Morning News: IMF tightens conditions for Pakistan to get fresh loans: report - By WE Research

May 20 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has imposed stricter conditions on future loans to Pakistan, urging significant economic reforms and warning of risks stemming from U.S. trade policies and rising tensions with India. As part of its agreement, Pakistan must secure parliamentary approval for its next federal budget, implement agricultural tax reforms, and outline a plan to phase out industrial incentives. The IMF also demands timely adjustments in energy tariffs and legislative action to restructure energy sector debt. Despite avoiding default in 2023, Pakistan continues to face economic uncertainty due to high interest payments and global trade disruptions, with the IMF estimating a need for over $100 billion in external financing by 2029. Recently, the IMF disbursed $1 billion and approved an additional $1.4 billion for climate resilience, though geopolitical tensions with India, particularly over Kashmir, pose continued fiscal and reputational risks.
  • During a visit to the Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI), Chief Commissioner Inland Revenue Zubair Bilal announced potential relief for the salaried class in the upcoming federal budget and reiterated the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) zero-tolerance stance on corruption. He encouraged KATI to submit budget proposals for review and assured regular consultations to address industry concerns, emphasizing that business growth directly benefits the national economy. KATI President Junaid Naqi criticized recurring issues such as arbitrary FBR notices, lack of comprehensive policies, and the burden on compliant taxpayers, especially under IMF-driven tax targets. He strongly opposed FBR’s proposed presence in industrial units, citing constitutional violations. Other KATI leaders echoed concerns over tax system inefficiencies and called for digitization, accountability for evaders, and fair treatment of honest taxpayer.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed the government's commitment to harnessing private sector expertise to drive structural reforms, productivity, and export -led growth during a meeting with a Deloitte delegation. The discussion, a follow-up to earlier talks at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings 2025, focused on collaboration in critical sectors like energy, minerals, health, and climate, particularly through the operationalisation of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The Minister emphasized Pakistan’s priority areas—climate resilience and population management—highlighting strategic support over financing needs, supported by the recently approved $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Deloitte expressed support for Pakistan’s reform agenda, and both sides agreed to maintain close coordination to identify high-impact, outcome-based initiatives.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Morning News: Govt raises Rs1.62 trillion via T-bill, bond auctions - By WE Research

Jul 10 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through recent government securities auctions, primarily from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs), which accounted for Rs1.413 trillion, and Rs208.42 billion from 10-year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL). The MTB auction showed strong investor demand across all tenors, particularly the 12-month bills, signaling a shift toward longer durations amid falling yields. Non-competitive bids totaled Rs379.78 billion, mostly concentrated in the three-month tenor. While the total fell slightly short of the Rs1.7 trillion target, analysts noted increased interest in longer-term securities and a flattening yield curve. Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee slightly weakened to Rs284.47 against the dollar, and local gold prices dropped Rs3,000 per tola to Rs351,500 due to a stronger US dollar and lower international gold rates.
  • From July 7 to 11, 2025, Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance conducted a non-deal investor roadshow (NDR) in Beijing to prepare for its first-ever Panda Bond issuance. Shared by Advisor to the Finance Minister Khurram Shehzad, the meetings involved technical discussions with Chinese investors, underwriters, legal advisors, and rating agencies, focusing on Pakistan’s economic outlook, debt management reforms, and the structure of the upcoming bond. The NDR garnered strong initial interest, reflecting investor confidence in Pakistan’s reform path and signaling its readiness to access China’s onshore capital market. The government aims to finalize the bond launch later this year, backed by credit guarantees from multilateral partners—marking a strategic step toward diversifying funding sources and expanding Pakistan’s presence in international capital markets.
  • The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has approved provisional negative fuel cost adjustments (FCA) for April and May 2025: Rs4.043/kWh for K-Electric (KE) consumers and Rs0.50 per unit for Discos. These adjustments will reflect in July 2025 bills and exclude lifeline, protected, EV charging stations, and pre-paid consumers. Although the Ministry of Energy (MoE) requested to delay the KE FCA decision, citing workload and ongoing efforts to implement uniform FCAs nationwide, Nepra rejected the request due to lack of formal Cabinet approval or policy guidelines. Nepra emphasized that FCA proceedings cannot be indefinitely deferred without legal grounds and noted that the current framework permits monthly fuel cost adjustments. The Authority also reaffirmed its commitment to calculating individual Disco FCAs while moving toward a uniform national FCA regime as mandated by law. Concerns were raised during hearings about the high cost of furnace oil-based generation, and CPPA-G was instructed to manage inter-Disco settlements to reflect actual energy costs.
Morning News: $350m loan agreement signed with ADB to boost women’s financial inclusion - By WE Research

Jun 25 2025



  • The Government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program (Subprogram-II),” aimed at advancing women’s economic empowerment. The agreement, signed by representatives from the Economic Affairs Division, ADB, and the State Bank of Pakistan, underscores Pakistan’s commitment to fostering inclusive growth. Building on reforms from Subprogram I, the initiative focuses on enhancing policy and regulatory frameworks, increasing access to finance for women, supporting women’s entrepreneurship, and promoting equitable workplaces in the financial sector. The financing includes a $300 million policy-based loan and a $50 million Financial Intermediary Loan.
  • In Q4 FY2024-25, Pakistan's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 9.2% from the previous quarter and 24.6% year-on-year, reaching 96.2 points—the highest level since tracking began in 2022. The report, jointly issued by Dun & Bradstreet Pakistan and Gallup Pakistan, highlights improved public sentiment regarding both current financial conditions and future economic prospects. Notably, the Future Confidence Index crossed the 100-point mark for the first time, indicating a shift toward optimism. Key improvements were seen in household income expectations, financial outlook, and savings sentiment. However, concerns about rising unemployment persist, with 61% noting job losses in the past six months. Confidence gains were broad-based, with the most significant increases among individuals under 30. The findings underscore a cautiously optimistic economic outlook, though continued reforms are needed to address labor market challenges.
  • The Power Division has requested a positive adjustment of 10 paisa per unit in electricity tariffs for May 2025 under the monthly Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) mechanism to recover Rs 1.255 billion from consumers of Distribution Companies (Discos). This request, submitted by CPPA-G, will be reviewed in a public hearing by NEPRA on June 29, 2025. In May 2025, total electricity generation rose by 1.2% yearon-year to 12,755 GWh, with a basket price of Rs 7.7739 per unit. Hydel power contributed 37% of total generation, increasing 24% from the previous year. Local coal and imported coal generation rose by 3% and 108% respectively, while RFO-based generation declined by 68%. Nuclear power and gas-based generation both fell, while RLNG contributed 17% at a high cost of Rs 23.73 per unit. Renewable sources like wind and solar contributed modestly. Overall, generation costs and energy mix shifts have prompted the proposed tariff adjustment.
Morning News: UK trade envoy visits Pakistan to advance investment and commercial ties - By WE Research

Jun 24 2025



  • UK Trade Envoy Mohammad Yasin MP embarked on a three-day visit to Karachi and Islamabad to strengthen UK-Pakistan trade ties and promote long-term investment ahead of the upcoming UK Pakistan Trade Dialogue. The visit aligns with the UK's Invest 2035 initiative, focusing on high-growth sectors like clean energy and digital technologies. Yasin emphasized the strong existing commercial relationship and the potential for deeper cooperation. With over 200 UK companies active in Pakistan and the UK being its largest European trading partner, the visit includes meetings with senior government officials and business leaders to explore new collaboration opportunities. The mission is expected to lay the groundwork for enhanced trade, investment, and regulatory reforms, reinforcing Pakistan’s role as a key UK trade partner.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, in his address to the National Assembly on the Finance Bill 2024-25, announced the withdrawal of sales tax and duty exemptions on imported cotton and yarn to support local farmers and revive the textile industry. He outlined Rs36 billion in additional tax measures to offset revenue losses from a reduced solar panel tax and emphasized a “balanced budget” focused on expanding the tax base, digitalization, fiscal responsibility, and easing burdens on salaried individuals. Key initiatives include boosting BISP funding, launching digital loans for small farmers, expanding affordable housing, and enhancing women's financial inclusion. The minister revised several proposals, such as lowering income tax for lower earners and reducing the sales tax on solar components. Amendments were also made to FBR powers and e-commerce taxation, with exemptions provided for nonfilers on smaller-scale transactions. Aurangzeb highlighted regional instability risks and stressed the need for national unity and consensus to ensure sustainable economic recovery.
Morning News: Pakistan gets $20bn in external assistance - By WE Research

Jun 23 2025



  • Pakistan secured nearly $20 billion in foreign loans and grants during the first 11 months of FY2024-25, surpassing its $19.2 billion annual target. This total includes $6.89 billion in fresh inflows—9% lower than the same period last year—and significant rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The rollovers, amounting to $8 billion, and about $2 billion from the IMF, played a major role in reaching the target. Despite delays in the IMF programme affecting commercial lending and bilateral disbursements, multilateral lenders contributed $3.37 billion. Project financing stood at $2.98 billion, while $3.9 billion was used for budgetary support. Additionally, $1.77 billion was raised through Naya Pakistan Certificates, reflecting a boost from overseas Pakistanis, and international bond targets and commercial borrowing remained underachieved due to economic challenges and credit concerns.
  • China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have launched their first trilateral forum, marking a significant shift in regional diplomacy and signaling emerging alignments in South Asia. The inaugural meeting took place on June 19 in Kunming, China, bringing together senior diplomats from all three nations, including Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary who joined virtually. The initiative follows recent improvements in PakistanBangladesh ties and China’s increased regional engagement post-Sheikh Hasina’s exit from power. While the countries emphasized that the forum is not aimed at any third party, it is expected to raise concerns in India. The trilateral discussions focused on wide-ranging cooperation in areas like trade, industry, climate change, education, and maritime affairs. A joint working group was formed to implement agreed proposals, with all sides committing to principles of mutual trust, inclusivity, and development. China framed the forum as part of its vision for a “shared future” and deeper Belt and Road cooperation, positioning the alliance as a platform for peace, prosperity, and modernization in the region.
  • Amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, Pakistan’s Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has directed oil marketing companies to maintain a minimum 20-day fuel reserve and expedite imports to safeguard the country’s fuel supply. Authorities have ordered the immediate import of 140 million litres of petrol and rescheduled the arrival of a vessel to June 26, ahead of its original July 6 date. Pakistan State Oil expects another 140 million litres to arrive by July 1. While current reserves are sufficient, officials warn that any disruption in Gulf shipping routes—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz— could seriously impact Pakistan, which heavily depends on regional oil imports. Freight rates and insurance premiums for oil tankers have already surged due to instability, and operational issues such as GPS outages in the strait have been reported. The government has ruled out reducing the Petroleum Development Levy despite a 16% increase in global oil prices, indicating that domestic prices may rise. Finance and opposition leaders alike have expressed concern over the economic impact, prompting the formation of a high-level committee to monitor the evolving situation.
Morning News: In meeting with Pakistan’s COAS, Trump shows interest in long-term trade partnership - By WE Research

Jun 20 2025



  • During a cordial and extended meeting at the White House, U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, discussed expanding bilateral cooperation across various domains including trade, economic development, AI, energy, and counter-terrorism. Both sides emphasized strategic convergence and mutual interests, with President Trump expressing strong interest in a long-term trade partnership and praising Pakistan’s regional peace efforts. The leaders also addressed tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the need for conflict resolution. The meeting, which included high-level officials from both countries, reflected the warmth of ties and concluded with an invitation for President Trump to visit Pakistan.
  • Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) has signed an agreement with Italian engineering firm STP Studi Tecnologie Progetti for Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and Project Management Consultancy (PMC) as part of its refinery upgradation project, estimated to cost up to US$ 600 million. This major investment marks a significant milestone in ARL’s strategy to enhance value addition and environmentally friendly fuel production. The upgrade includes a Continuous Catalyst Regeneration (CCR) unit and the revamp of the Diesel Hydro Desulfurization Unit, following licensor FEED studies with UOP/Honeywell. The project aims to improve product quality, reduce environmental impact, and align ARL’s operations with international fuel standards.
  • The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has approved a revenue-sharing agreement between Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC) and Jamshoro Joint Venture Limited (JJVL), allowing the JJVL LPG-NGL extraction plant to become operational by July 31. Under the agreement, revenue will be shared at a 66:34 ratio in favor of SSGC, which will also receive a 25% share of LPG based on Ogranotified producer prices, generating an estimated Rs2 billion annually. While both parties have initialed the deal, formal signing will follow the issuance of SIFC meeting minutes. SSGC sought SIFC’s endorsement to ensure transparency and avoid future scrutiny by NAB.
Morning News: Pakistan to unveil Rs100bn EV policy today - By WE Research

Jun 19 2025



  • The federal government is set to unveil its National Electric Vehicle (NEV) Policy 2025-30, marking a significant move toward clean mobility, energy efficiency, and industrial self-reliance in Pakistan. The policy allocates over Rs100 billion in subsidies, introduces a levy on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to fund the transition, and launches with Rs9 billion in FY2025-26 to support over 116,000 ebikes and 3,000 e-rickshaws through a digital platform, with 25% reserved for female riders. Aimed at achieving 30% EV sales by 2030, the policy seeks to cut 4.5 million tons of CO2 emissions, save $1 billion in annual fuel imports, and utilize the country’s electricity surplus. It also promotes domestic EV manufacturing, targeting 90% localization in two- and three-wheelers by 2026 through tariff protections.
  • The Senate Standing Committee on Finance, during its review of the Finance Bill 2025, recommended a zero-rated tax on incomes up to Rs1.2 million and rejected a proposed tax on individuals running small online businesses. While endorsing taxes on high-earning online academies and teachers, the committee opposed levies on exclusive clubs like the Islamabad Club, despite the FBR's argument that such clubs serve only a select elite. The FBR outlined plans to expand digital taxation to a wide range of online services, including streaming platforms, e-learning, telemedicine, and cloud services, but faced resistance on taxing small-scale digital entrepreneurs. Additionally, the committee debated restrictions on property purchases by tax non-filers, with a proposal to raise the allowable purchase limit from 130% to 500% of declared income. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed the government's intent to broaden the tax base by bringing non-filers into the net.
  • The government has introduced a bold National Tariff Policy aimed at reducing average import duties by 52% over five years to boost exports, reduce the trade deficit, and promote industrial modernization. Relying heavily on the World Bank's GTAP model, the policy projects exports will grow faster than imports, with a potential 7–9% revenue gain despite an estimated Rs500 billion static revenue loss. However, opposition lawmakers raised concerns about the policy's assumptions, lack of localized analysis, and potential impacts on inflation, reserves, and struggling domestic industries. Immediate tariff reductions have been proposed in the FY25 budget, including elimination of additional duties and lowering customs duties on thousands of tariff lines. While officials claim the reforms will drive export-led growth, enhance technology adoption, and increase employment, critics warn of economic disruption, particularly for inefficient industries, and called for greater transparency and scrutiny of the underlying models. A monitoring committee led by the finance minister will oversee implementation, with a new auto policy and further tariff rationalizations set to begin in July 2026
Morning News: July-May C/A posts $1.8bn surplus - By WE Research

Jun 18 2025



  • Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of $1.8 billion during the first 11 months of FY25, a significant improvement from a $1.57 billion deficit in the same period last year, largely due to a 29% year-on -year surge in workers’ remittances totaling $34.9 billion. Despite a widening trade deficit—caused by rising imports and declining exports—robust remittance inflows helped stabilize the external account. In May 2025, the country posted a $103 million deficit, narrowing 56% from the same month last year, as imports rose to $5.48 billion while exports dipped to $2.4 billion. The State Bank of Pakistan expects a continued surplus for FY25 but warns of a potential moderate deficit in FY26 due to strong import demand and global uncertainties. SBP projects foreign exchange reserves to reach $14 billion by June 2025 but highlights external risks such as geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility, and possible financial inflow shortfalls.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan's Large-Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) index rose by 2.29% year-on-year to 108.37, though it declined 3.2% compared to March. Over the first 10 months of FY25, LSMI contracted by 1.52% year-on-year. Growth was led by industries such as automobiles (42.16%), cotton yarn (8.40%), garments (6.01%), and petroleum products (5.01%), while sectors like sugar (-14.55%), iron and steel (-10.11%), and cement (-5.62%) saw notable declines. Positive contributions came from tobacco, textiles, garments, and automobiles, whereas food, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and machinery showed negative trends. LSMI, which makes up about 69% of manufacturing and 8% of GDP, reflects broader industrial health. Although some recovery was seen in the second half of FY24, challenges like weak global demand, currency devaluation, and fiscal constraints continue to weigh on overall industrial performance
Morning News: Dar says steps under way to enhance financial ties with Turkiye - By WE Research

Jun 16 2025



  • Pakistan is working to strengthen its economic partnership with Turkiye by enhancing cooperation in financial and logistics services, including plans to allow Turkish banks to operate in Pakistan and convening the 6th session of the Pakistan-Turkiye Joint Ministerial Commission. Turkiye has shown interest in investing in Pakistan’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs), prompting the development of a tailored investment package. Both nations aim to boost bilateral trade to $5 billion by 2025, up from the current $1.02 billion, with opportunities identified in Pakistan’s growing IT sector and healthcare projects like the Jinnah Medical Complex. Meanwhile, in the energy sector, the government has renegotiated contracts with several Independent Power Producers (IPPs), saving Rs3.612 trillion and reducing capacity costs. The circular debt remains a major challenge, amounting to Rs2,396 billion as of March 2025, with a Rs1.2 trillion refinancing package underway—funded by a debt service surcharge on electricity consumers—to stabilize the sector under the Circular Debt Management Plan.
  • The Reko Diq Copper Project is emerging as a transformative force for Pakistan’s economy, with expectations of contributing nearly 1% to GDP annually and attracting $2.5 billion in private sector investment. Backed by a $700 million concessional financing package from the IFC and the World Bank— marking IFC’s first mining investment in Pakistan—the project signals renewed global confidence in the country's economic potential. Spearheaded by Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC), and owned jointly by Barrick Gold Corporation (50%) and Pakistani stakeholders (50%), the mine holds one of the world’s largest untapped copper reserves, with a 40-year life span and anticipated annual output of 200,000– 250,000 tons. It promises up to $2 billion annually in gross value added, full foreign exchange revenue, and significant job creation—up to 10,000 during construction and 3,000 during operations. Alongside strict environmental and social standards, the project includes investments in local infrastructure, community development, and gender inclusion. However, logistical challenges remain, particularly for Pakistan Railways, which must upgrade transport links to ports. The project also highlights a historical failure in governance, having been delayed for decades due to poor decision-making and legal missteps.
Morning News: Housing scheme with SBP’s help: Rs5bn set aside for mark-up subsidy - By WE Research

Jun 12 2025



  • In the FY26 budget, the federal government has allocated Rs 5 billion for a mark-up subsidy under a new low-cost housing scheme, launched in partnership with the State Bank of Pakistan, along with Rs 1 billion for the Naya Pakistan Housing Authority, to address the country’s housing shortage and revitalize the construction sector. This initiative follows the suspension of the "Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar" scheme in 2022 and includes several tax incentives, such as reduced withholding tax on property purchases and the abolition of the 7% Federal Excise Duty on property transfers. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb also announced tax credits for home loan interest on properties of specific sizes. Experts, including U.S.-based real estate consultant Dr. Anosh Ahmed, have praised these measures as timely and essential for stimulating economic growth, job creation, and industrial development, highlighting their potential to support middle-income families and boost real estate investment.
  • In May 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) registered a record 3,609 new companies, bringing the total number of registered companies in the country to over 255,000. Nearly all incorporations (99.9%) were completed digitally, with over Rs2.7 billion in capital raised. Private limited companies constituted 59% of new registrations, followed by single-member companies at 37%. The IT and e-commerce sectors led with 718 new incorporations, followed by trading, services, and construction. The SECP also issued 56 licenses, including to NGOs, capital markets, insurance, and nonbanking finance entities. Additionally, foreign investment was reported in 98 of the newly registered companies.
  • In a post-budget press briefing, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced a major tariff reform, eliminating additional customs duties on 4,000 out of 7,000 tariff lines and reducing duties on another 2,700 to support industrial growth and boost exports. This move, part of Pakistan’s broader economic restructuring, aims to lower input costs for exporters, integrate the economy into global supply chains, and transition from import substitution to export-led growth. The minister also introduced fiscal measures for relief to salaried individuals and small businesses, and prioritized support for construction and agriculture through lower transaction costs and improved credit access. Reforms in the digital economy include a new e-commerce framework and mandatory tax registration for small online businesses, alongside the imposition of an 18% GST on solar plant imports to support local manufacturing. The government has generated Rs400 billion in additional revenue this year and aims to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.9% by FY26. Aurangzeb also shared plans for bond repayments and new international market issuances, including a Panda Bond, while stressing the importance of improving Pakistan’s credit rating. The press conference was briefly disrupted by a journalists' boycott over the lack of a traditional technical briefing.
Morning News:Rs1trn set aside for PSDP - By WE Research

Jun 11 2025



  • The 2025–26 budget allocates Rs1,000 billion for the federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), marking a 28.5% decline from the previous year’s Rs1,400 billion, with provincial Annual Development Plans totaling Rs2,869 billion. A separate Rs355 billion is set aside for state-owned entities, up from Rs196.8 billion last year. The highest PSDP allocation goes to transport (Rs225 billion), followed by water resources (Rs184 billion), while climate receives a minimal Rs5.26 billion despite Pakistan’s vulnerability. Key dam projects—Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand—receive Rs60, Rs20, and Rs15 billion, respectively. Allocations also include Rs70 billion for merged districts, Rs74.5 billion for special areas (AJK and GB), Rs24.7 billion for health, Rs23 billion for IT and telecom, Rs61 billion for higher education, and smaller amounts for skills training, education endowment, and disease control. The PSDP vision, “Uraan Pakistan,” emphasizes inclusivity and national potential.
  • The Finance Bill 2025–26 proposes to withdraw the 3% federal excise duty (FED) on the transfer of residential and commercial properties, effective July 1, 2025, which was initially imposed through the Finance Act 2024 and became subject to litigation. The government had earlier considered withdrawing it via ordinance but did not proceed. Additionally, withholding tax rates under Section 236K on property purchases are proposed to be reduced: 1.5% for properties up to Rs50 million, 2% for Rs50–100 million, and 2.5% above Rs100 million. In contrast, withholding taxes under Section 236C for sellers are being increased to 4.5%, 5%, and 5.5% for the same value brackets. Though no justification is provided for this disparity, it may incentivize buyers to prefer properties from builders and developers over the secondary market.
  • In the 2025–26 budget presented by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, modest tax relief has been proposed for the salaried class, though it falls short of expectations. The new tax policy exempts annual incomes below Rs 600,000, with the next slab (Rs 600,000–1.2 million) seeing the tax rate drop from 5% to 1%, providing an 80% tax cut. Those earning between Rs 1.2 million and Rs 3.2 million will see rates reduced slightly, while the top two slabs (incomes above Rs 3.2 million) remain unchanged at 30% and 35%. Despite an average relief of 29%, higher earners benefit more proportionally—with individuals earning over Rs 1 crore getting a 27% cut—while the majority of salaried workers see minimal impact. The salaried class, contributing Rs 430 billion in taxes in the first ten months of FY 2024–25 (over 10% of total tax collection), remains the most taxed segment, especially when compared to retailers and exporters. With taxes deducted at source by employers acting as withholding agents, this group has little room to evade taxes unlike others, reflecting continued fiscal pressure despite marginal relief.