Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 Earnings Call Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PAT for the quarter clocked-in at PKR 9.9Bn. Wherein, net interest income was up 6%YoY as the impact of lower interest rates was offset by building fixed-rate PIB book and growth in current accounts. Non-markup income was up 13%YoY. However, fee income came under pressure due to revision in the commission structure affecting the Bank i.e. home remittances. Operating cost was up significantly owing to surge in marketing expenses mainly and branch expansions. Finally, the Bank booked a net reversal of PKR 468Mn in provisions due to strong recoveries and reversals during the period.
  • Advances were up 29%YoY with a market share of 6.5%. NPL ratio stood at 4.4%. Coverage was recorded at 113%. The Bank aims to continue lending with an ADR of ~45%. Overall, asset quality remains robust.
  • Deposits clocked-in at slightly over PKR 2Trn, resulting in a market share of 6.1%. Current deposits were up 9%YoY, amounting to PKR 853Bn. The Bank’s CA ratio stands at 42% and is likely to improve further during the year. BAFL is targeting deposits growth of ~10-15% for CY25. 20 branches opened in 1QCY25 and 30 more planned for rest of CY25.
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Apr 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) held its analyst briefing today, where-in the management discussed the following:
  • Bank's profit for 1QCY25 stood at PkR7.0bn (EPS: PkR4.5), down 29%YoY, due to lower mark-up earned and higher non-markup expenses. Alongside the result, bank also announced an interim cash dividend of PkR2.5/sh.
  • NII recorded a modest 6%YoY growth in 1QCY25 to PkR31.3bn, primarily due to higher investment book, up 9.4%YoY, and net advances, up 30.6% YoY, compared to SPLY
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) held its analyst briefing yesterday, where-in the management discussed the following:
  • Bank’s profit for CY24 stood at PkR38.3bn (EPS: PkR24.3), up 5%YoY, due to higher Non-Interest income and low credit allowance charge.
  • Along with result the bank has announced final payout of PkR2.5/sh, taking full year payout to PkR8.5/sh
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): 4QCY24 Earnings Call Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Mar 6 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The Bank posted PBT of PKR 83.1Bn and PAT of PKR 38.3Bn for CY24, on the back of volumetric growth. Wherein, advances clocked in at PKR 1.2Trn (8.1% market share); Deposits stood at PKR 2.1Trn (6.4% market share); and Current Deposits stood at PKR 817Bn (6.7% market share), respectively. CAR as of Dec’24 stands at 17.96%. ROE contracted to ~29% for the year.
  • In terms of products, SME Lending clocked-in at PKR 52Bn (7% market share). Meanwhile, Consumer Lending stood at PKR 107Bn with BAFL having Credit Card, Auto, Personal and Home Loan portfolio of PKR 32Bn (2nd highest), PKR 41Bn (2nd highest), PKR 11Bn (2nd highest), and PKR 23Bn (highest), respectively. Home Remittances market share was 15.6%. Additionally, the Bank also generated over USD 7Bn in trade volume during the year. Digital throughput of PKR 9.5Trn.
  • Deposits growth was restricted to 2%YoY, with net advances increasing 51%YoY as the Bank focused on meeting the ADR targets. Nevertheless, ADR tax was abolished by the year-end with the corporate tax rate being enhanced by 5% for the Bank. NPL ratio dropped to 3.7%, while coverage stood at 110.7%. CASA stood at 77.1%. Current account ratio stood at 38%.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs2.94, down 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Research

Jan 30 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 4Q2024 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs4.64bn (EPS of Rs2.94), down 49% YoY and 65% QoQ
  • The result came lower than industry expectations due higher than estimated operating expenses.
  • Alongside the result, bank has announced cash dividend of Rs2.5/share taking 2024 dividend to Rs8.5/share. 4Q2024 dividend was also above expectations.
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): Earnings Miss on higher OPEX - By IIS Research

Jan 30 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Bank Alfalah has announced 4QCY24 result, where the bank has posted unconsolidated earnings of PKR 2.96/sh, down by 49% YoY and 64% on QoQ basis. The result is below our expectations mainly because of higher-thanexpected increase in operating expenses. The bank has announced final cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh against our expectation of PKR2/sh, taking full year dividend to PKR 8.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) down 10% YoY and 6% QoQ, mainly due to lower advances income as banks lent cheaper to meet the ADR target, abolished in late December, and larger repricing has already been reflected in 2Q/3Q.
  • Non-markup income increase by 23% and down by 9% QoQ. The YoY increase is because of 2.5x increase in gain on sale securities and QoQ decline is because of lower FX income amid stable PKR/USD. Furthermore, fee income also down by 2% on YoY basis and up by 6% on QoQ basis.
Bank Al Falah Limited (BAFL): 4QCY24 EPS arrives at PKR 2.9; PAT down 46%YoY/65%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Jan 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 2.9. 4QCY24 PAT down 46%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 25.3. CY24 PAT up 10%YoY – below expectations. BAFL also announced a final DPS of PKR 2.50, taking the full year payout to PKR 8.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 10%YoY/6%QoQ amid falling net spread due to re-pricing of the asset side in response to the aggressive cut in the benchmark policy rate by the SBP; offset by falling cost of funds to an extent.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 17%YoY/Down 11%QoQ, driven by 7% QoQ growth in fee and commissions. However, the highlight was the booking of hefty capital gains as anticipated amounting to PKR 5.3Bn in 4QCY24 (PKR 15.4Bn in CY24).
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
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