Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Positives are largely priced in Downgraded to HOLD - By Topline Research

Mar 11 2025


Topline Securities


  • We downgrade our previous BUY stance on Millat Tractors (MTL) to HOLD as we believe positive pertaining to clearance of backlog of dividend, current Punjab tractor scheme, and rescind of SRO 563(1)/2022 are priced-in in the share price of the company. Government of Punjab announced subsidized scheme of 9500 tractors for farmers of province of Punjab, a major portion of it is already delivered, in our view.
  • EPS expected at Rs48/59 in FY25/26: We expect company to post earnings of Rs48/59 per share in FY25/26. The earnings are likely to grow 23% in FY26 due to low base effect of volumetric sales in 1Q of FY25. We expect company to witness sales growth of 24% with unit sales reaching at 31,500 in FY26F from 25,407 in FY25E.
  • We have assumed gross margins of 25.8% and 25.5% in FY25 and FY26 for tractor business, respectively after taking cue from 2QFY25 results.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs15.86, up by 3% YoY – Earnings in-line with expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein the company recorded profit of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs15.86), up 3% YoY. On QoQ basis, earnings significantly increased by 434%. This takes 1H2025 earnings to Rs3.6bn (EPS of Rs19.01), down 31% YoY vs Rs5.2bn (EPS of Rs27.36) in 1H2024.
  • Though earnings were largely in line with expectations, however, gross margins have clocked in at lower than our estimates and were compensated by tax reversal.
  • Gross margins recorded at 25.4% in 2QFY25, down by ~350bps on QoQ basis despite higher sales. We attribute this decline in gross margins to higher sale under low priced/value Govt. scheme.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR 16, up 3%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 2QFY25: – EPS: PKR 16, DPS: PKR 45, PAT: ~PKR 19.5Bn, up 1.5xQoQ.
  • MTL’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 30.5Bn, up 1.5xQoQ, primarily due to surge in tractor sales, up 1.9xQoQ. Similarly, PAT arrived at ~PKR 3Bn up 3%YoY/ 4.3xQoQ; mainly due to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP, positioning MTL as a significant beneficiary of the program.
  • On quarterly basis, the finance cost remained unchanged whereas it rose 3.5xYoY compared to the SPLY.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 expected EPS of PKR 18.14, up 18%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 13 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: 19th February 2025
  • 2QFY25: – EPS: PKR 18.14, PAT: ~PKR 3.5Bn, up 5.1xQoQ.
  • MTL’s net sales are expected to clock-in at ~PKR 30.5Bn, up 27%YoY/2.9xQoQ, primarily due to surge in tractor sales, up 1.9xQoQ. Similarly, PAT is expected to arrive at ~PKR 3.5Bn up 18%YoY/ 5.1xQoQ; mainly due to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
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