Citi Pharma Ltd (CPHL): Retail & Global Initiatives to Generate Explosive growth - By Sherman Research

Feb 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We initiate coverage on Citi Pharma (CPHL), Pakistan’s leading producer of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), with a ‘Buy’ recommendation. CPHL is offering potential upside of 136% to our SOTP based target of Rs217. We believe that company’s new initiatives like 1) venturing into high margin retail segment and 2) expanding in global markets will help in achieving explosive 3-year (FY25-27) earnings CAGR of 75% which will unlock valuation.
  • CPHL is a major API supplier of antibiotics and analgesics market (combined API market size of these products is Rs100bn) to big players like HALEON, SAMI, GLAXO and BARRETT HODGSON. The company is now directly venturing into retail market of same APIs which has a bigger market size of Rs235bn. This will substantially increase company’s revenue and gross margins. Generally, API constitute 35% of the cost and yields gross margins of 13%, whereas, finished product of similar API in retail market sells at a higher price - yielding average gross margin of 45%.
  • Over the last few years, CPHL managed to gain reputable presence in public hospitals as a major formulation supplier (finished pharma products without major branding) and is now launching the same products in retail market. Given pricing edge as a leading API manufacturer, the company is offering products at a discounted price enhancing its ability to capture market share in retail market.
Citi Pharma Limited (CPHL): Result Review: CPHL 3QFY25 EPS Re0.96 - By Sherman Research

Apr 30 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Citi Pharma Limited (CPHL) announced 3QFY25 result today where in company posted earnings of Rs220mn (EPS Re0.96) as compared to net earnings of Rs211 (EPS Re0.93) during the same period last year, up by 4%YoY. The earning slightly grew mainly due to expansion in gross margins and lower effective taxation.
  • During 3QFY25, the company’s topline declined by 6%YoY to Rs3.3bn, primarily due to depressed international API prices, which are linked to falling crude oil prices. Additionally, lower volumetric sales in the pharma sector further contributed to the decline.
  • The company’s gross margin stood at 15% in 3QFY25 versus 13% in the same period last year. We believe, this improvement is likely driven by a higher contribution from formulations in the revenue mix, which typically carry higher margins than APIs
Citi Pharma Ltd (CPHL): Retail & Global Initiatives to Generate Explosive growth - By Sherman Research

Feb 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We initiate coverage on Citi Pharma (CPHL), Pakistan’s leading producer of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), with a ‘Buy’ recommendation. CPHL is offering potential upside of 136% to our SOTP based target of Rs217. We believe that company’s new initiatives like 1) venturing into high margin retail segment and 2) expanding in global markets will help in achieving explosive 3-year (FY25-27) earnings CAGR of 75% which will unlock valuation.
  • CPHL is a major API supplier of antibiotics and analgesics market (combined API market size of these products is Rs100bn) to big players like HALEON, SAMI, GLAXO and BARRETT HODGSON. The company is now directly venturing into retail market of same APIs which has a bigger market size of Rs235bn. This will substantially increase company’s revenue and gross margins. Generally, API constitute 35% of the cost and yields gross margins of 13%, whereas, finished product of similar API in retail market sells at a higher price - yielding average gross margin of 45%.
  • Over the last few years, CPHL managed to gain reputable presence in public hospitals as a major formulation supplier (finished pharma products without major branding) and is now launching the same products in retail market. Given pricing edge as a leading API manufacturer, the company is offering products at a discounted price enhancing its ability to capture market share in retail market.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Economy: May-25 CPI likely at 2.7%, base effect wears off - By JS Research

May 27 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May-2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%.
  • Due to the rapid disinflation during the year, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 averages 4.6%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 5.7%.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced policy rate to 11% in the last MPC meeting, owing to rapidly declining inflation. A further rate cut of 50-100bps cannot be ruled out in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Morning News: IMF in disagreement over key targets, subsidies - By Vector Research

May 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations.
  • Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran which stood at $3billion would be taken to $10 billion volume in the next few years, as there was immense potential of growth. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday departed to Iran after concluding his two-day official visit to Turkiye.
  • Despite projected remittance inflows of $38 billion in the current fiscal year (FY25), Pakistan’s per expatriate remittance remains significantly lower than that of peer countries. “Although remittances have grown at a compound annual rate of 6.1 per cent from 2013 to 2023, per expatriate remittance remains low in comparison to other countries in the region,” said a report released by the Policy Research and Advisory Council (PRAC) on Monday.
Morning News: Budget features bold measures for ‘strategic direction - By HMFS Research

May 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday pledged that the upcoming federal budget would introduce “bold measures” to steer the national economy in a strategic direction and make available whatever support is required by the armed forces. Further said that every possible support would be provided to the armed forces, stressing that it was a national need in light of recent cross-border aggression, not just a military requirement. He said the government would ensure simplified tax returns and forms for the salaried class. He said that around 70 to 80 percent of salaried people did not hold equity and fixed-income portfolios. “They receive salaries through bank accounts with tax deducted at source. They should not have to fill in 140-150 data points,” he said, adding that the government aimed to reduce that number to just nine — five for wealth tax and four for income tax. He said the process would now be accelerated, with transactions involving Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), three power distribution companies and some financial institutions expected to reach completion by the end of this year.
  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations. “The budget announcement has been delayed by a week because the Finance Ministry’s figures are still under reconciliation. The IMF has placed a cap on subsidies,” he added. He further noted that the IMF has declined to make any changes to the revised budget figures recently presented to the Fund’s team.
  • The government is seriously considering reducing federal excise duty (FED) on beverages (aerated water) in the coming budget (2025-26) to attract foreign investment in this sector. Foreign investors including Turkish investors have promised more foreign direct investment in beverage sector in case of tax relief in the coming budget (2025-26). Leading global players with Turkish and Korean franchise investors have invested over USD 2 billion in Pakistan since 2018. However, no new investments have been made since 2023 due to the current fiscal environment. The industry contributes over Rs 175 billion in taxes annually (FED, GST, income tax, super tax) - one of the highest taxed sectors.
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC): Exports outlook gets weaker; Reiterate Sell - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We tweak down our CY25E/CY26E EPS estimates for Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC) by 9% and TP by 4%. The revision is mainly led by the expected fall in volumes led by border issues with Afghanistan coupled with the upcoming capacity expansions in Central Asia, which may adversely impact PABC’s export prospects to the region. We reiterate our Underperform rating for the stock with a TP of Rs110.
  • Furthermore, any reduction in regulatory duty in the upcoming budget (from 22%-26% currently to 15% or less) given to the local industry, may create pressure on sales volumes from dumping of cheaper products in the country.
  • We consider resumption of dividend payout and announcement of any Capex or investment plan as key triggers for the stock going forward. To highlight, PABC stands at net cash position of Rs10.7bn (Mar-2025).
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Widens to 2–Year High - By Sherman Research

May 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports of goods posted growth of 17%MoM at US$5.6bn during April’25. The growth was primarily driven by imports in the Machinery and Petroleum group on a weighted average basis, while Food imports remained flat.
  • Wherein exports clocked in at US$2.1bn (down 18%MoM) mainly due to decrease in exports in the textile sector.
  • Thus, the monthly trade deficit widened to US$3.4bn (up 59%MoM) in Apr’25 highest since May’23. On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$48.3bn (up 8%YoY) during 10MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of Machinery, Textile and Metals, while Petroleum imports declined. Thus, cumulative trade deficit clocked US$21.4bn (up 9%YoY) for 10MFY25.
Auto: Car Sales Expected to Remain Flat in April’25 -- By Sherman Research

May 7 2025


Sherman Securities


  • The sales of leading car assemblers registered with PAMA are expected to remain flat clocking at 8,970 units in April’25 (down 1%MoM).
  • The flat sales are driven by decline in sales of PSMC following price hikes on popular models. Additionally, INDU’s moderate sales aimed losing market share to rising competition from new players.
  • Indus Motors (INDU) expected to report sales of 3,259 units (up 4%MoM) during the month. This growth in sales is mainly due to higher sale of Yaris, Corolla and Hilux
Fertilizer: Urea Sales to Decline 24%YoY, Inventory at 8 Year High - By Sherman Research

May 5 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during April’25 is expected to clock in at 251k tons, down 24%YoY. The YoY decline in urea sales is mainly due to weak farm economics amid lower support prices and higher input costs.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to decline by 18%MoM which is expected to be a combination of both seasonal impact and canal protest in several parts of Sind which is also effecting sales. Just to recall, Sind consumes around 25% of the urea production in the country.
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 108k tons versus sales of 223k tons during the same period last year, down 51%YoY. On the flip side, EFERT is likely to witness recovery in urea sales of 7%YoY to 81k tons as compared to 75k tons during the last year.
Citi Pharma Limited (CPHL): Result Review: CPHL 3QFY25 EPS Re0.96 - By Sherman Research

Apr 30 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Citi Pharma Limited (CPHL) announced 3QFY25 result today where in company posted earnings of Rs220mn (EPS Re0.96) as compared to net earnings of Rs211 (EPS Re0.93) during the same period last year, up by 4%YoY. The earning slightly grew mainly due to expansion in gross margins and lower effective taxation.
  • During 3QFY25, the company’s topline declined by 6%YoY to Rs3.3bn, primarily due to depressed international API prices, which are linked to falling crude oil prices. Additionally, lower volumetric sales in the pharma sector further contributed to the decline.
  • The company’s gross margin stood at 15% in 3QFY25 versus 13% in the same period last year. We believe, this improvement is likely driven by a higher contribution from formulations in the revenue mix, which typically carry higher margins than APIs
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Review: PIOC 3QFY25 EPS Rs4.3 - By Sherman Research

Apr 30 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted net earnings of Rs974mn (EPS Rs4.3) as compared to Rs1.2bn (EPS Rs5.3) during the same period last year, down by 19%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
  • During 3QFY25, PIOC’s topline clocked in at Rs7.9bn (down 8%YoY) as cement dispatches fell by 7%YoY.
  • PIOC’s gross margin clocked in at 26% as compared to 32% during the same period last year. We believe that sharp decline is mainly attributed to lower capacity utilization and higher royalty expense during the quarter
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Result Review: LUCK 3QFY25 Diluted EPS Rs9.2 - By Sherman Research

Apr 28 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) announced its 3QFY25 result today wherein the company posted unconsolidated net earnings of Rs13.5bn (Diluted EPS Rs9.2) compared to net earnings of Rs4.9bn (Diluted EPS Rs3.4) during same period last year, up by 174%YoY. The result came above our estimate due to 1) Higher than expected other income and 2) lower effective taxation. Just to recall, this result incorporates the stock split with total outstanding shares of 1.46bn shares.
  • During 3QFY25, net revenue surged by 10%YoY to Rs34.5bn primarily driven by elevated exports (up 52%YoY) while local dispatches remain stagnant.
  • LUCK’s gross margin clocked in at 33% as compared to 29% during the same period last year (up 4ppt). The increase in margins is mainly led by lower coal cost and efficient power mix
GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (Glaxo):Result Review: GLAXO 1QCY25 EPS Rs6.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 25 2025


Sherman Securities


  • GlaxoSmithKline Pakistan (Glaxo) announced 1QCY25 EPS of Rs6.7 versus EPS of 1.8 during the same period last year, up by massive 3.7xYoY. The jump in earning is primarily attributable to increase in gross margins to 34% (up 19ppts).
  • During 1QCY25, the company’s topline remained flat at 15.6bn compared to same period last year mainly due decline in volume.
  • Thanks to hike in prices and decline in raw material prices, Glaxo’s gross margin sharply increased to 34% during 1QCY25 versus 15% during same period last year.
MCB Bank Limited (MCB): Result Review: MCB 1QCY25 EPS Rs11.7, DPS Rs9 - By Sherman Research

Apr 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • MCB Bank Limited (MCB) announced 1QCY25 results today wherein the bank posted an unconsolidated net earnings of Rs13.8bn (EPS Rs11.7) down 17%YoY. The decrease in earnings is primarily attributed to a decline in interest income.
  • The bank announced a cash dividend of Rs9 per share in 1QCY25.
  • MCB’s interest earned clocked in at Rs69.8bn (down 22%YoY), while interest expense for the period stood at Rs34.7bn (down 32%YoY). As a result, NII declined to Rs35.2bn, (down 8%YoY).
Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF): Result Review: MLCF 3QFY25 EPS Rs2.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.8bn (EPS Rs2.7) as compared to earnings of Rs1.5bn (EPS of Rs1.4) during the same period last year, up by 86%YoY. The result came above our estimate mainly due to lower effective taxation during the quarter.
  • During 3QFY25, MLCF’s topline clocked in at Rs16.6bn, up by 4%YoY. Despite the decline in volumetric sales (down 9%YoY), higher topline is driven by better retention prices during the period.
  • MLCF’s gross margin clocked in at 35% during 3QFY25 as compared to 30% during the last year. This elevated gross margin is due to 1) Improved retention prices 2) Lower coal cost and 3) Efficient coal mix.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): Result Review: EFERT 1QCY25 EPS Rs2.17, DPS Rs2.25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 22 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) announced its 1QCY25 result today wherein the company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.9bn (EPS of Rs2.2) as compared to net earnings of Rs7.8bn (EPS of Rs5.8) during same period last year, down by 63%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
  • Along with the result, company announced interim cash dividend of Rs2.25/share.
  • During 1QCY25, net revenue clocked in at Rs30bn, down by 59%YoY. The decline is mainly attributed to lower urea sales (down 53%YoY).
Current:
Open:
Volume:
Change: ()
High:
Low:
52 Week High:
Vol Avg(12 m):
Free Float:
52 Week Low:
Market Cap:
Total Share:

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI:

MACD Signals

MACD DAILY:
MACD WEEKLY:

Simple Moving Avg (SMA)

SMA(10):
SMA(30):
SMA(60):
SMA(200):

Performance

One Month:
Three Months:
Six Months:
Twelve Months:

Support & Resistance

Support 1:
Resistance 1:
Support 2:
Resistance 2:

High & Lows

Period
High
Low