Power: Dec’24: Power generation increases 1%YoY and decreases 3%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jan 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Power demand remained under pressure in Dec-2024, driven by record-high tariffs and a slowdown in industrial activity. Power generation during the month was recorded at 7,800GWh, reflecting a 1%YoY increase. However, power generation showed a decline compared to the prior month, which is typical for the winter season when demand drops.
  • For the 1HFY25, power generation dropped by 3%YoY, declining to 66,641GWh from 68,883GWh recorded SPLY.
  • Nuclear dominated the power generation mix in Dec-2024, contributing 26%, reflecting the Government's focus on cheaper energy sources. Hydel and RLNG followed with shares of 23% and 21%, respectively. However, coal’s contribution declined significantly, dropping to 12% from 19%MoM. Other sources, such as wind and solar, continued to have minimal contribution during the month, in the overall energy mix.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Cement: June’25 dispatches down 26%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jul 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total Cement dispatches in June’25 down 26%MoM on the back of lower construction demand and rise in geo-political conflict, declining exports i.e. domestic and export sales dropped by 29% MoM and 13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, total domestic sales were down 16% in June’25 as higher taxes along with higher FED and increase in the cost of construction materials has reduced construction demand compared to the SPLY. However, exports during June’25 surged massively by 82%YoY on account of increase in clinker and cement demand from the regional/exporting countries during the period.
  • North-based domestic sales decreased 26%MoM in June’25 due to decline in the construction activities amid bad weather conditions and lower construction demand. Wherein, export sales were down 14%MoM amid escalation of war in the MiddleEast. South-based domestic sales dropped significantly by 44% MoM in June’25. On the export front, South-based exports were down 13%MoM, respectively.
  • On a YoY basis, North-based domestic sales down 14%YoY in June’25 due to lower construction demand i.e. impact of higher taxes and surge in construction material cost. However, Northbased exports were up significantly by 91%YoY, reflecting higher demand from the export regions. On the South front, domestic sales during June’25 decreased by 23%YoY. However, export sales surged by 79%YoY to 0.65Mn tons, respectively.
Economy: Jun’25 Volumes surge 2%MoM, up 8%YoY - By Taurus Research

Jul 2 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Petroleum products off-take for Jun’25 stood at approximately 1.56Mn tons, reflecting a monthly growth of 2%. Similarly, on a yearly basis, sales were up 8%YoY. The increase in volumes on a MoM basis was primarily driven by lower POL prices along with controlled smuggling activities.
  • Specifically, volumes for MS increased 5%MoM and 5%YoY. HSD volumes grew 9%YoY growth but declined 8%MoM. However, FO sales increased 62%MoM but increased 22%YoY, primarily due to low RLNG consumption and excess of LNG supply and heightened electricity demand.
  • Moreover, FY25 saw a surge in POL sales which were up 7%YoY primarily due to higher demand for MS, HSD, HOBC and KERO, up 6%, 10%, 1.7x and 19%YoY, respectively.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL): Strong interest from potential buyers… Dec’25 TP of PKR 352, warrants a ‘BUY’ - By Taurus Research

Jun 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We reiterate our ’BUY’ rating for Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) with a Dec’25 target price of PKR 352/sh. offering an upside of 26% over the last day’s close. Our investment thesis primarily focuses on the Company’s strategic business advantages like: i) Presence in the South (2nd largest producer in the South) and the export market (15% share of Pakistan’s cement exports); and ii) Cost advantages (low dependence on the National Grid); coupled with an attractive valuation.
  • In addition, the location of the Company’s plant offers it immense strategic advantages like proximity to major projects like CPEC-Phase-II, Reko Diq and other mining & highway projects etc.; specially in the context of Balochistan, along with access to sea ports like Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar. Other triggers also include savings due to lower finance costs, going forward.
  • Moreover, recently the Company has also attracted strong interest from potential buyers in light of its sponsor’s intentions of a potential sale of the Company. The latter can be a strong catalyst for the current share price of the Company as it continues to trade at a massive discount on a replacement cost basis. Hence, a potential acquisition offer may be well above the current price.
TRG Pakistan Limited (TRG): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 25 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The principal activity of TRG Pakistan is to manage a portfolio of investments in the business process outsourcing sector through its associate, The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL). TRG Pakistan invests in the Technology, IT enabled services, and medicare insurance sectors. Its clients include companies from The Global 100. Through TRGIL, TRG Pakistan owns a 13% stake in both Afiniti and IBEX. Afiniti focuses on AI-based contact center optimization and IBEX specializes in outsourced customer interactions. Afiniti is controlled by Vista Lend Consortium. IBEX was listed on NASDAQ in 2020.
  • IBEX recorded 3QFY25 topline growth of 11%YoY at USD 540Mn, while 1QFY25 and 2QFY25 toplines recorded a growth of 4%YoY and 6%YoY, respectively. IBEX continues to outperform its peers with a 75% increase in its share price during the LTM, breaking the USD 30 level. Afiniti halved its senior debt by converting 50% of it into convertible preferred stock.
  • During 9MFY25, TRG recorded interest income of PKR 1.7Mn compared to PKR 1.8Mn during the SPLY. The Company recorded administrative and other expenses of PKR 456Mn compared to PKR 199Mn during the SPLY. This resulted in an operating loss of PKR 454Mn during 9MFY25 compared to PKR 196Mn during the SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: Jun’25 NCPI to arrive at 3.4%YoY/0.4%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jun 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect headline inflation for the month of Jun’25 to clock-in at 3.4%YoY owing to the base effect primarily, along with the sequential increase in food inflation and elevated core inflation. Hence, average inflation for FY25 is expected to touch-down at 4.7%YoY (down 19.3ppts over FY24).
  • During the month, we anticipate food prices to drive the general price level on the back of significant surge in prices of vegetables like Potatoes (up 20%MoM), Onions (up 8%MoM) & Tomatoes (up 30%MoM), mainly. This is expected to be offset by ~17% MoM fall in the price of Chicken (possibly due to lower consumption because of Eid) and stagnant or muted increase in the prices of other food items for the month.
  • However, Chicken prices are likely to increase in the coming months as the Government has proposed to impose a PKR 10 FED on one-day old chicks, as part of the Budget FY26.
Morning News: In another twist, Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire - By Taurus Research

Jun 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • US President Donald Trump said late on Monday that a ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran.
  • Pakistan has announced to extend its airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft for another month until July 23, 2025.
  • The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints —could deal a devastating blow to Pakistan’s already fragile economy, with soaring production, shipping, and insurance costs threatening industrial output, exports, and employment.
Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Limited (JDMT): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 20 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Ltd was incorporated in Pakistan as a Public Company in 1960. The Company is mainly engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of yarn.
  • In 9MFY25, sales clocked in at PKR 1.5Bn as compared to PKR 4.5Bn, down 67% over the SPLY mainly due to the suspension of production activities, weak demand, limited availability of cheaper imported yarn and inability to pass on price impact. The Company recorded gross loss of 29ppts arriving at -26% compared to 3% in the SPLY driven by the significant increase in its fuel & power costs from 18% to 20% during the period.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 218Mn compared to PKR 266Mn, down 18% over the SPLY driven by lower interest rate. Loss after tax arrived in at PKR 595Mn as compared to PKR 150Mn, up 3.0x over the SPLY primarily attributable to lower sale price of yarn and higher energy prices.
Economy: May’25 CAB posts a deficit of USD 103Mn - By Taurus Research

Jun 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Trade deficit continues to widen (up 16%MoM and 22% over the SPLY) as Pakistan’s CA posted a deficit of USD 103Mn during May’25. Goods exports fell 6% on a sequential basis. Whereas, goods imports increased 5%MoM. Services deficit recorded a contraction of 8% during the month to arrive at USD 2.7Bn in 11MFY25, up 1% over the corresponding period last year.
  • Remittances were the savior yet again, reflecting a growth of 16% over the previous month and 29% overall FYTD, clocking-in at USD 34.9Bn during 11MFY25. Consequently, 11MFY25 current account remains in a surplus of ~USD 1.8Bn. State Bank of Pakistan expects overall CAB for FY25 to post a sizeable surplus.
  • A dissection of the surge in imports shows that while petroleum imports posted a 7%MoM drop, machinery and transport group imports were up 17%MoM and 30%MoM, respectively. The latter is a strong indicator of uptick in economic activity. However, the situation poses a serious risk in case petroleum imports also surge on the back of soaring oil prices due to the evolving geopolitical situation. Resultantly, trade deficit is likely to widen further over the next few months, driving an even higher deficit.
Cement : Lahore High Court upholds 6% Royalty on Punjab Manufacturers - By Taurus Research

Jun 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • In a recent development, the Lahore High Court has upheld its decision, to maintain the higher royalty charge i.e. 6% of the ex-factory cement price (PKR 1,250-1,350 per ton) – previously PKR 250/ton in FY24 for Punjab based manufacturers - ruling against the cement companies. We believe the affected Companies are likely to file on appeal against the judgment in the Supreme Court.
  • Hence, the decision cannot be considered final as yet. Nevertheless, cement companies operating out of Punjab are already providing for the higher royalty charge. However, encashment of bank guarantees for securing on earlier stay order may have slight impact on cash flows for these companies.
  • In contrast, KPK based cement producers are already enjoying high margins on selling cement bags at the discounted prices in Punjab. To recall, the KPK government announced provisional budget where they increased royalty charge from PKR 250/ton to PKR 350/ton. Resultantly, the disparity remains huge in the royalty charges of KPK and Punjab cement manufacturers i.e. PKR 950-1,050 per ton difference.