Morning News: PM heaps praise on WB for cooperation - By AHCML Research
Feb 18 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday lauded a $40 billion investment by World Bank, emphasising that the inflow will usher in a new era of growth and development across various sectors of the country.
- Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal, Monday, underscored the urgency of increasing Pakistan’s exports to $60 billion in the next five years.
- Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Cheema welcomed the delegation of Executive Directors (EDs) and Alternate Executive Directors (AEDs) from the World Bank Group (WBG).
Auto: SUV Sales Rebounded With 84%MoM Growth - By Sherman Research
Jun 13 2025
Sherman Securities
- SUVs posted robust growth in sales with 2,638 units (up 84%MoM). This is the highest monthly sales numbers of the current year– barring one-off sales in January due to year end phenomenon.
- Within SUVs, Tucson sales grew to 569 units compared to only 5 units last month. Havel sales also climbed by 70%MoM.
- Company wise, highest sales was recorded by SAZEW ( Up 67%MoM) on back of elevated Havel sales. In 11MFY25, SAZEW lead the industry with the most sales growth (Up 2.3xYoY)
Pakistan State Oil (PSO): Corporate Brief in Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research
Jun 13 2025
Topline Securities
- Pakistan State Oil (PSO) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance and future outlook of the company.
- As per management, efforts are ongoing to resolve circular debt, though no definitive plan is in place. The target is to recover both principal and Late Payment Surcharge (LPS). As of Mar 2025, PSO’s total receivables stand at Rs732bn, which included Rs325bn in principle from SNGPL alone. Overall LPS amount is over Rs200bn+. Investment plans are in place, pending liquidity, with options still under review.
- Since Feb 2024, there has been no buildup in circular debt from SNGPL side as company has made it clear to Government and PSO that payments should flow on monthly basis. And this understanding is continuing and being implemented in true spirit. In contrast, OGDC and PPL receivables increased from Sui companies in 3QFY25
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research
Jun 13 2025
Insight Securities
- PSO has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing
- Regarding power circular debt resolution, management highlighted that there is no clarity on the amount PSO will receive post this settlement.
- On market share, the company mentioned that it declined due to rising competition and discount offered by competitors. Management expect 3%- 5% growth in retail fuel offtake in FY26.
Pakistan Economy: Policy rate likely to remain ‘unchanged’ - By Taurus Research
Jun 13 2025
Taurus Securities
- State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on Monday June 16, 2025, wherein we expect the MPC to keep the benchmark policy rate ‘unchanged’ at 11%. Our expectations are primarily based on the following factors:
- Geo-political developments: Recent escalation between Iran and Israel, as well as the war between Russia & Ukraine, continues to pose upside risks to commodity prices in particular oil. For context, oil prices are up ~9% following Israel’s attack on Iran. These pressures pose a significant risk to inflation expectations.
- Core inflation remains elevated: Core inflation in Urban and Rural areas was recorded at 7.3% and ~9%, respectively in the latest NCPI reading for the month of May’25. We believe the MPC would like to see a more sustained decrease in the same.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Expected to trade range bound - By JS Research
Jun 13 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 126,718 and slid to close at 124,093, down 260 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,025mn shares compared to 1,041mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at yesterdays’ low of 123,847 where a fall below initiating a corrective trend. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 124,880-125,925 level, followed by 126,718. The MACD is rising, while the RSI has shown weakness, signaling no clear trading view. Investors are advised to view any downside as an opportunity to ’Buy’, keeping stoploss below 123,238 level. The support and resistance are at 123,054 and 125,925, respectively.
Morning News: IMF raises eyebrows over Rs344b grant - By Vector Research
Jun 13 2025
Vector Securities
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over provision of Rs344 billion grants to various sectors without approval from the National Assembly. Sources said the multilateral lender termed the grant for defence, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and other sectors without the nod of parliament a violation of the govt-IMF agreement. The federal government has additionally spent Rs344.66 billion during the current fiscal year in the shape of grants.
- Pakistan slashed spending and pledged to stay the course on fiscal consolidation for the upcoming financial year, reinforcing the government’s commitment to its International Monetary Fund loan programme, reports Bloomberg. The budget plan unveiled Tuesday kept expenses unchanged, while proposing to increase taxes by 18 per cent to Rs2.56 trillion ($9 billion) for the year starting July, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in a parliament speech. That will lead to a primary balance surplus of 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product, said Aurangzeb, higher than the 1.6 per cent agreed with the IMF.
- In a significant win for Pakistan, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank have approved a concessional loan of $700 million for the Reko Diq project, a major mining and resource development initiative. This approval, granted during a board meeting in Washington, is a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan and a major setback for India, which had actively lobbied against the funding.
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey 56% of the participants expecting status quo; we also expect no change - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on May 05, 2025.
- In a Poll conducted by Topline Securities, 56% of the market participant expect a status quo in upcoming monetary policy meeting compared to 31% in last poll. While 44% are expecting a rate cut of at-least 50bps.
- Out of total 44% rate cut participants, 19% are expecting 50bps cut , and 25% are expecting 100bps cut.
Highnoon Laboratories (HINOON): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- Topline Securities organized Corporate Briefing Session of Highnoon Laboratories(HINOON), where management discussed financial performance and future outlook.
- HINOON outperformed the industry, with its revenue growing at a 10-year CAGR of 23%, compared to the pharmaceutical industry’s 10-year CAGR of 15%.
- HINOON’s revenue grew by 25% to Rs24.6bn in 2024, of which 8% was driven by volume growth and 17% by price increases. The management expects the growth momentum to continue in the coming period and to outperform industry growth
Auto: Pakistan Car sales in 11MFY25 up 39% YoY; 2/3 wheelers record ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 14,762 units in May 2025, reflecting a 35% YoY and 39% MoM rise.
- MoM rise was mainly due to lower base as Apr 2025 saw road closure in Sindh (due to strikes over canal issues) which delayed deliveries and thus lower sales.
- YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC discovers oil and gas at Fakir-1 in Bitrism E.L., Sindh - By AKD Research
Jun 12 2025
AKD Securities
- Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has announced an oil and gas discovery at the exploratory well Fakir-1, located in the Bitrism E.L., Khairpur, Sindh. The company (95% working interest), successfully tested the results in the Lower Goru formation with gas flow reaching 6.4mmcfd, alongside crude oil of 55bpd. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR0.36/sh for the company.
- We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on OGDC with a Dec’25 target price of PkR371/sh, alongside a DY of 9% during the same period. Our outlook is strengthened due to the following aspects: i) strong production profile, ii) higher future exploration prospects on back of improving liquidity situation, iii) 8.33% stake in highly prospective Reko Diq Mining Project, iv) offshore working interest in Abu Dhabi Offshore Block-5, along with consortium partners and v) improvement in cash payouts.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 Highlights - By AHCML Research
Jun 10 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- GDP Growth: 2.68% in FY25 (FY24: 2.51%), driven by industrial (4.77%) and services (2.91%) sectors.
- Inflation: Sharply fell to 0.3% in Apr’25 due to monetary tightening, stable food supplies, and lower global commodity prices.
- Fiscal Discipline: Primary surplus of 3.0% of GDP (FY24: 1.5%) and first fiscal surplus in 24 years (Q1 FY25: PKR 1.896 tn).
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research
May 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
- The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
- On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
Economy: IMF Backs Pakistan’s Reforms With USD2.4bn Funding Package - By AHCML Research
May 19 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- The IMF report on Pakistan highlights the country's economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, noting improvements in fiscal discipline, external stability, and structural reforms. However, challenges persist, including subdued growth, elevated core inflation, and risks from external shocks such as recent US tariff hikes. Key achievements include meeting quantitative performance criteria (QPCs), rebuilding foreign reserves, and advancing tax reforms. The report emphasizes the need for sustained policy tightening, fiscal consolidation, and energy sector reforms to ensure long-term stability. Additionally, the proposed Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) aims to address climate vulnerabilities and promote green growth.
- Pakistan's economy has shown signs of stabilization but continues to face significant challenges. After recording GDP growth of 2.5% in FY24, economic activity softened in the first half of FY25, with growth slowing to 1.3% in Q1 and 1.7% in Q2. This deceleration primarily reflects lower yields from major Kharif crops and persistently subdued industrial activity.
- On the inflation front, headline inflation declined sharply to just 0.7% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by tight macroeconomic policies and declining global food and energy prices. However, core inflation remains stubbornly high at around 9%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
Economy: Historically, the Stock Market Recovers After Conflicts End - By AHCML Research
May 9 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- When wars or tensions between India and Pakistan flare up, the stock market, especially Pakistan’s tends to drop sharply due to panic selling and foreign investor withdrawals. However, history shows that once the conflict ends and the risk of full-scale war fades, the market usually bounces back.
- For example, after the 2001-2002 military standoff, PSX had crashed by 25%, but it recovered once troops withdrew. Similarly, in 2019, after the Balakot airstrikes, the market initially fell 5% but stabilized within weeks as tensions eased.
- This pattern suggests that while geopolitical crises cause short-term volatility, markets often regain lost ground once stability returns. The recovery speed depends on the economy’s strength, the ongoing final meeting with IMF for USD1.3bn tranche after matching required condition from IMF we expect the market recover speedily. Longterm damage usually happens only if the conflict leads to sanctions or deep economic crises. In most cases, when the guns fall silent, investors return, and stocks climb back up.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research
Apr 28 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Cherat Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,512 million (EPS: PKR 7.78) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 22% YoY supported by higher retention prices and improved cost efficiencies
- Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 8,155 million, down 6% YoY, mainly due to decline in local and export dispatches.
- Gross margins are estimated at 32%, up 2ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy has contributed to this margin expansion.
D.G Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research
Apr 25 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- D.G Khan Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,762 million (EPS: PKR 4.02) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 49.26% YoY.
- Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 19,147 million, up 34.21% YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
- Gross margins are estimated at 20.10%, down 5.4ppt YoY.
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research
Apr 24 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Indus Motor Company is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 5,662 million (EPS: PKR 72.03) for 3QFY25, reflecting 27% YoY increase.
- Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 61,256 million, reflecting a robust 29% YoY and 41.5% QoQ growth. This performance is primarily driven by a significant increase in volumetric sales, which rose by approximately 40% YoY and 42% QoQ
- Fortuner Sales volume witnessed a substantial rise of 159% YoY and 110% QoQ, highlighting strong consumer demand and improved supply chain efficiency.
Faysal Bank Limited (FABL): 1QCY25 Result Preview - By AHCML Research
Apr 22 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Faysal Bank Limited is expected to report an EPS of Rs. 2.8, accompanied by a Rs. 1.5/share payout as the first interim dividend for CY25. We anticipate a 6% YoY increase in Net Interest Income (NII) for 1QCY25 compared to 1QCY24, driven by a lower cost of deposits amid a declining interest rate environment. However, on a QoQ basis, NII is expected to decline by 4% due to the lower policy rate translating into reduced markup income.
- On the non-funded side, non-interest income is projected to grow by 36% YoY, supported by higher fee-based income and capital gains. Compared to the previous quarter (4QCY24), non-interest income is expected to rise by 6%.
- Conversely, non-interest expenses are expected to surge by 50% YoY, in line with FABL’s branch expansion strategy and investment in digital infrastructure.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research
Apr 21 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- Maple Leaf Cement is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 2,067 million (EPS: PKR 1.97) for 3QFY25, reflecting an impressive 83% YoY increase.
- Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 16,711 million, up 5%YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
- Gross margins are estimated at 34.6%, up 6.6ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy—20 MW solar power projects and 37 MW capacity through the Waste Heat Recovery Power Plant (WHRP)—has contributed to this margin expansion.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Strong Upside Potential – Buy - By AHCML Research
Apr 8 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
- We initiate our coverage of Meezan Bank Ltd. (MEBL) with a Dec’25 Target Price (TP) of PKR 335, signifying a potential capital gain of 30.45%. The bank is also offering a healthy dividend yield of 9.76% (an expected dividend payout of PKR 25/share for CY25). The total return (capital gains + dividend) stands at an attractive 40.21%. MEBL is trading at a CY25 P/E ratio of 5.44x and a PBV of 1.62x.
- Meezan Bank's stellar growth in recent years can be attributed to several factors: 1) Remarkable deposit growth averaging 24% since 2020, driven by rising consumer preferences for Islamic banking; 2) Meezan stands as a major beneficiary of capturing the Islamic banking market share due to its first-mover advantage; 3) The growing consumer interest in Islamic banking and the SBP’s plan to transform Pakistan’s banking system to align with Shariah principles will further propel Meezan’s growth trajectory. Additionally, other highlights include the lowest infection ratio, consumer ease, and improved asset quality with a high coverage ratio.
- MEBL stands as Pakistan’s premier Islamic bank, delivering consistent growth, profitability, and resilience in an evolving financial landscape. Over the past five years, MEBL has demonstrated exceptional performance, with net interest income soaring from PKR 64.8bn in 2020 to PKR 287bn in 2024, driven by robust deposit growth and an expanding asset base. The bank’s efficiency has improved significantly, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 26.78% in 2024, reflecting strong operational discipline. Net profit surged to PKR 102bn, while asset quality remains stable, supported by a prudent risk management framework.