D.G Khan Cement (DGKC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 17 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • DGKC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 2,012mn (EPS: PKR 4.59) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 150% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 21,458mn, indicating an increase of 40%QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 21%, representing an increase of 1.74ppt QoQ and 8.56ppt YoY.
D.G Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 25 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • D.G Khan Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,762 million (EPS: PKR 4.02) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 49.26% YoY.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 19,147 million, up 34.21% YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 20.10%, down 5.4ppt YoY.
Pakistan Cement: MLCF, CHCC & DGKC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF), D.G Khan Cement Company Ltd (DGKC), and Cherat Cement Company Ltd (CHCC).
  • We expect MLCF and CHCC to post earnings of Rs1.85/share and Rs7.9/share, reflecting a YoY growth of 71% and 24% respectively, primarily driven by improved margins and higher other income. Likewise, DGKC is projected to report EPS of Rs3.7, up 37% YoY, supported by higher dispatches (+36%) and notable reduction in financial charges due to easing.
  • Cement prices in the North region continue to recover, rising Rs120/bag since late Feb-2025, which is likely to bode well for all three companies. Nevertheless, a potential increase in limestone royalty charge bringing it in-line with Punjab players is expected to weigh on earnings for CHCC with a potential negative impact of Rs9.5/sh on our FY26 earnings forecast
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): 2QFY25 EPS clocked in at Rs6.21, up 6.9x YoY - By Foundation Research

Feb 20 2025


Foundation Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC PA) profitability clocked-in at Rs2.7bn (EPS Rs6.21), up 3.4x QoQ. Similarly, profits soared 6.9x YoY in 2QFY25 as compared to profit of Rs394mn in 2QFY24. This takes 1HFY25 profit to Rs3.5bn (EPS Rs8.0), as against profit of Rs1.0bn (EPS Rs2.41) in 1HFY24. The company did not announce an interim dividend.
  • Revenue of the company was higher than our expectations while the cost of goods sold came in line with our estimates. Variance in the topline could be a result of higher than expected retention prices on both local and export fronts. This has resulted in realized gross margins of over 25% vs. our anticipation of 19% in 2QFY25.
  • DGKC’s local/export sales surged by 38/17% QoQ on the back of improved local demand amid seasonality factor and higher export volumes.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC): 2QFY25 Result Review — Earnings surge on higher offtakes & prices - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 2QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR2.7bn (EPS: PkR6.2), a 6.8xYoY increase from the NPAT of PkR403mn (EPS: PkR0.9) in SPLY. Earnings came above our expectations, mainly due to higher-thanexpected retention prices and lower taxation.
  • Revenue increased by 19%YoY to PkR21.7bn, compared to PkR18.3bn in SPLY, driven by 15%YoY increase in total offtakes to 1.54mn tons and a 6%YoY rise in retention prices.
  • Gross margins improved to 25.1% from 12.8% in SPLY, supported by increased retention prices and 7%YoY decline in weighted avg. coal prices for the North amid lower local coal prices.
D.G Khan Cement (DGKC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 17 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • DGKC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 2,012mn (EPS: PKR 4.59) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 150% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 21,458mn, indicating an increase of 40%QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 21%, representing an increase of 1.74ppt QoQ and 8.56ppt YoY.
Pakistan Cement: DGKC, KOHC & ACPL: 2QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Jan 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QFY25 earning expectations for DG Khan Cement Company Ltd (DGKC), Kohat Cement Company Ltd (KOHC), and Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd (ACPL). We anticipate KOHC and DGKC to report a YoY increase in earnings, driven by higher retention prices in the North and reduced costs of Afghan and local coal. Conversely, ACPL is expected to see a YoY decline in earnings due to slightly narrower margins and a normalized effective tax rate (4% in 2QFY24).
  • KOHC is expected to post an EPS of Rs13.46, up 19% YoY whereas DGKC is expected to post an EPS of Rs4.51, up 5x YoY. We expect ACPL to post an EPS of Rs1.91, a 47% YoY decrease.
  • Cement prices in the North region have stabilized after a gradual decline in late December and early January. We anticipate prices to strengthen further as cement demand increases in the summer months and the effects of monetary easing materialize. DGKC is our preferred pick among these stocks
D.G Khan Cement Company Ltd (DGKC): Beneficiary of the monetary easing cycle; Buy – By JS Research

Jan 14 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating for D.G Khan Cement Company Ltd (DGKC) with a Dec-2025 SoTP based target price of Rs140 for the stock, with Rs66 attributed to the company’s diversified equity portfolio, offering a potential upside of 40%.
  • We expect DGKC to be the key beneficiary of the monetary easing cycle in our Cement universe as we project the company’s interest coverage ratio to improve significantly, rising from 1.37x in FY24 to 2.28x in FY25E and further to 3.9x in FY26E.
  • We highlight that DGKC’s core business margins, which remained sticky for quite some time, are expected to improve due to the gradual convergence of North and South prices and a better sales mix.

AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research

May 27 2025


Foundation Securities


  • We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and EV’s.
  • Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
  • Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly, smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones robust in the near term.
Pakistan Economy: May-25 CPI likely at 2.7%, base effect wears off - By JS Research

May 27 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May-2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%.
  • Due to the rapid disinflation during the year, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 averages 4.6%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 5.7%.
  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced policy rate to 11% in the last MPC meeting, owing to rapidly declining inflation. A further rate cut of 50-100bps cannot be ruled out in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Morning News: IMF in disagreement over key targets, subsidies - By Vector Research

May 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations.
  • Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran which stood at $3billion would be taken to $10 billion volume in the next few years, as there was immense potential of growth. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday departed to Iran after concluding his two-day official visit to Turkiye.
  • Despite projected remittance inflows of $38 billion in the current fiscal year (FY25), Pakistan’s per expatriate remittance remains significantly lower than that of peer countries. “Although remittances have grown at a compound annual rate of 6.1 per cent from 2013 to 2023, per expatriate remittance remains low in comparison to other countries in the region,” said a report released by the Policy Research and Advisory Council (PRAC) on Monday.
Morning News: Budget features bold measures for ‘strategic direction - By HMFS Research

May 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday pledged that the upcoming federal budget would introduce “bold measures” to steer the national economy in a strategic direction and make available whatever support is required by the armed forces. Further said that every possible support would be provided to the armed forces, stressing that it was a national need in light of recent cross-border aggression, not just a military requirement. He said the government would ensure simplified tax returns and forms for the salaried class. He said that around 70 to 80 percent of salaried people did not hold equity and fixed-income portfolios. “They receive salaries through bank accounts with tax deducted at source. They should not have to fill in 140-150 data points,” he said, adding that the government aimed to reduce that number to just nine — five for wealth tax and four for income tax. He said the process would now be accelerated, with transactions involving Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), three power distribution companies and some financial institutions expected to reach completion by the end of this year.
  • The Finance Ministry said on Monday that the presentation of the Federal Budget 2025-26 has been delayed from June 2 to June 10 due to disagreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over key budgetary figures, including subsidy allocations. “The budget announcement has been delayed by a week because the Finance Ministry’s figures are still under reconciliation. The IMF has placed a cap on subsidies,” he added. He further noted that the IMF has declined to make any changes to the revised budget figures recently presented to the Fund’s team.
  • The government is seriously considering reducing federal excise duty (FED) on beverages (aerated water) in the coming budget (2025-26) to attract foreign investment in this sector. Foreign investors including Turkish investors have promised more foreign direct investment in beverage sector in case of tax relief in the coming budget (2025-26). Leading global players with Turkish and Korean franchise investors have invested over USD 2 billion in Pakistan since 2018. However, no new investments have been made since 2023 due to the current fiscal environment. The industry contributes over Rs 175 billion in taxes annually (FED, GST, income tax, super tax) - one of the highest taxed sectors.
K-Electric (KEL): Transmission and Distribution Tariff Unveiled All three businesses now will get USD tariff - By Topline Research

May 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • In Seven months after securing dollarized tariff for generation business, the K-Electric (KEL) has also secured dollarized tariff for its transmission and distribution business for 7 years, i.e. from FY24 to FY30.
  • Distribution Business awarded USD ROE of 14%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 14% to KEL for distribution business against requested USD IRR of 16.67%. The USD IRR of 14% translates into PKR ROE of 25.6% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 16.67%.
  • Transmission Business awarded USD ROE of 12%: NEPRA has awarded USD IRR of 12% to KEL for transmission business against requested USD IRR of 15%. The USD IRR of 12% translates into PKR ROE of 21.4% for Y1 (i.e. FY24). Which is better than previous tariff PKR return of 15%
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC): Exports outlook gets weaker; Reiterate Sell - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We tweak down our CY25E/CY26E EPS estimates for Pak Aluminium Beverage Cans Ltd (PABC) by 9% and TP by 4%. The revision is mainly led by the expected fall in volumes led by border issues with Afghanistan coupled with the upcoming capacity expansions in Central Asia, which may adversely impact PABC’s export prospects to the region. We reiterate our Underperform rating for the stock with a TP of Rs110.
  • Furthermore, any reduction in regulatory duty in the upcoming budget (from 22%-26% currently to 15% or less) given to the local industry, may create pressure on sales volumes from dumping of cheaper products in the country.
  • We consider resumption of dividend payout and announcement of any Capex or investment plan as key triggers for the stock going forward. To highlight, PABC stands at net cash position of Rs10.7bn (Mar-2025).
D.G Khan Cement (DGKC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 17 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • DGKC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 2,012mn (EPS: PKR 4.59) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 150% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 21,458mn, indicating an increase of 40%QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 21%, representing an increase of 1.74ppt QoQ and 8.56ppt YoY.
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