Pakistan Economy: Apr-25 CPI likely at 0.3%, lowest in over six decades - By JS Research
Apr 22 2025
JS Global Capital
- Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to maintain its disinflationary momentum, with Apr-2025 CPI likely to fall to 0.3%. The main contributor to this is the significant decrease in food inflation, which is expected to post a 5.7% YoY decline in Apr-2025. This would take 10MFY25 average inflation to 4.9%, down from 10MFY24 average of 26.2%.
- Due to the rapid disinflation, our base case CPI forecast for FY25 now averages 5.0%. The rolling 12-month forward CPI estimate stands at around 6.4%.
- The SBP held interest rates steady at the last MPC meeting, but given the lower-than-expected inflation figures so far, a rate cut of 50-100bps could be on the table in the near future. SBP is scheduled next to meet on 5th May 2025 and 16th June 2025 for its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings.