Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research
Apr 29 2025
- The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.
- In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.
- In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey 56% of the participants expecting status quo; we also expect no change - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on May 05, 2025.
- In a Poll conducted by Topline Securities, 56% of the market participant expect a status quo in upcoming monetary policy meeting compared to 31% in last poll. While 44% are expecting a rate cut of at-least 50bps.
- Out of total 44% rate cut participants, 19% are expecting 50bps cut , and 25% are expecting 100bps cut.
Highnoon Laboratories (HINOON): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- Topline Securities organized Corporate Briefing Session of Highnoon Laboratories(HINOON), where management discussed financial performance and future outlook.
- HINOON outperformed the industry, with its revenue growing at a 10-year CAGR of 23%, compared to the pharmaceutical industry’s 10-year CAGR of 15%.
- HINOON’s revenue grew by 25% to Rs24.6bn in 2024, of which 8% was driven by volume growth and 17% by price increases. The management expects the growth momentum to continue in the coming period and to outperform industry growth
Auto: Pakistan Car sales in 11MFY25 up 39% YoY; 2/3 wheelers record ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research
Jun 12 2025
Topline Securities
- Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 14,762 units in May 2025, reflecting a 35% YoY and 39% MoM rise.
- MoM rise was mainly due to lower base as Apr 2025 saw road closure in Sindh (due to strikes over canal issues) which delayed deliveries and thus lower sales.
- YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC discovers oil and gas at Fakir-1 in Bitrism E.L., Sindh - By AKD Research
Jun 12 2025
AKD Securities
- Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has announced an oil and gas discovery at the exploratory well Fakir-1, located in the Bitrism E.L., Khairpur, Sindh. The company (95% working interest), successfully tested the results in the Lower Goru formation with gas flow reaching 6.4mmcfd, alongside crude oil of 55bpd. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR0.36/sh for the company.
- We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on OGDC with a Dec’25 target price of PkR371/sh, alongside a DY of 9% during the same period. Our outlook is strengthened due to the following aspects: i) strong production profile, ii) higher future exploration prospects on back of improving liquidity situation, iii) 8.33% stake in highly prospective Reko Diq Mining Project, iv) offshore working interest in Abu Dhabi Offshore Block-5, along with consortium partners and v) improvement in cash payouts.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research
Jun 12 2025
JS Global Capital
- Bulls dominated the session as KSE-100 index gained 2,328 points to close at 124,353 level. Volumes stood at 1,041mn shares versus 593mn shares traded previously. If the gain continues, the next target will be at 125,947 which may later rise to 128,026 level. However, any downside will find support within 123,240-123,530 range. The RSI and the MACD have continued to rise, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below 123,238 level. The support and resistance are at 123,531 and 124,881, respectively.
Morning News: Budget 2025-26: Threat of Rs500bn tax hike if enforcement measures blocked - By Vector Research
Jun 12 2025
Vector Securities
- Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Wednesday repeatedly warned that the government would be compelled to impose a further Rs400 to 500 billion in taxes if parliamentarians failed to approve the sweeping enforcement measures proposed in the 2025-26 budget — as they were already cleared by the International Monetary Fund.
- Pakistan looks set to exceed its annual remittances target of $38 billion with $3.7bn inflows in May. So far in the 11 months of the fiscal year 2025 — July to May — Pakistan received $35bn in remittances. With the addition of June inflows, the total remittances are expected to exceed the revised target of $38bn for the current financial year.
- The government raised approximately Rs1.1 trillion through auctions of Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and floating-rate Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). In the MTB auction, bids worth Rs853 billion were accepted by the State Bank of Pakistan. Similarly, the bond auction saw total acceptance of Rs206.91 billion.
Morning News: Housing scheme with SBP’s help: Rs5bn set aside for mark-up subsidy - By WE Research
Jun 12 2025
- In the FY26 budget, the federal government has allocated Rs 5 billion for a mark-up subsidy under a new low-cost housing scheme, launched in partnership with the State Bank of Pakistan, along with Rs 1 billion for the Naya Pakistan Housing Authority, to address the country’s housing shortage and revitalize the construction sector. This initiative follows the suspension of the "Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar" scheme in 2022 and includes several tax incentives, such as reduced withholding tax on property purchases and the abolition of the 7% Federal Excise Duty on property transfers. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb also announced tax credits for home loan interest on properties of specific sizes. Experts, including U.S.-based real estate consultant Dr. Anosh Ahmed, have praised these measures as timely and essential for stimulating economic growth, job creation, and industrial development, highlighting their potential to support middle-income families and boost real estate investment.
- In May 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) registered a record 3,609 new companies, bringing the total number of registered companies in the country to over 255,000. Nearly all incorporations (99.9%) were completed digitally, with over Rs2.7 billion in capital raised. Private limited companies constituted 59% of new registrations, followed by single-member companies at 37%. The IT and e-commerce sectors led with 718 new incorporations, followed by trading, services, and construction. The SECP also issued 56 licenses, including to NGOs, capital markets, insurance, and nonbanking finance entities. Additionally, foreign investment was reported in 98 of the newly registered companies.
- In a post-budget press briefing, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced a major tariff reform, eliminating additional customs duties on 4,000 out of 7,000 tariff lines and reducing duties on another 2,700 to support industrial growth and boost exports. This move, part of Pakistan’s broader economic restructuring, aims to lower input costs for exporters, integrate the economy into global supply chains, and transition from import substitution to export-led growth. The minister also introduced fiscal measures for relief to salaried individuals and small businesses, and prioritized support for construction and agriculture through lower transaction costs and improved credit access. Reforms in the digital economy include a new e-commerce framework and mandatory tax registration for small online businesses, alongside the imposition of an 18% GST on solar plant imports to support local manufacturing. The government has generated Rs400 billion in additional revenue this year and aims to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.9% by FY26. Aurangzeb also shared plans for bond repayments and new international market issuances, including a Panda Bond, while stressing the importance of improving Pakistan’s credit rating. The press conference was briefly disrupted by a journalists' boycott over the lack of a traditional technical briefing.
Auto: EV Momentum Meets Market Friction: FY26 Budget Insights - By HMFS Research
Jun 11 2025
HMFS Research
- The FY26 Federal Budget presents a mixed outlook for Pakistan’s auto sector. While policy direction supports electric vehicle (EV) adoption through tax differentiation, purchasing restrictions on non-filers and the withdrawal of GST concessions on entry-level vehicles may weigh on demand. Additionally, phased tariff liberalization offers cost relief on CKD inputs but raises competitive risks from cheaper CBU imports.
- The enforcement of a ban on vehicle booking, purchase, and registration for non-filers is expected to constrain demand in the formal economy, particularly in the >1000cc passenger car segment. Meanwhile, exemptions apply to motorcycles, rickshaws, tractors, and pickups up to 800cc.
- This measure may hinder volume recovery in the >1000cc segment, though exemptions for motorcycles and rickshaws offer limited relief for ATLH and SAZEW given the distinct customer base.
Morning News:Rs1trn set aside for PSDP - By WE Research
Jun 11 2025
- The 2025–26 budget allocates Rs1,000 billion for the federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), marking a 28.5% decline from the previous year’s Rs1,400 billion, with provincial Annual Development Plans totaling Rs2,869 billion. A separate Rs355 billion is set aside for state-owned entities, up from Rs196.8 billion last year. The highest PSDP allocation goes to transport (Rs225 billion), followed by water resources (Rs184 billion), while climate receives a minimal Rs5.26 billion despite Pakistan’s vulnerability. Key dam projects—Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand—receive Rs60, Rs20, and Rs15 billion, respectively. Allocations also include Rs70 billion for merged districts, Rs74.5 billion for special areas (AJK and GB), Rs24.7 billion for health, Rs23 billion for IT and telecom, Rs61 billion for higher education, and smaller amounts for skills training, education endowment, and disease control. The PSDP vision, “Uraan Pakistan,” emphasizes inclusivity and national potential.
- The Finance Bill 2025–26 proposes to withdraw the 3% federal excise duty (FED) on the transfer of residential and commercial properties, effective July 1, 2025, which was initially imposed through the Finance Act 2024 and became subject to litigation. The government had earlier considered withdrawing it via ordinance but did not proceed. Additionally, withholding tax rates under Section 236K on property purchases are proposed to be reduced: 1.5% for properties up to Rs50 million, 2% for Rs50–100 million, and 2.5% above Rs100 million. In contrast, withholding taxes under Section 236C for sellers are being increased to 4.5%, 5%, and 5.5% for the same value brackets. Though no justification is provided for this disparity, it may incentivize buyers to prefer properties from builders and developers over the secondary market.
- In the 2025–26 budget presented by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, modest tax relief has been proposed for the salaried class, though it falls short of expectations. The new tax policy exempts annual incomes below Rs 600,000, with the next slab (Rs 600,000–1.2 million) seeing the tax rate drop from 5% to 1%, providing an 80% tax cut. Those earning between Rs 1.2 million and Rs 3.2 million will see rates reduced slightly, while the top two slabs (incomes above Rs 3.2 million) remain unchanged at 30% and 35%. Despite an average relief of 29%, higher earners benefit more proportionally—with individuals earning over Rs 1 crore getting a 27% cut—while the majority of salaried workers see minimal impact. The salaried class, contributing Rs 430 billion in taxes in the first ten months of FY 2024–25 (over 10% of total tax collection), remains the most taxed segment, especially when compared to retailers and exporters. With taxes deducted at source by employers acting as withholding agents, this group has little room to evade taxes unlike others, reflecting continued fiscal pressure despite marginal relief.
Pakistan Economy: FEDERAL BUDGET FY26, Key Budgetary Measures - By Sherman Research
Jun 11 2025
Sherman Securities
- We view the FY26 budget as Positive for the stock market, given that the announced targets appear realistic and largely aligned with IMF expectations.
- With the budget now behind us, investor attention will shift toward macroeconomic indicators—particularly inflation trends and the external account. In this context, the trajectory of international oil prices will play a key role during FY26.
- We do not foresee any material changes to our corporate earnings estimates, as key heavyweight sectors such as Energy and Banks remain largely insulated from new taxation measures. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 earnings growth projection at 12%.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research
May 22 2025
- Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
- Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Morning News: Key policy rate slashed by 100bps to 11pc - By WE Research
May 6 2025
- The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing a sharp drop in inflation due to lower electricity tariffs and easing food prices, bringing the total rate cut since June 2024 to 11 percentage points. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April, and core inflation also declined, while real GDP grew by 1.7% in Q2-FY25, driven by improved remittances, a current account surplus, and rising business confidence. Despite some weak industrial segments and agricultural output challenges, the MPC maintained its FY25 growth forecast at 2.5– 3.5% and projected further improvement in FY26, though risks remain from global uncertainty, supply -chain issues, and volatile commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise to $14 billion by June 2025, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain on target despite challenges in meeting the primary surplus goal, highlighting the need for sustained reforms in taxation and state-owned enterprises.
- Efforts are underway to project Pakistan’s real GDP growth at around 3% for FY2024–25, despite low investment and savings rates and weak performance in key sectors. Concerns have been raised over the credibility of this target, especially with contractions in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which declined 1.9% in Jul–Feb FY25, and a significant drop in major crop output, including cotton (down 33%) and maize. Although second-quarter growth was boosted—partly by historically high livestock estimates—reaching 3% would require a nearly 5% growth in the third quarter, which seems unlikely given current sectoral trends. Agriculture remains weak due to water shortages and low crop yields, while multilateral institutions project GDP growth between 2–2.6%. Despite this, internal government bodies, including the Ministry of Planning and Finance, appear eager to portray a higher growth trajectory ahead of the upcoming Economic Survey. The final provisional GDP estimate is expected by May 20, 2025, although independent experts argue growth may not exceed 2% based on the current data trajectory.
- In April 2025, Pakistan’s overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by 0.4 points to 56.9, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan and IBA, driven by improvements in both the Industry and Services sectors. The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), reflecting perceptions over the past six months, climbed 0.9 points to 56, while the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) remained stable at 57.8. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also improved by 0.7 points to 53.5, signaling moderate expansion. Businesses’ inflation expectations rose slightly by 0.2 points to 64.2. Notably, the Expected Employment Index increased by 1.3 points to 55.3, with both industry and services sectors showing gains. Additionally, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector edged up by 0.4% to 64.8%, indicating a slight uptick in production activity
Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research
Apr 29 2025
- The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.
- In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.
- In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.
Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research
Apr 15 2025
- Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.
- In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.
- Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.
Morning News: IMF team due next week to discuss taxation proposals for next budget - By WE Research
Apr 11 2025
- A technical team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Pakistan starting April 14, 2025, to engage in discussions with senior officials of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) regarding taxation proposals for the FY2025-26 budget. The talks will focus on expanding the tax base by bringing retailers and other untaxed sectors under the tax net, while the government is also considering reducing tax rates for the salaried class. Both parties are expected to explore the inclusion of high-income pensioners in the tax framework. Meanwhile, the IMF’s governance and anti-corruption diagnostic team will be concluding its visit. Additionally, a high-level Pakistani delegation, headed by Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb, will attend the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., from April 21 to 26, 2025.
- Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has halted a proposal to waive the 18% sales tax on local supplies of commodities, raw materials, and machinery to registered exporters under the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS), due to concerns over potential objections from the IMF. The proposal, originally put forth by a committee led by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, aimed to restore tax exemptions and reintroduce insurance guarantees to address anomalies that favor imports over local procurement—an issue impacting domestic industries like ginning factories. While some officials suggested revisiting the matter with the IMF, the Prime Minister rejected the idea, instead calling for a balanced solution that does not disadvantage local producers. The government is considering imposing the same 18% tax on imports to level the playing field. The PM emphasized boosting exports remains a top priority and urged the committee to incorporate industry feedback and develop consensus-based recommendations. The EFS, launched in 2021, has undergone stricter controls in recent months to curb misuse, including reduced utilization periods and enhanced monitoring.
- Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased by $173 million during the week ending April 4, 2025, reaching $15.75 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This rise includes a $23 million gain in SBP-held reserves, which stood at $10.699 billion, up from $10.676 billion the previous week. Additionally, net reserves held by commercial banks saw a notable increase of $150 million, reaching $5.053 billion compared to $4.903 billion the week before.
Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL): Poised for Continued Growth - Market Weight - By WE Research
Mar 18 2025
- Since Jan’2024, the Pakistan cement sector has witnessed a swift recovery on the back of anticipated interest cut, where the industry stock performance increased by 46%. Among the local peers, FCCL has been the key driver on this rally, delivering an 92% return, with its share price surging from PKR 18.95/sh on January 1, 2024, to PKR 36.4/sh on January 1, 2025. However, despite this strong market performance, cement dispatches in CY24 remained stagnant/low, where local demand reached at 38.2 Mn tons, depicting a decline of 4.5% YoY. However, we expect FY25 to be a strong year for the industry, driven by lower interest rates and enhanced purchasing power across both consumer and industrial sectors, where we anticipated local dispatches to clock in at 38Mn tons 4% YoY increase from FY25.
- We have a Market Weight stance on FCCL, with a DCF-based target price of PKR 64.40 per share for DEC’25 offering 40% upside potential. FCCL is currently valued at ~US$39.17EV/ton compared to 5-year average of ~US$32.65EV/ton. On EV/EBIDTA basis, stock is trading at ~11.07x as compared to 5-year average of ~6x.
- Our liking for the stocks emanate from 1) Healthy gross margins driven by cost efficiency initiatives, 2) Recent capacity expansion to enhance market footprint, 3) Strong cash flow led to higher payouts & 4) Reducing interest rate to increase profitability.
Morning News: Economy seen growing at 3.4pc in FY25 – By WE Research
Jan 13 2025
- Pakistan's economy is showing signs of recovery from the 2022-23 downturn, with a projected 3.4% GDP growth in FY25, according to the United Nations' latest economic survey. The IMF’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, worth $7 billion, aims to address structural challenges, promote economic stability, and foster sustainable growth by focusing on reforms, policy credibility, competitiveness, state-owned enterprises, and climate resilience. Despite these efforts, risks such as geopolitical tensions, debt challenges, social unrest, and climate-related shocks, including extreme weather events, could hinder growth. The South Asian region is expected to see moderate GDP expansion, with inflation decreasing across most countries, including Pakistan, which has reduced key policy rates to support recovery. However, the region remains vulnerable to climate impacts, which have led to increased food prices and income inequality, particularly affecting rural households.
- Pakistan saw a significant increase in workers' remittances, with $3.1 billion inflows in December 2024, reflecting a 29.3% year-on-year growth and a 5.6% month-on-month rise. Cumulatively, remittances reached $17.8 billion in the first half of FY25, up 32.8% from the previous year. Major sources included Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK, and the US. Analysts attribute the surge to efforts that narrowed the gap between black market and interbank exchange rates, a stable rupee, and the Pakistan Stock Exchange's strong performance. With ongoing government measures to regulate the remittance sector, including tighter controls on smuggling and improved documentation, remittance inflows are expected to exceed $35 billion by the end of FY25, a 35% increase from FY24. While improvements in dollar-rupee parity have bolstered this trend, experts caution against policies favoring export lobbies, arguing for broader currency stabilization measures.
- Inflows through Pakistan's Roshan Digital Account (RDA) reached $203 million in December 2024, marking a 9% increase from November's $186 million, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Of the December inflows, $13 million was repatriated, and $113 million was used locally, with a net repatriable liability of $76 million. The total number of RDA accounts grew to 778,713, up by 10,319 from the previous month. Cumulatively, RDA inflows reached $9.342 billion, with $1.7 billion repatriated and $5.911 billion utilized locally. The net outstanding liability was $1.73 billion as of Decemberend, with a significant portion in Naya Pakistan Certificates. Additionally, Roshan Equity Investments saw a 16% increase to $59 million. Launched in 2020, the RDA has become a crucial source of foreign exchange for Pakistan, offering competitive returns on dollar investments.