Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): 4QCY24 Preview: Payout to remain higher despite 21%YoY decline in profitability - By AKD Research

Feb 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • 4QCY24E, down 21%YoY. We expect company to announce final dividend of PkR5.0/sh.
  • Decline of 8%/40%YoY in fertilizer and polymer businesses is expected to drive the overall earnings drop.
  • CY24 cumulative profitability is anticipated at PkR18.9bn (EPS: PkR15.7), down 7%YoY. We maintain our ’BUY’ stance on ENGROH with Dec’25 TP of PkR301/sh.
Engro Holdings (ENGROH): Earnings and Dividend Revised Down; Buy Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Mar 18 2025


Topline Securities


  • We revise down our earnings estimate for Engro Holdings (ENGROH) for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 27% to Rs17.5/share and Rs20/share, respectively. The downward adjustment in earnings outlook is on the back of revision in earnings of Engro Fertilizers and after incorporating expiry of Engro Vopak Terminal from mid 2026.
  • Engro Connect Tower Deal not yet incorporated: We have not incorporated earnings contribution from recently announced deal of Engro Connect as transaction is yet to be completed. However, based on our estimates, Engro Connect (Tower Company) will achieve breakeven in Year 1 of its operations and then will post earnings of Rs1.6bn and Rs5.3bn in Year 2 and Year 3, respectively, translating into per share earnings contribution of Rs1.3 and Rs4.4 respectively. The business will turn in profit due to expectations of falling interest expense on the back of sliding debt levels due to stronger cashflows of the business (EBITDA 60%).
  • Dividend Outlook Revised Down: In our previous estimates, we anticipated cash received from thermal assets sale transaction (Rs25bn) as part of one-off dividend in 2025. However, after acquisition of Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited (PMCL) tower business, we believe, these cashflows will be used to finance equity portion of the deal.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): Outlook remains positive; Energy portfolio divestment underway - By JS Research

Mar 5 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH) recently held analyst briefing session apprised that the financial results presented are based on the pre-merger accounts of Dawood Hercules (DAWH). Since the restructuring transaction structure took effect on January 1, 2025.
  • Under the new scheme of restructuring, EFERT (now 56% directly held by ENGROH versus indirect holding of 22.49% previously), is expected to drive earnings outlook for ENGROH. Furthermore, expansions in the tower segment coupled with lower interest rates to further support earnings.
  • The transaction of divestment of thermal assets portfolio is currently in-progress subject to certain regulatory approvals. The Thermal asset portfolio of the group, under Engro Energy Ltd, contains Engro Powergen Qadirpur Ltd, Engro Powergen Thar Ltd and Sindh Engro Coal Mining Co. Ltd. Also, the company is in process of divesting Engro Eximp Agriproducts (Pvt) Ltd.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Mar 5 2025


Taurus Securities


  • ENGROH’s (formerly known as Dawood Hercules Corporation Limited) management presented CY24 results of the Company where they specifically highlighted the ongoing process of divesting its various businesses i.e. Engro Eximp AgriProducts Ltd, Engro Powergen Qadirpur Ltd, Engro Powergen Thar (Pvt.) Ltd and Sindh Engro Coal Mining Ltd.
  • Regarding the performance of the group, ENGROH’s investment portfolio stood at PKR 112Bn (PKR 95.5Bn for Engro and PKR 16.5Bn in other listed equities) as on December 31, 2024. Other income (comprised of interest, dividend and quoted shares income) dropped during CY24 owing to bumper dividend distribution in CY23 which had limit the Company to generate higher return on investments during CY24.
  • On the basis of segment results, the management told that EFERT achieved highest ever profitability in CY24 due to better retention prices and cost optimization despite slowdown in operational activities amid major turnaround of its EnVen plant and decline in Urea sales. Further, the management quoted ECPL’s performance as worst ever in history, reflecting a drastic drop in demand for PVC and Ethylene due to lower construction demand, decline in global commodity prices and higher volume of imported PVC.
Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 5 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss their CY24 performance and future outlook. Here are the key highlights from the call:
  • Management confirmed that the recently disclosed financial results reflect the previous Dawood Hercules holding structure. From the next quarter, financials will be reported under the new structure, as the merger became effective on Jan 1, 2025.
  • On an Engro Corp basis, consolidated earnings from continuing operations increased by 7%YoY to PkR21bn (EPS: PkR17 @ 1,204mn shares) in CY24. The said growth was driven by higher urea prices and cost efficiencies, which offset the weaker performance of polymer segment and higher finance costs
Engro Holdings (ENGROH): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs5.42, up 10x YoY - Earnings lower than industry expectations - By Topline Research

Mar 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Holdings (ENGROH) announced its 4Q2024 results today, reporting a profit attributable to equity owners of Rs6.5bn (EPS of Rs5.42), down 10x YoY.
  • This took 2024 earnings to Rs12.8bn (EPS of Rs10.70) down 14% YoY.
  • To note, these are results of Dawood Hercules (DAWH), while the results of Engro Holding (post transaction) will be shared from Mar quarter onwards as effective date of the transaction structure was Jan 01, 2025.
Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): 4QCY24 Result Review — Earning increased; dividend skipped amid merger - By AKD Research

Mar 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH) announced its 4QCY24 results, reporting consolidated earnings of PkR5.8bn (EPS: PkR4.8) vs. PkR5.3bn (EPS: PkR4.4) in SPLY. This result pertains to previous Dawood Hercules’s holding structure and will be reported on new structure from the next quarter, as the merger became effective on Jan 1, 2025. Furthermore, company opted to skipped the final dividend, which we attribute to the ongoing merger.
  • Fertilizer business (EFERT) reported 8%YoY decline in earnings to PkR10.3bn in 4QCY24, primarily due to higher selling & distribution expenses and lower other income. While segment’s revenue grew on an annual basis, driven by a 17%/24%YoY rise in urea offtakes and prices, gross margins contracted by 3.8ppts YoY, as the 56%YoY surge in input gas prices outpaced the growth in selling prices.
  • EPCL’s profitability declined by 40%YoY in 4QCY24, mainly due to lower gross margins and higher finance costs. Wherein, a 45%/15%YoY increase in captive and process gas prices, respectively, led to a 12.8ppt YoY contraction in gross margins during 4Q. Additionally, finance costs surged 7.1x YoY to PkR1.8bn, largely due to a one-off reversal in SPLY and an increase in total outstanding debt.
Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): 4QCY24 Preview: Payout to remain higher despite 21%YoY decline in profitability - By AKD Research

Feb 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • 4QCY24E, down 21%YoY. We expect company to announce final dividend of PkR5.0/sh.
  • Decline of 8%/40%YoY in fertilizer and polymer businesses is expected to drive the overall earnings drop.
  • CY24 cumulative profitability is anticipated at PkR18.9bn (EPS: PkR15.7), down 7%YoY. We maintain our ’BUY’ stance on ENGROH with Dec’25 TP of PkR301/sh.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Economy: Tariff rationalization to bring in competitiveness - By AKD Research

Jul 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Govt. has issued SROs pertaining to Additional Customs Duty (ACD) and Regulatory Duties (RDs), in line with National Tariff Policy 2025–30.
  • ACD has been revised to 0%, 2%, 4%, and 6% (previously 2%, 4%, 6%, and 7%), while RD has been removed on multiple PCT codes, with the maximum RD rate reduced from 90% to 50%.
  • Sector-wise, margins for auto assemblers are likely to normalize from recent highs, while chemical, steel, and textile spinning/weaving sectors would face margin pressures.
Pakistan Cement: Cement demand to rise on PSDP push and construction revival in FY26 - By AKD Research

Jul 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cement dispatches reached 46.22mn tons in FY25, an increase of 2%YoY, driven by higher export volumes, while domestic sales fell to eight-year low.
  • Industry-wide capacity utilization increased to 54.8% during FY25 (up 0.2ppt YoY).
  • We expect domestic offtakes to grow by 6%YoY in FY26, amid easing interest rates, pick-up in government spending, and sustained demand from the real estate sector.
Oil Marketing Companies: OMC offtakes conclude FY25 on strong footing - By AKD Research

Jul 2 2025


AKD Securities


  • OMC volumetric sales for FY25 reached 16.3mn tons, higher by 7%YoY. Specifically, MS/HSD offtakes stood at 7.6mn/6.9mn tons for the full year, up 6%/10%YoY.
  • We have a ‘BUY’ call for PSO and APL with Dec’25 TP of PkR729/850 per share, with DY of 5.1%/6.1% for FY26E
  • Our reasons for liking include anticipated revision in OMC margins during FY26 alongside volumetric recovery, while resolution of circular debt is to favorably impact the state-owned OMC i.e. PSO.
Gul Ahmed Textiles Mills Ltd. (GATM): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Gul Ahmed Textiles Mills Ltd. (GATM) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company:
  • To recall, company posted sales of PkR119.1bn in 9MFY25 (up by 13.3%YoY) due to higher export sales, while earnings declined to PkR2.1bn (down 7.5%YoY), due to cost pressures.
  • Gross margins contracted to 10.9% during the period compared to 11.5% in 9MFY24. The said decline is mainly due to higher energy costs.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook
  • The company reported net sales of PkR132.3bn during 9MFY25, down 7%YoY, primarily due to a combination of lower production of 29.3mn boe (down 2%YoY) and softening wellhead prices during the period.
  • Net profit declined by 10%YoY to PkR46.3bn (EPS: PkR38.6), with the contraction attributed to the impact of additional royalty applied to Mari D&P lease during the year.
Economy: KSE-100 outperforms all asset classes for second consecutive year - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Aggressive monetary easing, supported by tight fiscal policy and a strong external account, contributed to a 60.1% return for the KSE-100 in FY25, as it emerged as the bestperforming asset class for the second consecutive year.
  • Banks contributed the most to KSE-100 with 15,160 points during FY25, followed by Fertilizer with 8,292 points, E&Ps with 6,845 points, and Cement with 5,596 points.
  • Mutual Funds turned net buyers in FY25 after three consecutive years of selling, absorbed most of the selling by Foreigners.
Al-Ghazi Tractors Ltd. (AGTL): CY24 and 1QCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jun 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Al-Ghazi Tractors Ltd. (AGTL) held its analyst briefing today to discuss CY24/1QCY25 results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key highlights:
  • Company posted earnings of PkR3.5bn (EPS: PkR61.1) in CY24, compared to PkR2.6bn (EPS: PkR45.1) in CY23. The said increase was primarily attributable to improved gross margins to 24% during the period compared to 19% during SPLY.
  • Moreover, operating expenses saw a 50%YoY increase in CY24 following the company's transition from its old ERP system to SAP S/4HANA, as well due to free deliveries for tractors sold in Punjab’s Green Tractor Scheme.
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