Morning News: IMF agreesto cut FBR tax collection target by Rs620bn - By Vector Research

Mar 14 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and the IMF have agreed to revise downward the macroeconomic and fiscal framework for the current fiscal year, under which the FBR’s annual tax collection target was slashed down from Rs12.97 trillion to Rs12.35 trillion. Without changing the envisaged tax-to-GDP ratio target of 10.6 per cent, the FBR’s annual tax collection target was revised downward to the tune of Rs0.62 trillion, or Rs620 billion.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has collected Rs7,346 billion during the first eight months (July-February) 2024-25 against the target of Rs7,947 billion, reflecting a massive shortfall of Rs601 billion. The FBR data revealed that the FBR has provisionally collected Rs850 billion during February 2025 against the target of Rs983 billion, reflecting a shortfall of Rs133 billion.
  • Foreign office on Thursday addressed recent media reports suggesting a possible entry ban on Pakistani nationals by the United States, clarifying that no official indication of such a move has been received.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week at the PSX, as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Budget. The benchmark KSE-100 index fluctuated between an intraday high of 119,542 points (+389) and a low of 118,665 points (−487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102. Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions.
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): CY24 & 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PABC is the leading manufacturer of beverage cans in Pakistan. The Company is also Pakistan’s first and only manufacturer and exporter of aluminium cans.
  • During CY24, sales revenue increased 17%YoY clocking in at PKR 23Bn. The contribution of the exports to total revenue was around 63% during the year. Export sales increased 53%YoY to PKR 14.4Bn. Gross margin recorded a marginal decrease. Net profit for the year was recorded at PKR 6Bn compared to PKR 5Bn during the SPLY. The net profit margin recorded a marginal increase. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 16.9/sh from PKR 13.9/sh during the SPLY.
  • The Company reported a production of 936Mn cans in CY24, at a capacity utilization of 89%. The production capacity is 1.2Bn cans p.a.
Lalpir Power Limited (LPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • LPL’s Power Purchase Agreement, originally due to expire in Nov’28, was terminated effective Oct 1, 2024, under a Negotiated Settlement Agreement. Receivables up to Sep 30, 2024—including CPP, EPP, and PTI—were cleared by Dec 31, 2024. Delayed payment interest was waived, resulting in significant reversals in the financials. The Company retains ownership of its 350MW oil-fired complex, and no further compensation was provided by the Government. CPPA-G will reimburse the Company for any adverse tax rulings if applicable.
  • Revenue declined 27%YoY to PKR 14.2Bn (CY23: PKR 19.5Bn), reflecting reduced dispatches ahead of PPA expiry. Gross profit fell to PKR 3.55Bn (CY23: PKR 5.6Bn), while PAT sharply dropped to PKR 465Mn from PKR 4.9Bn. This steep decline was primarily driven by non-recurring reversals—including furnace oil inventory written down to net realizable value due to low selling prices and the reversal of interest income due to waived charges under the settlement. EPS declined significantly to PKR 1.22 (CY23: PKR 12.1).
  • LPL reported surplus funds of PKR 9.8Bn as of Dec 31, 2024, ensuring liquidity strength post-PPA. However, Management clarified that it does not plan to distribute excess reserves via dividends in the near term. Instead, the focus is on pursuing high-potential ventures that can deliver superior long-term shareholder value.
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: IMF yet to decide on budget relief request - By Vector Research

May 22 2025


Vector Securities


  • Seeking effective and practical steps for the realisation of agriculture income tax and improvements in retail sector taxation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yet to take a position on Pakistan’s request for relief measures in the upcoming budget, due on June 2.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb said that Pakistan’s exports to United States of America (USA) is $4.4 billion as compared to imports of US$1.9 billion with the trade surplus of $2.5 billion during current Financial Year 2024-25 (up to March).
  • Pakistan’s total investment plunged into the lowest range despite a slight improvement in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25, mainly due to the assumption of reliance on increased public investments. Private sector investment stagnated, standing at 9.1 percent in the current fiscal year compared to 9 percent in the last financial year.
Morning News: Q3FY25; Economy posts 2.4pc growth - By Vector Research

May 21 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s economy recorded a 2.4 percent growth in the third quarter (January– March) of fiscal year 2024–25, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday. Despite a 1.14 percent contraction in the industrial sector during the third quarter (January–March) of fiscal year 2024–25, Pakistan’s economy achieved a 2.4 per cent GDP growth, according to the PBS following the 113th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting.
  • The World Bank (WB) has deferred the approval of additional International Development Association (IDA) credit in the equivalent amount of $70 million to Pakistan Raises Revenue (PRR) project, which was aimed at providing additional investment financing to the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), in support of its new Transformation Plan, official sources revealed.
  • The Petroleum Division (PD) has sent a summary to the Cabinet Committee for Disposal of Legislative Cases (CCLC), seeking carbon levy of Rs2.50 per litre on petrol, diesel and furnace oil by June end for budgetary year FY26. The carbon levy will be hiked to Rs5 per litre on POL products in FY27.
Morning News: Pakistan, IMF open talks on budget finalization - By Vector Research

May 20 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) opened high-level policy talks in Islamabad on Monday to discuss the upcoming federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26, officials said. The current round of discussions, which will continue till May 23. The Islamabad talks focus on revenue targets, expenditure controls, and budgetary projections as Pakistan grapples with mounting fiscal and external financing pressures. An agreement between the IMF staff mission and the authorities on next year’s budgetary measures and macroeconomic framework would lead to the announcement of the federal budget on June 2.
  • The International Monetary Fund has tightened the loan conditions for Pakistan for future funding, and warned of risks to the South Asian nation’s economy from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and escalating tensions with India, reports Bloomberg.
  • Pakistan is seeking loans totalling up to $350 million from commercial banks in the United Arab Emirates to meet its external financing needs. According to informed banking sources, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has been in discussions with these banks to revive their loan portfolio with Pakistan, and the finalisation of the loan is expected to occur very soon.
Morning News: Pakistan receives second IMF tranche of $1.02b: SBP - By Vector Research

May 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan has received a second tranche of $1.023 billion, equivalent to 760 million in Special Drawing Rights (SDR), from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced on Wednesday. According to the central bank, the inflow will be reflected in the country’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ending May 16. With the latest transfer, total disbursements under the programme now stand at approximately $2.1 billion (SDR 1.52 billion).
  • As virtual technical-level discussions on the upcoming federal budget begin, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Pakistan’s total revenue to grow to nearly Rs20 trillion in the next fiscal year, up from the current estimate of less than Rs17.8tr, with an emphasis on tight expenditure controls to ensure sustainable debt servicing.
  • Barron’s, an American weekly magazine and newspaper published by Dow Jones & Company, has lauded Pakistan’s recent economic turnaround, terming it a “macroeconomic miracle of sorts”—while also underscoring the fragility and deep structural risks the country still faces.
Morning News: Pakistan meets key IMF conditions - By Vector Research

May 8 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund's $7 billion bailout package largely remained on track during the first nine months of this fiscal year, as the federal and provincial governments met three out of five major fiscal conditions, with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) remaining the only weak link. The FBR missed its two key conditions of collecting Rs9.17 trillion total revenues and Rs36.7 billion from retailers under the Tajir Dost scheme during July-March period of this fiscal year, showed the fiscal operations summary released by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday.
  • The government has launched the first Green Sukuk aiming at to attract a broader investor base, deepen financial markets, and accelerate the country’s transition to a green and resilient economy. The inaugural issuance, ranging between Rs20 billion and Rs30 billion, will be conducted through an auction process, with the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) playing a central role in listing and promoting this innovative instrument to investors.
  • Pakistan’s international bonds slipped around 1 cent after India attacked Pakistan and Azad Kashmir on Wednesday in response to tourist killings in April, sparking the worst fighting in more than two decades between the nuclear-armed enemies.The 2036 bond slipped 0.9 cents to be bid at 72.477 cents, Tradeweb data showed.
Morning News: Rate cut; KIBOR drops across all tenors - By Vector Research

May 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Karachi Interbank Offered Rate (KIBOR) declined across all tenors on Tuesday, following a cut in the key policy rate by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
  • Standard & Poor’s Global Market Intelligence on Tuesday forecast further rate cuts by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) during the current fiscal year following a 100bps reduction to 11pc by the Monetary Policy Committee on Monday. In a brief analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence said the SBP delivered a larger-than-expected rate cut to 11pc as headline inflation bottomed out.
  • The total number of Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) has crossed 0.8 million with the addition of 8092 new accounts in March 2025 while the volume of funds received in RDA so far surpassed the $ 10 billion mark.
Morning News: Policy rate slashed to 11% - By Vector Research

May 6 2025


Vector Securities


  • Beating the market expectations of a 50 basis points (bps) cut, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has slashed the policy rate by 100 bps to 11%, effective May 6, 2025, reflecting easing inflationary pressures. However, the central bank has highlighted that the broader economic landscape remains fraught with challenges, including sluggish GDP growth, weak large-scale manufacturing, persistent fiscal slippages, and external sector vulnerabilities. 
  • Sustained escalation in tensions with India would likely weigh on Pakistan’s growth and hamper the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation, setting back Pakistan’s progress in achieving macroeconomic stability, said Moody’s Investors Services (Moody’s). The rating agency also stated that higher defence spending would potentially weigh on India’s fiscal strength and slow its fiscal consolidation.
  • Efforts are under way to jack up real GDP growth to around 3 percent for the current fiscal year amid low investment and savings rates. Top official sources confirmed to The News that it is yet to be ascertained from where this level of growth will be achieved at a time of contraction in the Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) and dismal performance in the major crops of the agriculture sector. Second quarter growth was jacked up by tinkering with livestock growth, which is the highest in the history of the country.
Morning News: IMF to proceed with Pakistan review despite India’s objections - By Vector Research

May 5 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed that its Executive Board meeting related to Pakistan bailout programme will proceed as planned on May 9, 2025. “As has been announced, the Executive Board meeting for the first EFF [Extended Fund Facility] review and RSF [Resilience and Sustainable Facility] request is scheduled for May 9. The Board meeting is going to take place as planned so there is no change,” said Mahir Binici, the IMF’s Resident Representative for Pakistan, in a statement.
  • Standard Chartered Pakistan has maintained a 3.0 per cent economic growth forecast for the country for FY25, citing IMF loans and strong worker remittances as key factors supporting the country’s improving macroeconomic outlook. “We expect economic growth to pick up in the last two quarters of the current fiscal year (ending in June), driven by the combined effect of 1,000bps of monetary easing over the past months and rapidly declining inflation,” Farooq Pasha, country economist at Standard Chartered Pakistan, said at an event in Islamabad.
  • The Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings recommended Pakistan to stay the course, deepen the reform momentum, and focus on embedding permanence in macroeconomic stability, with international partners, while expressing readiness to support the country in achieving these objectives.
Morning News: Higher export reliance on US market: IMF cautions Pakistan over US tariff adjustments - By Vector Research

May 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that recent changes in US import tariff adjustments could disproportionately affect Jordan and Pakistan, given their significant shares of exports to the US market. In its Regional Economic Outlook, the IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth projection downward to 2.6 percent for the current fiscal year, from an earlier estimate of 3.2 percent. For the next fiscal year, GDP growth is projected at 3.6 percent.
  • Growth for Pakistan is expected to remain broadly unchanged in fiscal year 2025, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point downward revision from October because of weaker activity during the first half of fiscal year 2025 and heightened trade uncertainty more than offsetting the positive impact of recent and further expected monetary easing over the second half of this year, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Pakistan’s international bonds dropped more than 1 cent on Wednesday after Lahore said it has “credible intelligence” that India intends to launch military action soon as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbours. The 2036 bond suffered the biggest decline, falling 1.3 cents to be bid at 71.85 cents in the dollar, Tradeweb data showed, though bid-ask spreads of around 1 cent pointed to limited liquidity.