Economy: Successful IMF Review to clear the path for KSE-100 - By AKD Research
Mar 3 2025
AKD Securities
- The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. actions.
- We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn EFF amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE-100 positive.
- IMF green light to provide impetus: The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut in Jan’25 MPC and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. aid freeze and tariffs. We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE100 positive. Moreover, significant reduction in inflation and controlled external account position amid subdued economic activity has strengthened case for further monetary easing. With real positive interest rates at 7.5% based on our 12-month forward projections, we anticipate the SBP will cut interest rates by another 250 bps in CY25.