Pakistan Economy: Feb-25 CPI to likely record a 9+ year low at 2.3% - By JS Researrch
Feb 27 2025
JS Global Capital
- Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to continue with the disinflation trend, with Feb-2025 CPI likely to fall to 2.29% (lowest since Nov-2015 owing to a high base affect). This would take 8MFY25 average inflation to 6.1%, down from 8MFY24 average of 28.0%.
- Given rapid disinflation, our base case CPI estimate for FY25 averages at 5.7%. In our view, an uptick in food inflation would be seen during Ramzan next month. The rolling 12M fwd CPI estimate clocks in around 6.7%.
- Our last month’s market survey had shown expectations for the easing cycle to continue beyond Jan-2025. Based on the lower-than-expected inflation readings thus far, we may see a 100bp cut in interest rates going forward