Autos: Result Preview: Stronger profits, brighter outlook - By AKD Research
Apr 22 2025
AKD Securities
- INDU 3QFY25E earnings to clock in at PkR5.7bn (EPS: PkR72.8): We anticipate INDU to report earnings of PkR5.7bn (EPS: PkR72.8) in 3QFY25E compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR56.6), a 29% YoY increase. The said growth is primarily driven by an increase in total sales volumes, up by 40%YoY to 9,077 units compared to 6,503 units in SPLY, given a low base due to supply chain disruptions leading to multiple days of plant shutdown last year. Topline is anticipated to rise by 31%YoY, primarily attributed to the aforementioned reasons, and inclusion of Corolla Cross sales for the whole quarter. Moreover, gross margins are expected to clock in at 14.5%, remaining largely flat YoY. With regards to opex, decline in warranty claims associated with the launch of Corolla Cross sales would lead to a 58%YoY decrease in operating expenses. Overall, 9MFY25, earnings are expected to reach PkR199.5/sh, up 67%YoY. Additionally, we anticipate INDU to announce an interim dividend of PkR44.0/sh, bringing the 9MFY25 dividend to PkR120.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on the scrip with a Dec’25 target price of PkR3,350/sh.
- HCAR – 4QMY25E earnings to clock in at PkR1.1bn (EPS: PkR7.92): We expect HCAR’s earnings to clock in at PkR1.1bn (EPS: PkR7.92) vs. PkR1.4bn (EPS: PkR9.60) in SPLY, a decline of 17%YoY. The said decrease in profitability is due to one-off tax reversal of PkR618mn in 4QMY24. However, total sales volume during the quarter increased by 12%YoY to 5,653 units in 4QMY25. Subsequently, topline is projected to increase by 7%YoY to PkR26.8bn (vs. PkR24.9bn in 4QMY24). Additionally, gross margins are projected to improve to 9.8%, mainly due to decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 15.3%/15.0%YoY, respectively, and enhanced proportion of Civic in sales mix. Additionally, finance cost is expected to decline by 92%YoY amid decline in total outstanding debt and declining financing rates. Overall, earnings for MY25 are anticipated to decline by 8%YoY due to aforementioned tax reversal in 4QMY24. Moreover, we anticipate HCAR to announce a final dividend of PkR6.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ stance on the stock with Dec’25 target price of PkR426/sh.