AGP Limited (AGP): Profitability prospects to remain attractive; Buy - By JS Research

Apr 25 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), expecting the company to post consolidated earnings of Rs861mn, up 2.2x YoY, taking EPS to Rs3.07. The significant rise in profitability is primarily driven by rise in drug prices with higher nonessential mix, increase in sales volume, and lower finance costs.
  • On QoQ basis, profitability is likely to witness a dip owing to relatively lower margins (compared to the previous quarter with peak sales volumes/ margins). Accordingly, we expect gross margins to hover around 59% in 1QCY25, down 5ppts QoQ.
  • While seasonal factors weighed on quarterly margins, annual gross margins are expected to remain stable, underpinned by a higher non-essential mix (>60%), softer API prices, and the full internalization of the Viatris portfolio by end-CY25.
AGP Limited (AGP): 1QCY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 3.04, up 1.1xYoY - By Taurus Research

Apr 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25: – EPS: PKR 3.04, PAT: PKR 1.0Bn, up 1.3xYoY, in line with expectations.
  • AGP’s topline clocked-in at PKR 7.1Bn for 1QCY25, mainly benefitting from the deregulation of non essential medicines and increase in prices of multiple essential medicines. Gross margins increased ~4pptsYoY by arriving at ~58% as compared to ~53% in the SPLY (as expected) driven by higher prices of medicines.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 385Mn as compared to PKR 730Mn, down 47%YoY/27%QoQ driven by lower policy rate and the Company’s reduced borrowings. Whereas, tax rate arrived at 40% compared to 37%.
AGP Limited (AGP): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • AGP Limited was incorporated as a public limited company in May 2014. The Company got listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange Limited on 05 March 2018. The principal activities of the Company include import, marketing, export, dealership, distribution, wholesale and manufacturing of all kinds of pharmaceutical products.
  • In CY24, stand-alone revenue clocked in at PKR 18.5Bn compared to PKR 13.8Bn, up 34% over the SPLY. While consolidated revenue clocked in at PKR 25Bn as compared to PKR 18.7Bn, up 34% driven by higher prices. Consolidated gross margins increased 4ppts arriving at 58% compared to 54% in the SPLY primarily attributable to pass on effects of prices to customers.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 2.6Bn compared to PKR 1.6Bn, up 65% in the SPLY driven by higher interest rates on the back of higher borrowing requirement. Similarly, effective tax rate clocked in at 33% compared to 31% mainly due to the higher tax rate and shift to normal tax regime. Consequently, PAT arrived in at PKR 2.9Bn as compared to PKR 1.8Bn, up 64% over the SPLY. Resultantly, earnings increased by 70% arriving at PKR 9.53/sh compared to PKR 5.59/sh
AGP Limited (AGP): Corporate Briefing Notes - By Chase Research

Apr 28 2025



  • AGP Limited reported a net profit of PKR 2.08 billion (EPS: PKR 7.44) in CY24, reflecting a 75% increase compared to PKR 1.19 billion (EPS: PKR 4.25) in the previous year.
  • Net sales rose 34% YoY to PKR 18.54 billion, while consolidated revenue reached PKR 25.03 billion, up from PKR 18.74 billion in SPLY. Growth was driven by a 21% increase in volumes and a 13% price impact. Consolidated gross margins improved to 58.1% from 53.6% in the SPLY, while operating margins expanded to 28.5% from 22.7%, attributed to successful price adjustments and operational efficiencies
  • Management highlighted that recent acquisitions have contributed significantly to performance, with a 5-year consolidated revenue CAGR of 38%, of which 52% was driven by inorganic growth.
AGP Limited (AGP): Profitability prospects to remain attractive; Buy - By JS Research

Apr 25 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), expecting the company to post consolidated earnings of Rs861mn, up 2.2x YoY, taking EPS to Rs3.07. The significant rise in profitability is primarily driven by rise in drug prices with higher nonessential mix, increase in sales volume, and lower finance costs.
  • On QoQ basis, profitability is likely to witness a dip owing to relatively lower margins (compared to the previous quarter with peak sales volumes/ margins). Accordingly, we expect gross margins to hover around 59% in 1QCY25, down 5ppts QoQ.
  • While seasonal factors weighed on quarterly margins, annual gross margins are expected to remain stable, underpinned by a higher non-essential mix (>60%), softer API prices, and the full internalization of the Viatris portfolio by end-CY25.
AGP Limited (AGP): 4QCY24 expected EPS of PKR 2.86, up 35%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24: – EPS: PKR 2.86, PAT: ~PKR 849Mn, up ~35% over the SPLY.
  • AGP’s topline is expected to arrive-in at ~PKR 7.8Bn for 4QCY24, mainly benefitting from the deregulation of non essential medicines and the Government’s decision of increasing prices of multiple essential medicines. Currently, AGP's revenue mix is evenly split between essential and non-essential medicines on a consolidated basis. Similarly, we expect the gross margin to hover around 54%, aligning with the Company’s historic trend.
  • For CY24, sales are expected to clock-in at ~PKR 25Bn, up 36%YoY. However, the upside in revenue is likely to be off-set by increase in expenses, finance cost and taxation, up 33%/64%/67% YoY resulting in EPS of PKR 8.12. We expect future earnings to follow the same trend as the Company is expected to benefit from deregulation, looking forward.
AGP Limited (AGP): Deregulation to boost 4QCY24 bottom-line - By JS Research

Jan 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview 4QCY24 earnings for AGP Limited (AGP), where we expect earnings to register 71% YoY growth, arriving at Rs3.63/share mainly driven by higher prices post deregulation of non-essential medicines implemented majorly during 3QCY24, making 4Q the first quarter reflecting the major impact of the recent change. We also expect volumetric growth to support AGP’s bottom-line growth.
  • Cumulatively, CY24E EPS (consolidated) accumulates to Rs8.89 (+59% YoY). Alongside results, we expect AGP to announce a final cash dividend of Rs3.5/share for CY24.
  • The stock has rallied 49% in the past 3 months, however, has underperformed the Pharma sector. We believe the underperformance is unwarranted given the company’s higher earnings growth profile and attractive valuations. We reiterate our Buy rating for the stock, offering 36% upside to our Dec-2025 TP of Rs250.
AGP Ltd (AGP): Unlocking value through strong growth; Buy – By JS Research

Nov 19 2024


JS Global Capital


  • We reinstate coverage on AGP Ltd (AGP) with a Target Price of Rs220/share; implying an upside of 48% from current levels
  • strong growth trajectory - AGP is well-positioned for 5-year revenue CAGR of 16% (CY24-CY29E), driven by its robust product portfolio, expanding distribution network, and strategic acquisitions (Sandoz and Viatris).
  • cost optimization and industry-leading margins – with expectations to maintain next 5-year average gross margins at 59%, vis-à-vis historical 5-year average gross margins of 55%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the Day July 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index declined by 0.6% at day-end, closing at 132,577, as investor sentiments remained neutral, and renewed concerns over Pakistan’s tax compliance highlighted by the ADB. Pressure was further amplified by rupee volatility and weakness across global equities. Near-term market direction remains cautious, with macroeconomic headwinds and policy ambiguity weighing on outlook. However, clarity on fiscal reforms and global stabilization could offer a potential recovery path for the PSX in the medium term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: FFC/ EFERT: 2QCY25 to see recovery in earnings - By JS Research

Jul 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QCY25 earnings estimates for Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT), where we expect the earnings to improve led by increase in Urea and DAP volume by 3% YoY and 15% YoY.
  • FFC is expected to post EPS of Rs14.5 with DPS of Rs11.25. Despite weaker sales, FFC is expected to remain in a better position compared to peers led by comparative advantage amid lower gas tariff coupled with higher dividend income during the quarter.
  • EFERT is likely to post recovery in earnings which remained under pressure last year amid Enven plant turnaround. However continued discounts and higher inventory pileups will continue to impact company’s operations. Accordingly, the company is likely to report an EPS of Rs4.6 (3.7x higher YoY), along with a dividend of Rs4.5/share.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation expected - By JS Research

Jul 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session, closing at the 133,403 level, up 33 points DoD. Trading volume stood high at 1,207mn shares, compared to 920mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test resistance at yesterday’s high of 134,200; a break above this level could target 135,232 and 137,549. However, any downside is likely to find support in the 131,930–132,700 range. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are both in overbought territory, suggesting that a short-term correction cannot be ruled out. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and wait for dips. The support and resistance are placed at 132,666 and 134,170, respectively.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
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