Morning News: Fragile ceasefire holds, permanent one is in sight - By HMFS Research

May 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • A ceasefire between India and Pakistan was holding on Sunday after both sides blamed the other for initial violations, as US President Donald Trump vowed to help the arch-rivals find a solution on the disputed Kashmir region. The truce that took effect on Saturday followed four days of intense fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours. In the worst fighting in nearly three decades, they fired missiles and drones at each other’s military installations, killing almost 70 people.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board on Friday approved a total of $2.3 billion in funding for Pakistan, comprising the disbursement of a $1 billion tranche under its ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the launch of a new $1.4bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The latest approval brings total disbursements under the $3bn EFF program to $2.1bn. The $1bn tranche will be disbursed immediately, while the RSF financing will be rolled out over the next 28 months to support long-term sustainability and climate resilience efforts.
  • Emerging-market (EM) issuers are variously exposed to direct and indirect impacts from the global trade war, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. Credit pressures may become most evident in EMs where tariff effects combine with aggravating factors or add to preexisting pressures, even if direct US tariff exposures are small. APAC’s high trade openness and exposure to US demand leave it particularly exposed to direct tariff risks, but all regions will be affected, with Fitch expecting global growth to fall below 2% this year.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Dull activity was observed on the last trading day of the week at the PSX, as investors adopted a cautious stance and preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Budget. The benchmark KSE-100 index fluctuated between an intraday high of 119,542 points (+389) and a low of 118,665 points (−487), before closing with a marginal loss of 50 points at 119,102. Trading volumes remained thin throughout the day, with major participation seen in sideboard stocks. Going forward, we expect the market to continue consolidating; hence, investors are advised to wait for dips before taking fresh positions.
Image Pakistan (IMAGE): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 23 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Securities hosted a Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) for Image Pakistan (IMAGE) today, where senior management discussed the recent financial performance and future outlook of the company.
  • Rs193mn capex was incurred in 9MFY25, and management expects an additional Rs250mn for multi-head embroidery machinery and Rs150mn for store expansions over the next 9 months of CY25.
  • IMAGE currently has 14 outlets, with 4 more in progress (3 new and 1 expansion), bringing the total to 17 physical stores alongside a strong global online presence. Upcoming locations include the expanded Zamzama flagship, Bukhari Commercial in Karachi, F-6 MarkazIslamabad, and Giga Mall Rawalpindi.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): CY24 & 1QCY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PABC is the leading manufacturer of beverage cans in Pakistan. The Company is also Pakistan’s first and only manufacturer and exporter of aluminium cans.
  • During CY24, sales revenue increased 17%YoY clocking in at PKR 23Bn. The contribution of the exports to total revenue was around 63% during the year. Export sales increased 53%YoY to PKR 14.4Bn. Gross margin recorded a marginal decrease. Net profit for the year was recorded at PKR 6Bn compared to PKR 5Bn during the SPLY. The net profit margin recorded a marginal increase. As a result, EPS increased to PKR 16.9/sh from PKR 13.9/sh during the SPLY.
  • The Company reported a production of 936Mn cans in CY24, at a capacity utilization of 89%. The production capacity is 1.2Bn cans p.a.
Lalpir Power Limited (LPL): CY24 Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • LPL’s Power Purchase Agreement, originally due to expire in Nov’28, was terminated effective Oct 1, 2024, under a Negotiated Settlement Agreement. Receivables up to Sep 30, 2024—including CPP, EPP, and PTI—were cleared by Dec 31, 2024. Delayed payment interest was waived, resulting in significant reversals in the financials. The Company retains ownership of its 350MW oil-fired complex, and no further compensation was provided by the Government. CPPA-G will reimburse the Company for any adverse tax rulings if applicable.
  • Revenue declined 27%YoY to PKR 14.2Bn (CY23: PKR 19.5Bn), reflecting reduced dispatches ahead of PPA expiry. Gross profit fell to PKR 3.55Bn (CY23: PKR 5.6Bn), while PAT sharply dropped to PKR 465Mn from PKR 4.9Bn. This steep decline was primarily driven by non-recurring reversals—including furnace oil inventory written down to net realizable value due to low selling prices and the reversal of interest income due to waived charges under the settlement. EPS declined significantly to PKR 1.22 (CY23: PKR 12.1).
  • LPL reported surplus funds of PKR 9.8Bn as of Dec 31, 2024, ensuring liquidity strength post-PPA. However, Management clarified that it does not plan to distribute excess reserves via dividends in the near term. Instead, the focus is on pursuing high-potential ventures that can deliver superior long-term shareholder value.
Morning News: IMF not too ‘keen’ on relief steps in budget, links them to FBR revenue - By Vector Research

May 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Signaling its reluctance to grant a major relief to the salaried, property, beverage, and export sectors, the visiting IMF team has linked the FBR’s tax collection target with reduction in expenditures. This is the crux of the ongoing parleys, as the team is going to accomplish its visit on Friday (today). However, the Fund will make an exception for the defence budget, as Islamabad will take an appropriate decision to hike the defence spending in view of the current geopolitical environment.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met with a delegation from the World Bank, led by Managing Director of Operations Anna Bjerde, to discuss the Bank’s development investment and cooperation in Pakistan. The prime minister said the government is taking practical steps to maximize benefits from the World Bank’s investment under the Country Partnership Framework. He said the framework is expected to bring more than $20 billion in development financing to Pakistan.
  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms. According to a press statement issued on Thursday, the minister shared plans to launch a competitive electricity market soon, noting that preparatory work is underway. An Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has been established, and experienced professionals are being appointed. The government will no longer be the sole electricity purchaser.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: WB announces USD 55m in additional funding - By Alpha - Akseer Research

May 23 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Federal Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari met with a delegation led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director Operations of the World Bank, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing power sector reforms.
  • Pakistan is targeting the export of 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the current season, with an anticipated revenue of $125 million, the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA) announced. The export campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (May 25).
  • Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited (HCAR) reported a net profit of Rs2.7 billion (EPS: Rs18.97) for the year ended March 31, 2025, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase and surpassing industry expectations.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note on Thursday, with the index gaining 767 points to hit an intraday high of 120,699. However, the momentum faded as investors opted for profit-taking at higher levels, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 119,062 before closing at 119,153, down 778 points. Going forward, range-bound activity is likely to persist ahead of the Federal Budget announcement, and investors are advised to remain cautious."
Market Wrap: KSE-100 Stays Resilient Amid Budget Uncertainty - By HMFS Research

May 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index exhibited a choppy trajectory today as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the FY26 budget announcement. Ongoing discussions with the IMF and anticipation of new conditionalities kept market participants on edge, curbing aggressive positions. Still, broader optimism anchored in improving macroeconomic fundamentals— such as expected external financing from the UAE and World Bank, and renewed efforts to enhance trade and exports—offered some stability amidst the turbulence. After hitting an intraday high of +389 points, the index ultimately settled at 119,103, recording a marginal decline of 50 points. Market activity reflected a wait-and-see approach, with muted volumes of 99.8mn shares on the KSE-100 and 337.1mn shares traded overall. Leading the board were BBFL (33mn), WTL (19mn), and DOL (16mn). Going forward, the market is likely to remain sensitive to unfolding budgetary disclosures and IMF-related developments. Nonetheless, a constructive macroeconomic backdrop could provide the necessary support to steer equities toward recovery. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely track policy cues, and prioritize fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value potential.
Morning News: Fragile ceasefire holds, permanent one is in sight - By HMFS Research

May 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • A ceasefire between India and Pakistan was holding on Sunday after both sides blamed the other for initial violations, as US President Donald Trump vowed to help the arch-rivals find a solution on the disputed Kashmir region. The truce that took effect on Saturday followed four days of intense fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours. In the worst fighting in nearly three decades, they fired missiles and drones at each other’s military installations, killing almost 70 people.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board on Friday approved a total of $2.3 billion in funding for Pakistan, comprising the disbursement of a $1 billion tranche under its ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the launch of a new $1.4bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The latest approval brings total disbursements under the $3bn EFF program to $2.1bn. The $1bn tranche will be disbursed immediately, while the RSF financing will be rolled out over the next 28 months to support long-term sustainability and climate resilience efforts.
  • Emerging-market (EM) issuers are variously exposed to direct and indirect impacts from the global trade war, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. Credit pressures may become most evident in EMs where tariff effects combine with aggravating factors or add to preexisting pressures, even if direct US tariff exposures are small. APAC’s high trade openness and exposure to US demand leave it particularly exposed to direct tariff risks, but all regions will be affected, with Fitch expecting global growth to fall below 2% this year.
Cement: Debt Relief Ahead - Rate Cut Catalyzes Cement Sector Recovery - By HMFS Research

May 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The cement sector remains a prime beneficiary of monetary easing in Pakistan, given its highly leveraged capital structure and dependence on financing for large-scale projects such as plant expansions and machinery upgrades. With the State Bank of Pakistan slashing the policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, the sector is set to gain meaningfully through lower debt servicing costs.
  • Cement producers have made notable strides toward energy independence by investing in renewable sources, a move that has helped insulate operations from surging fuel and electricity tariffs. Additionally, the uptrend in cement export dispatches bodes well for companies with significant export exposure, signaling robust topline and margin expansion potential in FY25. The recent rate cut further strengthens this positive trajectory, offering dual support through reduced financial expenses and improved operational efficiency.
  • Below is the potential EPS impact of this 1% rate cut on the top cement players, ranked by capacity. Among them, FCCL, BWCL, and LUCK, owing to their leverage profiles, are expected to benefit the most from the rate reduction.
Textile: Rate Cut Ushers Tailwinds for Textile Sector – EPS Gains on the Horizon - By HMFS Research

May 6 2025


HMFS Research


  • The recent 100bps policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan on 5th May 2025, bringing the benchmark rate down to 11%, is poised to provide a meaningful boost to the profitability of textile companies under our coverage. Given the sector’s reliance on debt to finance working capital, capital expenditures, and modernization initiatives, the reduced cost of borrowing is expected to translate into improved earnings across the board.
  • Textile companies typically operate with high working capital requirements, often funded through short-term borrowing. This dependency on credit has rendered them vulnerable to the high-interest rate environment of recent years. However, with the easing monetary stance, finance costs are projected to decline, thereby easing pressure on bottom lines and enabling reinvestment into operational efficiencies.
  • Nishat Mills Limited (NML), while historically reliant on debt—with approximately 72% of its capital structure funded through borrowings—has demonstrated financial prudence in recent periods. In the latest financial disclosures (Mar’25), both long-term debt levels and finance costs have recorded a y/y decline of 8.6% and 25% respectively, reflecting the company’s efforts toward deleveraging, optimizing capital structure and an impact of the previous year’s policy rate cuts. With a substantial portion of borrowings historically allocated to short-term working capital needs, the latest rate cut further supports this trajectory by reducing the cost of residual debt. This positions NML to enhance EPS by PKR ~1.46 through lower finance charges, while also creating headroom to selectively re-leverage for future growth initiatives under a more favourable monetary environment.
Market Wrap: Market Holds Ground Amid Cautious Sentiment - By HMFS Research

Apr 22 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange wavered between confidence and caution today as the KSE-100 index rode early optimism but lost steam by session close. Bolstered by the low SPI inflation print, which rekindled expectations of a policy rate cut in the upcoming MPC meeting, the index surged to an intraday high of 834 points. In parallel, the ongoing result season kept the market buzzing with selective value buying. However, the enthusiasm was moderated by uncertainty around whether corporate earnings would meet or miss expectations. This hesitancy prompted profit-taking towards the tail end of the session, causing the index to close nearly flat at 118,430—up by a marginal 47 points. Nonetheless, the conviction behind the day’s activity remained intact, with robust participation. The KSE-100 saw 354mn shares traded, while the broader market recorded an impressive 740mn shares. Volume leaders included BOP (117mn), POWER (68mn), and PIBTL (59mn). Looking ahead, the market retains room for upward movement given its proximity to all-time highs, but its trajectory will likely hinge on the strength of upcoming earnings and policy clarity. For now, a balanced approach focused on fundamentally robust scrips remains key as investors navigate this phase of cautious optimism.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): Result Review - 1QCY25 - By HMFS Research

Apr 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL) reported a consolidated Profit After Taxation (PAT) of PKR 22.4bn (EPS: PKR 12.26) for 1QCY25, down 11% y/y from PKR 25.1bn (EPS: PKR 13.87) in 1QCY24. The decline in profitability was primarily due to lower net mark-up income, despite strong growth in feebased earnings and foreign exchange income.
  • Profit/return earned stood at PKR 107.6bn, reflecting a 10% y/y decline from PKR 119.2bn in 1QCY24, largely impacted by a lower interest rate environment.
  • Other income recorded at PKR 9.2bn (↑33%) mainly attributable to the 22% rise in Fee and com mission income (PKR 7.2bn) and 234% increase in foreign exchange income (PKR 1.6bn), transaction volumes and currency market movements.