Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research
Apr 3 2025
Sherman Securities
- CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.
- The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).
- On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.
Auto: SUV Sales Rebounded With 84%MoM Growth - By Sherman Research
Jun 13 2025
Sherman Securities
- SUVs posted robust growth in sales with 2,638 units (up 84%MoM). This is the highest monthly sales numbers of the current year– barring one-off sales in January due to year end phenomenon.
- Within SUVs, Tucson sales grew to 569 units compared to only 5 units last month. Havel sales also climbed by 70%MoM.
- Company wise, highest sales was recorded by SAZEW ( Up 67%MoM) on back of elevated Havel sales. In 11MFY25, SAZEW lead the industry with the most sales growth (Up 2.3xYoY)
Pakistan State Oil (PSO): Corporate Brief in Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research
Jun 13 2025
Topline Securities
- Pakistan State Oil (PSO) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session today where management discussed financial performance and future outlook of the company.
- As per management, efforts are ongoing to resolve circular debt, though no definitive plan is in place. The target is to recover both principal and Late Payment Surcharge (LPS). As of Mar 2025, PSO’s total receivables stand at Rs732bn, which included Rs325bn in principle from SNGPL alone. Overall LPS amount is over Rs200bn+. Investment plans are in place, pending liquidity, with options still under review.
- Since Feb 2024, there has been no buildup in circular debt from SNGPL side as company has made it clear to Government and PSO that payments should flow on monthly basis. And this understanding is continuing and being implemented in true spirit. In contrast, OGDC and PPL receivables increased from Sui companies in 3QFY25
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research
Jun 13 2025
Insight Securities
- PSO has conducted its corporate briefing to discuss financial results and outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing
- Regarding power circular debt resolution, management highlighted that there is no clarity on the amount PSO will receive post this settlement.
- On market share, the company mentioned that it declined due to rising competition and discount offered by competitors. Management expect 3%- 5% growth in retail fuel offtake in FY26.
Pakistan Economy: Policy rate likely to remain ‘unchanged’ - By Taurus Research
Jun 13 2025
Taurus Securities
- State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on Monday June 16, 2025, wherein we expect the MPC to keep the benchmark policy rate ‘unchanged’ at 11%. Our expectations are primarily based on the following factors:
- Geo-political developments: Recent escalation between Iran and Israel, as well as the war between Russia & Ukraine, continues to pose upside risks to commodity prices in particular oil. For context, oil prices are up ~9% following Israel’s attack on Iran. These pressures pose a significant risk to inflation expectations.
- Core inflation remains elevated: Core inflation in Urban and Rural areas was recorded at 7.3% and ~9%, respectively in the latest NCPI reading for the month of May’25. We believe the MPC would like to see a more sustained decrease in the same.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Expected to trade range bound - By JS Research
Jun 13 2025
JS Global Capital
- The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 126,718 and slid to close at 124,093, down 260 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,025mn shares compared to 1,041mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at yesterdays’ low of 123,847 where a fall below initiating a corrective trend. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 124,880-125,925 level, followed by 126,718. The MACD is rising, while the RSI has shown weakness, signaling no clear trading view. Investors are advised to view any downside as an opportunity to ’Buy’, keeping stoploss below 123,238 level. The support and resistance are at 123,054 and 125,925, respectively.
Morning News: IMF raises eyebrows over Rs344b grant - By Vector Research
Jun 13 2025
Vector Securities
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over provision of Rs344 billion grants to various sectors without approval from the National Assembly. Sources said the multilateral lender termed the grant for defence, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and other sectors without the nod of parliament a violation of the govt-IMF agreement. The federal government has additionally spent Rs344.66 billion during the current fiscal year in the shape of grants.
- Pakistan slashed spending and pledged to stay the course on fiscal consolidation for the upcoming financial year, reinforcing the government’s commitment to its International Monetary Fund loan programme, reports Bloomberg. The budget plan unveiled Tuesday kept expenses unchanged, while proposing to increase taxes by 18 per cent to Rs2.56 trillion ($9 billion) for the year starting July, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in a parliament speech. That will lead to a primary balance surplus of 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product, said Aurangzeb, higher than the 1.6 per cent agreed with the IMF.
- In a significant win for Pakistan, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank have approved a concessional loan of $700 million for the Reko Diq project, a major mining and resource development initiative. This approval, granted during a board meeting in Washington, is a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan and a major setback for India, which had actively lobbied against the funding.
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey 56% of the participants expecting status quo; we also expect no change - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on May 05, 2025.
- In a Poll conducted by Topline Securities, 56% of the market participant expect a status quo in upcoming monetary policy meeting compared to 31% in last poll. While 44% are expecting a rate cut of at-least 50bps.
- Out of total 44% rate cut participants, 19% are expecting 50bps cut , and 25% are expecting 100bps cut.
Highnoon Laboratories (HINOON): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- Topline Securities organized Corporate Briefing Session of Highnoon Laboratories(HINOON), where management discussed financial performance and future outlook.
- HINOON outperformed the industry, with its revenue growing at a 10-year CAGR of 23%, compared to the pharmaceutical industry’s 10-year CAGR of 15%.
- HINOON’s revenue grew by 25% to Rs24.6bn in 2024, of which 8% was driven by volume growth and 17% by price increases. The management expects the growth momentum to continue in the coming period and to outperform industry growth
Auto: Pakistan Car sales in 11MFY25 up 39% YoY; 2/3 wheelers record ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 14,762 units in May 2025, reflecting a 35% YoY and 39% MoM rise.
- MoM rise was mainly due to lower base as Apr 2025 saw road closure in Sindh (due to strikes over canal issues) which delayed deliveries and thus lower sales.
- YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC discovers oil and gas at Fakir-1 in Bitrism E.L., Sindh - By AKD Research
Jun 12 2025
AKD Securities
- Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has announced an oil and gas discovery at the exploratory well Fakir-1, located in the Bitrism E.L., Khairpur, Sindh. The company (95% working interest), successfully tested the results in the Lower Goru formation with gas flow reaching 6.4mmcfd, alongside crude oil of 55bpd. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR0.36/sh for the company.
- We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on OGDC with a Dec’25 target price of PkR371/sh, alongside a DY of 9% during the same period. Our outlook is strengthened due to the following aspects: i) strong production profile, ii) higher future exploration prospects on back of improving liquidity situation, iii) 8.33% stake in highly prospective Reko Diq Mining Project, iv) offshore working interest in Abu Dhabi Offshore Block-5, along with consortium partners and v) improvement in cash payouts.
Auto: SUV Sales Rebounded With 84%MoM Growth - By Sherman Research
Jun 13 2025
Sherman Securities
- SUVs posted robust growth in sales with 2,638 units (up 84%MoM). This is the highest monthly sales numbers of the current year– barring one-off sales in January due to year end phenomenon.
- Within SUVs, Tucson sales grew to 569 units compared to only 5 units last month. Havel sales also climbed by 70%MoM.
- Company wise, highest sales was recorded by SAZEW ( Up 67%MoM) on back of elevated Havel sales. In 11MFY25, SAZEW lead the industry with the most sales growth (Up 2.3xYoY)
Pakistan Economy: FEDERAL BUDGET FY26, Key Budgetary Measures - By Sherman Research
Jun 11 2025
Sherman Securities
- We view the FY26 budget as Positive for the stock market, given that the announced targets appear realistic and largely aligned with IMF expectations.
- With the budget now behind us, investor attention will shift toward macroeconomic indicators—particularly inflation trends and the external account. In this context, the trajectory of international oil prices will play a key role during FY26.
- We do not foresee any material changes to our corporate earnings estimates, as key heavyweight sectors such as Energy and Banks remain largely insulated from new taxation measures. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 earnings growth projection at 12%.
Refinery: GRMs Sharply Recovering - By Sherman Research
Jun 4 2025
Sherman Securities
- After plunging to lowest level of US$4.5 per barrel in April 25, Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) of local refineries significantly recovered to US$9.3 per barrel during ongoing month of June. This is positive for local refineries as their earnings are directly linked with changes in GRMs.
- Just to recall, highest GRM was recorded at US$30 per barrel during July 2022 while average GRMs during last 5 years stood at US$7 per barrel.
- GRM is the sum of the weighted average spread of products which a refinery is yielding on every barrel of crude it processes. Major products include Diesel (HSD), Gasoline (MS) and Furnace oil (FO).
Economy: May CPI Clocked in at 3.5%YoY - By Sherman Research
Jun 2 2025
Sherman Securities
- CPI for May’2025 was recorded at 3.5%, the highest level recorded in CY25 so far, primarily driven by a sharp rise in the Food and Clothing indices.
- The food index posted inflation of 3.5%YoY in May’25. This increase was mainly driven by a increase fall in the prices of essential food items such as Meat (up 11.8%YoY), Chicken (up 52%YoY), Milk fresh (up 11%YoY), and Fresh fruits (up 30%YoY).
- On a MoM basis, CPI declined by 0.2%MoM primarily driven by housing index (down 1.2%MoM) aimed decline in electricity charges (down 7.02%MoM). The food index also fell by 0.2% MoM, largely due to continued decline in the prices of wheat, onions, and tomatoes.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 5%YoY, Inventory at 8-Year High - By Sherman Research
Jun 2 2025
Sherman Securities
- According to provisional data, urea sales during May’25 is expected to clock in at 418k tons (up 5%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to subdued sales over the past few months.
- Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 67%MoM mainly due to seasonal impact along with base impact due to canal protest in several parts of Sindh during the last month.
- Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 207k tons versus sales of 289k tons during the same period last year, down 28%YoY. On the flip side, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 85%YoY to 142k tons, mainly led by low base impact.
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Widens to 2–Year High - By Sherman Research
May 19 2025
Sherman Securities
- A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports of goods posted growth of 17%MoM at US$5.6bn during April’25. The growth was primarily driven by imports in the Machinery and Petroleum group on a weighted average basis, while Food imports remained flat.
- Wherein exports clocked in at US$2.1bn (down 18%MoM) mainly due to decrease in exports in the textile sector.
- Thus, the monthly trade deficit widened to US$3.4bn (up 59%MoM) in Apr’25 highest since May’23. On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$48.3bn (up 8%YoY) during 10MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of Machinery, Textile and Metals, while Petroleum imports declined. Thus, cumulative trade deficit clocked US$21.4bn (up 9%YoY) for 10MFY25.
Auto: Car Sales Expected to Remain Flat in April’25 -- By Sherman Research
May 7 2025
Sherman Securities
- The sales of leading car assemblers registered with PAMA are expected to remain flat clocking at 8,970 units in April’25 (down 1%MoM).
- The flat sales are driven by decline in sales of PSMC following price hikes on popular models. Additionally, INDU’s moderate sales aimed losing market share to rising competition from new players.
- Indus Motors (INDU) expected to report sales of 3,259 units (up 4%MoM) during the month. This growth in sales is mainly due to higher sale of Yaris, Corolla and Hilux
Fertilizer: Urea Sales to Decline 24%YoY, Inventory at 8 Year High - By Sherman Research
May 5 2025
Sherman Securities
- According to provisional data, urea sales during April’25 is expected to clock in at 251k tons, down 24%YoY. The YoY decline in urea sales is mainly due to weak farm economics amid lower support prices and higher input costs.
- Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to decline by 18%MoM which is expected to be a combination of both seasonal impact and canal protest in several parts of Sind which is also effecting sales. Just to recall, Sind consumes around 25% of the urea production in the country.
- Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 108k tons versus sales of 223k tons during the same period last year, down 51%YoY. On the flip side, EFERT is likely to witness recovery in urea sales of 7%YoY to 81k tons as compared to 75k tons during the last year.
Citi Pharma Limited (CPHL): Result Review: CPHL 3QFY25 EPS Re0.96 - By Sherman Research
Apr 30 2025
Sherman Securities
- Citi Pharma Limited (CPHL) announced 3QFY25 result today where in company posted earnings of Rs220mn (EPS Re0.96) as compared to net earnings of Rs211 (EPS Re0.93) during the same period last year, up by 4%YoY. The earning slightly grew mainly due to expansion in gross margins and lower effective taxation.
- During 3QFY25, the company’s topline declined by 6%YoY to Rs3.3bn, primarily due to depressed international API prices, which are linked to falling crude oil prices. Additionally, lower volumetric sales in the pharma sector further contributed to the decline.
- The company’s gross margin stood at 15% in 3QFY25 versus 13% in the same period last year. We believe, this improvement is likely driven by a higher contribution from formulations in the revenue mix, which typically carry higher margins than APIs
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Review: PIOC 3QFY25 EPS Rs4.3 - By Sherman Research
Apr 30 2025
Sherman Securities
- Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted net earnings of Rs974mn (EPS Rs4.3) as compared to Rs1.2bn (EPS Rs5.3) during the same period last year, down by 19%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
- During 3QFY25, PIOC’s topline clocked in at Rs7.9bn (down 8%YoY) as cement dispatches fell by 7%YoY.
- PIOC’s gross margin clocked in at 26% as compared to 32% during the same period last year. We believe that sharp decline is mainly attributed to lower capacity utilization and higher royalty expense during the quarter