Market Wrap: Market Holds Ground Amid Cautious Sentiment - By HMFS Research

Apr 22 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange wavered between confidence and caution today as the KSE-100 index rode early optimism but lost steam by session close. Bolstered by the low SPI inflation print, which rekindled expectations of a policy rate cut in the upcoming MPC meeting, the index surged to an intraday high of 834 points. In parallel, the ongoing result season kept the market buzzing with selective value buying. However, the enthusiasm was moderated by uncertainty around whether corporate earnings would meet or miss expectations. This hesitancy prompted profit-taking towards the tail end of the session, causing the index to close nearly flat at 118,430—up by a marginal 47 points. Nonetheless, the conviction behind the day’s activity remained intact, with robust participation. The KSE-100 saw 354mn shares traded, while the broader market recorded an impressive 740mn shares. Volume leaders included BOP (117mn), POWER (68mn), and PIBTL (59mn). Looking ahead, the market retains room for upward movement given its proximity to all-time highs, but its trajectory will likely hinge on the strength of upcoming earnings and policy clarity. For now, a balanced approach focused on fundamentally robust scrips remains key as investors navigate this phase of cautious optimism.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Surges to Historic High, Ends Day Tepid - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • The benchmark KSE-100 index touched a new all-time intraday high of 134,200 amid continued positive sentiment; however, gains were trimmed by the close, with the index settling nearly flat at 133,403—up just 33.05 points. Value buying was evident in the banking sector, while profit-taking emerged in selective bluechip stocks. Trading activity remained robust, with benchmark index volumes hitting 324mn shares and broader market participation crossing 1.2bn shares. Volume leaders for the day included TPLP (97mn), WTL (64mn), and HASCOL (48mn). Going forward, market direction will likely hinge on institutional flows and clarity on macroeconomic triggers. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Morning News: SBP reserves hit nearly 40-month high on multilateral, commercial loans - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s central bank reserves hit around 40-month high this week, helped by multilateral and commercial loans that pushed the dollar stockpile to reach $14.51 billion as of June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion or 40.41% WoW to $12.73 billion during the week ended on June 27, 2025. The reserves held by commercial banks rose by $30.9m or 0.58% WoW to $5.36bn. Similarly, the country's total reserves increased by $3.69bn or 25.66% WoW to $18.09bn.
  • At the FfD4 conference in Spain, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to international partnerships and economic reforms for sustainable development. He held key bilateral meetings with global counterparts, including officials from the Netherlands, World Bank, IFAD, and ICC, discussing cooperation in trade, climate resilience, institutional capacity, and rural development. Highlights included updates on Pakistan’s IMF program, the upcoming National Green Taxonomy, and the endorsement of the World Bank’s 10-year Country Partnership Framework, reflecting Pakistan’s active engagement in advancing its reform and resilience agenda.
  • Banks across Pakistan have increased the fee for withdrawing cash from non-host ATMs—from Rs 23.44 to Rs 35 per transaction—effective from July 2025. Of this, Rs 28 goes to the ATM-owning bank to cover operational and maintenance costs, with Rs 7 retained by 1LINK, the interbank network. The move, justified by rising interbank transaction and equipment servicing costs, raises concerns for low-income and rural users, for whom frequent small withdrawals now carry a heavier burden amid inflation and economic strain.
Market Wrap:; Riding the Wave: PSX Holds Ground After Scaling New Heights - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • The equity market extended its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 Index continuing its record-breaking streak, reaching a new intraday high of 131,325—up by 981 points. However, the momentum tapered in the latter half of the session, with the index holding in the green but ultimately closing at 130,687—recording a modest gain of 343 points. Investor confidence remained elevated, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators and renewed optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves surpassing IMF benchmarks. The rally was primarily supported by strong performance in the banking and energy sectors, both of which contributed significantly to the index's gains. Trading activity remained robust, with 280mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 897mn shares exchanged across the broader market. Volume leaders included WTL (49mn), IMAGE (37mn), and BOP (35mn). Looking ahead, while the bullish momentum is expected to continue, the sharp rally may trigger short-term profit-taking as investors capitalize on recent gains. Nonetheless, improving economic fundamentals are expected to provide a cushion for market stability. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Morning News: ADB, Sindh launch Rs440m initiative - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in collaboration with the Government of Sindh, has launched a Rs440 million business recovery and empowerment initiative for families impacted by the 2022 floods. According to a statement issued on Wednesday, ADB's Gender Specialist Judha Bukhari led a delegation to Hyderabad on Wednesday and held a strategic meeting with the Hyderabad Chamber of Small Traders & Small Industry (HCSTSI). During the meeting, Bukhari stated that 2.1 million families were affected by the floods and, in the first phase, over 6,000 households will receive financial assistance ranging from Rs100,000 to Rs300,000 to help them establish small businesses suited to their needs.
  • The government spent Rs905 billion on development schemes in the last fiscal year, which was lower than the allocation and may now require a downward revision in the 2.7% economic growth rate that had been worked out on the basis of Rs1.1 trillion in expenses. Of the Rs905 billion, a little over half — or Rs456 billion — was spent during the last two months (May-June), also underscoring the need to revisit the current budget strategy that artificially suppresses expenses. According to provisional figures, the federal government spent Rs905 billion under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) in the fiscal year 2024-25, which ended on Monday.
  • Pakistan's manufacturing sector showed signs of cooling as the HBL Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 in June, down from 51.1 in the previous month. While the reading remained above the no-change threshold of 50 for the 14th consecutive month, it signaled a notable slowdown in momentum due to weakness in new order volumes. This was the first instance of consecutive new order contractions. To align with softer production needs, firms proactively reduced both employment levels and input procurement. Despite the slowdown, there were encouraging developments on the export front.
Market Wrap: All-Time High for KSE-100: Stability and Liquidity Fuel Market Gains - By HMFS Research

Jul 2 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan stock market continued its upward trajectory, marking a significant milestone as the KSE-100 index touched an all-time high of 130,546 points during today’s session. The rally was underpinned by improving investor sentiment, supported by a declining inflationary trend and broadly stable macroeconomic indicators. The banking sector played a pivotal role in driving the index higher, reflecting renewed confidence in cyclical sectors amid expectations of sustained economic stability. By the close, the KSE-100 settled at 130,344, recording a substantial gain of 2,145 points. Trading activity remained robust, with 346mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and total market volumes reaching 1.02bn shares. The most actively traded stocks included WTL (90mn shares), BOP (90mn shares), and KOSM (46mn shares). While the short-term outlook remains positive, the sharp rally may lead to some profit-taking or a short pause in the upward trend as the index nears higher levels. Going forward, investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic developments and maintain focus on fundamentally sound stocks with strong long-term growth potential, as market volatility may increase in the sessions ahead