Engro Holdings (ENGROH): Earnings and Dividend Revised Down; Buy Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Mar 18 2025


Topline Securities


  • We revise down our earnings estimate for Engro Holdings (ENGROH) for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 27% to Rs17.5/share and Rs20/share, respectively. The downward adjustment in earnings outlook is on the back of revision in earnings of Engro Fertilizers and after incorporating expiry of Engro Vopak Terminal from mid 2026.
  • Engro Connect Tower Deal not yet incorporated: We have not incorporated earnings contribution from recently announced deal of Engro Connect as transaction is yet to be completed. However, based on our estimates, Engro Connect (Tower Company) will achieve breakeven in Year 1 of its operations and then will post earnings of Rs1.6bn and Rs5.3bn in Year 2 and Year 3, respectively, translating into per share earnings contribution of Rs1.3 and Rs4.4 respectively. The business will turn in profit due to expectations of falling interest expense on the back of sliding debt levels due to stronger cashflows of the business (EBITDA 60%).
  • Dividend Outlook Revised Down: In our previous estimates, we anticipated cash received from thermal assets sale transaction (Rs25bn) as part of one-off dividend in 2025. However, after acquisition of Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited (PMCL) tower business, we believe, these cashflows will be used to finance equity portion of the deal.
Engro Holdings (ENGROH): Earnings and Dividend Revised Down; Buy Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Mar 18 2025


Topline Securities


  • We revise down our earnings estimate for Engro Holdings (ENGROH) for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 27% to Rs17.5/share and Rs20/share, respectively. The downward adjustment in earnings outlook is on the back of revision in earnings of Engro Fertilizers and after incorporating expiry of Engro Vopak Terminal from mid 2026.
  • Engro Connect Tower Deal not yet incorporated: We have not incorporated earnings contribution from recently announced deal of Engro Connect as transaction is yet to be completed. However, based on our estimates, Engro Connect (Tower Company) will achieve breakeven in Year 1 of its operations and then will post earnings of Rs1.6bn and Rs5.3bn in Year 2 and Year 3, respectively, translating into per share earnings contribution of Rs1.3 and Rs4.4 respectively. The business will turn in profit due to expectations of falling interest expense on the back of sliding debt levels due to stronger cashflows of the business (EBITDA 60%).
  • Dividend Outlook Revised Down: In our previous estimates, we anticipated cash received from thermal assets sale transaction (Rs25bn) as part of one-off dividend in 2025. However, after acquisition of Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited (PMCL) tower business, we believe, these cashflows will be used to finance equity portion of the deal.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): Outlook remains positive; Energy portfolio divestment underway - By JS Research

Mar 5 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH) recently held analyst briefing session apprised that the financial results presented are based on the pre-merger accounts of Dawood Hercules (DAWH). Since the restructuring transaction structure took effect on January 1, 2025.
  • Under the new scheme of restructuring, EFERT (now 56% directly held by ENGROH versus indirect holding of 22.49% previously), is expected to drive earnings outlook for ENGROH. Furthermore, expansions in the tower segment coupled with lower interest rates to further support earnings.
  • The transaction of divestment of thermal assets portfolio is currently in-progress subject to certain regulatory approvals. The Thermal asset portfolio of the group, under Engro Energy Ltd, contains Engro Powergen Qadirpur Ltd, Engro Powergen Thar Ltd and Sindh Engro Coal Mining Co. Ltd. Also, the company is in process of divesting Engro Eximp Agriproducts (Pvt) Ltd.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Mar 5 2025


Taurus Securities


  • ENGROH’s (formerly known as Dawood Hercules Corporation Limited) management presented CY24 results of the Company where they specifically highlighted the ongoing process of divesting its various businesses i.e. Engro Eximp AgriProducts Ltd, Engro Powergen Qadirpur Ltd, Engro Powergen Thar (Pvt.) Ltd and Sindh Engro Coal Mining Ltd.
  • Regarding the performance of the group, ENGROH’s investment portfolio stood at PKR 112Bn (PKR 95.5Bn for Engro and PKR 16.5Bn in other listed equities) as on December 31, 2024. Other income (comprised of interest, dividend and quoted shares income) dropped during CY24 owing to bumper dividend distribution in CY23 which had limit the Company to generate higher return on investments during CY24.
  • On the basis of segment results, the management told that EFERT achieved highest ever profitability in CY24 due to better retention prices and cost optimization despite slowdown in operational activities amid major turnaround of its EnVen plant and decline in Urea sales. Further, the management quoted ECPL’s performance as worst ever in history, reflecting a drastic drop in demand for PVC and Ethylene due to lower construction demand, decline in global commodity prices and higher volume of imported PVC.
Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 5 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss their CY24 performance and future outlook. Here are the key highlights from the call:
  • Management confirmed that the recently disclosed financial results reflect the previous Dawood Hercules holding structure. From the next quarter, financials will be reported under the new structure, as the merger became effective on Jan 1, 2025.
  • On an Engro Corp basis, consolidated earnings from continuing operations increased by 7%YoY to PkR21bn (EPS: PkR17 @ 1,204mn shares) in CY24. The said growth was driven by higher urea prices and cost efficiencies, which offset the weaker performance of polymer segment and higher finance costs
Engro Holdings (ENGROH): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs5.42, up 10x YoY - Earnings lower than industry expectations - By Topline Research

Mar 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • Engro Holdings (ENGROH) announced its 4Q2024 results today, reporting a profit attributable to equity owners of Rs6.5bn (EPS of Rs5.42), down 10x YoY.
  • This took 2024 earnings to Rs12.8bn (EPS of Rs10.70) down 14% YoY.
  • To note, these are results of Dawood Hercules (DAWH), while the results of Engro Holding (post transaction) will be shared from Mar quarter onwards as effective date of the transaction structure was Jan 01, 2025.
Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): 4QCY24 Result Review — Earning increased; dividend skipped amid merger - By AKD Research

Mar 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH) announced its 4QCY24 results, reporting consolidated earnings of PkR5.8bn (EPS: PkR4.8) vs. PkR5.3bn (EPS: PkR4.4) in SPLY. This result pertains to previous Dawood Hercules’s holding structure and will be reported on new structure from the next quarter, as the merger became effective on Jan 1, 2025. Furthermore, company opted to skipped the final dividend, which we attribute to the ongoing merger.
  • Fertilizer business (EFERT) reported 8%YoY decline in earnings to PkR10.3bn in 4QCY24, primarily due to higher selling & distribution expenses and lower other income. While segment’s revenue grew on an annual basis, driven by a 17%/24%YoY rise in urea offtakes and prices, gross margins contracted by 3.8ppts YoY, as the 56%YoY surge in input gas prices outpaced the growth in selling prices.
  • EPCL’s profitability declined by 40%YoY in 4QCY24, mainly due to lower gross margins and higher finance costs. Wherein, a 45%/15%YoY increase in captive and process gas prices, respectively, led to a 12.8ppt YoY contraction in gross margins during 4Q. Additionally, finance costs surged 7.1x YoY to PkR1.8bn, largely due to a one-off reversal in SPLY and an increase in total outstanding debt.
Engro Holdings Ltd. (ENGROH): 4QCY24 Preview: Payout to remain higher despite 21%YoY decline in profitability - By AKD Research

Feb 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • 4QCY24E, down 21%YoY. We expect company to announce final dividend of PkR5.0/sh.
  • Decline of 8%/40%YoY in fertilizer and polymer businesses is expected to drive the overall earnings drop.
  • CY24 cumulative profitability is anticipated at PkR18.9bn (EPS: PkR15.7), down 7%YoY. We maintain our ’BUY’ stance on ENGROH with Dec’25 TP of PkR301/sh.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Fertilizer: Fertilizers profits likely to up 17% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 9 2025


Topline Securities


  • We expect Topline Fertilizer universe earnings to increase by 17% YoY and 67% QoQ in 2Q2025 mainly due to recover in Urea and DAP offtakes despite weak farm economics, and water shortage. The QoQ uptick in profitability is mostly due to Kharif season that started in April and ended in June, respectively.
  • Urea offtake is expected to increase by 3% YoY and 14% QoQ to 1.25mn tons in 2Q2025. Similarly, DAP offtakes are expected to increase by 16% YoY and 99% QoQ to 298k tons in 2Q2025.
  • Average Urea prices during 1Q2025 declined by 7% YoY and 1% QoQ to Rs4,477 per bag as companies announced price discounts during the quarter to capture the market share. Engro Fertilizers announced a discount of Rs100-140/bag started in Jan’25 followed by FFC that announced a price discount of Rs40/bag effective from May’25. Whereas, DAP prices have increased by 8% YoY and up 4% QoQ to average at around Rs12,525 per bag, respectively.
Technology: IT Exports in May-25 down by 1% YoY to record US$329mn - By Topline Research

Jun 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$329mn in May-2025, down by 1% YoY while up by 4% MoM. These monthly IT exports in May-2025 are higher than last 12-month average of US$314mn. This is the first YoY decline in IT exports after 19 consecutive months of growth.
  • Export proceeds per day were recorded at US$16.5mn for May-25 vs. US$15.9mn in Apr-25.
  • This takes 11MFY25 IT exports to ~US$3.5bn, up by 19% YoY.
Economy: Pakistan Inflation to clock in at 3.5-4.0% in Jun 2025 - By Topline Research

Jun 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jun 2025 is expected to clock in at 3.5-4.0% YoY, taking FY25 average to 4.64% compared to 23.41% in FY24. The MoM inflation in Jun 2025 is expected to clock in at +0.6%.
  • Inflation is expected to be higher due to an uptick in food prices by 1.3% MoM due to Eid festivities. The tomatoes and potato prices are expected to rise by 64% and 24%, respectively. However, this was partially offset by 33% decrease in chicken prices.
  • Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness a rise of 0.26% MoM in Jun 2025 due to an increase in electricity prices by 3.04% which is mostly offset by an 8% decrease Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).
Cement: Lahore High Court announces 6% royalty decision against Cement Manufacturers - By Topline Research

Jun 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • In a major development today, Lahore High Court larger bench has announced its decision against the Punjab based cement manufacturers regarding royalty case. The companies will have to pay the royalty amount at prescribed formula of 6% of retention price.
  • Companies may go for appeal in Supreme Court now, however, this decision to go for review is not final yet from cement manufacturers.
  • To recall that manufacturers based in Punjab were already provisioning for their raw material cost based on formula of 6% of retention price.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO): Corporate Brief in Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Jun 13 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan State Oil (PSO) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • As per management, efforts are ongoing to resolve circular debt, though no definitive plan is in place. The target is to recover both principal and Late Payment Surcharge (LPS). As of Mar 2025, PSO’s total receivables stand at Rs732bn, which included Rs325bn in principle from SNGPL alone. Overall LPS amount is over Rs200bn+. Investment plans are in place, pending liquidity, with options still under review.
  • Since Feb 2024, there has been no buildup in circular debt from SNGPL side as company has made it clear to Government and PSO that payments should flow on monthly basis. And this understanding is continuing and being implemented in true spirit. In contrast, OGDC and PPL receivables increased from Sui companies in 3QFY25
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey 56% of the participants expecting status quo; we also expect no change - By Topline Research

Jun 12 2025


Topline Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on May 05, 2025.
  • In a Poll conducted by Topline Securities, 56% of the market participant expect a status quo in upcoming monetary policy meeting compared to 31% in last poll. While 44% are expecting a rate cut of at-least 50bps.
  • Out of total 44% rate cut participants, 19% are expecting 50bps cut , and 25% are expecting 100bps cut.
Highnoon Laboratories (HINOON): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Jun 12 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities organized Corporate Briefing Session of Highnoon Laboratories(HINOON), where management discussed financial performance and future outlook.
  • HINOON outperformed the industry, with its revenue growing at a 10-year CAGR of 23%, compared to the pharmaceutical industry’s 10-year CAGR of 15%.
  • HINOON’s revenue grew by 25% to Rs24.6bn in 2024, of which 8% was driven by volume growth and 17% by price increases. The management expects the growth momentum to continue in the coming period and to outperform industry growth
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