Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): CY24 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 14 2025


Insight Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited conducted analyst briefing to discuss its financial results. We have summarized the following key takeaways from the briefing:
  • In CY24, EFERT’s profitability has witnessed an increase of 7.9% YoY, to clock in at PKR28.2bn (EPS: PKR21.2), compared to PKR26.2bn (EPS: PKR19.61) in SPLY. This increase is mainly attributable to better product prices.
  • On higher selling and distribution expense in 4QCY24, management commented its attributable to reclassification of cost from COGS to S&D expense coupled with higher inventory holding cost.
Pakistan Fertilizer: FFC/ EFERT: 2QCY25 to see recovery in earnings - By JS Research

Jul 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QCY25 earnings estimates for Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT), where we expect the earnings to improve led by increase in Urea and DAP volume by 3% YoY and 15% YoY.
  • FFC is expected to post EPS of Rs14.5 with DPS of Rs11.25. Despite weaker sales, FFC is expected to remain in a better position compared to peers led by comparative advantage amid lower gas tariff coupled with higher dividend income during the quarter.
  • EFERT is likely to post recovery in earnings which remained under pressure last year amid Enven plant turnaround. However continued discounts and higher inventory pileups will continue to impact company’s operations. Accordingly, the company is likely to report an EPS of Rs4.6 (3.7x higher YoY), along with a dividend of Rs4.5/share.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): Result Review: EFERT 1QCY25 EPS Rs2.17, DPS Rs2.25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 22 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) announced its 1QCY25 result today wherein the company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs2.9bn (EPS of Rs2.2) as compared to net earnings of Rs7.8bn (EPS of Rs5.8) during same period last year, down by 63%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
  • Along with the result, company announced interim cash dividend of Rs2.25/share.
  • During 1QCY25, net revenue clocked in at Rs30bn, down by 59%YoY. The decline is mainly attributed to lower urea sales (down 53%YoY).
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 1QCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.2; PAT down 63%YoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 22 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25: EPS: PKR 2.2; DPS: 2.3; PAT: PKR 2.9Bn, down 63%YoY – above expectations
  • Net sales clocked-in at ~PKR 30Bn in 1QCY25, down significantly by 59%YoY on the back of decrease in Urea and DAP offtake by 58%YoY and 78%YoY, respectively. Gross margins arrived at 35% in 1QCY25, up 12pptsYoY due to improving cost efficiencies. However, EFERT’s market share dropped (down 10ppts to 23% in 1QCY25) amid amalgamation of FFBL into FFC (took effect from 3QCY24) which has forced the company to sell Urea bags at significantly discounted prices in order to overcome the pressure of continuous fall in market share i.e. highest Urea bag prices (impact of availing higher feed gas i.e. PKR 1,597/MMBTU) compared to the peer companies. Earnings arrived at PKR 2.9Bn in 1QCY25, down 63%YoY due to massive surge in finance cost (up 5.8xYoY) amid increase in borrowings to fund the ongoing “Pressure Enhancement Project”. Lastly, the Company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.3/sh. for the quarter.
Engro Fertilizers (EFERT):1Q2025 EPS at Rs2.17, down 63% YoY (earnings higher than expectations) - By Topline Research

Apr 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) announced its 1Q2025 financial result today, wherein the company recorded a consolidated quarterly profits of Rs2.9bn (EPS: Rs2.17), down 63% YoY and 75% QoQ.
  • Along with the results, the company also declared cash dividend of Rs2.25/share, in-line with market expectations.
  • The 1Q2025 result came higher than our expectations due to higher-than-expected gross margins
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows.
  • To recall, in 4QCY24 the company has posted consolidated earnings of PKR 7.7/share (PKR 21.16/share in CY24). Alongside the result, the company announced a cash dividend of PKR 8.00/share (PKR 21.50/share in CY24).
  • The company highlighted the YoY improvement in annual performance, from revenue to EPS. However, quarterly results showed a 7.8% YoY decline in PAT, driven by discounts offered to dealers. The gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 35%, up from 31% in the previous quarter, attributed to the reclassification of expenses for better presentation.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): CY24 Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 14 2025


Insight Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited conducted analyst briefing to discuss its financial results. We have summarized the following key takeaways from the briefing:
  • In CY24, EFERT’s profitability has witnessed an increase of 7.9% YoY, to clock in at PKR28.2bn (EPS: PKR21.2), compared to PKR26.2bn (EPS: PKR19.61) in SPLY. This increase is mainly attributable to better product prices.
  • On higher selling and distribution expense in 4QCY24, management commented its attributable to reclassification of cost from COGS to S&D expense coupled with higher inventory holding cost.
Engro Fertilizers (EFERT): 4Q2024 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) held its 4Q2024 Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance and future outlook.
  • During 4Q2024, selling and distribution cost was abruptly increased due to some reclassification of expenses along with impact of axel load and warehouse related costs, respectively.
  • The company has launched a Digital Platform named ugAi with AI enable services that allow the farmers to book inventory directly from company at defined rates and quality products.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 Result Review — Higher distribution & finance cost dent earnings - By AKD Research

Feb 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of PkR10.3bn (EPS: PkR7.7), an 8%YoY decline from PkR11.1bn (EPS: PkR8.3) in SPLY. The result is largely in line with our expectations. However, the annual drop in earnings is due to higher distribution expenses and lower other income. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR8.0/sh, taking full-year dividend to PkR21.5/sh.
  • Revenue rose by 13%YoY to PkR84.8bn in 4QCY24 vs. PkR75.2bn in SPLY, supported by a 17%YoY increase in urea offtakes and 24%YoY rise in prices. However, DAP and NP sales declined by 5%YoY and 74%YoY, respectively.
  • Gross margins contracted to 34.9% from 38.7% in SPLY, as 56%YoY rise in input gas prices outpaced the increase in selling prices.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): Result Review: EFERT 4QCY24 EPS Rs7.7, DPS Rs8 - By Sherman Research

Feb 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT) announced its 4QCY24 result today wherein the company posted consolidated net earnings of Rs10.3bn (EPS of Rs7.7) as compared to net earnings of Rs11.2bn (EPS of Rs8.3) during same period last year, down by 8%YoY. The result came lower than our estimate due to higher than expected operating expenses. ? Along with the result, company announced final cash dividend of Rs8/share taking cumulative dividend to Rs21.5/share for CY24 (payout ratio of 100%).
  • During 4QCY24, net revenue clocked in at Rs85bn, up by 13%YoY. The increase is mainly attributed to higher urea sales (up by 17%YoY) as company offered discount of Rs100/bag to regain its market share during the period.
  • EFERT’s gross margin clocked in at 35% during 4QCY24 as compared to 39% during the same period last year (down by 4ppt). The decline in margins is due to higher gas price during the period.
Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 EPS clocked-in at PKR 7.7, DPS PKR 8.0, taking CY24 EPS to PKR 21.2 - By Foundation Research

Feb 10 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Fertilizer Limited (EFERT PA) posted a profit of PKR 10.3bn (EPS PKR 7.7) in 4QCY24, against profit of PKR 11.1bn (EPS PKR 8.3) in 4QCY23, undergoing a decrease of 8% YoY. This cumulates to CY24 profitability of PKR 28.3bn (EPS PKR 21.2), up 8% YoY, vs. PKR 26.2bn (EPS PKR 19.6) in CY23.
  • Result is also accompanied by a final cash dividend of PKR 8.0/sh, which takes CY24 payout to PKR 21.5/sh.
  • In 4QCY24, PAT decreased/increased 8/20% YoY/QoQ. The decline is due to a 2.0x YoY jump in distribution costs and 5.4x YoY incline in finance cost. Profitability increased QoQ because of higher off-take compared to previous quarter, however distribution costs saw a jump of 4.9x. We attribute increase in CY24 profitability (↑8% YoY) to (1) higher other income (up 5.6x YoY) and (2) lower tax expense (ETR of 37% in CY24).
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
MARI Petroleum Company (MARI): Corporate Briefing Session - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • MARI Petroleum Company (MARI PA) has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing.
  • During 9MFY25, MARI has posted net sales and PAT of PKR132.3bn and PKR46.3bn (EPS: PKR38.6), down by 7% and 10% YoY, respectively. The decrease in earnings is mainly attributable to lower production due to forced curtailment.
  • Company’s production clocked in at 29.32MMBOE in 9MFY25, down by 2% YoY.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Energy chain Fixed charges hiked by 50% - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent announcement, OGRA announced 50% hike in fixed charges for both protected and non-protected domestic consumers. Households consuming up to 1.5hm/month will now pay PKR1,500 up from PKR1,000, while higher consumption slabs will face fixed charges of PKR3,000 up from PKR2,000. Protected consumers will also see a rise in fixed charges, from PKR400 to PKR600 per month. Meanwhile, gas tariffs for the power sector have increased from PKR1,050/mmbtu to PKR1,225/mmbtu, and for general industry (process), rates have gone up ~7% to PKR2,300/mmbtu.
  • The energy sector has been on a cash flow recovery path over the past years, supported by policy reforms aimed at improving financial sustainability. A key driver has been the rationalization of tariffs, further aided by fixed monthly charges for residential consumers, which has helped Sui companies to reduce revenue shortfalls. Additionally, the inclusion of RLNG diversion costs in tariff structures has further eased cash flow constraints across the value chain. These reforms have translated into a sharp recovery in receivables for upstream players, with PPL and OGDC recording improved recovery rates of 88% and 90% in 9MFY25, up from 53% and 49% in the same period last year. However, this trend reversed slightly in the latest quarter, likely due to forced curtailments triggered by higher LNG imports. We believe the hike in fixed charges would negate the impact of higher LNG imports.
Economy: Jun’25 CPI likely to clock in at 3.2% - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~3.2% for Jun’25, compared to ~12.6% in SPLY and ~3.5% in preceding month. This will take FY25 average inflation to ~4.6% compared to 23.9% in FY24. On MoM basis, inflation is likely to inch up by ~0.2% MoM, mainly driven by ~0.4% housing index due to higher monthly FCA. On the flip side, food basket is expected to depict a decline of ~0.5% MoM, amid decline in prices of chicken price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomatoes (59.3↑%), Potatoes (26.4↑%), Eggs (7.4%↑), Fresh fruits (5.7%↑) & Onions (5.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Chicken (32.5%↓), Fresh vegetables (12.2%↓), LPG (6.6%↓), Vegetable ghee (0.4%↓) & Cooking oil (0.4%↓).
  • The FY26 budget continues the fiscal consolidation path pursued over the past couple of years, under the guidance of the IMF. The budget is broadly noninflationary, with minimal changes to the taxation structure and no significant new taxes, except for some adjustments in petroleum related levies. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to remain within the SBP’s target range of 5%–7%. Based on our estimates, average inflation for FY26 is projected at around 5.4%, assuming no major shocks to the domestic supply chain or global commodity prices. However, the recently announced increase in fixed charges for domestic gas consumers is expected to be inflationary. With gas holding a weight of ~1.1% in the urban CPI basket, we estimate this hike will lead to a ~23% MoM increase in the gas index, translating into a ~0.85bps uptick in headline inflation. On interest rate front, we expect the SBP to maintain status quo, as the full transmission of 11ppts reduction in policy rate has yet to be reflected in real economy.
Fertilizer: Phosphatic fertilizer prices takes off -- By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • The global price of di -ammonium phosphate (DAP), the second most consumed fertilizer after urea, has increased by over 18 % since the beginning of 2025 , reaching US $720/ton . This rise is driven by several factors, including supply -side challenges due to China's export restrictions , higher energy costs, geopolitical tensions and strong demand particularly due to seasonal agricultural activity . The price spike was further accelerated by geopolitical event post Israeli attack on Iran's gas infrastructure, which also disrupted fertilizer markets .
  • Despite the sharp increase in DAP prices, the cost of key raw materials like phosphoric acid and phosphate rock has remained relatively stable . With gas prices fixed for local manufacturers, this expansion in margins significantly benefits DAP & NP producers, helping them to neutralize some of the impact of lower urea volumes caused by unfavorable agronomic conditions . Historically, we have seen that NP prices have a strong correlation with DAP . Given that, companies engaged in DAP & NP production are more favorably positioned in the current environment . We highlight FFC and FATIMA are well positioned to play this pricing trend.
  • The DAP market has experienced a significant price rally in recent months, with prices surging by ~18 % since the beginning of the year, reaching US $720/ton in Jun’25 . This increase has been driven by a combination of factors, including supply shortages, geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and stronger demand from regional markets .
Pakistan Textile: After the hit, a hint of relief - By Insight Research

Jun 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • Despite facing challenging times, Pakistan’s textile sector remained resilient with value added sector depicting healthy volumetric growth and overall sector contributing ~56% to total exports in 11MFY25. However, listed players has underperformed the index as operating environment was not very conducive for the sector, mainly due to elevated energy costs, shift to the normal tax regime and policy lapses for local industries. Additionally, subdued demand from the European market kept prices under pressure and local cotton production has fallen significantly by ~34% compared to SPLY, forcing the industry to rely more on imported cotton, which ultimately hurt the spinning sector.
  • Despite ongoing challenges, we believe most textile stocks are trading at a discount and offers attractive valuations compared to historical multiples. Recent developments such as sharp interest rate cuts, reduction in electricity tariffs coupled with the potential shift in global trade amid US tariffs, may induce a gradual recovery for textile sector. Within our coverage, ILP and NML remain our top picks.
  • Pakistan, which directs ~17%–18% of its total exports and ~25% of its textile exports to the U.S. market, remains relatively well-positioned compared to regional peers under the current U.S. tariff structure. For reference, Pakistan’s tariff rate stands at (29%), while competing countries face higher effective tariffs rates, including China (145%), Bangladesh (37%), Vietnam (46%), and Sri Lanka (44%).
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept policy rate unchanged at 11%, inline with market expectations. The committee noted that inflation recorded an uptick to clock in at ~3.5% in May’25, as expected and is likely to inch up in coming months and stabilize in target range during FY26. The impact of policy rate cut is kicking in as reflected in improved economic activity. The committee highlighted that trade deficit and shortfalls in planned inflows posses risk to external account. The MPC further elaborated that some of the actions announced in budget might have negative impact on trade balance.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes provisional GDP growth of 2.7% for FY25 and ambitious growth target of 4.2% for FY26, successful disbursement of US$1bn from IMF after completion of first review of EFF program, revised estimate of primary deficit at 2.2% of GDP and some decline in agriculture output compared to initial estimates.
  • Overall, MPC believes the current real policy rate is sufficiently positive to keep inflation within the target range of 5%–7%. However, timely receipt of planned inflows, achieving targeted fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms are crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Moreover, fluid geopolitical situation and its impact on oil prices will remain a key variable for Pakistan.
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • PSO has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing
  • Regarding power circular debt resolution, management highlighted that there is no clarity on the amount PSO will receive post this settlement.
  • On market share, the company mentioned that it declined due to rising competition and discount offered by competitors. Management expect 3%- 5% growth in retail fuel offtake in FY26.

Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Oil Marketing Companies: OGRA approves ERR for sui companies - By Insight Research

May 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, OGRA has decided a 6.6% increase in gas prices for SNGPL, while reducing SSGCL prices by 5.9%, effective from July’25. OGRA has submitted its decision to the federal government for the issuance of a formal notification outlining category wise consumer gas prices. As per legal requirements, the federal government is expected to finalize the category-wise pricing within 40 days. We believe that the impact of consumers will be marginal due to minimal hike in overall prices. However, RLNG diversion volume remains a key component to look for.
  • OGRA approves meager increase for SNGPL; price set at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU The OGRA has issued its decision on SNGPL petition, where OGRA approved a tariff increase of PKR116.9/MMBTU, setting the prescribed price at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU, which represents a 6.6% increase from the current rate against SNGPL's request for an increase of PKR707/MMBTU. This revised revenue requirement stems from a PKR62.2bn downward adjustment in operating expenses, wherein major deviations stems from adjustment in cost of gas and the disallowance of PKR95.9bn on account of late payment surcharge. Notably, OGRA based its calculations on different oil price and exchange rate assumptions of PKR75.3/bbl for crude and PKR280/US$. SNGPL, in contrast, assumed PKR77/bbl, and PKR287.5/US$, respectively. Furthermore, OGRA revised the RLNG volume downwards to 75,556 MMCF, compared to SNGPL's projected 88,185 MMCF. This adjustment is due to confirmation from PLL that arrangements have been made with ENI to divert cargoes outside Pakistan from Jul’25 to Dec’25. Additionally, while SNGPL had requested PKR317.7/MMBTU for RLNG cost of services for the year, OGRA approved PKR210/MMBTU. This adjustment assumes a reduced RLNG input volume of 325,677 MMBTU, against SNGPL's projected 343,960 MMBTU, amid aforementioned diversion.
  • OGRA has finalized its decision on SSGCL’s petition for FY2025–26, against SSGCL's proposed hike of PKR2,399/MMBTU to bridge a revenue shortfall of PKR888.6bn (including PKR498.7bn from prior years), OGRA has instead recommended a reduction of PKR103.95/MMBTU. This brings the prescribed price down to PKR1,658.56/MMBTU, a 5.9% decrease. OGRA has revised SSGCL’s net revenue requirement down to PKR319.9bn with only PKR34.2bn allowed as prior year adjustment. Major downward revisions include PKR62.2bn in operating expenses. OGRA’s estimates factor in PKR75/bbl for oil and PKR280/US$, contrasting with SSGCL’s assumptions of PKR72.5/bbl and PKR292.
Economy: Ceasefire Ignites Investor Confidence in PSX - By Insight Research

May 12 2025


Insight Securities


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a market-wide trading halt today as the KSE-100 Index skyrocketed by 9,475 points (+8.84%) to close at 116,650.12, triggering the index-based halt mechanism on the upside. The rally was driven by a powerful combination of regional peace prospects, fresh IMF disbursements, and improving global trade sentiment following the resolution of the U.S.-China tariff standoff.
  • The Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both nations met today at 12:00 PM to formalize and reinforce the recently agreed ceasefire.
  • The diplomatic engagement is being seen as a major de-escalation step, improving regional security outlook and investor sentiment.
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