Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Positives are largely priced in Downgraded to HOLD - By Topline Research

Mar 11 2025


Topline Securities


  • We downgrade our previous BUY stance on Millat Tractors (MTL) to HOLD as we believe positive pertaining to clearance of backlog of dividend, current Punjab tractor scheme, and rescind of SRO 563(1)/2022 are priced-in in the share price of the company. Government of Punjab announced subsidized scheme of 9500 tractors for farmers of province of Punjab, a major portion of it is already delivered, in our view.
  • EPS expected at Rs48/59 in FY25/26: We expect company to post earnings of Rs48/59 per share in FY25/26. The earnings are likely to grow 23% in FY26 due to low base effect of volumetric sales in 1Q of FY25. We expect company to witness sales growth of 24% with unit sales reaching at 31,500 in FY26F from 25,407 in FY25E.
  • We have assumed gross margins of 25.8% and 25.5% in FY25 and FY26 for tractor business, respectively after taking cue from 2QFY25 results.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs15.86, up by 3% YoY – Earnings in-line with expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein the company recorded profit of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs15.86), up 3% YoY. On QoQ basis, earnings significantly increased by 434%. This takes 1H2025 earnings to Rs3.6bn (EPS of Rs19.01), down 31% YoY vs Rs5.2bn (EPS of Rs27.36) in 1H2024.
  • Though earnings were largely in line with expectations, however, gross margins have clocked in at lower than our estimates and were compensated by tax reversal.
  • Gross margins recorded at 25.4% in 2QFY25, down by ~350bps on QoQ basis despite higher sales. We attribute this decline in gross margins to higher sale under low priced/value Govt. scheme.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR 16, up 3%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 2QFY25: – EPS: PKR 16, DPS: PKR 45, PAT: ~PKR 19.5Bn, up 1.5xQoQ.
  • MTL’s net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 30.5Bn, up 1.5xQoQ, primarily due to surge in tractor sales, up 1.9xQoQ. Similarly, PAT arrived at ~PKR 3Bn up 3%YoY/ 4.3xQoQ; mainly due to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP, positioning MTL as a significant beneficiary of the program.
  • On quarterly basis, the finance cost remained unchanged whereas it rose 3.5xYoY compared to the SPLY.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 2QFY25 expected EPS of PKR 18.14, up 18%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 13 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: 19th February 2025
  • 2QFY25: – EPS: PKR 18.14, PAT: ~PKR 3.5Bn, up 5.1xQoQ.
  • MTL’s net sales are expected to clock-in at ~PKR 30.5Bn, up 27%YoY/2.9xQoQ, primarily due to surge in tractor sales, up 1.9xQoQ. Similarly, PAT is expected to arrive at ~PKR 3.5Bn up 18%YoY/ 5.1xQoQ; mainly due to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Economy: May-25 CPI likely at 2.7%, base effect wears off - By JS Research

May 27 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May-2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%.
  • Due to the rapid disinflation during the year, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 averages 4.6%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 5.7%.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced policy rate to 11% in the last MPC meeting, owing to rapidly declining inflation. A further rate cut of 50-100bps cannot be ruled out in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Morning News: IMF in disagreement over key targets, subsidies - By Vector Research

May 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations.
  • Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran which stood at $3billion would be taken to $10 billion volume in the next few years, as there was immense potential of growth. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday departed to Iran after concluding his two-day official visit to Turkiye.
  • Despite projected remittance inflows of $38 billion in the current fiscal year (FY25), Pakistan’s per expatriate remittance remains significantly lower than that of peer countries. “Although remittances have grown at a compound annual rate of 6.1 per cent from 2013 to 2023, per expatriate remittance remains low in comparison to other countries in the region,” said a report released by the Policy Research and Advisory Council (PRAC) on Monday.
Morning News: Budget features bold measures for ‘strategic direction - By HMFS Research

May 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday pledged that the upcoming federal budget would introduce “bold measures” to steer the national economy in a strategic direction and make available whatever support is required by the armed forces. Further said that every possible support would be provided to the armed forces, stressing that it was a national need in light of recent cross-border aggression, not just a military requirement. He said the government would ensure simplified tax returns and forms for the salaried class. He said that around 70 to 80 percent of salaried people did not hold equity and fixed-income portfolios. “They receive salaries through bank accounts with tax deducted at source. They should not have to fill in 140-150 data points,” he said, adding that the government aimed to reduce that number to just nine — five for wealth tax and four for income tax. He said the process would now be accelerated, with transactions involving Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), three power distribution companies and some financial institutions expected to reach completion by the end of this year.
  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations. “The budget announcement has been delayed by a week because the Finance Ministry’s figures are still under reconciliation. The IMF has placed a cap on subsidies,” he added. He further noted that the IMF has declined to make any changes to the revised budget figures recently presented to the Fund’s team.
  • The government is seriously considering reducing federal excise duty (FED) on beverages (aerated water) in the coming budget (2025-26) to attract foreign investment in this sector. Foreign investors including Turkish investors have promised more foreign direct investment in beverage sector in case of tax relief in the coming budget (2025-26). Leading global players with Turkish and Korean franchise investors have invested over USD 2 billion in Pakistan since 2018. However, no new investments have been made since 2023 due to the current fiscal environment. The industry contributes over Rs 175 billion in taxes annually (FED, GST, income tax, super tax) - one of the highest taxed sectors.
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC): Exports outlook gets weaker; Reiterate Sell - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We tweak down our CY25E/CY26E EPS estimates for Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC) by 9% and TP by 4%. The revision is mainly led by the expected fall in volumes led by border issues with Afghanistan coupled with the upcoming capacity expansions in Central Asia, which may adversely impact PABC’s export prospects to the region. We reiterate our Underperform rating for the stock with a TP of Rs110.
  • Furthermore, any reduction in regulatory duty in the upcoming budget (from 22%-26% currently to 15% or less) given to the local industry, may create pressure on sales volumes from dumping of cheaper products in the country.
  • We consider resumption of dividend payout and announcement of any Capex or investment plan as key triggers for the stock going forward. To highlight, PABC stands at net cash position of Rs10.7bn (Mar-2025).
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): Dec’24 sales up 2.3xMoM – highest since Apr’18 – By Taurus Research

Jan 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • MTL’s sales for Dec’24 clocked-in at 4,686 units, highest since Apr’18, up 2.3xMoM. We attribute the sudden surge in sales primarily to the launch of the Green Tractor Scheme in Punjab. Wherein, the Punjab Government is likely to provide 9,500 tractors to farmers on a subsidy basis to the tune of PKR 1Mn; with locally manufactured tractors of 50HP to 85HP being eligible.
  • Accordingly, MTL with a ~60% market share of the domestic tractor market is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this scheme. News sources suggest that so far 3,973 tractors have been delivered, with the remaining expected to be delivered by Mar’25. Hence, MTL is likely to deliver another 3,000-3,500 tractors (based on a 60% market share) under the scheme until Mar’25.
  • Overall, PKR 30Bn has been allocated for the scheme, which translates into potential deliveries of ~30,000 tractors over the course of the entire scheme taking cue from the PKR 1Mn subsidy. Consequently, MTL may witness substantial growth in sales in 2HFY25 and FY26. However, we await further clarity on this.
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