Thal Limited (THAL): Auto sector rebound to drive growth - By JS Research
Mar 19 2025
JS Global Capital
Thal Limited (THAL) conducted its Analyst Briefing yesterday to discuss 2QFY25 financial performance and outlook. On a
standalone basis, the company reported an EPS of Rs12.54, reflecting a 2.2x YoY increase, primarily driven by a 39% YoY
surge in revenue and a 50% YoY rise in dividends from subsidiaries and associates. Meanwhile, consolidated earnings for
2QFY25 came in at Rs16.6/sh, marking an 87% YoY growth.
The company stated that the engineering segment is poised for strong performance in the remainder of FY25 and into FY26,
driven by the rebound in auto demand. Additionally, the company is in the testing phase for a new product – an oil sensor for
electric transformers – which is expected to generate substantial revenue, with an estimated demand of 50,000 units from KElectric alone.
Additionally, the management shared that SECMC (11.9% holding) is currently in Phase 3, which involves supplying
indigenous Thar coal to Lucky Electric Power Company Ltd (LEPCL). This transition is expected to significantly lower coal
costs from the current Rs37/kwh for imported coal to Rs12.5/kwh once Phase 3 is completed
Thal Limited (THAL): Auto sector rebound to drive growth - By JS Research
Mar 19 2025
JS Global Capital
Thal Limited (THAL) conducted its Analyst Briefing yesterday to discuss 2QFY25 financial performance and outlook. On a
standalone basis, the company reported an EPS of Rs12.54, reflecting a 2.2x YoY increase, primarily driven by a 39% YoY
surge in revenue and a 50% YoY rise in dividends from subsidiaries and associates. Meanwhile, consolidated earnings for
2QFY25 came in at Rs16.6/sh, marking an 87% YoY growth.
The company stated that the engineering segment is poised for strong performance in the remainder of FY25 and into FY26,
driven by the rebound in auto demand. Additionally, the company is in the testing phase for a new product – an oil sensor for
electric transformers – which is expected to generate substantial revenue, with an estimated demand of 50,000 units from KElectric alone.
Additionally, the management shared that SECMC (11.9% holding) is currently in Phase 3, which involves supplying
indigenous Thar coal to Lucky Electric Power Company Ltd (LEPCL). This transition is expected to significantly lower coal
costs from the current Rs37/kwh for imported coal to Rs12.5/kwh once Phase 3 is completed
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research
Jul 10 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325
points to reach an intraday high of
133,902, as investor sentiment
turned bullish on the back of strong
macroeconomic signals. Record-high
remittances of $38.3 billion and
robust demand in recent
government debt auctions drove
renewed interest in the banking
sector. This marks a key inflection
point for the market. With
improving fundamentals and fiscal
stability, the index appears poised
to consolidate above the 130,000
mark. Continued foreign inflows and
structural reforms could sustain this
momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research
Jul 10 2025
Topline Securities
Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025,
reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to
increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more
variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research
Jul 10 2025
AKD Securities
As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year
amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes,
and iii) increase in demand.
Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production
of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research
Jul 10 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment
remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn
valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted
investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while
total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research
Jul 10 2025
HMFS Research
The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high
of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking.
The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points.
The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in
cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn.
Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and
cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season,
furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in
FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the
KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn
shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn),
and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to
continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no
announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the
opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers.
Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's
momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid
the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and
companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research
Jul 10 2025
Taurus Securities
We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust
surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99%
QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the
start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with
Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32%
(up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company
had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2
months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up
9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism
has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150
per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea
prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ
on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and
DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower
side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing
monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research
Jul 10 2025
Topline Securities
We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25
and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by
company in 9MFY25.
We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast
compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15-
FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target
price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research
Jul 10 2025
Topline Securities
Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by
12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission
income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research
Jul 10 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at
132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to
1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326
(yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with
downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the
133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and
consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080
and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research
Jul 10 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its
highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This
unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal
government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised
approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial
proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10-
year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
Political uncertainties, security issues, and
external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian
Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome
land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price
fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact
sheet.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research
Jul 10 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325
points to reach an intraday high of
133,902, as investor sentiment
turned bullish on the back of strong
macroeconomic signals. Record-high
remittances of $38.3 billion and
robust demand in recent
government debt auctions drove
renewed interest in the banking
sector. This marks a key inflection
point for the market. With
improving fundamentals and fiscal
stability, the index appears poised
to consolidate above the 130,000
mark. Continued foreign inflows and
structural reforms could sustain this
momentum in the quarters ahead
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research
Jul 10 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at
132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to
1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326
(yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with
downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the
133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and
consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080
and 133,320, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the Day July 9, 2025 - By JS Research
Jul 9 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index declined by 0.6%
at day-end, closing at 132,577, as
investor sentiments remained
neutral, and renewed concerns over
Pakistan’s tax compliance
highlighted by the ADB. Pressure
was further amplified by rupee
volatility and weakness across global
equities. Near-term market
direction remains cautious, with
macroeconomic headwinds and
policy ambiguity weighing on
outlook. However, clarity on fiscal
reforms and global stabilization
could offer a potential recovery
path for the PSX in the medium
term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: FFC/ EFERT: 2QCY25 to see recovery in earnings - By JS Research
Jul 9 2025
JS Global Capital
We present 2QCY25 earnings estimates for Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT),
where we expect the earnings to improve led by increase in Urea and DAP volume by 3% YoY and 15% YoY.
FFC is expected to post EPS of Rs14.5 with DPS of Rs11.25. Despite weaker sales, FFC is expected to remain in a better
position compared to peers led by comparative advantage amid lower gas tariff coupled with higher dividend income during
the quarter.
EFERT is likely to post recovery in earnings which remained under pressure last year amid Enven plant turnaround. However
continued discounts and higher inventory pileups will continue to impact company’s operations. Accordingly, the company is
likely to report an EPS of Rs4.6 (3.7x higher YoY), along with a dividend of Rs4.5/share.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation expected - By JS Research
Jul 9 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session, closing at the 133,403 level, up 33 points
DoD. Trading volume stood high at 1,207mn shares, compared to 920mn shares traded
previously. The index is expected to test resistance at yesterday’s high of 134,200; a
break above this level could target 135,232 and 137,549. However, any downside is likely
to find support in the 131,930–132,700 range. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are both
in overbought territory, suggesting that a short-term correction cannot be ruled out. We
recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and wait for dips. The support and
resistance are placed at 132,666 and 134,170, respectively.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research
Jul 8 2025
JS Global Capital
The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters
to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st
August, 2025.
Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower
tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced
along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful
round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from
its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research
Jul 8 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points
DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous
session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level
could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any
downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and
MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on
dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604
and 133,999, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to
an all-time intraday high of
133,862.01, driven by optimism
over trade negotiations,
macroeconomic stability, and a
strong corporate earnings outlook.
Falling inflation, strengthening FX
reserves, and capital inflows are
enhancing investor confidence,
while higher taxes on alternative
assets are redirecting capital into
equities. With earnings season
ahead and technical indicators
breaking new ground, we expect the
bullish momentum to persist in the
near term, supported by favorable
macro trends and reallocation from
fixed-income instruments.
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd
(INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM,
reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative
budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units,
supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at
131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously.
The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target
133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in
the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive
outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate
support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
