Economy: Historically, the Stock Market Recovers After Conflicts End - By AHCML Research

May 9 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • When wars or tensions between India and Pakistan flare up, the stock market, especially Pakistan’s tends to drop sharply due to panic selling and foreign investor withdrawals. However, history shows that once the conflict ends and the risk of full-scale war fades, the market usually bounces back.
  • For example, after the 2001-2002 military standoff, PSX had crashed by 25%, but it recovered once troops withdrew. Similarly, in 2019, after the Balakot airstrikes, the market initially fell 5% but stabilized within weeks as tensions eased.
  • This pattern suggests that while geopolitical crises cause short-term volatility, markets often regain lost ground once stability returns. The recovery speed depends on the economy’s strength, the ongoing final meeting with IMF for USD1.3bn tranche after matching required condition from IMF we expect the market recover speedily. Longterm damage usually happens only if the conflict leads to sanctions or deep economic crises. In most cases, when the guns fall silent, investors return, and stocks climb back up.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week at the PSX, as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Budget. The benchmark KSE-100 index fluctuated between an intraday high of 119,542 points (+389) and a low of 118,665 points (−487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102. Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions.
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): CY24 & 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PABC is the leading manufacturer of beverage cans in Pakistan. The Company is also Pakistan’s first and only manufacturer and exporter of aluminium cans.
  • During CY24, sales revenue increased 17%YoY clocking in at PKR 23Bn. The contribution of the exports to total revenue was around 63% during the year. Export sales increased 53%YoY to PKR 14.4Bn. Gross margin recorded a marginal decrease. Net profit for the year was recorded at PKR 6Bn compared to PKR 5Bn during the SPLY. The net profit margin recorded a marginal increase. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 16.9/sh from PKR 13.9/sh during the SPLY.
  • The Company reported a production of 936Mn cans in CY24, at a capacity utilization of 89%. The production capacity is 1.2Bn cans p.a.
Lalpir Power Limited (LPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • LPL’s Power Purchase Agreement, originally due to expire in Nov’28, was terminated effective Oct 1, 2024, under a Negotiated Settlement Agreement. Receivables up to Sep 30, 2024—including CPP, EPP, and PTI—were cleared by Dec 31, 2024. Delayed payment interest was waived, resulting in significant reversals in the financials. The Company retains ownership of its 350MW oil-fired complex, and no further compensation was provided by the Government. CPPA-G will reimburse the Company for any adverse tax rulings if applicable.
  • Revenue declined 27%YoY to PKR 14.2Bn (CY23: PKR 19.5Bn), reflecting reduced dispatches ahead of PPA expiry. Gross profit fell to PKR 3.55Bn (CY23: PKR 5.6Bn), while PAT sharply dropped to PKR 465Mn from PKR 4.9Bn. This steep decline was primarily driven by non-recurring reversals—including furnace oil inventory written down to net realizable value due to low selling prices and the reversal of interest income due to waived charges under the settlement. EPS declined significantly to PKR 1.22 (CY23: PKR 12.1).
  • LPL reported surplus funds of PKR 9.8Bn as of Dec 31, 2024, ensuring liquidity strength post-PPA. However, Management clarified that it does not plan to distribute excess reserves via dividends in the near term. Instead, the focus is on pursuing high-potential ventures that can deliver superior long-term shareholder value.
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Economy: IMF Backs Pakistan’s Reforms With USD2.4bn Funding Package - By AHCML Research

May 19 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The IMF report on Pakistan highlights the country's economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, noting improvements in fiscal discipline, external stability, and structural reforms. However, challenges persist, including subdued growth, elevated core inflation, and risks from external shocks such as recent US tariff hikes. Key achievements include meeting quantitative performance criteria (QPCs), rebuilding foreign reserves, and advancing tax reforms. The report emphasizes the need for sustained policy tightening, fiscal consolidation, and energy sector reforms to ensure long-term stability. Additionally, the proposed Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) aims to address climate vulnerabilities and promote green growth.
  • Pakistan's economy has shown signs of stabilization but continues to face significant challenges. After recording GDP growth of 2.5% in FY24, economic activity softened in the first half of FY25, with growth slowing to 1.3% in Q1 and 1.7% in Q2. This deceleration primarily reflects lower yields from major Kharif crops and persistently subdued industrial activity.
  • On the inflation front, headline inflation declined sharply to just 0.7% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by tight macroeconomic policies and declining global food and energy prices. However, core inflation remains stubbornly high at around 9%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
Economy: Historically, the Stock Market Recovers After Conflicts End - By AHCML Research

May 9 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • When wars or tensions between India and Pakistan flare up, the stock market, especially Pakistan’s tends to drop sharply due to panic selling and foreign investor withdrawals. However, history shows that once the conflict ends and the risk of full-scale war fades, the market usually bounces back.
  • For example, after the 2001-2002 military standoff, PSX had crashed by 25%, but it recovered once troops withdrew. Similarly, in 2019, after the Balakot airstrikes, the market initially fell 5% but stabilized within weeks as tensions eased.
  • This pattern suggests that while geopolitical crises cause short-term volatility, markets often regain lost ground once stability returns. The recovery speed depends on the economy’s strength, the ongoing final meeting with IMF for USD1.3bn tranche after matching required condition from IMF we expect the market recover speedily. Longterm damage usually happens only if the conflict leads to sanctions or deep economic crises. In most cases, when the guns fall silent, investors return, and stocks climb back up.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 28 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Cherat Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,512 million (EPS: PKR 7.78) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 22% YoY supported by higher retention prices and improved cost efficiencies
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 8,155 million, down 6% YoY, mainly due to decline in local and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 32%, up 2ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy has contributed to this margin expansion.
D.G Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 25 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • D.G Khan Cement company limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 1,762 million (EPS: PKR 4.02) for 3QFY25, reflecting an increase of 49.26% YoY.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 19,147 million, up 34.21% YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 20.10%, down 5.4ppt YoY.
Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 24 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Indus Motor Company is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 5,662 million (EPS: PKR 72.03) for 3QFY25, reflecting 27% YoY increase.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 61,256 million, reflecting a robust 29% YoY and 41.5% QoQ growth. This performance is primarily driven by a significant increase in volumetric sales, which rose by approximately 40% YoY and 42% QoQ
  • Fortuner Sales volume witnessed a substantial rise of 159% YoY and 110% QoQ, highlighting strong consumer demand and improved supply chain efficiency.
Faysal Bank Limited (FABL): 1QCY25 Result Preview - By AHCML Research

Apr 22 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Faysal Bank Limited is expected to report an EPS of Rs. 2.8, accompanied by a Rs. 1.5/share payout as the first interim dividend for CY25. We anticipate a 6% YoY increase in Net Interest Income (NII) for 1QCY25 compared to 1QCY24, driven by a lower cost of deposits amid a declining interest rate environment. However, on a QoQ basis, NII is expected to decline by 4% due to the lower policy rate translating into reduced markup income.
  • On the non-funded side, non-interest income is projected to grow by 36% YoY, supported by higher fee-based income and capital gains. Compared to the previous quarter (4QCY24), non-interest income is expected to rise by 6%.
  • Conversely, non-interest expenses are expected to surge by 50% YoY, in line with FABL’s branch expansion strategy and investment in digital infrastructure.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 3QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Apr 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Maple Leaf Cement is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 2,067 million (EPS: PKR 1.97) for 3QFY25, reflecting an impressive 83% YoY increase.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 16,711 million, up 5%YoY, supported by higher local and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 34.6%, up 6.6ppt YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies. The company's investment in renewable energy—20 MW solar power projects and 37 MW capacity through the Waste Heat Recovery Power Plant (WHRP)—has contributed to this margin expansion.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Strong Upside Potential – Buy - By AHCML Research

Apr 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • We initiate our coverage of Meezan Bank Ltd. (MEBL) with a Dec’25 Target Price (TP) of PKR 335, signifying a potential capital gain of 30.45%. The bank is also offering a healthy dividend yield of 9.76% (an expected dividend payout of PKR 25/share for CY25). The total return (capital gains + dividend) stands at an attractive 40.21%. MEBL is trading at a CY25 P/E ratio of 5.44x and a PBV of 1.62x.
  • Meezan Bank's stellar growth in recent years can be attributed to several factors: 1) Remarkable deposit growth averaging 24% since 2020, driven by rising consumer preferences for Islamic banking; 2) Meezan stands as a major beneficiary of capturing the Islamic banking market share due to its first-mover advantage; 3) The growing consumer interest in Islamic banking and the SBP’s plan to transform Pakistan’s banking system to align with Shariah principles will further propel Meezan’s growth trajectory. Additionally, other highlights include the lowest infection ratio, consumer ease, and improved asset quality with a high coverage ratio.
  • MEBL stands as Pakistan’s premier Islamic bank, delivering consistent growth, profitability, and resilience in an evolving financial landscape. Over the past five years, MEBL has demonstrated exceptional performance, with net interest income soaring from PKR 64.8bn in 2020 to PKR 287bn in 2024, driven by robust deposit growth and an expanding asset base. The bank’s efficiency has improved significantly, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 26.78% in 2024, reflecting strong operational discipline. Net profit surged to PKR 102bn, while asset quality remains stable, supported by a prudent risk management framework.
Economy: Trade Tensions Trigger a Global Sell-Off - By AHCML Research

Apr 7 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Global stock markets tumbled after a surprise move by U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced new tariffs on imports, sparking fresh fears of a trade war. Countries like China responded with their own import duties, intensifying global tensions. Investors are now worried that escalating trade barriers could hurt global growth, profits, and jobs. Stock markets across Asia, Europe, and U.S. futures have all dropped sharply, as fear and uncertainty take the lead over company fundamentals. Markets are now in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for signs of de-escalation from world leaders.
  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has recently faced significant volatility, primarily influenced by escalating global trade tensions and domestic economic factors. The benchmark KSE-100 Index plummeted over 5%, triggering a temporary halt in trading. This sharp decline was largely a reaction to the U.S. government's implementation of new tariffs on imports, which unsettled global markets and prompted widespread investor concern.
  • The imposition of these tariffs has raised fears of a global trade war, adversely affecting investor sentiment worldwide. Pakistan, facing a steep 29% tariff on its exports to the U.S., is particularly vulnerable. In response, the Pakistani government announced plans to send a delegation to Washington to negotiate relief from these tariffs.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.