Economy: MPC to cut the policy rate by 50bps in the forthcoming meeting - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 5 th May, 2025, wherein we expect the committee to cut the key policy rate by 50bps to 11.5%.
  • Our view of a 50bps rate cut by the MPC is predicated on continued trajectory of disinflation coupled with forward looking inflationary expectations, Pakistan’s current external position and economic activity needed to improve tax revenue collection, improved credit rating, uptick in financial inflows from bilateral and multilateral lenders as well as emerging upside risks of escalation in inflation volatility amid a heightened global economic policy uncertainty environment.
  • To note, the headline inflation rate of March 2025 was recorded at a 59 year low of 0.7% YoY in the month of March 2025 in stark contrast to 20.7% YoY during SPLY, indicating continued deepening of disinflation compared to 1.5% YoY observed in February 2025. The March 2025 CPI print further pushed real interest rates (RIR) into the deep positive territory of +1100bps. Similarly, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending 24th April 2025 recorded a historical deflation rate of =3.52% YoY. Additionally, while core inflation remained relatively elevated at 8.98% YoY in March 2025, it was well below the 5 year trailing average of 12.24%, indicating easing in more persistent measures of inflation. Our forecast indicates that despite attrition of offsetting high base year effects in the medium term, RIR should remain positive on a forward looking basis and we believe inflation expectations should remain anchored. To note, with the exception of the previous MPS on 10th March, 2025, interest rate moves when RIR exceeds 5% are skewed towards a 100-250bps cut, indicating that the MPC may deem it adequate to commence the ongoing monetary easing cycle

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week at the PSX, as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Budget. The benchmark KSE-100 index fluctuated between an intraday high of 119,542 points (+389) and a low of 118,665 points (−487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102. Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions.
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): CY24 & 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PABC is the leading manufacturer of beverage cans in Pakistan. The Company is also Pakistan’s first and only manufacturer and exporter of aluminium cans.
  • During CY24, sales revenue increased 17%YoY clocking in at PKR 23Bn. The contribution of the exports to total revenue was around 63% during the year. Export sales increased 53%YoY to PKR 14.4Bn. Gross margin recorded a marginal decrease. Net profit for the year was recorded at PKR 6Bn compared to PKR 5Bn during the SPLY. The net profit margin recorded a marginal increase. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 16.9/sh from PKR 13.9/sh during the SPLY.
  • The Company reported a production of 936Mn cans in CY24, at a capacity utilization of 89%. The production capacity is 1.2Bn cans p.a.
Lalpir Power Limited (LPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • LPL’s Power Purchase Agreement, originally due to expire in Nov’28, was terminated effective Oct 1, 2024, under a Negotiated Settlement Agreement. Receivables up to Sep 30, 2024—including CPP, EPP, and PTI—were cleared by Dec 31, 2024. Delayed payment interest was waived, resulting in significant reversals in the financials. The Company retains ownership of its 350MW oil-fired complex, and no further compensation was provided by the Government. CPPA-G will reimburse the Company for any adverse tax rulings if applicable.
  • Revenue declined 27%YoY to PKR 14.2Bn (CY23: PKR 19.5Bn), reflecting reduced dispatches ahead of PPA expiry. Gross profit fell to PKR 3.55Bn (CY23: PKR 5.6Bn), while PAT sharply dropped to PKR 465Mn from PKR 4.9Bn. This steep decline was primarily driven by non-recurring reversals—including furnace oil inventory written down to net realizable value due to low selling prices and the reversal of interest income due to waived charges under the settlement. EPS declined significantly to PKR 1.22 (CY23: PKR 12.1).
  • LPL reported surplus funds of PKR 9.8Bn as of Dec 31, 2024, ensuring liquidity strength post-PPA. However, Management clarified that it does not plan to distribute excess reserves via dividends in the near term. Instead, the focus is on pursuing high-potential ventures that can deliver superior long-term shareholder value.
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Economy: MPC to cut the policy rate by 50bps in the forthcoming meeting - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 5 th May, 2025, wherein we expect the committee to cut the key policy rate by 50bps to 11.5%.
  • Our view of a 50bps rate cut by the MPC is predicated on continued trajectory of disinflation coupled with forward looking inflationary expectations, Pakistan’s current external position and economic activity needed to improve tax revenue collection, improved credit rating, uptick in financial inflows from bilateral and multilateral lenders as well as emerging upside risks of escalation in inflation volatility amid a heightened global economic policy uncertainty environment.
  • To note, the headline inflation rate of March 2025 was recorded at a 59 year low of 0.7% YoY in the month of March 2025 in stark contrast to 20.7% YoY during SPLY, indicating continued deepening of disinflation compared to 1.5% YoY observed in February 2025. The March 2025 CPI print further pushed real interest rates (RIR) into the deep positive territory of +1100bps. Similarly, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending 24th April 2025 recorded a historical deflation rate of =3.52% YoY. Additionally, while core inflation remained relatively elevated at 8.98% YoY in March 2025, it was well below the 5 year trailing average of 12.24%, indicating easing in more persistent measures of inflation. Our forecast indicates that despite attrition of offsetting high base year effects in the medium term, RIR should remain positive on a forward looking basis and we believe inflation expectations should remain anchored. To note, with the exception of the previous MPS on 10th March, 2025, interest rate moves when RIR exceeds 5% are skewed towards a 100-250bps cut, indicating that the MPC may deem it adequate to commence the ongoing monetary easing cycle
Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates.
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Economy: Further deepening in disinflation to a six decade low level of 0.8% in March 2025 - By Pearl Research

Mar 27 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We project the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)-based inflation rate for March 2025 to decelerate to ↑0.8 YoY, the lowest level observed since December 1965, in sharp contrast to ↑20.68% YoY observed in the corresponding period last year, thereby depicting a ↓71ps deceleration from ↑1.52% YoY observed in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, we project a ↑1% MoM uptick in the CPI, indicating reacceleration as compared to ↓0.86% MoM observed in February 2025 and marginally below the trailing 5-year average MoM inflation rate of ↑1.18%.
  • Notably, we anticipate food inflation to plunge to a multi-decades low to record deflation of ↓4.83% YoY in March 2025 despite a 2.26% MoM acceleration, indicating deepening of deflation as compared to ↓4.22% YoY in February 2025 and a trailing 5-year average rate of ↑18.32% YoY, in part due to elevated base year effects. Notably, we expect sizable reduction in prices of onions (↓16.17% MoM), garlic (↓7.14% MoM), pulse mash (↓4.18% MoM) and pulse gram (↓4.19% MoM) to contribute to deflation in the food index. In contrast, food items that we expect to register escalation in prices include bananas (↑31.18% MoM), tomatoes (↑25.25% MoM), eggs (↑10.25% MoM) and chicken (↑10.16% MoM).
  • Similarly, we project deflation in the housing index at ↓1.8% YoY in March 2025 as compared to ↑0.57% YoY recorded in February 2025, ↑36.6% YoY in SPLY and a trailing 5-year average YoY rate of ↑14.15% owing to reduction in administered electricity prices due to negative monthly FCA. Additionally, we also expect a ↓2% MoM reduction in the transport index given the decline in administered fuel prices. In contrast, we anticipate core inflation to remain elevated in the high single digit territory.
Economy: Headline inflation to plunge to a 9-year low at 2.7% in January 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jan 31 2025



  • We project the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)-based inflation rate for January 2025 to decelerate to 2.7% YoY, the lowest level observed since the November 2015 CPI print, in sharp contrast to 28.34% YoY observed in the corresponding period last year. Our estimates indicate that January 2025 CPI print should depict a 133bps deceleration from 4.07% YoY observed in December 2024.
  • On a month-on-month basis, in contrast, we project a 0.54% MoM increase in the CPI in January 2025, indicating reacceleration compared to 0.06% MoM in December 2024. Nonetheless, this uptick is well below the trailing 5-year average month-on-month inflation rate of 1.17%.
  • Notably, we anticipate food and housing inflation to plunge to multi-year lows to -1.48% and +0.18% YoY in January 2025, in part due to elevated base year effects. Additionally, we expect a 0.31% uptick in the transport index given flattish administered fuel prices. In contrast, we anticipate core inflation to remain elevated in the high single digit territory.