Pakistan Power: HUBC & NPL — 2QFY25E Result Previews - By AKD Research
Feb 25 2025
AKD Securities
- HUBC – 2QFY25E earnings to clock in at PkR9.0/sh: We expect Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) to post NPAT of PkR11.8bn (EPS: 9.07/sh) for 2QFY25, down 23%YoY/39%QoQ. The decline is primarily attributed to the termination of PPA for the base plant, effective October 1, 2024, leading to a lower topline of PkR17.2bn (down 43%YoY/46%QoQ). Notably, power offtakes from the company’s RFO and imported coal-based generators remain subdued during the quarter, while indigenous coal IPPs remained active throughout, benefiting from a higher ranking in NTDC’s merit order. On the non-operating front, share of profit from associates is expected to clock in at PkR10.7bn for the period (up 1%YoY). We do not anticipate the company to announce a cash dividend during the period (vs. PkR4.0/sh in SPLY), however, any payout would be a positive development. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on HUBC with a Dec’25 TP of PkR151/sh, alongside a DY of 4% during the same period.
- NPL expected to announce PkR2.0/sh payout in 2QFY25E: We anticipate Nishat Power Limited (NPL) to report NPAT of PkR982mn (EPS: PkR2.77) for 2QFY25E, up 14%YoY. The increase in earnings is due to higher finance income, supported by elevated cash and short-term investment balances of PkR11bn during the quarter (up 31%YoY). Additionally, the receipt of any outstanding dues from CPPA-G is expected to further strengthen the liquid position, partially offsetting the impact of declining fixed-income yields during the period. Regarding operations, plant utilization remained near 0% during the quarter (vs. 6%/7% in SPLY/1QFY25), primarily due to lower generation from RFO-based sources amid subdued power demand during the winter season. Alongside the results, we expect NPL to announce a half-year cash dividend of PkR2.0/sh, taking cumulative payout to PkR4.0 during the first half (vs. PkR2.50/sh in 1HFY24). Overall, we reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on NPL with a Dec’25 TP of PkR46/sh, alongside a DY of 20% during the same period.