Morning News: IMF mission likely to arrive by March - By IIS Research

Jan 31 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission is expected to reach Pakistan by end of February or early March for first review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. This was stated by Federal Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb while talking to media here on Wednesday. “No date is confirmed yet for the IMF Mission to visit Pakistan for the first review, but is expected by end February or early March,” said the minister.
  • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Pakistan have yet to finalize several details of the deal on 15 percent shares in Reko-Diq (copper and gold) project in Balochistan.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Thursday that the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) review mission might arrive by the end of February, as the government grapples with the issue of allowing property purchases of up to Rs10 million without first explaining the source of income.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high both intraday and at the close. While the index showed strength, it remained somewhat volatile throughout the session, with instances of profit taking observed as investors locked in gains after the recent rally. Trading volumes decreased to 280mn shares today as compared to 346mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 343 points to close at 130,687 level, up by 0.26% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 392 points to the index.                                     
Morning News: SBP reserves jump $5bn to $14.5bn, surpassing IMF target - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a major achievement on the economic front, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign reserves jumped by $5 billion to reach $14.51 billion end of the last fiscal year (FY25), surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) target of $13.9 billion. Economists noted that this milestone was made possible through the joint efforts of the SBP and the federal government as they successfully stabilized the external sector by implementing prudent macroeconomic policies and securing timely external inflows.
  • The federal government is all set to do away with some incentives extended to overseas Pakistanis to remit money through legal channels.
  • The government spent Rs905 billion on development schemes in the last fiscal year, which was lower than the allocation and may now require a downward revision in the 2.7% economic growth rate that had been worked out on the basis of Rs1.1 trillion in expenses.
Morning News: Oil prices little changed as investors look ahead to OPEC+ meeting - By IIS Research

Jul 2 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors are wary ahead of a meeting of major producers this week to determine output levels for August. Brent crude was up 1 cent at $67.12 a barrel at 0124 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5 cents to $65.40 a barrel. Demand expectations received a boost on Tuesday after a private-sector survey showed factory activity expanded in June in China, the world's biggest oil importer, analysts said.
  • Pakistan’s trade deficit stood at $2.32 billion in June 2025, reflecting a 9.4% improvement compared to May 2025, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Pakistan’s exports stood at $2.543bn in June 2025, a 4.79% drop from $2.671bn in June 2025.
  • The Consumer Price Index-based inflation clocked in at 3.2 percent on year-on-year basis in June 2025 as compared to 3.5 percent of the previous month and 12.6 percent in June 2024, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.2per cent in June 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.2per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5per cent in June 2024.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 1 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, reaching a new all time high both intraday and at closing. The index gradually gained points throughout the session, supported by improved liquidity and sustained investor interest, reflecting strong market confidence. Trading volumes increased to 337mn shares today as compared to 259mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,572 points to close at 128,199 level, up by 2.05% DoD. Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 2355 points to the index.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 30 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high at closing as it steadily gained points throughout the session. Improved market liquidity supported sustained buying interest. Trading volumes increased to 259mn shares today as compared to 219mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,248 points to close at 125,627 level, up by 1.00% DoD. Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 749 points to the index.                                                                                     
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note - By IIS Research

Jun 26 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note, gradually shedding points throughout the session as profit taking set in. Added pressure from rollover week volatility kept investor sentiment cautious, leading to a subdued close. Trading volumes increased to 244mn shares today as compared to 221mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 715 points to close at 122,046 level, down by -0.58% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Technology & Communication sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 680 points from the index.                                                                                     
Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. (ACPL): Potential Acquisition of Attock Cement Sponsor Exploring Exit Options - By IIS Research

Jun 26 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Pharaon Investment Group Limited (PIGL), the majority shareholder of Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. (ACPL), is evaluating strategic options for its investment in the company, including a potential sale. This process was initially disclosed in December 2024 and reaffirmed in May 2025. Following this, ACPL has received Public Announcements of Intention from multiple parties to acquire up to 115.5mn shares, representing 84.06% of the company’s paid-up capital, subject to regulatory approvals. While the process is ongoing, formal interest has been disclosed by three distinct sets of acquirers.
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd. (ACPL), located in Hub, Baluchistan, is the second largest cement producer in the South region with an installed capacity of 4.3mn tons. A major 1.3mn ton brownfield expansion, completed in April 2024 at a cost of US$100mn, raised its market share in the South from 18% to 24%. Its coastal location provides logistical advantages for exports and proximity to regional infrastructure and mining developments, including those under CPEC and around the Reko Diq site.
  • ACPL has focused on improving energy efficiency through captive generation. Its total installed capacity now stands at 61.8MW, comprising WHR, solar, coal-fired boiler, and a wind turbine commissioned in March 2025. This shift has reduced reliance on the national grid to 10% and cut power costs by around 35%. While South accounts for a smaller share of domestic cement demand in Pakistan, the region remains dominant in exports. ACPL expects its export volumes to grow further, supported by competitive clinker pricing and increased shipments to markets like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 25 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note as bullish momentum extended from the previous session. Eased regional tensions and stability in commodity prices continued to support investor confidence, with selective buying observed across key sectors. Trading volumes decreased to 221mn shares today as compared to 318mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 515 points to close at 122,762 level, up by 0.42% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Fertilizer sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 491 points to the index.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a strong positive note - By IIS Research

Jun 24 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a strong positive note, hitting the halt during the session amid reports of ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which eased regional tensions and drove oil prices lower. The improved sentiment fueled aggressive buying, lifting the market sharply. Trading volumes increased to 318mn shares today as compared to 196mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 6,079 points to close at 122,247 level, up by 5.23% DoD. Commercial Banks, Cement, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 3121 points to the index.