Pakistan Economy: Another 100bps cut expected - By Foundation Research
Mar 7 2025
Foundation Securities
- The Central Bank has been in hot pursuit of the nose-diving inflation over the last nine months trying to catch up with the curve and narrow the real interest rate gap which is still 10/5/3% on current, 1-yr forward and core measures, respectively. Moreover, inflation has averaged 5.9% in 8MFY25 and avg. inflation during FY25 is expected to clock-in at only 5.4% which is near the lower end of the 5-7% inflation target range of the SBP.
- Viewed together with being in an IMF program, a surplus in the external account during 7MFY25, stable exchange rate and subdued growth outlook, we believe the Central Bank is poised to deliver another cut of 100bps in the policy rate taking it to 11.0% at the Monetary Policy meeting scheduled on 10th Mar’25. At this level, the monetary policy stance would still be significantly tight and data dependent (as required by IMF).