Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at Rs1.95, down 37% YoY - By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL PA) profit clocked-in at Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs1.95 in 4QCY24 against profit of Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs3.11) in 4QCY23.
  • This cumulates into CY24 profit of Rs610mn (EPS Rs0.67) compared to profit of Rs9.2bn (EPS Rs7.63) in CY23.
  • The company did not announce any dividend during CY24
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • EPCL reported revenue of PKR 17.9Bn for the first quarter of 2025, up 7.8% from the same period last year. As a result, the gross profit margin also increased, rising from 6.7% to 7.9%. After factoring in distribution, administrative, and other expenses, EPCL posted an operating profit of PKR 717Mn in 1QCY25, an 81% increase compared to the same period last year. However, these gains were outweighed by high finance costs stemming from the Company’s debt, leading to a net loss of PKR 825Mn and a loss per share of PKR 0.91.
  • EPCL’s poor financial performance is because construction activity stayed weak in key global markets. In USA., housing permits declined for three months straight. In China, the PVC market struggled due to a slowdown in the property sector and rising trade tensions with USA. At the same time, global supply remained high while demand stayed low, which kept pushing PVC prices down, currently standing at USD 700/ton. There’s a growing concern that the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and India’s upcoming anti-dumping duties could lead to more Chinese dumping in other markets, possibly including Pakistan, which may add further pressure in the quarters ahead.
  • In March 2025, the price of captive gas was raised to PKR 4,291 per MMBtu, including a levy of PKR 791 per MMBtu. This levy is set to increase by another 10% in July 2025, putting further pressure on input costs. As a result, the rising energy expenses are expected to weigh on the Company’s margins in the coming quarters. In response, EPCL is exploring alternative power sources, such as coal, solar, and the grid, and is actively engaging with the government ministries to ensure more favorable terms for gas supply used in captive power generation. As PVC and VCM plants are continuous-process facilities that cannot afford unscheduled shutdowns, they require a highly reliable power source
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Feb 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PVC prices dropped from USD 948/ton in June 2024 to USD 798/ton by year-end, which was a record low in recent years. This decline, driven by normalization of freight rates and supply chain constraints, put pressure on core delta which stood at USD 337/ton at the end of CY24, directly impacting EPCL’s margins and contributing to its poor financial performance.
  • Despite a tough year marked by a slowdown in the construction sector, domestic PVC demand grew by 8% due to cheaper imports from Indonesia & China. PVC sales volumes gradually increased on a QoQ basis by 10% on average due to EPCL's targeted pricing strategies, incentives and market confidence-building measures through which it sustained its market position.
  • Additionally, EPCL regained market share in caustic soda by onboarding new customers. Although domestic margins remained attractive, the Company maintained exports to support FX inflows. Supply to domestic Export-Oriented Units was sustained at 80%.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited (EPCL): EPCL: 4QCY24 EPS arrives at PKR 2.6, CY24 EPS to clocks-in at PKR 0.5 - By Taurus Research

Feb 11 2025


Taurus Securities


  • EPCL reported a revenue of PKR 21.2Bn in 4QCY24, reflecting an increase of 11% YoY and 6% QoQ. Gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 14%, a significant decline from 27% in 4QCY23 but a notable recovery from the 5% margin in 3QCY24. The yearly dip in margins can be attributed to rising raw material costs driven by a surge in gas prices and lower core delta.
  • After struggling with losses throughout the first three quarters of CY24, EPCL achieved a turnaround with a positive PAT of PKR 2.3Bn in 4QCY24 mainly attributable to tax reversals and higher margins.
  • However, EPCL’s annual PAT for CY24 fell sharply to PKR 610Mn, a 93% plunge from PKR 9.2Bn in CY23. Wherein, profitability was mainly hit by subdued PVC demand especially from the construction sector and margin pressures due to surge in gas prices.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL): 4QCY24 Result Review — Tax reversal & improved margins drive profitability - By AKD Research

Feb 11 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of PkR2.1bn (EPS: PkR2.3), a 40%YoY decline from PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR3.7) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, primarily due to a tax reversal and better-than-expected gross margins. However, the annual decline in earnings is driven by lower gross margins and higher finance cost. On a sequential basis, the recovery from a loss of PkR2.0bn (LPS: PkR0.8) in 3Q is mainly due to improved gross margins.
  • Revenue increased by 11%YoY to PkR21.3bn, up from PkR19.2bn in SPLY, as higher PVC offtakes offset the impact of lower product prices.
  • Gross margins contracted to 14.1% from 26.9% in SPLY, primarily due to higher energy costs. Notably, gas prices for captive and process increased by 45%/15%YoY, averaging PkR3,000/2,150/mmbtu in 4QCY24, respectively, compared to an avg. of PkR2,067/1,867/mmbtu in SPLY. However, gross margins remained higher than expected, and we await further clarity on this.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at Rs1.95, down 37% YoY - By Foundation Research

Feb 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited’s (EPCL PA) profit clocked-in at Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs1.95 in 4QCY24 against profit of Rs3.8bn (EPS Rs3.11) in 4QCY23.
  • This cumulates into CY24 profit of Rs610mn (EPS Rs0.67) compared to profit of Rs9.2bn (EPS Rs7.63) in CY23.
  • The company did not announce any dividend during CY24
Engro Polymer and Chemicals Limited (EPCL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR2.3 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 11 2025


Insight Securities


  • EPCL has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR2.1bn (EPS: PKR2.3) vs. PAT of PKR4.0bn (EPS: PKR4.4) in SPLY. The result is significantly above our expectation due to higher than estimated revenue, gross margins and tax credit in 4QCY24.
  • In 4QCY24, revenue increased by 11%/6% YoY/QoQ possibly due to better volumetric sales coupled with higher caustic soda prices.
  • Gross margins of the company clocked in at 14.1%, up by 860bps QoQ, possibly due to premium charged over import parity price as core delta remained flat QoQ. However, we await further clarity on this.
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL): 4QCY24 Preview: Loss expected as energy cost burden intensifies - By AKD Research

Feb 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. (EPCL) to post a loss of PkR634mn (LPS: PkR0.7) in 4QCY24E, compared to a profit of PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR3.7) in SPLY.
  • We expect gross margins to contract to 7.9%, mainly due to higher energy prices with avg. gas prices for captive and process risen by 45%/15%YoY, respectively.
  • CY24 cumulative loss is anticipated at PkR2.9bn (LPS: PkR3.4), compared to a profit of PkR8.9bn (EPS: PkR9.1) in SPLY.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Oil Marketing Companies: Sales upswing on better economics - By Foundation Research

Jul 2 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 7% YoY to settle at 16.3mn tons during FY25 given increase of 8% YoY in white oil sales driven by (1) pickup in economic activity amid sharply declining inflation and receding interest rates, (2) lower petroleum prices, and (3) favourable base effect. During FY25, MS/HSD sales enhanced 6/10% YoY whereas FO sales plummeted 23% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 8/39% YoY whereas PSO/APL volumes shrank 5/6% YoY in FY25. Whereas, sales jumped 8% YoY during Jun’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) witnessed a 7% YoY improvement during FY25 while white oil sales climbed by 8% YoY given strong demand amid pickup in economic activities and lower petroleum prices (avg. of Rs255.8/258.1/liter, down 9/9% YoY, respectively in FY25). Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 7.6/6.9mn tons, up 6/10% YoY in FY25.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales slumped 23% YoY to 806K tons in FY25 given lower demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Jul 1 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Mari Energies Limited (MARI) held its Conference call yesterday to discuss the company’s financial performance in 9MFY25 and future plans. Following are the key takeaways of the call:
  • Mari Energies Limited’s (MARI) profitability clocked-in at PKR 15.9Bn (EPS PKR 13.25, up 13% YoY) in 3QFY25 as compared to profit of PKR 14.1Bn (EPS PKR 11.76) in 3QFY24. In 9MFY25, profits contracted 10% YoY to PKR 46.3Bn (EPS PKR 38.56) vs. PKR 51.6Bn (EPS PKR 43.00) in the SPLY. This decline in profitability was on the back of 1) incremental royalty of 15%, 2) forced curtailment of indigenous production due to back pressure in the system, and 3) FX stability.
  • The management reiterated the company’s dominance in the exploration and production sector with an area under exploration and production of 97,166 square km while boasting 46 exploration blocks and 14 D&P licenses.
Economy: Large Scale Manufacturing Industrial activity posts modest growth - By Foundation Research

Jun 18 2025


Foundation Securities


  • LSM output witnessed an increase of 2.3% YoY in Apr’25 due to low base effect. During 10MFY25, output contracted 1.5% YoY given lagged second round effects of tight monetary stance and weak domestic demand. Prominent sectors that fueled the monthly progress were Automobiles (↑60.2%), Other transport Equipment (↑41.6%), Paper & Board (↑12.1%), Tobacco (↑9.1%), Textile (↑7.9%), Pharmaceuticals (↑7.5%), Coke & Petroleum Products (↑5.5%), Computer, electronics & Op prods (↑5.1%), Fertilizers (↑5.1%), Beverages (↑4.3%), Food (↑3.5%), Wood Products (↑3.0%), Electrical Equipment (↑2.6%), Rubber Products (↑2.3%), Non Metallic Mineral Products (↑1.9%) and Leather Products(↑1.8%). On the flipside, negative contributors were Machinery and Equipment (↓50.7%), Other Manufacturing (Football) (↓41.5%), Furniture (↓40.3%), Chemicals Products (↓10.8%), Wearing Apparel (↓8.6%), Iron & Steel Products (↓1.8%), and Fabricated Metal (↓0.1%).
  • Textile sector underwent a surge of 7.9% YoY as spinning/weaving reported enhancement of 8.7/0.4% YoY. Food production rose 3.5% YoY as sugar, bakery, & chocolate production shot up by 184% YoY during the month. Pharma output grew 7.5% YoY on the back of 6.7/10.3% YoY increase in tablets/syrups production.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery sets in - By Foundation Research

Jun 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell in the Fertilizer sector is beginning to end with urea dispatches up 5/67% YoY/MoM respectively to 418KT in May’25. However, fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend in 5MCY25 fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. During 5MCY25, Urea/DAP sales recorded a decline of 31/19% YoY to only 1,768/340KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined/inclined 28/92% YoY/MoM to 207KT in May’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded a jump of 86%/3.7x YoY and 76/84% MoM to 142/54KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 26/25% YoY/MoM to reach 15KT in May’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 2.4x YoY (flat MoM) in May’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake inclined 2.2/7.6x YoY and surged/dropped 27/57% MoM to 68/14KT, respectively, in May’25.
  • Fertilizer sales picked up pace in May’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake increased by 5/67% YoY/MoM in May’25, reaching 418KT. DAP offtake increased 2.4x YoY to 95KT, whereas no change was observed on a MoM basis. NP offtake jumped 60/6% YoY/MoM in May’25 to 76KT, while CAN offtake increased 147/86% YoY/MoM to 83KT. In May’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,316KT, an eight year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing and previously high stock levels. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 238KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 359/570/321/66KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in May’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 139/19KT.
Oil Marketing Companies: Expansion continues steadily - By Foundation Research

Jun 3 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 10% YoY (↑5% MoM) to 1.5mn tons during the month of May’25 driven by pickup in economic activity amid reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Productwise breakdown reveals that MS/HSD sales enhanced 15/5% YoY during May’25 whereas FO sales grew 16% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 23/31% YoY whereas PSO/APL volumes shrank 3/2% YoY during the month. Total sales during 11MFY25 settled at 14.8mn tons, up 7% YoY.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 10% YoY in May’25 in line with white oil sales that increased by the same magnitude. Sequentially, volumes went up 7%. Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 700/672K tons, up 15/5% YoY (↑6/8% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD declined marginally to PKR 254/257/ltr (down PKR 2/3/ltr). This takes 11MFY25 sales of MS/HSD to 6.9/6.3mn tons, reflecting growth of 7/10% YoY respectively.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales rose 16% YoY to 80K tons in May’25. During 11MFY25, FO sales fell 28% YoY amid lower demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery still far away - By Foundation Research

May 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell continues for the Fertilizer sector with urea dispatches recorded at only 1,350KT (↓37% YoY) in 4MCY25. Fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. In Apr’25, Urea sales recorded a decline of 24/18% YoY/MoM to only 251KT, a five-year low. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined 52/42% MoM/YoY to 108KT in Apr’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded an incline of 7/56% YoY and 38/14% MoM to 81/42KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 17% MoM but picked up 11.2x YoY to reach 20KT in Apr’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 3/96% YoY/MoM in Apr’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake declined/inclined 34%/3.1x YoY and surged 2.0/3.8x MoM to 54/31KT, respectively.
  • Fertilizer sales remained lethargic in Apr’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake declined by 24/18% YoY/MoM in Apr’25, reaching 251KT. DAP offtake increased 3/96% YoY/MoM to 95KT. NP offtake remained jumped 46/31% YoY/MoM in Apr’25 to 71KT, while CAN offtake increased 28/15% YoY/MoM to 45KT. In Apr’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,104KT, a five year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 204KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 292/487/279/46KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in Apr’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 129/32KT.
  • EFERT offtake picked up: EFERT/FATIMA urea offtake inclined 7/56% YoY, respectively, to reach 81/42KT, in Apr’25. We attribute this incline to the seasonality factor and company incentives to clear inventory. AGL urea offtake showed a massive jump of 11.2x YoY, due to low-base effect. Where the whole industry has undergone a jump in offtake, FFC experienced a decline in Urea dispatches to the tune of 52/42% YoY/MoM to reach 108KT
Oil Marketing Companies: Fuel demand picks up further - By Foundation Research

May 5 2025


Foundation Securities


  • POL sales surged 32% YoY (↑20% MoM) to 1.5mn tons during the month of Apr’25 driven by the low base effect and pickup in economic activities amid reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Product-wise breakdown reveals that MS/HSD sales enhanced 24/33% YoY during Apr’25 whereas FO sales grew 182% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/APL/WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 12/28/23/76% YoY during the month. Total sales during 10MFY25 settled at 13.2mn tons, up 6% YoY.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 32% YoY in Apr’25 while white oil sales increased 28% YoY. Sequentially, volumes went up 20%. Productwise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 660/622K tons, up 24/33% YoY (↑14/28% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD remained stable MoM. This takes 10MFY25 sales of MS/HSD to 6.2/5.6mn tons, reflecting growth of 6/11% YoY respectively.
  • In the black oil segment, FO sales shot up 182% YoY to 84K tons during Apr’25. During 10MFY25, FO sales fell 31% YoY amid lower demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC): 3QFY25 EPS recorded at PKR 11.0/sh, DPS PKR 3.0/sh - By Foundation Research

Apr 30 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC PA) earnings in 3QFY25 remained stable at PKR 47.1Bn (EPS PKR 11.0/sh) vs. PKR 47.8Bn (EPS PKR 11.1/sh) during 3QFY24. While in 9MFY25, the profitability clocked-in at PKR 129.6Bn (EPS PKR 30.1/sh), down 24% YoY, against PKR 171.1Bn (EPS PKR 39.8/sh) in the SPLY. The earnings are in-line with our expectation.
  • The result was accompanied by a cash payout of PKR 3.0/sh taking 9M payout to PKR 10.1/sh.
  • The bottom-line in 3QFY25 remained stable despite a 17% YoY decline in gross profit. We attribute this to (1) stable PKR-USD parity, (2) steady other income (↑5% YoY), and (3) effective tax rate of only 30% against 41% in the SPLY which we believe is due to depletion.
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