Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Mar 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period
last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is
expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are
anticipated to increase during the month.
Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on
imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25.
Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jun’25 is likely to come in at 3.47% YoY, compared to same 3.46% YoY in May’25 and 12.6% YoY in the same
period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.46% MoM, Headline inflation for Jun’25 is expected to
increase, primarily driven by a sharp increase in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket. Food inflation is projected
at 3.6%YoY due to significant increase in key items: Spices (88% YoY), Milk (36%), rice 37%), meat (20%), and cooking oil
(16%). On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.6%, led by higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, and chicken.
The ongoing reforms in the energy sector as increase in the gas and power tariff expected to increase inflation going forward.
For the FY25, average inflation is forecasted to range between 4.5% YoY, compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24.
Pakistan Economy: Jun’25 NCPI to arrive at 3.4%YoY/0.4%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jun 24 2025
Taurus Securities
We expect headline inflation for the month of Jun’25 to clock-in at
3.4%YoY owing to the base effect primarily, along with the sequential increase in food inflation and elevated core inflation.
Hence, average inflation for FY25 is expected to touch-down at
4.7%YoY (down 19.3ppts over FY24).
During the month, we anticipate food prices to drive the general
price level on the back of significant surge in prices of vegetables
like Potatoes (up 20%MoM), Onions (up 8%MoM) & Tomatoes
(up 30%MoM), mainly. This is expected to be offset by ~17%
MoM fall in the price of Chicken (possibly due to lower consumption because of Eid) and stagnant or muted increase in the
prices of other food items for the month.
However, Chicken prices are likely to increase in the coming
months as the Government has proposed to impose a PKR 10
FED on one-day old chicks, as part of the Budget FY26.
Pakistan Economy: May’25 NCPI clocked-in at 3.5%YoY/-0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jun 3 2025
Taurus Securities
Headline inflation for the month of May’25 picked-up as anticipated due to the low base effect mainly, to clock-in at 3.5%YoY/-
0.2%MoM. Consequently, FYTD NCPI stands at 4.7%YoY. Accordingly, inflation in both Urban and Rural areas arrived in at
3.5%YoY and 3.4%YoY, respectively.
Nevertheless, MoM inflation dipped on account of slight decrease in food prices; ~1.2%MoM decline in utility prices due to
adjustment in electricity charges; muted impact of fuel prices;
and continued slowdown in core inflation. To note, core inflation
in Urban areas stood at 7.3%YoY, down 0.4%MoM and in Rural
areas it was recorded at 8.8%YoY, down 0.4%MoM, respectively.
In food category, excluding Eggs (up ~24.3%MoM), a broadbased drop was witnessed including substantial fall in prices of
Onions & Tomatoes. Conversely, core segments like Clothing &
Footwear , Furniture & Household Equipment, Restaurant & Hotels and the Miscellaneous showcased resilience. Additionally,
SPI inflation on a YoY basis fell 0.6% in May’25. However, WPI
inflation on a YoY basis was up 0.4% in May’25.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research
May 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base
effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop,
mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to
push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is
projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by
healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Mar 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period
last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is
expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are
anticipated to increase during the month.
Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on
imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25.
Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 NCPI clocks-in at 1.5%YoY/-0.8%MoM - By Taurus Research
Mar 4 2025
Taurus Securities
Headline inflation for Feb’25 clocks-in at 1.5%YoY/-0.8%MoM,
lowest in a decade, taking the FYTD NCPI to under 6%YoY.
Hence, the real-interest rate has also risen to 10.5%.Wherein, 2.7%
MoM drop in the food index (35% weight) was the major contributor to the lower NCPI readings, along with stable core inflation.
In geographical terms, CPI for Feb’25 was recorded at 1.81%YoY
and 1.1%YoY in Urban and Rural areas, respectively. However,
core inflation remained largely unchanged on a MoM basis, arriving at 7.8% in Urban and 10.4% in Rural areas. Nevertheless, the
decline in food prices was mainly driven by a sharp fall in prices
of Wheat, Wheat Flour, Vegetables like Onions, Tomatoes etc.,
Eggs, certain pulses and Tea. Utilities was down 0.3%MoM.
SPI was recorded at 30.4%YoY, along with WPI at 18.7%YoY.
Economy: Feb-25 NCPI expected at 1.8% YoY - By Alpha - Akseer Research
Feb 20 2025
Alpha Capital
The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 1.8% YoY in Feb-24, continuing the declining
inflation trend, following a reading of 2.4% YoY in Jan-24. We expect average
inflation of 5.2% YoY for FY25 with a run rate of 0.6% MoM. The base effect continues
to contribute to the declining inflation trend, bringing the print down to the lowest
in two decades. MoM inflation is expected to decrease by 0.6% MoM for the first time
since May-24, primarily due to the Food segment (down by 2.4% MoM) and a
negative Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), reducing the average electricity tarrif. The
Transport segment is expected to exhibit an increasing trend (up by 1.1% MoM)
owing to the rising POL prices.
The Food segment is expected to decline by 2.4% MoM in Feb-25. Items driving the
reduction in prices include: tomatoes (-54.6% MoM), onions (-27.4% MoM) and potatoes (-
20.8% MoM). Additionally, wheat prices are expected to reduce by 2.3% MoM due to
abolishment of wheat support price, as per the agreement with the IMF.
The Utilities segment is expected to stay flattish (up by 0.1% MoM) on the back of a negative
FCA of PKR 1.23/kwh for Dec-24, which is expected to reduce average electricity tariff for
consumers in Feb-24.
Economy: Jan’25 NCPI arrives at 2.4%YoY/0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research
Feb 3 2025
Taurus Securities
Headline inflation for Jan’25 clocks-in at 2.4%YoY/0.2%MoM,
lowest in over nine years, matching broad expectations—taking
the average NCPI for FYTD to 6.6%YoY. Wherein, 0.6%MoM
drop in the food index (35% weight) was the major contributor to
the lower NCPI readings, supported by falling core inflation.
On a geographic basis, NCPI in Urban areas clocked-in at 2.72%
YoY (4.4%YoY last month); and ~2%YoY in Rural areas (3.6%YoY
last month), respectively. Accordingly, core inflation stood at
7.8%YoY and 10.4%YoY in Urban and Rural areas, respectively.
Meanwhile, Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the month was recorded at 0.7%YoY as against 4.2%YoY in Dec’24. Further, WPI
decreased to 0.6%YoY as against 1.9%YoY in Dec’24.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research
Jan 23 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jan’25 is likely to arrive at 2.6%YoY versus 4.1%YoY in Dec’24, and 28.3%YoY same period last
year. On monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.4%MoM as increase in Restaurants/Hotels, House,
transport and Clothing to derive the inflation pace Jan’25.
The rise in monthly inflation is expected due to the mounting prices of Chicken, Pulse Moong, Sugar and
Firewood however, prices of Potatoes, Tomatoes, and Eggs expected to decline during the month.
Going forward, the decline in crop production in the country, driven by the end of support prices for wheat
and cotton, is expected to further fuel food inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant
factor in keeping inflation on the lower side. Any changes in energy-related commodities could also impact
the inflation trend.
Economy: Dec-24 NCPI expected at 4.3% YoY, lowest since Apr-18 – By Alpha - Akseer Research
Dec 27 2024
Alpha Capital
The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 4.3% YoY in
Dec-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 4.9%
YoY in Nov-24. This is expected to take 1HFY25 average inflation to 7.3% YoY.
MoM inflation is expected to remain flattish, up by 0.3% MoM, primarily on the
back of (i) a muted trend in the Food segment, (ii) a -1.1% MoM decrease in
utilities segment due to a reduction in electricity charges, and (iii) a 0.7%
MoM increase in Transport segment due to a rise in POL prices.
The Food segment is expected to stay flat with a slight
increase of 0.2% MoM in Dec-24, indicating winter effect on perishable food
items. Within this category, items driving the reduction in prices include:
wheat flour (-2% MoM), chicken (-13% MoM), and tomatoes (-14% MoM).
Electricity tariff for Dec-24 depicts the continuation of a
downward trend due to (i) a negative FCA of PKR 1.145/kwh, (ii) an updated QTA
of PKR 0.196/kwh, and (iii) the introduction of Winter Demand Initiative (WDI)
offering a discount on incremental consumption to domestic consumers (using
above 200 units). Cumulatively, we expect these developments to reduce
electricity charges by 5.9% MoM in Dec-24 and, consequently, a 1.1% MoM fall in
the Utilities segment in the NCPI print.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research
Jul 10 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325
points to reach an intraday high of
133,902, as investor sentiment
turned bullish on the back of strong
macroeconomic signals. Record-high
remittances of $38.3 billion and
robust demand in recent
government debt auctions drove
renewed interest in the banking
sector. This marks a key inflection
point for the market. With
improving fundamentals and fiscal
stability, the index appears poised
to consolidate above the 130,000
mark. Continued foreign inflows and
structural reforms could sustain this
momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research
Jul 10 2025
Topline Securities
Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025,
reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to
increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more
variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research
Jul 10 2025
AKD Securities
As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year
amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes,
and iii) increase in demand.
Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production
of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research
Jul 10 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment
remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn
valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted
investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while
total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research
Jul 10 2025
HMFS Research
The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high
of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking.
The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points.
The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in
cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn.
Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and
cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season,
furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in
FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the
KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn
shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn),
and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to
continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no
announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the
opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers.
Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's
momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid
the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and
companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research
Jul 10 2025
Taurus Securities
We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust
surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99%
QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the
start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with
Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32%
(up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company
had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2
months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up
9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism
has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150
per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea
prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ
on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and
DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower
side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing
monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research
Jul 10 2025
Topline Securities
We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25
and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by
company in 9MFY25.
We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast
compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15-
FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target
price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research
Jul 10 2025
Topline Securities
Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by
12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission
income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research
Jul 10 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at
132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to
1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326
(yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with
downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the
133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and
consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080
and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research
Jul 10 2025
Ismail Iqbal Securities
In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its
highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This
unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal
government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised
approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial
proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10-
year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
Political uncertainties, security issues, and
external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian
Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome
land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price
fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact
sheet.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research
Jul 10 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment
remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn
valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted
investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while
total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 9, 2025 - By AHCML Research
Jul 9 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The market witnessed a sharp sell-off after a rally, hitting an intraday low of 132,326.17 points. Profit-taking dominated the session, while rumours of delays in circular debt payments further
dampened investor sentiment. However, positive developments included DIB arranging USD 1 billion in sovereign financing for Pakistan, a surge in software services exports, which crossed
USD 1 billion for the first time and total services exports rose to USD 7.65 billion, supporting the market and limiting further declines. The index closed at 132,576.98, down 826.21 points (-
0.62%). Major decliners included FFC, ENGROH, BAHL, PSO, and HBL, collectively dragging the index down by 396.74 points. TPLP led volumes with 65.91 million shares traded. Overall market
volume stood at 905.74 million shares.
Economy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2HCY25 - By AHCML Research
Jul 1 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 2.68% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26. Pakistan’s economy is expected to recover modestly in
FY25, with services growing 2.9% YoY, supported by commodity sectors. Industrial growth is forecasted at 3.2% YoY, driven by LSM recovery, though energy-related challenges
pose risks. Agriculture is set to grow 1.8% YoY, led by livestock and forestry despite a decline in major crops. A shift to renewable energy is expected to cut costs and ensure
stable power supply, boosting efficiency.
This growth is supported by lower interest rates backed by lower inflation and a stable PKR. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in FY26, aided by improving supply of
food related commodities, stability in PKR and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.
The IMF agreement has boosted investor confidence, while a clear roadmap for debt management, FDI commitments from friendly countries, and ambitious privatization
efforts signal an economic turnaround. High-impact projects like Reko Diq and energy sector reforms under the SIFC enhance Pakistan's appeal as an investment destination,
creating opportunities for investors to leverage these developments at the PSX.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jun’25 is likely to come in at 3.47% YoY, compared to same 3.46% YoY in May’25 and 12.6% YoY in the same
period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.46% MoM, Headline inflation for Jun’25 is expected to
increase, primarily driven by a sharp increase in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket. Food inflation is projected
at 3.6%YoY due to significant increase in key items: Spices (88% YoY), Milk (36%), rice 37%), meat (20%), and cooking oil
(16%). On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.6%, led by higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, and chicken.
The ongoing reforms in the energy sector as increase in the gas and power tariff expected to increase inflation going forward.
For the FY25, average inflation is forecasted to range between 4.5% YoY, compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Gas Tariff Hike: Positive for Gas Utilities, Negative for Industry - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has approved a significant gas tariff hike across all
consumer categories effective July 1, 2025. The revised structure includes increase in fixed
monthly charges, PKR600 for protected households, PKR1,500 for non-protected users, and
PKR3,000 for high-usage domestic consumers. The adjustment is part of broader IMF-led reforms
to improve cost recovery, reduce subsidies, and contain circular debt in the energy sector.
The gas tariff hike is a structurally positive development for SSGC, SNGP, PPL, PSO, and OGDC, it
poses near-term risks for industrial players. The policy supports energy sector sustainability and
aligns with macroeconomic reform goals but warrants caution in sectors exposed to high gas
input costs. Investors may consider overweighting gas utilities and upstream names while
remaining selective in industrial exposure.
Economy: Pakistan-US Trade Talks Near Conclusion: Major Breakthrough on Tariffs Expected Next Week - By AHCML Research
Jun 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Pakistan and the United States are set to conclude trade negotiations next week, aiming to address reciprocal
tariffs and strengthen bilateral economic ties. The talks, led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, reflect a strategic push to reset relations amid evolving global alignments. A
key focus is easing the 29% US tariff on Pakistani exports, imposed under former President Trump, as Pakistan
posted a USD3 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024.To rebalance trade and attract US goodwill, Pakistan has
offered to increase imports of American goods, including crude oil, and provide investment incentives, particularly
in the mining sector.
A joint webinar this week showcased Pakistan’s USD7 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project, drawing interest from
US investors and officials. The US Export-Import Bank is currently evaluating financing proposals worth USD500mn
to USD1 billion for the project.
As the U.S. maintains high tariffs on key textile-exporting countries like China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, Pakistan
faces relatively moderate tariffs, higher than Egypt and Turkey, but far more favorable than many others. This
creates a strategic opening for Pakistan to increase its market share in the U.S., particularly in high-demand
categories where it already has a foothold. These include cotton trousers, knit shirts, denim, towels, bed linen, and
curtains.
Morning News: PM, Chinese envoy discuss CPEC projects - By AHCML Research
Jun 25 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday reiterated Pakistan’s
commitment to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), describing
it as a flagship project of the longstanding strategic partnership
between Islamabad and Beijing.
Farmers across Punjab have increasingly transitioned their
agricultural tube-wells to solar energy in response to rising input
costs driven by expensive electricity and diesel.
Banks and Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) have surrendered
their unclaimed deposits up to December 31, 2023 to the State Bank
of Pakistan. Claimants can apply for refund of their claims.
Morning News: Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire - By AHCML Research
Jun 24 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a “complete and
total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view
to ending the conflict between the two nations.
ST, duty exemptions on imported cotton, yarn being withdrawn,
Aurangzeb tells NA: Govt taking steps to support cotton farmers,
industry.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb informed the National
Assembly on Monday that the government has decided to withdraw
sales tax and duty exemptions on imported cotton and yarn to
support local cotton farmers and revive the domestic textile industry.
Oil Marketing Companies: Rising Oil Price impacts Import Bill Impact of Oil prices on Import Bill - By AHCML Research
Jun 13 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
With Israel’s military strike on Iran pushing Arab Light crude above USD 69/bbl as of June 13, 2025, Pakistan’s
vulnerability to oil price shocks has intensified. In 10MFY25, the country imported USD 12.8 billion worth of
petroleum products, up 3% YoY from the same period last year. Historically, for every USD 5 increase in oil prices,
Pakistan’s import bill rises by approximately USD800mn- 1,000mn per year. If the conflict prolongs, the elevated oil
prices could significantly strain the country’s trade balance and fiscal outlook.
Pakistan’s external sector may soon face renewed pressure, as higher global oil and LNG prices directly impact the
current account (CA). While the CA posted a USD 1.9 billion surplus in 10MFY25, this buffer could erode quickly if
oil costs remain elevated. A deterioration into deficit territory could require additional financing from multilateral
institutions, Saudi oil credit facilities, or bilateral loans. This may also complicate ongoing negotiations with the
IMF, potentially diverting crucial funds away from development projects toward essential commodity imports.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 Highlights - By AHCML Research
Jun 10 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
GDP Growth: 2.68% in FY25 (FY24: 2.51%), driven by industrial (4.77%) and services (2.91%)
sectors.
Inflation: Sharply fell to 0.3% in Apr’25 due to monetary tightening, stable food supplies, and
lower global commodity prices.
Fiscal Discipline: Primary surplus of 3.0% of GDP (FY24: 1.5%) and first fiscal surplus in 24 years
(Q1 FY25: PKR 1.896 tn).
