

• INDU and HCAR are expected to lead monthly growth with volumes up 2.4x and 69% YoY, respectively. The 49% MoM increase is largely due to delivery delays led by protest on highways over canal projects. Overall, we anticipate a 38% YoY growth for our sample in 11MFY25.

• We highlight key risks in the FY26 budget to include a potential carbon tax on petrol vehicles, reduced average tariffs on imported cars, extension of used car import age limit from 3 to 5 years, and higher sales tax on vehicles up to 800cc – all of which could significantly impact the auto industry sales.

Economy: Pre-Budget FY26 Market Sentiments - By Chase Research

Jun 5 2025

• Chase Securities conducted a pre-budget survey in the run up to the annual budget announcement.

• A total of 44 participants provided their insights on key issues.

• We believe that these insights are key to identifying market sentiments and gauging the confidence in the equity market.

• 27% of the participants expect KSE-100 to be above 150,000 points by the end of June 2026.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jun 5 2025

JS Global Capital

• Bulls continued to dominate the session as the KSE-100 Index gained 1,348 points DoD, closing at the 121,799 level. Trading volumes stood at 711mn shares, up from 578mn shares previously. We believe a break above 121,882 (yesterday’s high) will sustain the uptrend, with 123,375 and 125,947 as the next targets. On the downside, support is seen between 120,900 and 121,170, with a break below this range likely to trigger a corrective phase. Both the RSI and MACD are trending upward, reinforcing a positive outlook. We recommend investors 'Buy on dips,' while keeping a stop-loss below the 120,896 level. The support and resistance are at 121,169 and 122,155, respectively.

Morning News: Pakistan, ADB sign $300m ‘Subprogram II’ loan - By WE Reserach

Jun 5 2025

• The government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a $300 million loan agreement under the “Improved Resource Mobilization and Utilization Reform Programme (Subprogramme-II),” aimed at supporting Pakistan’s macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation through structural reforms in trade, revenue generation, and capital market development. The agreement, signed by Dr. Kazim Niaz and ADB Country Director Emma Fan, is part of a broader $800 million financing package that includes a $500 million Policy Based Guarantee (PBG) to help raise $1 billion in commercial financing, reinforcing Pakistan’s efforts toward economic recovery and sustainability.

• At a lively early Independence Day celebration hosted by the US Embassy in Islamabad, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a “new era” in US-Pakistan relations, emphasizing shared democratic values and historical ties dating back to 1947. Speaking to a crowd of political leaders, diplomats, and civil society members, Sharif acknowledged America’s longstanding development support while highlighting Pakistan’s heavy sacrifices in the fight against terrorism—over 90,000 lives lost and $150 billion in economic damage. He also criticized India over a recent conflict, calling the Pahalgam incident a false-flag operation and accusing New Delhi of civilian targeting, while affirming Pakistan’s military response. Despite tensions, Sharif expressed a desire for regional peace and praised former US President Trump for his role in de-escalating hostilities. Acting US Ambassador Natalie Baker echoed the spirit of partnership, speaking in Urdu and highlighting shared values and mutual respect.

• Pakistan’s finance team is in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to maintain the current 5% Federal Excise Duty (FED) on fertilisers and drop a proposed 5% FED on pesticides in the 2025–26 budget, following intervention by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The Prime Minister has also directed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to reassess the proposed import tariff rationalisation plan to prevent negative impacts on the import bill. While the IMF appears to have relented on fertiliser and pesticide taxes after Pakistan argued these could hurt agricultural productivity—especially alongside the introduction of the Agriculture Income Tax (AIT)—it remains firm on imposing General Sales Tax (GST) in the formerly exempt FATA/PATA regions. Despite previous political efforts to preserve the exemption, a reduced GST rate of 12% is now expected to be implemented there in the upcoming fiscal year.