Morning News: Trade talks; Pakistani officials coming next week: US resident - By Vector Research

Jun 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday representatives from Pakistan are coming to the United States next week as the South Asian country seeks to make a deal on tariffs. Pakistan faces a potential 29 percent tariff on its exports to the United States due to a $3 billion trade surplus with the world’s biggest economy, under tariffs announced by Washington last month on countries around the world.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sought an explanation from the government for not taking it into confidence while setting aside 2,000 megawatts of electricity for Bitcoin mining and AI data centres. Sources told that IMF officials will take up the issue with the government during a virtual interaction. They stated that the IMF has asked as to how such allocation could be made without deciding the legal status of cryptocurrency.
  • The IMF and Pakistan are heading towards evolving consensus on proposed reduction in tax rates for the salaried class in the budget for 2025-26, it has been learnt. However, it will be a challenge for the budget makers to achieve Rs14.2 trillion target in the next budget, as the basis for next fiscal year’s target has seen a widening tax shortfall in meeting downward-revised tax collection target of Rs12.33 trillion.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1,325 points to reach an intraday high of 133,902, as investor sentiment turned bullish on the back of strong macroeconomic signals. Record-high remittances of $38.3 billion and robust demand in recent government debt auctions drove renewed interest in the banking sector. This marks a key inflection point for the market. With improving fundamentals and fiscal stability, the index appears poised to consolidate above the 130,000 mark. Continued foreign inflows and structural reforms could sustain this momentum in the quarters ahead
Automobile Assembler: Pakistan Car sales in Jun 2025 up 43% YoY to 21,773 units, ~ 3 year high - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 21,773 units in Jun 2025, reflecting a 64% YoY and 47% MoM rise.
  • MoM rise was mainly led by a 39-month high Alto sales due to pre-buying as GST was set to increase effective from Jul 01, 2025 from 12.5% to 18.0%.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment
Oil and Gas Exploration: Improving liquidity in E&P sector to set stage for recovery - By AKD Research

Jul 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • As per released figures from PPIS for Jun’25, oil/gas production for the year amounted to 62.4k bpd and 2,882mcfd, reflecting a decline of 12%/8%YoY.
  • We expect rebound in domestic hydrocarbons as excess RLNG issue is to be resolved through i) renegotiation of RLNG contract in 2026, ii) deferral of cargoes, and iii) increase in demand.
  • Industry participants have struck 21 discoveries during FY25, up 40%/91% compared to 15/11 discoveries during FY24/23, culminating to incremental production of 2.9k bpd of oil and 253mmcfd of gas as per initial flow rates.
Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 10, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and surged to an intraday high of 133,902.34 points before closing at a record 133,782.34, gaining 1,205.36 points or 0.91%. Investor sentiment remained buoyant amid strong economic indicators and corporate developments. Record remittances of USD 38.3bn in FY25 (up 26.6% YoY), progress on the Roosevelt Hotel’s USD 1.0bn valuation in the proposed redevelopment plan, World Bank’s likely support for Reko Diq, a 10% rise in US exports, and a USD 1 billion syndicated loan by Dubai Islamic Bank all boosted investors’ confidence. Top contributors to the index included MEBL, MCB, UBL, BAHL, and FFC, which collectively added 570.42 points. BOP led the volumes with 155.38 million shares, while total market turnover reached 941.72 million shares.
Market Wrap: PSX Rebounds Strongly amid Strong Economic Indicators - By HMFS Research

Jul 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE 100 index resumed its upward trajectory today, reaching an intraday high of 133,902 after a slight correction in the previous session driven by profit-taking. The benchmark index closed at the 133,782 level, recording a gain of 1,205 points. The positive sentiment was primarily driven by a remarkable 26.6% surge in cumulative remittances in FY25, which reached a record high of USD 38.3bn. Consequently, buying was observed across major sectors including banking and cement. Investor confidence also improved ahead of corporate results season, furthermore, a 10% y/y increase in exports to the US, which reached USD 5.8bn in FY25, also aided momentum. Total traded volumes remained strong, with the KSE-100 Index posting 326mn shares and the All-Share Index recording 940mn shares. The most actively traded scrips today were BOP (155mn), KOSM (55mn), and HASCOL (33mn). Going forward, the market’s upward trend is expected to continue. However, since the Trump administration as of now has made no announcements over its tariff position on Pakistan, the bourse could swing in the opposite direction should the US decide to impose or reinstate trade barriers. Such a move could dampen investor sentiment, thereby stalling the market's momentum. Amidst this backdrop, investors are advised to remain cautious amid the recent gains in market indices, focusing on fundamentally strong sectors and companies with stable earnings and long-term potential.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Nishat Mills Limited (NML): BUY Maintained Earnings revised due to lower margins; SOTP value higher - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • We have revised down our earnings estimates for Nishat Mills (NML) by average 33% for FY25 and FY26 to Rs18.49 and Rs19.11 on the back of lower-than-expected gross margins posted by company in 9MFY25.
  • We have now assumed gross margins of average 11.1% for FY25-FY27 in our forecast compared to 9MFY25 gross margins of 11.3%. While gross margins in last 10 years i.e. FY15- FY24 have averaged at 12.4%.
  • Despite decline in earnings, we maintain our BUY stance on the company with Jun 2026 target price of Rs225, suggesting total return of 60% including dividend yield of 2%.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 7% YoY in 2Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Jul 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings growth of 7% YoY in 2Q2025, driven by higher Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income
  • Despite the decline in the average policy rate from 21.5% in 2Q2024 to 11.3% in 2Q2025, Net Interest Income (NII) of banks in our universe is expected to increase by 12% YoY to Rs303bn, driven by (1) volumetric growth particularly in current accounts and (2) higher investment yields on old portfolio.
  • Non-interest income of Topline Universe is also expected to post a 14% YoY growth, reaching Rs84bn in 2Q2025, mainly driven by an increase in fee and commission income and higher gain on sale of securities.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 may undergo corrective trend - By JS Research

Jul 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index failed to sustain its intraday high of 133,566 and slid to close at 132,577, down 826 points DoD. Trading volume stood at 906mn shares, compared to 1,207mn shares in the previous session. The index is likely to test support at 132,326 (yesterday’s low), where a break below this level could trigger a corrective trend, with downside targets at 129,878 and 127,205. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 133,560-134,200 range. We recommend investors remain cautious at higher levels and consider accumulating on dips. The support and resistance levels are placed at 132,080 and 133,320, respectively.
Morning News: Remittances from workers at a record high - By IIS Research

Jul 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • In a historic economic milestone, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever home remittance inflows, exceeding $38 billion during the last fiscal year FY25. This unprecedented surge is credited to robust policy measures and sustained efforts by the federal government and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to channelise remittances through formal avenues.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) mobilised approximately Rs1.62 trillion through its latest auctions of government securities, of which a substantial proportion, Rs1.413 trillion, was raised from Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Rs208.42 billion from 10- year Pakistan Investment Bonds Floating Rate (PFL).
  • Political uncertainties, security issues, and external shocks continue to threaten Pakistan’s moderate economic recovery, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Structural and institutional factors, as well as issues such as cumbersome land acquisition procedures, procurement delays, lack of counterpart funds, and currency and price fluctuations, affect project readiness, implementation, and outcomes,” said the bank in its member fact sheet.
Morning News: Jul 1, 2024 to Jun 27, 2025; Borrowing for budgetary support dives 30pc: SBP - By Vector Research

Jul 9 2025


Vector Securities


  • In a significant sign of improved fiscal management, the federal government’s borrowing for budgetary support dropped sharply by 30 percent in the last fiscal year (FY25), driven by enhanced fiscal discipline and tighter expenditure controls.
  • Despite numerous reforms, Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains below regional averages, hindered by the limited reach of its tax system and the widespread prevalence of informal economic activity, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
  • Pakistan’s exports of services rose by 8.58pc to $7.65bn during the first 11 months of FY25, up from $7.04bn in the same period last year, largely driven by strong performance in telecommunication, computer, and information services. According to data compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), services exports have shown consistent growth since February 2024, particularly in the information technology and other business segments. However, a 6.5pc decline was recorded in August 2024.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Forex reserves climb to $18bn as of June 27 - By Vector Research

Jul 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.694 billion to $18.09 billion in the week ending June 27, the central bank said on Thursday, indicating a significant improvement in the country’s current account balance and the realisation of planned inflows. The forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion to $12.73 billion in the reporting week due to receipt of the multilateral and commercial loans, the SBP said in the statement.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb advanced strategic partnerships during a series of high-level bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), held this week in Seville. Representing Pakistan at the UN-backed conference that ran from June 30 to July 3, Aurangzeb held discussions with counterparts and institutional leaders to bolster cooperation in trade, climate resilience, digital transformation and development finance.
  • Pakistan has adopted an 'open handed policy' to award multibillion-dollar mining contracts, by providing equal opportunities to global competitors including the United States (US), China and Russia. China and Russia have long been arch-rivals of the US. At present, Pakistan is simultaneously engaging with all three countries.
Morning News: June CPI inflation clocks in at 3.2pc YoY - By Vector Research

Jul 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Consumer Price Index-based inflation clocked in at 3.2 percent on year-on-year basis in June 2025 as compared to 3.5 percent of the previous month and 12.6 percent in June 2024, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.2per cent in June 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.2per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5per cent in June 2024.
  • According to the PBS data, imports grew 6.57pc to $58.38bn in July-June FY25 from $54.78bn over the last year. Imports surged to $4.86bn in June from $4.96bn last year, a decline of 1.97pc. Month-on-month, imports decreased 7.08pc. The trade deficit in July-June FY25 increased by 9pc to $26.27bn from $24.11bn over the last year. In June, the deficit decelerated by 3.45pc to $2.32bn from $2.41bn last year. The trade gap contracted to $24.08bn in FY24 from $27.47bn in the preceding year.
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial Tuesday said that to achieve a national tax-to-GDP ratio of 18 percent by 2027–28, the provinces would be required to contribute three percent (currently 0.8 percent), amounting to Rs5.265 trillion annually (currently Rs961 billion), and the federation 15 percent (currently 11.3 percent, including the petroleum development levy (PDL)).
Morning News: Sovereign default risk; Pakistan most improved economy: Bloomberg - By Vector Research

Jun 30 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan stands out globally as the most improved economy in terms of reduction in sovereign default risk, as measured by CDS-implied probability. As per the latest data posted by Bloomberg Intelligence, Pakistan leads the world in sovereign risk improvement and tops global EM rankings. Pakistan topped Global EM Rankings in Default Risk Reduction, as the country has recorded the largest drop in sovereign default risk globally over the last 12 months.
  • In a timely supportive move, China has extended rollover and refinancing of its $3.4 billion commercial loans, facilitating Islamabad to meet the IMF condition of keeping the foreign reserves at over $14 billion at the end of the current fiscal year on June 30. China has rolled over $2.1 billion, which has been lying in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the last three years, and also refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid back two months ago. Another $1 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks and $500 million from multilateral financing has also been received, an official confided.
  • Flood project; Govtseeks $31m financing boost from WB The government of Pakistan has requested the World Bank for increasing the financing envelope by $31 million as well as restructuring of Integrated Flood Resilience and Adaptation Project.
Morning News: IMF may object to cap relaxation for transactions by ‘ineligible persons’ in revised finance bill - By Vector Research

Jun 25 2025


Vector Securities


  • The IMF may raise objections to the revised Finance Bill 2025-26 which proposes relaxations for increasing thresholds to ban “ineligible persons” from buying property and vehicles.
  • The government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program (Subprogram-II)”.
  • Pakistan government has requested the World Bank (WB) for restructuring of the Higher Education Development in Pakistan (HEDP) project worth $393.73 million for the fourth time to allow for completion of critical information technology (IT) and ITrelated activities at the universities whose impact will be seen beyond the project period.
Morning News: Pakistan seeking to get two loans of $3.3bn from Chinese banks - By Vector Research

Jun 24 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan is aiming to secure $3.3 billion in the form of two foreign loans — one a syndicated loan and the other a refinancing of commercial loans — from Chinese banks within the next few days. It is expected that the foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will surpass the $14 billion mark if this deal materialises within the outgoing financial year, which ends on June 30.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday unveiled additional budget proposals in the National Assembly, introducing new taxation measures and announcing economic initiatives aimed at broadening the tax base and promoting compliance. Aurangzeb proposed an increase in the tax rate on income derived from the debt portion of mutual funds issued to companies, raising it from 25 percent to 29 percent.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday formally unveiled a Rs36 billion mini budget in the National Assembly and announced to exclude almost the entire population from disclosing source of income before buying a big home, a car or running a bank account.
Morning News: New taxation measures announced - By Vector Research

Jun 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Chairman Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Rashid Mahmood Langrial Sunday announced new taxation measures of Rs 36 billion to narrow down financial gap on account of reduction in sales tax from 18 percent to 10 percent on solar panels and proposed increase in salary for government employees. FBR Chairman highlighted that the measures have been proposed to fill the financial gap for 2025-26. National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance approved following three new taxation measures: (i); Federal Excise Duty of 10 percent on Day old Chicks (DOC) of poultry sector. (ii); Rate of tax increased from 25 percent to 29 percent on dividend received by a company from mutual fund deriving income from profit on debt. (iii); Withholding tax has been increased from 15 to 20 percent on profit on government securities paid to any person (institutional investors) other than an individual.
  • Pakistan secured nearly $20bn in foreign loans and grants during the first 11 months (JulyMay) of 2024-25, surpassing the annual target of $19.2bn set for the fiscal year ending June 30. Almost half of this amount comprised legacy rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while fresh loans and grant inflows totalled $6.89bn — about 9pc lower than the same period last fiscal year.
  • The World Bank said Thursday it is worried that some countries are less and less transparent about their public debt and use complex borrowing tools, making it harder to measure how much they owe. To remedy this the bank called for a fundamental change in the way debtor and creditor countries report and disclose debt. The worries concern in particular lowincome countries that make increasing use of borrowing arrangements the bank considers opaque. These include private placements — a kind of funding round done not publicly but privately, central bank swaps, and collateralized transactions, the bank said in a report on debt transparency.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by $46m to $11.72bn - By Vector Research

Jun 20 2025


Vector Securities


  • The country’s total liquid foreign reserves rose by $130 million to $17.005 billion. The reserves of commercial banks increased by $83 million to $5.283 billion. The SBP’s reserves continued to increase due to a current account surplus. Inflows from the International Monetary Fund, rollovers from friendly nations, and the SBP’s dollar buying from the market also played a crucial role in bolstering forex reserves.
  • Federal Minister for Energy Ali Pervaiz Malik is leading Pakistan's delegation to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2025 from June 18–21, 2025. According to an official statement issued Thursday, Malik held key meetings on the sidelines of the forum, including one with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Tsivilev, who also chairs the Pakistan Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC). Both sides discussed avenues for cooperation in energy, connectivity, trade, investment, banking, insurance, mining, and people-to-people exchanges.
  • The government has flagged a series of critical risks to next year’s budget and medium-term outlook, including slower than targeted GDP growth, inflation shocks, exchange rate volatility, lower revenue buoyancy, debt servicing costs, poor performance of state-owned entities (SOEs) and unexpected climatic and other natural disasters.
Morning News: Pakistan returns to commercial debt market, clinches $1bn loan facility - By Vector Research

Jun 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In the aftermath of the IMF program, Pakistan has resumed commercial financing from international banks and signed a syndicated loan of $1 billion for five years. Islamabad is also making arrangements for securing refinancing of a $1.3 billion loan from Chinese banks, and it is expected that a total of $2.3 billion will be obtained by June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are expected to go up in the coming weeks with the help of borrowed dollar inflows. The foreign exchange reserves may go close to $14 billion mark against $11.6 billion standing on June 6, 2025. The two separate commercial loan facility will help Pakistan to increase its foreign exchange reserves.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday said the government successfully convinced the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to exempt Pakistan’s agriculture sector from taxation, despite persistent demands from the global lender.
  • Financial inclusion in Pakistan has seen a remarkable fourfold increase over the past decade, rising from just 8.0 per cent in 2013 to 35 per cent in 2024, according to the newly released Karandaaz Financial Inclusion Survey (K-FIS) 2024. The survey, launched by Karandaaz Pakistan, provides vital demand-side data and marks 10 years of tracking financial behaviours across the country.