Engro Fertilizers (EFERT): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs7.7, down 8% YoY (earnings lower than expectations) - By Topline Research

Feb 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) announced its 4Q2024 financial result today, wherein the company recorded a consolidated quarterly profits of Rs10.2bn (EPS: Rs7.7), down 8% YoY and up 20% QoQ.
  • This takes 2024 earnings to Rs28.2bn (EPS: Rs21.16) up 8% YoY.
  • Along with the results, the company also declared cash dividend of Rs8/share, in-line with market expectations. This takes total 2024 cash dividend to Rs21.50/share (payout 101%).
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): Result Review: EFERT 1QCY25 EPS Rs2.17, DPS Rs2.25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 22 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) announced its 1QCY25 result today wherein the company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.9bn (EPS of Rs2.2) as compared to net earnings of Rs7.8bn (EPS of Rs5.8) during same period last year, down by 63%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
  • Along with the result, company announced interim cash dividend of Rs2.25/share.
  • During 1QCY25, net revenue clocked in at Rs30bn, down by 59%YoY. The decline is mainly attributed to lower urea sales (down 53%YoY).
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 1QCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.2; PAT down 63%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 22 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25: EPS: PKR 2.2; DPS: 2.3; PAT: PKR 2.9Bn, down 63%YoY – above expectations
  • Net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 30Bn in 1QCY25, down significantly by 59%YoY on the back of decrease in Urea and DAP offtake by 58%YoY and 78%YoY, respectively. Gross margins arrived at 35% in 1QCY25, up 12pptsYoY due to improving cost efficiencies. However, EFERT’s market share dropped (down 10ppts to 23% in 1QCY25) amid amalgamation of FFBL into FFC (took effect from 3QCY24) which has forced the company to sell Urea bags at significantly discounted prices in order to overcome the pressure of continuous fall in market share i.e. highest Urea bag prices (impact of availing higher feed gas i.e. PKR 1,597/MMBTU) compared to the peer companies. Earnings arrived at PKR 2.9Bn in 1QCY25, down 63%YoY due to massive surge in finance cost (up 5.8xYoY) amid increase in borrowings to fund the ongoing “Pressure Enhancement Project”. Lastly, the Company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.3/sh. for the quarter.
Engro Fertilizers (EFERT):1Q2025 EPS at Rs2.17, down 63% YoY (earnings higher than expectations) - By Topline Research

Apr 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) announced its 1Q2025 financial result today, wherein the company recorded a consolidated quarterly profits of Rs2.9bn (EPS: Rs2.17), down 63% YoY and 75% QoQ.
  • Along with the results, the company also declared cash dividend of Rs2.25/share, in-line with market expectations.
  • The 1Q2025 result came higher than our expectations due to higher-than-expected gross margins
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows.
  • To recall, in 4QCY24 the company has posted consolidated earnings of PKR 7.7/share (PKR 21.16/share in CY24). Alongside the result, the company announced a cash dividend of PKR 8.00/share (PKR 21.50/share in CY24).
  • The company highlighted the YoY improvement in annual performance, from revenue to EPS. However, quarterly results showed a 7.8% YoY decline in PAT, driven by discounts offered to dealers. The gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 35%, up from 31% in the previous quarter, attributed to the reclassification of expenses for better presentation.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): CY24 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 14 2025


Insight Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited conducted analyst briefing to discuss its financial results. We have summarized the following key takeaways from the briefing:
  • In CY24, EFERT’s profitability has witnessed an increase of 7.9% YoY, to clock in at PKR28.2bn (EPS: PKR21.2), compared to PKR26.2bn (EPS: PKR19.61) in SPLY. This increase is mainly attributable to better product prices.
  • On higher selling and distribution expense in 4QCY24, management commented its attributable to reclassification of cost from COGS to S&D expense coupled with higher inventory holding cost.
Engro Fertilizers (EFERT): 4Q2024 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) held its 4Q2024 Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance and future outlook.
  • During 4Q2024, selling and distribution cost was abruptly increased due to some reclassification of expenses along with impact of axel load and warehouse related costs, respectively.
  • The company has launched a Digital Platform named ugAi with AI enable services that allow the farmers to book inventory directly from company at defined rates and quality products.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 Result Review — Higher distribution & finance cost dent earnings - By AKD Research

Feb 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of PkR10.3bn (EPS: PkR7.7), an 8%YoY decline from PkR11.1bn (EPS: PkR8.3) in SPLY. The result is largely in line with our expectations. However, the annual drop in earnings is due to higher distribution expenses and lower other income. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR8.0/sh, taking full-year dividend to PkR21.5/sh.
  • Revenue rose by 13%YoY to PkR84.8bn in 4QCY24 vs. PkR75.2bn in SPLY, supported by a 17%YoY increase in urea offtakes and 24%YoY rise in prices. However, DAP and NP sales declined by 5%YoY and 74%YoY, respectively.
  • Gross margins contracted to 34.9% from 38.7% in SPLY, as 56%YoY rise in input gas prices outpaced the increase in selling prices.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): Result Review: EFERT 4QCY24 EPS Rs7.7, DPS Rs8 - By Sherman Research

Feb 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) announced its 4QCY24 result today wherein the company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs10.3bn (EPS of Rs7.7) as compared to net earnings of Rs11.2bn (EPS of Rs8.3) during same period last year, down by 8%YoY. The result came lower than our estimate due to higher than expected operating expenses. ? Along with the result, company announced final cash dividend of Rs8/share taking cumulative dividend to Rs21.5/share for CY24 (payout ratio of 100%).
  • During 4QCY24, net revenue clocked in at Rs85bn, up by 13%YoY. The increase is mainly attributed to higher urea sales (up by 17%YoY) as company offered discount of Rs100/bag to regain its market share during the period.
  • EFERT’s gross margin clocked in at 35% during 4QCY24 as compared to 39% during the same period last year (down by 4ppt). The decline in margins is due to higher gas price during the period.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 EPS clocked-in at PKR 7.7, DPS PKR 8.0, taking CY24 EPS to PKR 21.2 - By Foundation Research

Feb 10 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT PA) posted a profit of PKR 10.3bn (EPS PKR 7.7) in 4QCY24, against profit of PKR 11.1bn (EPS PKR 8.3) in 4QCY23, undergoing a decrease of 8% YoY. This cumulates to CY24 profitability of PKR 28.3bn (EPS PKR 21.2), up 8% YoY, vs. PKR 26.2bn (EPS PKR 19.6) in CY23.
  • Result is also accompanied by a final cash dividend of PKR 8.0/sh, which takes CY24 payout to PKR 21.5/sh.
  • In 4QCY24, PAT decreased/increased 8/20% YoY/QoQ. The decline is due to a 2.0x YoY jump in distribution costs and 5.4x YoY incline in finance cost. Profitability increased QoQ because of higher off-take compared to previous quarter, however distribution costs saw a jump of 4.9x. We attribute increase in CY24 profitability (↑8% YoY) to (1) higher other income (up 5.6x YoY) and (2) lower tax expense (ETR of 37% in CY24).
Engro Fertilizers (EFERT): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs7.7, down 8% YoY (earnings lower than expectations) - By Topline Research

Feb 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) announced its 4Q2024 financial result today, wherein the company recorded a consolidated quarterly profits of Rs10.2bn (EPS: Rs7.7), down 8% YoY and up 20% QoQ.
  • This takes 2024 earnings to Rs28.2bn (EPS: Rs21.16) up 8% YoY.
  • Along with the results, the company also declared cash dividend of Rs8/share, in-line with market expectations. This takes total 2024 cash dividend to Rs21.50/share (payout 101%).
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Economy: May-25 CPI likely at 2.7%, base effect wears off - By JS Research

May 27 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May-2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%.
  • Due to the rapid disinflation during the year, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 averages 4.6%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 5.7%.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced policy rate to 11% in the last MPC meeting, owing to rapidly declining inflation. A further rate cut of 50-100bps cannot be ruled out in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Morning News: IMF in disagreement over key targets, subsidies - By Vector Research

May 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations.
  • Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran which stood at $3billion would be taken to $10 billion volume in the next few years, as there was immense potential of growth. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday departed to Iran after concluding his two-day official visit to Turkiye.
  • Despite projected remittance inflows of $38 billion in the current fiscal year (FY25), Pakistan’s per expatriate remittance remains significantly lower than that of peer countries. “Although remittances have grown at a compound annual rate of 6.1 per cent from 2013 to 2023, per expatriate remittance remains low in comparison to other countries in the region,” said a report released by the Policy Research and Advisory Council (PRAC) on Monday.
Morning News: Budget features bold measures for ‘strategic direction - By HMFS Research

May 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday pledged that the upcoming federal budget would introduce “bold measures” to steer the national economy in a strategic direction and make available whatever support is required by the armed forces. Further said that every possible support would be provided to the armed forces, stressing that it was a national need in light of recent cross-border aggression, not just a military requirement. He said the government would ensure simplified tax returns and forms for the salaried class. He said that around 70 to 80 percent of salaried people did not hold equity and fixed-income portfolios. “They receive salaries through bank accounts with tax deducted at source. They should not have to fill in 140-150 data points,” he said, adding that the government aimed to reduce that number to just nine — five for wealth tax and four for income tax. He said the process would now be accelerated, with transactions involving Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), three power distribution companies and some financial institutions expected to reach completion by the end of this year.
  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations. “The budget announcement has been delayed by a week because the Finance Ministry’s figures are still under reconciliation. The IMF has placed a cap on subsidies,” he added. He further noted that the IMF has declined to make any changes to the revised budget figures recently presented to the Fund’s team.
  • The government is seriously considering reducing federal excise duty (FED) on beverages (aerated water) in the coming budget (2025-26) to attract foreign investment in this sector. Foreign investors including Turkish investors have promised more foreign direct investment in beverage sector in case of tax relief in the coming budget (2025-26). Leading global players with Turkish and Korean franchise investors have invested over USD 2 billion in Pakistan since 2018. However, no new investments have been made since 2023 due to the current fiscal environment. The industry contributes over Rs 175 billion in taxes annually (FED, GST, income tax, super tax) - one of the highest taxed sectors.
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC): Exports outlook gets weaker; Reiterate Sell - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We tweak down our CY25E/CY26E EPS estimates for Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC) by 9% and TP by 4%. The revision is mainly led by the expected fall in volumes led by border issues with Afghanistan coupled with the upcoming capacity expansions in Central Asia, which may adversely impact PABC’s export prospects to the region. We reiterate our Underperform rating for the stock with a TP of Rs110.
  • Furthermore, any reduction in regulatory duty in the upcoming budget (from 22%-26% currently to 15% or less) given to the local industry, may create pressure on sales volumes from dumping of cheaper products in the country.
  • We consider resumption of dividend payout and announcement of any Capex or investment plan as key triggers for the stock going forward. To highlight, PABC stands at net cash position of Rs10.7bn (Mar-2025).
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • The management of Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW) held it's corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results for 3QFY25 and share the company's future outlook.
  • SAZEW plans to complete its four-wheeler manufacturing expansion by March 2026 and introduce new NEV models. The company will also focus on expanding its export markets (mainly three wheelers) and the local dealership network. Sazgar currently has a network of 20 four-wheeler dealers, with expansion underway as new centers in Mardan and Peshawar are set to open soon.
  • The production capacity of the company will increase from 40-50 cars a day to 90-100 cars a day post expansion.
Economy: Pakistan Federal Budget FY26 Preview Fiscal consolidation to continue; Third consecutive year of primary surplus - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Fiscal consolidation to continue: Pakistan is set to announce Federal Budget FY26 on Jun 02, 2025. We expect this budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed/low tax areas in tax net. Furthermore, we believe, this Budget FY26 hold high importance from policy point of view as various additional legislative engagements are likely to be undertaken i.e. inclusion of Section 114c, National Tariff Policy, Captive Power Levy Ordinance, removing cap on Debt Servicing Surcharge (DSS) amongst others.
  • Government’s commitment to IMF for FY26 Budget: Government has committed with IMF to continue with fiscal consolidation in FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability. The government targets primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP (vs. 2.0-2.1% of GDP in FY25), a surplus for third consecutive year after 2 decades. The govt. has also committed to use any windfall dividend expected from central bank over and above 1% of GDP to retire debt.
  • FBR FY26 Tax revenue growth target could be lowest in 6 years: FBR revenue target is expected at Rs14.1-14.3tn, up 16-18% YoY, which will be a lowest % growth in last 6 years. FBR has achieved 5-year revenue CAGR of 25% from FY21-25. We believe, out of this required 16-18% growth, ~12% would be achieved through autonomous growth driven by real GDP growth of 3.6% and inflation of 7.7%. The remaining 4-5% growth translates into additional tax measures of Rs500-600bn, we estimate.
Power: Apr’25 generation up 22%YoY / 25%MoM - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Power generation in Apr’25 clocked in at 10,511GWh, reflecting a 22%YoY increase and a 25%MoM jump, driven by seasonal recovery in demand as temperatures rose. This marks a significant rebound from Mar’25, when generation stood at 8,409GWh, following a dip to 6,945GWh in February due to winter-related slowdown in both household and industrial consumption.
  • Cumulatively, 10MFY25 power generation stood at 100,658GWh, reflecting a slight 0.3% YoY decline compared to 100,966GWh in the SPLY.
  • Hydel generation saw a sharp rebound, increasing by 78%MoM and 11%YoY, contributing 2,306GWh—driven by higher power demand. Coal-based generation, which was the highest contributor in the mix, surged 1.9xYoY to 2,579GWh and rose 33%MoM— likely due to improved plant availability and lower global coal prices. However, nuclear generation declined by 8%YoY and 15% MoM, contributing 1,882GWh. Meanwhile, generation from expensive sources like furnace oil and HSD dropped to just 1% of the mix, in line with the Government’s continued shift toward more cost-efficient and sustainable energy sources.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan GDP grew 2.4% in 3QFY25 FY25 provisional GDP growth of 2.68% fall below target of 3.6% - By Topline Research

May 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • In line with our expectation, Pakistan posted real GDP growth of 2.4% during 3QFY25 compared to revised estimates of 1.5% and 1.4% for 2QFY25 and 1QFY25, respectively. The average quarterly growth for 9MFY25 is estimated around 1.8%.
  • While government has published provisional growth of 2.68% for FY25, lower than the targeted growth of 3.6%. Segment wise, agriculture, industry and services are projected to post growth of 0.6%, 4.8%, and 2.9%, respectively compared to target growth rate of 2%, 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively.
  • We believe, towards end of the year, services numbers for FY25 will be revised up as 9MFY25 growth average is already 2.97%, while industrial growth will be sharply revised down as in 9MFY25 industry has contracted by 1%.
United Bank Limited (UBL): Earnings Revised Up; Buy Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

May 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised our earnings estimates for United Bank Limited (UBL) upward by 55% for both 2025 and 2026 to Rs96/share and Rs85/share, respectively following the incorporation of 1Q2025 results.
  • UBL’s 1Q2025 results came above industry expectations, primarily driven by higher-thanexpected Net Interest Income (NII). This was supported by strong growth in current account deposits, increased repo borrowings with improved spreads, and higher than expected capital gains.
  • Strong Deposit Growth: UBL reported a strong total deposit growth of 23% YoY and 29% QoQ in 1Q2025 compared to peer banks (HBL, MCB, ABL, NBP, MEBL) average of 15% YoY and 5% QoQ. UBL’s current account deposits also showed robust performance, rising by 50% YoY and 20% QoQ compared to peer banks average of 16% YoY and 11% QoQ. As a result, UBL’s current account mix improved to 54% as of Mar-2025, compared to 44% in Mar-2024.
Economy: Pakistan Inflation to clock in at 3.5-4.0% in May 2025 Bottomed out in Apr 2025 - By Topline Research

May 19 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025 is expected to clock in at 3.5-4.0% YoY, taking 11MFY25 average to 4.77% compared to 24.52% in 11MFY24. The MoM inflation in May 2025 is expected to clock in at +0.1%.
  • As mentioned in our previous month inflation report dated Apr 21, 2025, the inflation numbers bottomed out in Apr 2025.
  • During May 2025, food inflation is expected to decline by 0.3% MoM, primarily due to a 27% drop in tomato prices and a 16% decline in onion prices. However, this was partially offset by 24% increase in egg prices, a 20% rise in fresh vegetable prices, and an 8.5% rise in chicken prices.
Technology: IT Exports in Apr-25 up by 2% YoY to record US$317mn 10MFY25 exports up by 21% YoY - By Topline Research

May 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$317mn in Apr-2025, up by 2% YoY while down by 7% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Apr-2025 are higher than last 12-month average of US$314mn. This is the 19th consecutive month of YoY IT export growth, starting from October 2023.
  • Export proceeds per day were recorded at US$15.9mn for Apr-25 vs. US$18.0mn in Mar-25.
  • This takes 10MFY25 IT exports to US$3.1bn, up by 21% YoY.
Pakistan Pharmaceutical: Listed Pharma Sector Analysis 3QFY25; Deregulation improved sales and margins - By Topline Research

May 9 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan listed pharmaceuticals sector’s earnings were up by 83% YoY to Rs8.0bn in 3QFY25. This jump in profitability is primarily attributed to higher net sales, improved gross margins, and a decline in finance cost.
  • Net sales increased by 12% YoY to Rs85.5bn in 3QFY25, primarily driven by an increase in drug prices following the deregulation of non-essential drugs in Feb-2024. Haleon, ABOT, FEROZ, HPL, and AGP led the sector, showing strong sales growth in absolute terms.
  • This price increase led to an improvement in gross margins, rising to 39% in 3QFY25 from 31% in 3QFY24. Additionally, the recent decline in raw material prices for many drugs and the stable currency further contributed to the increase in gross margins. AGP recorded highest gross margins of 58% in 3QFY25.
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