Economy: 100bps cut expected in policy rate – By Foundation Research
Jan 24 2025
Foundation Securities
- Despite the substantial policy rate cuts of 900bps in the recent monetary easing cycle, real interest rates on current, 1-yr forward and core measures are still overly positive (9/5/4%), a reflection of the substantial decline in inflation during CY24. Viewed together with being in an IMF program, external account surplus in 1HFY25, stable exchange rate and negative output gap, we believe the Central Bank will continue reducing the policy rate taking it to 12.0% (↓100bps) at the Monetary Policy meeting scheduled on 27 th Jan’25. At this level, the monetary policy stance would still be significantly tight (as required by IMF). The primary downside risk to our interest rate and inflation projection emanates from repercussions of the conflicts in and around the oil producing nations and its implication on energy prices. At the last MPS in Dec’24, we were surprised by the reasoning of the SBP in limiting the reduction in policy rate to only 200bps. They premised their argument on sticky core inflation which was in stark contrast to their encouraging statements on its downward trajectory in prior MPS statements. We feel that this was driven by the notion that inflation is projected to resurge to ~10% YoY from May’25 onwards as the low base effect diminishes.
- National CPI is projected to post an uptick of 0.7% MoM in Jan’25 on the back of increase in food prices and house rent. This would take YoY reading to 3.0% compared to 4.1% YoY last month.