Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 20 2025


Insight Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited has conducted its conference call today to discuss bank’s financial performance and outlook of the bank. Key takeaways of the analyst call are as follows:
  • The bank retained its leadership in managing trade volumes and consumer lending segments.
  • In response to a question about the transition to Islamic banking, management stated that currently, one-third of the bank's operations are already Islamic. Moving forward, the bank remains committed to adhering to SBP’s guidelines for a complete shift toward Islamic banking.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

May 2 2025


Insight Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited has conducted its conference call today to discuss bank’s financial performance and outlook. Key takeaways of the analyst call are as follows:
  • HBL’s current accounts grew by PKR127bn, which is highest Q1 growth in last 5 years.
  • Bank’s advance portfolio recorded a decline of ~20% QoQ, primarily due to high base effect stemming from ADR regulation. All advance portfolio recorded a decline except consumer.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

May 2 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 1QCY25 and future outlook of the bank. The key takeaways of the briefing are listed below:
  • In 1QCY25, wherein the bank posted consolidated profit of PkR16.6bn (EPS: PkR11.3) for the quarter (up by 9.2%YoY/15% on QoQ). Further, the bank also announced interim cash dividend of PkR4.5/share.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) increased by 14% YoY to PKR58.1bn, driven by PKR454bn growth in average balance sheet. Despite ~1,000 bps KIBOR drop, margin impact remained limited due to only 15bps KIBOR compression. Non-Fund Income (NFI) rose 17% YoY to PKR17.6bn, led by cards, banking fees, and treasury gains. Treasury income was supported by capital gains on fixed income portfolio.
Habib Bank (HBL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 2 2025


Topline Securities


  • Habib Bank (HBL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance for 1Q2025 and future outlook.
  • Management expects no change in the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for May 5, 2025. However, considering the macroeconomic outlook, they believe there is room for a further rate cut of 100bps in 2025.
  • Regarding the windfall income tax on its foreign exchange income for the years 2021 and 2022, management highlighted that they have paid the amount in accordance with the High Court’s decision; however, they did not quantify the amount
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 1QCY25 EPS arrives at PKR 11.3; PAT up 11%YoY/ up 14%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 25 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 11.3. 1QCY25 PAT up 11%YoY – in line with expectations. In addition, HBL has also announced an interim DPS of PKR 4.50. Profitability has improved mainly due to uptick in the net-interest margin for the Bank.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 14%YoY/QoQ, wherein the decline in interest income was more than offset by lower interest expenses which can be attributed to lower cost of funds as a result of lower leverage and benefit of the new MDR regime.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 7%YoY. However, declined 40% on a sequential basis primarily due to a 90% decline in other income which included a substantial gain on closure/sale of branches last quarter amounting to PKR 14.3Bn.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 4QCY24 and future outlook of the bank. The key takeaways of the briefing are listed below:
  • In 4QCY24, wherein the bank posted consolidated profit of PkR14.4bn (EPS: PkR9.8) for the quarter (down 3%YoY/flat on QoQ). Further, the bank also announced final cash dividend of PkR4.25/share, taking total CY24 dividend to PkR16.25/sh (vs. PKR9.5sh in CY23).
  • Total deposits grew by 5.5% from Dec’23 to ~PKR 4.4 trn, with domestic deposits rising by PKR180 bn (5%), primarily driven by an increase in current accounts (PKR 176 bn). Average domestic deposits saw a significant YoY increase of PKR 627 Bn, mainly supported by PKR 405 Bn in low cost deposits. International deposits also expanded to $2.2 Bn, reflecting a $192 million increase over Dec’23. Bank expects 17-18% growth in deposits during CY25
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Feb 20 2025


Insight Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited has conducted its conference call today to discuss bank’s financial performance and outlook of the bank. Key takeaways of the analyst call are as follows:
  • The bank retained its leadership in managing trade volumes and consumer lending segments.
  • In response to a question about the transition to Islamic banking, management stated that currently, one-third of the bank's operations are already Islamic. Moving forward, the bank remains committed to adhering to SBP’s guidelines for a complete shift toward Islamic banking.
Habib Bank (HBL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Feb 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • Habib Bank (HBL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance for 2024 and future outlook.
  • HBL's deposits grew by 6% YoY to Rs4.37trn in 2024. Management expects depositsto grow by 17-18% in 2025 due to the low base.
  • HBL's advances grew by 31% to Rs2.435trn, taking the gross ADR to 59% in 2024. For 2025, management expects advances growth to be 12-13%.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocked in at PKR9.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • HBL has announced its 4QCY24 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR14.6bn (EPS: PKR9.8) vs. PAT of PKR15.9bn (EPS: PKR10.1) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and other income.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR60.3bn in 4QCY24, down by 6%/5% YoY/QoQ. The decline is attributable to falling asset yields.
  • Non markup income inched up by 76%/69% YoY/QoQ, driven by fee income and gain on securities. Moreover, the bank recorded other income of ~PKR14.5bn in 4QCY24, attributable to sale of branches.

Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Result Review: HBL 4QCY24 EPS Rs9.1, DPS Rs4.25 - By Sherman Research

Feb 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited (HBL) announced 4QCY24 results today wherein the bank posted an unconsolidated profit-after-tax of Rs13.4bn (EPS Rs9.1) down 5%YoY. The decline in earnings is primarily due to decrease in net interest earned, higher provisioning during the period and higher non-interest expenses.
  • HBL’s interest earned clocked in at Rs176bn, down 7%YoY due to decrease in total earning asset yield, down by 3.6ppt reported at 15% during 4QCY24, indicating the impact of a 1,000bps cut in the policy rate during CY24.
  • Bank’s interest expense reached Rs121bn, down 9%YoY in 4QCY24 owing to decline in policy rate as total cost of funds lowered to 9.44%, down 2.54ppt.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): 4QCY24 EPS clocks-in at PKR 9.8; PAT down 2%YoY/up 2%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Feb 19 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 9.8. 4QCY24 PAT down 2%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 39.9. CY24 PAT PKR 57.8Bn – above expectations. HBL also announced a final DPS of PKR 4.25, taking the full year payout to PKR 16.3/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 6%YoY/5%QoQ on account of lower net interest margin due to reduction in the policy rate by the SBP during the year, resulting in drop asset yields offsetting the decrease in the cost of funds.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 86%YoY/69%QoQ. Wherein, other income was up substantially on a sequential basis on the back of gain on closure/sale of branches amounting to PKR 14.3Bn. Fee income was up 4%QoQ. Capital gains down 27%QoQ.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
MARI Petroleum Company (MARI): Corporate Briefing Session - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • MARI Petroleum Company (MARI PA) has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing.
  • During 9MFY25, MARI has posted net sales and PAT of PKR132.3bn and PKR46.3bn (EPS: PKR38.6), down by 7% and 10% YoY, respectively. The decrease in earnings is mainly attributable to lower production due to forced curtailment.
  • Company’s production clocked in at 29.32MMBOE in 9MFY25, down by 2% YoY.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Energy chain Fixed charges hiked by 50% - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent announcement, OGRA announced 50% hike in fixed charges for both protected and non-protected domestic consumers. Households consuming up to 1.5hm/month will now pay PKR1,500 up from PKR1,000, while higher consumption slabs will face fixed charges of PKR3,000 up from PKR2,000. Protected consumers will also see a rise in fixed charges, from PKR400 to PKR600 per month. Meanwhile, gas tariffs for the power sector have increased from PKR1,050/mmbtu to PKR1,225/mmbtu, and for general industry (process), rates have gone up ~7% to PKR2,300/mmbtu.
  • The energy sector has been on a cash flow recovery path over the past years, supported by policy reforms aimed at improving financial sustainability. A key driver has been the rationalization of tariffs, further aided by fixed monthly charges for residential consumers, which has helped Sui companies to reduce revenue shortfalls. Additionally, the inclusion of RLNG diversion costs in tariff structures has further eased cash flow constraints across the value chain. These reforms have translated into a sharp recovery in receivables for upstream players, with PPL and OGDC recording improved recovery rates of 88% and 90% in 9MFY25, up from 53% and 49% in the same period last year. However, this trend reversed slightly in the latest quarter, likely due to forced curtailments triggered by higher LNG imports. We believe the hike in fixed charges would negate the impact of higher LNG imports.
Economy: Jun’25 CPI likely to clock in at 3.2% - By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~3.2% for Jun’25, compared to ~12.6% in SPLY and ~3.5% in preceding month. This will take FY25 average inflation to ~4.6% compared to 23.9% in FY24. On MoM basis, inflation is likely to inch up by ~0.2% MoM, mainly driven by ~0.4% housing index due to higher monthly FCA. On the flip side, food basket is expected to depict a decline of ~0.5% MoM, amid decline in prices of chicken price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomatoes (59.3↑%), Potatoes (26.4↑%), Eggs (7.4%↑), Fresh fruits (5.7%↑) & Onions (5.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Chicken (32.5%↓), Fresh vegetables (12.2%↓), LPG (6.6%↓), Vegetable ghee (0.4%↓) & Cooking oil (0.4%↓).
  • The FY26 budget continues the fiscal consolidation path pursued over the past couple of years, under the guidance of the IMF. The budget is broadly noninflationary, with minimal changes to the taxation structure and no significant new taxes, except for some adjustments in petroleum related levies. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to remain within the SBP’s target range of 5%–7%. Based on our estimates, average inflation for FY26 is projected at around 5.4%, assuming no major shocks to the domestic supply chain or global commodity prices. However, the recently announced increase in fixed charges for domestic gas consumers is expected to be inflationary. With gas holding a weight of ~1.1% in the urban CPI basket, we estimate this hike will lead to a ~23% MoM increase in the gas index, translating into a ~0.85bps uptick in headline inflation. On interest rate front, we expect the SBP to maintain status quo, as the full transmission of 11ppts reduction in policy rate has yet to be reflected in real economy.
Fertilizer: Phosphatic fertilizer prices takes off -- By Insight Research

Jun 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • The global price of di -ammonium phosphate (DAP), the second most consumed fertilizer after urea, has increased by over 18 % since the beginning of 2025 , reaching US $720/ton . This rise is driven by several factors, including supply -side challenges due to China's export restrictions , higher energy costs, geopolitical tensions and strong demand particularly due to seasonal agricultural activity . The price spike was further accelerated by geopolitical event post Israeli attack on Iran's gas infrastructure, which also disrupted fertilizer markets .
  • Despite the sharp increase in DAP prices, the cost of key raw materials like phosphoric acid and phosphate rock has remained relatively stable . With gas prices fixed for local manufacturers, this expansion in margins significantly benefits DAP & NP producers, helping them to neutralize some of the impact of lower urea volumes caused by unfavorable agronomic conditions . Historically, we have seen that NP prices have a strong correlation with DAP . Given that, companies engaged in DAP & NP production are more favorably positioned in the current environment . We highlight FFC and FATIMA are well positioned to play this pricing trend.
  • The DAP market has experienced a significant price rally in recent months, with prices surging by ~18 % since the beginning of the year, reaching US $720/ton in Jun’25 . This increase has been driven by a combination of factors, including supply shortages, geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and stronger demand from regional markets .
Pakistan Textile: After the hit, a hint of relief - By Insight Research

Jun 25 2025


Insight Securities


  • Despite facing challenging times, Pakistan’s textile sector remained resilient with value added sector depicting healthy volumetric growth and overall sector contributing ~56% to total exports in 11MFY25. However, listed players has underperformed the index as operating environment was not very conducive for the sector, mainly due to elevated energy costs, shift to the normal tax regime and policy lapses for local industries. Additionally, subdued demand from the European market kept prices under pressure and local cotton production has fallen significantly by ~34% compared to SPLY, forcing the industry to rely more on imported cotton, which ultimately hurt the spinning sector.
  • Despite ongoing challenges, we believe most textile stocks are trading at a discount and offers attractive valuations compared to historical multiples. Recent developments such as sharp interest rate cuts, reduction in electricity tariffs coupled with the potential shift in global trade amid US tariffs, may induce a gradual recovery for textile sector. Within our coverage, ILP and NML remain our top picks.
  • Pakistan, which directs ~17%–18% of its total exports and ~25% of its textile exports to the U.S. market, remains relatively well-positioned compared to regional peers under the current U.S. tariff structure. For reference, Pakistan’s tariff rate stands at (29%), while competing countries face higher effective tariffs rates, including China (145%), Bangladesh (37%), Vietnam (46%), and Sri Lanka (44%).
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept policy rate unchanged at 11%, inline with market expectations. The committee noted that inflation recorded an uptick to clock in at ~3.5% in May’25, as expected and is likely to inch up in coming months and stabilize in target range during FY26. The impact of policy rate cut is kicking in as reflected in improved economic activity. The committee highlighted that trade deficit and shortfalls in planned inflows posses risk to external account. The MPC further elaborated that some of the actions announced in budget might have negative impact on trade balance.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes provisional GDP growth of 2.7% for FY25 and ambitious growth target of 4.2% for FY26, successful disbursement of US$1bn from IMF after completion of first review of EFF program, revised estimate of primary deficit at 2.2% of GDP and some decline in agriculture output compared to initial estimates.
  • Overall, MPC believes the current real policy rate is sufficiently positive to keep inflation within the target range of 5%–7%. However, timely receipt of planned inflows, achieving targeted fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms are crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Moreover, fluid geopolitical situation and its impact on oil prices will remain a key variable for Pakistan.
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 13 2025


Insight Securities


  • PSO has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing
  • Regarding power circular debt resolution, management highlighted that there is no clarity on the amount PSO will receive post this settlement.
  • On market share, the company mentioned that it declined due to rising competition and discount offered by competitors. Management expect 3%- 5% growth in retail fuel offtake in FY26.

Pakistan Economy: OPEC’s aggressive output hike puts Pakistan in a sweet spot - By Insight Research

May 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • OPEC+ is expected to announce another output hike of 411 k bbl/day starting July, according to multiple news reports . During the group’s upcoming meeting on June 1st, members are likely to approve a production increase that is three times larger than the previously planned hike of 137 k bbl/day . If materialized, this move could add pressure to already struggling international crude oil prices, which have been weighed down by a weak global economic outlook.
  • Sources close to the group indicate that larger -than -expected output hike may be part of a broader strategy to bring as much as 2 . 2mn bbl/day back into the market by Nov’25 . The decision is widely seen as an effort, particularly by Saudi Arabia to regain lost market share and push high cost producers out of the market . Notably, Saudi Arabia’s market share has been on a declining trend since 2022 , following OPEC+ production cuts that reduced the cartel’s overall share in global oil supply . KSA’s market share declined even faster than the group’s average . The current strategy also appears to target non -compliant OPEC+ members, with Saudi Arabia leveraging its cost advantage to reclaim share from both shale producers and cartel members who are not adhering to quotas . Additionally, experts suggest a geopolitical angle to the move, particularly in the context of U . S . -Saudi relations . The Trump administration is reportedly keen on lower oil prices to curb inflation and restore market confidence especially due to tariff-induced uncertainty . On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking deeper defense cooperation and has recently announced plans to invest US $600bn in US .
  • We believe that Saudi Arabia aims to capture market share from high -cost producers while maintaining some degree of control on prices through monthly OPEC+ meetings, as highlighted in group’s recent press releases . A sharp price decline would not be in KSA’s interest, especially considering its ambitious development plan .
Oil Marketing Companies: OGRA approves ERR for sui companies - By Insight Research

May 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, OGRA has decided a 6.6% increase in gas prices for SNGPL, while reducing SSGCL prices by 5.9%, effective from July’25. OGRA has submitted its decision to the federal government for the issuance of a formal notification outlining category wise consumer gas prices. As per legal requirements, the federal government is expected to finalize the category-wise pricing within 40 days. We believe that the impact of consumers will be marginal due to minimal hike in overall prices. However, RLNG diversion volume remains a key component to look for.
  • OGRA approves meager increase for SNGPL; price set at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU The OGRA has issued its decision on SNGPL petition, where OGRA approved a tariff increase of PKR116.9/MMBTU, setting the prescribed price at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU, which represents a 6.6% increase from the current rate against SNGPL's request for an increase of PKR707/MMBTU. This revised revenue requirement stems from a PKR62.2bn downward adjustment in operating expenses, wherein major deviations stems from adjustment in cost of gas and the disallowance of PKR95.9bn on account of late payment surcharge. Notably, OGRA based its calculations on different oil price and exchange rate assumptions of PKR75.3/bbl for crude and PKR280/US$. SNGPL, in contrast, assumed PKR77/bbl, and PKR287.5/US$, respectively. Furthermore, OGRA revised the RLNG volume downwards to 75,556 MMCF, compared to SNGPL's projected 88,185 MMCF. This adjustment is due to confirmation from PLL that arrangements have been made with ENI to divert cargoes outside Pakistan from Jul’25 to Dec’25. Additionally, while SNGPL had requested PKR317.7/MMBTU for RLNG cost of services for the year, OGRA approved PKR210/MMBTU. This adjustment assumes a reduced RLNG input volume of 325,677 MMBTU, against SNGPL's projected 343,960 MMBTU, amid aforementioned diversion.
  • OGRA has finalized its decision on SSGCL’s petition for FY2025–26, against SSGCL's proposed hike of PKR2,399/MMBTU to bridge a revenue shortfall of PKR888.6bn (including PKR498.7bn from prior years), OGRA has instead recommended a reduction of PKR103.95/MMBTU. This brings the prescribed price down to PKR1,658.56/MMBTU, a 5.9% decrease. OGRA has revised SSGCL’s net revenue requirement down to PKR319.9bn with only PKR34.2bn allowed as prior year adjustment. Major downward revisions include PKR62.2bn in operating expenses. OGRA’s estimates factor in PKR75/bbl for oil and PKR280/US$, contrasting with SSGCL’s assumptions of PKR72.5/bbl and PKR292.
Economy: Ceasefire Ignites Investor Confidence in PSX - By Insight Research

May 12 2025


Insight Securities


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a market-wide trading halt today as the KSE-100 Index skyrocketed by 9,475 points (+8.84%) to close at 116,650.12, triggering the index-based halt mechanism on the upside. The rally was driven by a powerful combination of regional peace prospects, fresh IMF disbursements, and improving global trade sentiment following the resolution of the U.S.-China tariff standoff.
  • The Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both nations met today at 12:00 PM to formalize and reinforce the recently agreed ceasefire.
  • The diplomatic engagement is being seen as a major de-escalation step, improving regional security outlook and investor sentiment.
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