Pakistan Steel: No change in fortunes - By Foundation Research
Apr 22 2025
Foundation Securities
- We expect profitability for long steel players to remain unappealing attributable to (1) weak rebar prices, (2) higher delta of graded vs. ungraded steel, and (3) lower utilization.
- As for flat steel, profitability is anticipated to weaken YoY due to (1) lackluster domestic sales, (2) inflated energy cost, and (3) compressed Int’l HRC-CRC spreads. However, on a quarterly basis the same is expected to increase on account of (1) sequential decline in HRC prices, (2) easing flows from FATA/PATA region, (3) stable local sales volumes, and (4) rise in exports.
- We expect ISL’s profitability to ↓/↑46/8% YoY/QoQ to PKR 0.88/sh. As for the long steel players, we expect ASTL to report LPS of PKR 1.65/sh in 3QFY25 against LPS of 2.24 in 3QFY24, whereas MUGHAL is forecasted to post an EPS of PKR 1.33/sh, (↑4.3/2.1x YoY/QoQ).