Mari Energies (MARI): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR9.3 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Jan 27 2025


Insight Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI PA) has announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR11.2bn (EPS: PKR9.3) vs. PAT of PKR18.4bn (EPS: PKR15.3). The result is below our expectation due to higher than expected operating expenses.
  • In 2QFY25, revenue decreased by 9% YoY/QoQ mainly due to lower gas production. To highlight, company’s gas production is expected to decline by 5%/6% YoY/QoQ.
  • Royalty expense increased by 39%/45% YoY/QoQ due to an additional 15% royalty payment on the wellhead value, following the extension of the MARI D&P lease.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): MARI discovers gas at Soho-1 in Sujawal Block, Sindh - By AKD Research

May 9 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has announced a gas discovery at the exploratory well Soho-1, located in the Sujawal Block, Sindh. The company (100% working interest), successfully tested across two formations, with gas flow reaching 30mmcfd at a 64” choke. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR5.0/sh (8% of FY26E earnings).
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Earnings Beat by Lower Than Expected ETR - By IIS Research

Apr 25 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Mari Energies Limited (MARI PA) has announced its 3QFY25 profit of PKR 15.9bn (PKR 13.25/share), up by 13% YoY & 42% on QoQ basis. The result is above our expectations mainly due to lower than anticipated ETR.
  • Revenue fell 5% YoY (up by 10% QoQ) in 3Q, driven by lower oil prices. Royalty rose 2x YoY due to a 15% hike in MARI field charges amid lease extension from Nov’24.
  • Operating expenses declined by 27% YoY and 45% QoQ, mainly because of absence of amortization of dry well costs. Exploration expenses also decreased by 81% YoY and 22% on QoQ basis, mainly because of no dry well during the qtr.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR13.2 – Above expectatio - By Insight Research

Apr 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI PA) has announced its 3QFY25 result today, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR15.9bn (EPS: PKR13.2) vs. PKR14.1bn (EPS: PKR11.8). The result is above our expectation mainly due to higher than expected topline coupled with lower than expected ETR.
  • In 3QFY25, revenue decreased by 5% YoY mainly due to lower gas production. However, same in up by 10% QoQ possibly attributable to increase in production.
  • Royalty expense increased by 100%/45% YoY/QoQ due to an additional 15% royalty payment on the wellhead value, following the extension of the MARI D&P lease.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): 3QFY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 9.5; PAT down 19%YoY/Up 3%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: April 25, 2025.
  • 3QFY25 EPS: PKR 9.5; 3QFY25 DPS: NIL. 9MFY25 EPS: PKR 34.9; 9MFY25 DPS: NIL. 3QFY25 PAT down 19%YoY.
  • Net sales for the quarter are likely to fall 17%YoY/3%QoQ on account of lower production due to drop in offtake by SNGP due to system constraints mainly. However, some respite is expected amid slight uptick in realized prices for the quarter
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Fourth discovery at Spinwam-1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Apr 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a milestone fourth discovery at the Spinwam-1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 70.3mmcfd of gas and 310bpd of oil (at choke size of 64/64”). The latest discovery is anticipated to push cumulative output from the field to 127.6mmcfd of gas and 569bpd of oil.
  • We estimate Spinwam-1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR13.35/sh for MARI and PkR2.37/sh for OGDC. Notably, the incremental EPS impact from the latest find comes out to be PkR7.4/1.3 per share for MARI and OGDC, respectively.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Second discovery at Spinwam -1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a second discovery at the Spinwam -1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 20.5mmcfd of gas and 117bpd of oil. Notably, first discovery at Spinwam -1 was announced in late Feb’25, with the latest find bringing cumulative production potential to 33.4mmcfd of gas and 137bpd of oil. We estimate Spinwam -1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR3.48/sh for MARI and PkR0.62/sh for OGDC.
Mari Energies (MARI): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR9.3 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Jan 27 2025


Insight Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI PA) has announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR11.2bn (EPS: PKR9.3) vs. PAT of PKR18.4bn (EPS: PKR15.3). The result is below our expectation due to higher than expected operating expenses.
  • In 2QFY25, revenue decreased by 9% YoY/QoQ mainly due to lower gas production. To highlight, company’s gas production is expected to decline by 5%/6% YoY/QoQ.
  • Royalty expense increased by 39%/45% YoY/QoQ due to an additional 15% royalty payment on the wellhead value, following the extension of the MARI D&P lease.
Pakistan Market: SAZEW, GLAXO, AIRLINK, FFC & MARI top performer in KSE 100 Basket – By Topline Research

Dec 30 2024


Topline Securities


  • Benchmark KSE 100 Index jumped 85% in PKR (87% in USD) in 2024, with only one trading session left. Market value (market capitalization) of listed companies at PSX also increased by 61% to reach Rs14.6trn.
  • Pharmaceuticals, Jute and Transport were the best performing sectors in 2024 as their market cap increased by 198%, 182%, and 130% respectively. On the other hand, chemicals, Modarabas, and Textile Weaving sectors remained the worst performing sectors posting decline of 54%, 33% and 2%, respectively in 2024.
  • Pharmaceuticals posted a strong performance due to the improved financial results after decline in raw material prices, stable currency, lower inflation and deregulation of non-essential drugs. Haleon Pakistan (HALEON) saw its market capitalization rise by 409%, followed by GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (GLAXO) with a 385% increase, and Macter International (MACTER) with a 274% rise in 2024.
Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI): Trading at a premium – By Insight Research

Dec 18 2024


Insight Securities


  • MARI has rallied significantly, reaching a high of ~PKR899 on closing basis . Amid recent price performance, we have SELL call on MARI with a Dec’25 DCF -based target price of PKR476 /sh , using an asset -based valuation approach . We believe that the potential of E&P business is well priced -in and current valuation of the stock doesn't align with ground realities . Our valuation does not incorporate the company’s new diversification projects, such as mining and cloud storage, as these project are still in early stages . Additionally, MARI continues to expand its portfolio through new drilling activities and exploration in uncharted areas . While company has remained aggressive in its exploration efforts, no significant developments has materialized yet . Currently, stock is trading at a forward PE of 13 . 3 x for FY26 earnings, compared to OGDC/PPL/POL forward PE of 5 . 1x/ 5 . 6x/ 7 . 5 x respectively.
  • Our FY25 & FY26 EPS stands at ~PKR51 & PKR55 /sh , respectively . This decline is primarily due to an additional royalty of 15 % imposed on the MARI field . We have assumed saleable gas production of 804mmcfd in FY25 due to SNGPL gas curtailment . While for FY26 , we have taken gas production of 843mmcfd as we expect gas from Shewa (70mmcfd) and Jhim east (14mmcfd) to come online in 1QFY26.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Economy: May-25 CPI likely at 2.7%, base effect wears off - By JS Research

May 27 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May-2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%.
  • Due to the rapid disinflation during the year, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 averages 4.6%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 5.7%.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced policy rate to 11% in the last MPC meeting, owing to rapidly declining inflation. A further rate cut of 50-100bps cannot be ruled out in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Morning News: IMF in disagreement over key targets, subsidies - By Vector Research

May 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations.
  • Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran which stood at $3billion would be taken to $10 billion volume in the next few years, as there was immense potential of growth. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday departed to Iran after concluding his two-day official visit to Turkiye.
  • Despite projected remittance inflows of $38 billion in the current fiscal year (FY25), Pakistan’s per expatriate remittance remains significantly lower than that of peer countries. “Although remittances have grown at a compound annual rate of 6.1 per cent from 2013 to 2023, per expatriate remittance remains low in comparison to other countries in the region,” said a report released by the Policy Research and Advisory Council (PRAC) on Monday.
Morning News: Budget features bold measures for ‘strategic direction - By HMFS Research

May 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday pledged that the upcoming federal budget would introduce “bold measures” to steer the national economy in a strategic direction and make available whatever support is required by the armed forces. Further said that every possible support would be provided to the armed forces, stressing that it was a national need in light of recent cross-border aggression, not just a military requirement. He said the government would ensure simplified tax returns and forms for the salaried class. He said that around 70 to 80 percent of salaried people did not hold equity and fixed-income portfolios. “They receive salaries through bank accounts with tax deducted at source. They should not have to fill in 140-150 data points,” he said, adding that the government aimed to reduce that number to just nine — five for wealth tax and four for income tax. He said the process would now be accelerated, with transactions involving Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), three power distribution companies and some financial institutions expected to reach completion by the end of this year.
  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations. “The budget announcement has been delayed by a week because the Finance Ministry’s figures are still under reconciliation. The IMF has placed a cap on subsidies,” he added. He further noted that the IMF has declined to make any changes to the revised budget figures recently presented to the Fund’s team.
  • The government is seriously considering reducing federal excise duty (FED) on beverages (aerated water) in the coming budget (2025-26) to attract foreign investment in this sector. Foreign investors including Turkish investors have promised more foreign direct investment in beverage sector in case of tax relief in the coming budget (2025-26). Leading global players with Turkish and Korean franchise investors have invested over USD 2 billion in Pakistan since 2018. However, no new investments have been made since 2023 due to the current fiscal environment. The industry contributes over Rs 175 billion in taxes annually (FED, GST, income tax, super tax) - one of the highest taxed sectors.
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC): Exports outlook gets weaker; Reiterate Sell - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We tweak down our CY25E/CY26E EPS estimates for Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC) by 9% and TP by 4%. The revision is mainly led by the expected fall in volumes led by border issues with Afghanistan coupled with the upcoming capacity expansions in Central Asia, which may adversely impact PABC’s export prospects to the region. We reiterate our Underperform rating for the stock with a TP of Rs110.
  • Furthermore, any reduction in regulatory duty in the upcoming budget (from 22%-26% currently to 15% or less) given to the local industry, may create pressure on sales volumes from dumping of cheaper products in the country.
  • We consider resumption of dividend payout and announcement of any Capex or investment plan as key triggers for the stock going forward. To highlight, PABC stands at net cash position of Rs10.7bn (Mar-2025).
Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited (AGTL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR1.01 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • AGTL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR59mn (EPS: PKR1.01) vs. PAT of PKR855mn (EPS: PKR14.7) in SPLY, down by ~93% YoY. The result is significantly below our expectation mainly due to lower than estimated gross margins and higher than estimated operating expenses.
  • During 1QCY25, revenue witnessed a decline of 62%/66% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR3.6bn, primarily due to lower volumetric sales. To highlight, volumetric sales decrease by ~63%/69% YoY/QoQ.
  • Gross margins decreased by ~70bps/390bps YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~21.5% in 1QCY25, possibly due to lower volumes.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR0.44 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR0.7bn (EPS: PKR0.44) vs. PAT of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.59) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated revenue.
  • In 1QCY25, revenue decreased by 33% YoY, due to lower volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is up by 6% possibly due to higher PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 6.2%, up by 100bps/540bps YoY/QoQ, due to improved core delta.
Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL): 2QFY24 EPS clocked in at PKR0.96 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • NCL has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR231mn (EPS: PKR0.96) vs. LAT of PKR911mn (LPS: PKR3.8) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to higherthan-expected tax expense.
  • In 2QFY25, company’s revenue clocked in at PKR20.7bn (US$74.2mn) compared to PKR20.1bn (US$71.0mn) in SPLY, up by ~3% YoY. The increase in topline is possibly attributable to higher volumetric sales. However, same is down by ~11% on QoQ basis.
  • Gross margins clocked in at ~11% depicting an increase of ~2.3ppts QoQ, possibly due to operational efficiency and lower cotton prices.
Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited (LOTCHEM): 4QCY24 LPS clocked in at PKR0.01 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • LOTCHEM has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein company has posted LAT of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) vs. PAT of PKR238mn (EPS: PKR0.16) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to lower than estimated gross margins and revenue.
  • In 4QCY24, revenue increased by 4% YoY, due to higher volumetric sales. While on QoQ basis, same is down by 17% due to lower PTA prices and volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 0.8%, down by 120bps/340bps YoY/QoQ, possibly due to lower realized core delta.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR7.70 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • EFERT has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR10.3bn (EPS: PKR7.70) vs. PAT of PKR11.1bn (EPS: PKR8.32) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation mainly due to higher than expected selling and distribution expense.
  • Revenue for the quarter clocked in at PKR84.8bn vs. PKR75.2bn in SPLY, mainly attributable to higher offtakes coupled with increase in urea prices.
  • Gross margins decreased by ~3.8ppts YoY, to clock in at ~35% attributable to higher gas prices.
Mari Energies (MARI): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR9.3 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Jan 27 2025


Insight Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI PA) has announced its 2QFY25 result today, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR11.2bn (EPS: PKR9.3) vs. PAT of PKR18.4bn (EPS: PKR15.3). The result is below our expectation due to higher than expected operating expenses.
  • In 2QFY25, revenue decreased by 9% YoY/QoQ mainly due to lower gas production. To highlight, company’s gas production is expected to decline by 5%/6% YoY/QoQ.
  • Royalty expense increased by 39%/45% YoY/QoQ due to an additional 15% royalty payment on the wellhead value, following the extension of the MARI D&P lease.
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