Economy: Temporary shocks, sound fundamentals - By Inisght Research
May 12 2025
Insight Securities
- Domestic fertilizer industry is experiencing a decline in offtake since last few months, with urea sales falling by ~54% YoY in 1QCY25. The drop is largely attributed to weak agronomics caused by government’s decision to abolish support prices for wheat, which has severely dented farmer’s pocket. As a result, industry’s inventory levels have surged, reaching a four-year high. A similar trend was observed during 2016–2017, when urea sales dropped and inventory level reached record highs. At that time, poor farm economics were driven by several factors, including lower crop yields, weak commodity prices, uncertainty around urea pricing, crop damage from flooding, and increased fertilizer production amid improved gas availability. The government intervened to stabilize the situation by reducing urea prices and allowing urea exports to help bring down inventory levels.
- Fertilizer stocks have witnessed a significant decline, driven by falling offtake and emerging concerns over their dividend paying capacity. In this backdrop, we have estimated earnings for fertilizer companies under various offtake scenarios. However, the recent sell-off along with 100bps cut in policy rate and the potential for further easing in the second half of the year, given the significantly high real interest rate, has made fertilizer stocks attractive. Additionally, the strong balance sheets of fertilizer manufacturers position them to pursue new investment opportunities for future growth.