Economy: Apr-2025: KSE100 down 5.5% on geo-political unrest - By JS Research
May 2 2025
JS Global Capital
- US reciprocal tariffs and subsequent cross-border tensions with India triggered a series of setbacks for the KSE-100 index in April, driving it down to 111,000 – a 5.5% decline MoM. Stocks driven by domestic demand and supported by strong earnings/dividend announcements – such as UBL, MLCF, MEBL, LUCK – outperformed the broader market, while those that had weaker earnings or were vulnerable to a deteriorating global trade and commodity price outlook – like PPL, PSO, OGDC, ILP, EFERT – lagged behind. Trading activity improved by 42%/31% MoM in terms of shares/ US$-value traded in Apr-2025, reflecting the Ramadan-affect impacting volumes last month, however the average volumes remained lower than the levels seen during Nov-2024 to Jan-2025. Foreigners remained net sellers this month as well, taking 10MFY25 net outflow to ~US$252mn.
- The US announced reciprocal tariff on its global trading partners aiming at reducing US trade deficit with each of them – China being on top of the list with 145% tariff (raised from 54% earlier), whereas 29% tariff was imposed on imports coming from Pakistan, the same is currently paused for 90 days. While the global / US demand is likely to get weaker, it provides an opportunity for Pakistan Textile exporters to gain from competitive edge over China, Bangladesh, Vietnam. Meanwhile softening of commodity prices mainly oil (Brent down 16% MoM) may also continue to soften inflation figures.
- IMF executive board is expected to discuss disbursement of second tranche of US$1bn under US$7bn EFF facility and first tranche of US$200-300mn under US$1.3bn RSF, in the upcoming meeting scheduled for 9th May 2025. IMF also lowered Pakistan’s CPI forecast to 5% / 7.7% for FY25E/ FY26E, GDP growth rate to 2.6%/ 3% for FY25/ FY26E. IMF also now expects Pakistan current account to remain at -0.1% of GDP vs. -1% expected earlier. News reports also indicate that the IMF may allow further easing of the tax co