Pakistan Oil and Gas: Lower production and softer oil prices to hamper sector profitability in 3Q - By Foundation Research
Apr 24 2025
Foundation Securities
- We expect E&P sector profitability to decline 11% YoY during 3QFY25. This is attributable to: 1) avg. oil prices tumbling 5% YoY in 3Q, 2) oil/gas avg. production plummeting 12/5% YoY, and 3) stable PKR/USD parity. On a QoQ basis, we expect sector profitability to inch up 4% on the back of improvement in production stats (oil/gas avg. production surge by 1/7% QoQ) and receding exploration costs.
- Oil and gas industry production receded in 3QFY25 due to forced curtailment: Oil/gas production declined 12/5% YoY in 3Q, this trend has been ongoing for the last 4 quarters mainly due to forced curtailment of local production to facilitate imported RLNG flows. It is pertinent to highlight that pressure of gas supply led to constraints in system capacity forcing domestic oil & gas production to fall. Considering the same and following some resentment from domestic players, the government has delayed some planned shipments.
- Status of drilling activity: In 9MFY25, a total of 15/23 of exploratory/development wells were spud as against planned 27/40 in the beginning of FY25. Last year, 11/30 exploratory/development wells were spud against 21/35 planned. Improved exploration activity in the E&P’s space symbolizes easing of cash flows along with multiple block auctions.