Fertilizers: Weak farm economics continue to dent sales in Feb-2025 - By JS Research

Mar 6 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fertilizer sales during Feb-2025 are likely to remain adversely impacted, with industry-wide Urea and DAP off-take expected to reach 341k tons (-37% YoY) and 41k tons (-64% YoY), respectively. The decline is driven by continued disruptions in water supply, weaker farm economics due to lower crop prices, and seasonality impacts.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to record Urea sales of 155k tons in Feb-2025, down 25% YoY. Similarly, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to report subdued Urea sales of around 87k tons, marking a 54% YoY decline. In contrast, Fatima Fertilizer (FATIMA) may witness a 15% YoY increase in Urea off-take, arriving at 69k tons.
  • Cumulatively, Urea off-take declined by 32% YoY during 2MCY25. In terms of market share, FFC is expected to improve its position at 44%, up 3ppts YoY. Meanwhile, EFERT is likely to see a 10ppts YoY decline in market share to 25%, whereas FATIMA’s Urea market share is expected to rise to 22%, compared to 14% in the same period last year.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 11 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Persists as PSX Hits Historic Peak - By HMFS Research

Jul 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-setting momentum, with the KSE-100 Index hitting a new all-time high of 134,932 level, ultimately closed at 134,300 level posting a robust gain of 517 points during the session. The rally reflects sustained investor confidence, underpinned by a sharp improvement in macro fundamentals. Key catalysts included a marked improvement in Pakistan’s external position—with FX reserves surpassing USD 20bn for the first time in three years—and record-high PSDP utilization of PKR 1.046tn in FY25, representing 96% of the total allocation. This reflects strong fiscal execution and a clear commitment to growth-driven policy support. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of improved corporate earnings and a stable monetary outlook. Market activity remained strong, with 290mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 764mn shares traded across the broader market. Top volume leaders included BOP (94mn), ASL (25mn), and KOSM (24mn). While short-term consolidation may follow the recent sharp gains, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by macroeconomic stability and earnings visibility. Investors are advised to maintain a selective, fundamentals-driven approach, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and policy tailwinds.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 2QCY25 EPS clocks-in at Rs 11.3, DPS Rs8.0 - By Foundation Research

Jul 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • United Bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY25 results today reporting earnings of PKR 28.2Bn (EPS: PKR 11.3), ↑103/↓21% YoY/QoQ respectively. This pulls 1HCY25 earnings to PKR 25.5/sh, up 117% YoY. The bank also announced an interim dividend of PKR 8.0/sh (1HCY25 pay-out: PKR 13.5/sh). The result is higher than our expectations because of greater than estimated NII however, high effective tax rate of 61.6% in 2Q dragged earnings.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank underwent a significant jump of 237% YoY to PKR 91.2Bn in 2Q with NIMs accretion supporting top-line growth. Note that NIMs declined to only 2.5% in the SPLY. The surge came from 1) robust investments book delivering strong fixed income returns, 2) sharp decline in deposit costs and 3) lagged impact of asset re-pricing. On a QoQ basis, NII increased by 8%.
  • Non-funded income arrived at PKR 15.2Bn in 2Q, ↓17% YoY mainly on account of streamlined capital gains. The decline was recorded despite a prolific 68% YoY jump in fee income. Forex income recorded an increase of 7% YoY over the same period. Over the past year, the bank has recorded handsome gains in commission on trade, commission on guarantees and card related fees which we believe continue to propel fee income accretion. On a sequential basis, NFI recorded a paltry decline of 3%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the Day July 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index declined by 0.6% at day-end, closing at 132,577, as investor sentiments remained neutral, and renewed concerns over Pakistan’s tax compliance highlighted by the ADB. Pressure was further amplified by rupee volatility and weakness across global equities. Near-term market direction remains cautious, with macroeconomic headwinds and policy ambiguity weighing on outlook. However, clarity on fiscal reforms and global stabilization could offer a potential recovery path for the PSX in the medium term.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 26, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 123,417 early in the session. However, broad-based profit-taking set in after two strong bullish days, which dragged the index into the red. Notably, the KSE-100 Index closed down by 715 points at 122,046. Total traded volume stood at 758mn shares, with top activity in PIBTL, WTL, PASL, SSGC and KEL. The recent rally was driven by strong buying in cement, banking, and fertilizer sectors. Near-term outlook remains positive, and dips may offer attractive entry opportunities.
Pakistan Power: Generation posts modest growth in May-2025 - By JS Research

Jun 25 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per latest data released by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Power generation during May-2025 clocked in at 12,755GWh, with a modest growth of 1% YoY. Cumulatively, power generation during 11MFY25 remained relatively flat with a marginal dip of 0.3% YoY, clocking-in at ~113,416GWh.
  • On a QoQ basis, generation increased by 21%, mainly due to higher summer demand, a reduction in tariffs, and increased industrial consumption from a shift to grid electricity. Among the energy mix, hydel energy remained dominant, accounting for 38% during May compared to a contribution of 22% during the last month.
  •  Average cost of generation for May-2025 stood at Rs7.5/kWh, significantly down by 18%YoY. Likewise, on a sequential basis, average cost dipped 16%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 23, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX suffers heavy losses amid sharp sell-off, opening with a steep 2,000- point gap down amid panic selling. The index failed to recover throughout the session, touching a low of 115,887, eventually closed with a massive loss of 3,856 points, ending the day at 116,167. Total traded volume stood at 595mn shares, with top activity in WTL, SSGC, PASL, KEL and KOSM. The sharp decline reflects heightened fear driven by uncertainty and external pressures. We advise investors to remain cautious, focusing on risk management and selective accumulation.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 16, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 122,903, but failed to sustain momentum. It eventually closed at 122,225, as profit-taking emerged later in the session. On the economic front, the State Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%, aligning with expectations. Trading activity was dominated by small-cap stocks, reflecting short-term speculative interest. Market volume stood at 1,224mn shares, with top activity in WTL, PASL, FCSC, KOSM and MDTL. We advise investors to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive exposure for now. Risk management remains key amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro developments.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 2, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 2 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX opened on a positive note and rallied to an intraday high of 120,591 points. Selling pressure dragged the index down to close at 118,878 (down 813 points). On the economic front, CPI data was recorded at 3.5% YoY, providing further cues to market participants. Market volume stood at 498mn shares, with notable activity in DCL, ICIBL, KEL, WTL and FFL. Looking ahead, we expect market pressure to persist in the near term; however, this may present a buying opportunity in select sectors. Investors are advised to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks in the cement, automobile, and fertilizer sectors on dips.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Auto: Auto volumes poised for modest uptick in Apr-2025 - By JS Research

May 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Apr-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd, representing 84% of the four-wheeler market, to post a 4% YoY volumetric growth, reaching 9,466 units.
  • The modest growth is likely to be driven by notable improvement in volumes of HCAR and INDU, with a significant growth of 70% YoY and 58% YoY, respectively. On the contrary, we expect Pak Suzuki (market leader) to report a negative growth of 25% YoY. Cumulatively, we expect our sample to post a decent growth of 37% YoY during 10MFY25.
  • Auto-financing continues to rise amid ongoing monetary easing, up 7.5% YoY during Mar-2025. We believe the prospects remain positive with momentum likely to continue in upcoming months
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 21, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls dominated the trading floor today as investors capitalized on attractive valuations, with the benchmark index closing up by 1,068 points (+0.9%) at 118,383 points. Majority of buying was seen in banking stocks where MEBL, MCB, and UBL alone contributed 648 points to the index gains. Looking forward we expect some corporate results based rally in the market while budget related updates and upcoming monetary policy would also drive market sentiments. Therefore, investors are advised to adopt a ‘Buy on dips’ stance with focus on Oil & Gas, Automobile, and Cement sectors.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.