Morning News: Pakistan secures over $1.5 billion for climate action amid rising environmental pressures - By Vector Research

Jun 10 2025


Vector Securities


  • Amid intensifying climate risks, Pakistan has mobilized over $1.5 billion in climate finance to combat environmental degradation and build resilience, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25. The funding includes $1.4 billion under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and $82 million from the Green Climate Fund, alongside the launch of a Rs30 billion Green Sukuk and the National Climate Finance Strategy.
  • The federal budget 2025-26 will be unveiled by Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday (today) in parliament. The budget size has been envisaged at Rs17.6 trillion against Rs18.78 trillion for the last fiscal year. The FBR’s tax collection target has been envisaged at Rs14.02 trillion for the next budget against revised estimates of Rs12.33 trillion for the outgoing fiscal year. However, it will be really hard for the FBR to display the revised target of Rs12.332 trillion on June 30, 2025.
  • The federal government is preparing for a challenging fiscal year ahead, with a proposed budget deficit of Rs 6.2 trillion, or 4.8% of GDP, for the upcoming fiscal year 2025-26. The total size of the budget is expected to be around Rs 17.6 trillion, which is 7.3% lower than this year’s original budget due to reduced allocations for interest payments.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 16, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 122,903, but failed to sustain momentum. It eventually closed at 122,225, as profit-taking emerged later in the session. On the economic front, the State Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%, aligning with expectations. Trading activity was dominated by small-cap stocks, reflecting short-term speculative interest. Market volume stood at 1,224mn shares, with top activity in WTL, PASL, FCSC, KOSM and MDTL. We advise investors to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive exposure for now. Risk management remains key amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro developments.
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept policy rate unchanged at 11%, inline with market expectations. The committee noted that inflation recorded an uptick to clock in at ~3.5% in May’25, as expected and is likely to inch up in coming months and stabilize in target range during FY26. The impact of policy rate cut is kicking in as reflected in improved economic activity. The committee highlighted that trade deficit and shortfalls in planned inflows posses risk to external account. The MPC further elaborated that some of the actions announced in budget might have negative impact on trade balance.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes provisional GDP growth of 2.7% for FY25 and ambitious growth target of 4.2% for FY26, successful disbursement of US$1bn from IMF after completion of first review of EFF program, revised estimate of primary deficit at 2.2% of GDP and some decline in agriculture output compared to initial estimates.
  • Overall, MPC believes the current real policy rate is sufficiently positive to keep inflation within the target range of 5%–7%. However, timely receipt of planned inflows, achieving targeted fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms are crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Moreover, fluid geopolitical situation and its impact on oil prices will remain a key variable for Pakistan.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-political tensions to weigh on the economy - By Taurus Reseach

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Escalation reaches new highs as Iran and Israel continue to trade blows at each other. Earlier, Israel had conducted pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure along with killing the country’s top military leaders and nuclear scientists. Since then Iran has conducted multiple rounds of retaliatory missile strikes inside Israel. The latter have been reciprocated by the bombing of more targets in Iran by the Israeli air force.
  • The situation remains fluid as neither side seems to be willing to exercise restraint. Iran has also called-off negotiations with the US on its nuclear program. Further, Iran has also alleged the role of the US and its allies in the region in backing the Israeli attacks, invoking the possibility of striking US and its allies’ air bases and embassies in the region in case of further escalation. The latter may broaden the conflict, adversely affecting the world economy.
Economy: Jun’25 Monetary Policy Review - By Taurus Research

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting today kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, in line with expectations. The MPC highlighted the marginal decline in core inflation in May’25, with expectations of NCPI trending upwards going forward – albeit remaining within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%. Wherein, recent budgetary measures are likely to have limited impact on inflation, although upside risks to this outlook remain very high.
  • Economic growth is picking-up gradually, likely to gain more traction next year with the impact of earlier rate cuts still unfolding. The MPC also noted potential risks to the external sector in the form of: i) widening trade deficit; and ii) weak financials inflows. Additionally, certain proposed FY26 budgetary measures are also likely to widen the trade deficit more.
  • Moreover, the MPC also pointed towards the recent sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the evolving geo-political situation in the Middle-East. Accordingly, the MPC has flagged Pakistan’s external outlook as susceptible to multiple risks like heightened geopolitical tensions, volatility in international oil prices, possible adverse impact of proposed budgetary measures, and potential shortfalls in planned financial inflows.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery sets in - By Foundation Research

Jun 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell in the Fertilizer sector is beginning to end with urea dispatches up 5/67% YoY/MoM respectively to 418KT in May’25. However, fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend in 5MCY25 fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. During 5MCY25, Urea/DAP sales recorded a decline of 31/19% YoY to only 1,768/340KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined/inclined 28/92% YoY/MoM to 207KT in May’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded a jump of 86%/3.7x YoY and 76/84% MoM to 142/54KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 26/25% YoY/MoM to reach 15KT in May’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 2.4x YoY (flat MoM) in May’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake inclined 2.2/7.6x YoY and surged/dropped 27/57% MoM to 68/14KT, respectively, in May’25.
  • Fertilizer sales picked up pace in May’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake increased by 5/67% YoY/MoM in May’25, reaching 418KT. DAP offtake increased 2.4x YoY to 95KT, whereas no change was observed on a MoM basis. NP offtake jumped 60/6% YoY/MoM in May’25 to 76KT, while CAN offtake increased 147/86% YoY/MoM to 83KT. In May’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,316KT, an eight year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing and previously high stock levels. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 238KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 359/570/321/66KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in May’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 139/19KT.
Economy: The MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged at 11% - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its meeting today wherein the committee decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% due to emerging risks amid evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects in its inflation outlook.
  • At its meeting today, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 11%, viewing this stance as appropriate in light of emerging external risks and to safeguard macroeconomic stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Committee observed that the uptick in headline inflation to 3.5% YoY in May 2025 aligned with earlier projections, as the favorable base effects on food prices gradually eroded. At the same time, core inflation recorded a slight moderation, and inflation expectations among households and businesses further softened.
  • Despite the more favorable inflation readings, the MPC highlighted the persistence of significant external risks that could undermine Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability. In particular, the Committee drew attention to heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by escalating trade protectionism and tariff measures, alongside volatile geopolitical conditions that continue to fuel instability. The MPC also highlighted that rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in international oil prices, thereby amplifying external vulnerabilities. Additionally, the potential adverse effects of proposed fiscal measures and the risk of shortfalls in planned external inflows were noted as factors that could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine overall price stability.
Cement: Lahore High Court announces 6% royalty decision against Cement Manufacturers - By Topline Research

Jun 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • In a major development today, Lahore High Court larger bench has announced its decision against the Punjab based cement manufacturers regarding royalty case. The companies will have to pay the royalty amount at prescribed formula of 6% of retention price.
  • Companies may go for appeal in Supreme Court now, however, this decision to go for review is not final yet from cement manufacturers.
  • To recall that manufacturers based in Punjab were already provisioning for their raw material cost based on formula of 6% of retention price.
Economy: Middle East Conflict-Implications for PSX - By Chase Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The conflict erupted after Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing several high-ranking generals and nuclear experts.
  • In retaliation, Iran fired over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones at Israel, targeting military sites and urban centers, in what it called "Operation True Promise III".
  • Both sides have since traded escalating rounds of attacks: Israel has struck more than 250 targets in Iran, including nuclear development sites, missile launch facilities, energy infrastructure, and the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tehran.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): FFC received board approval to submit EOI for PIACL privatization - By AKD Research

Jun 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) has announced that its Board of Directors, in a meeting held on June 13, 2025, approved the submission of an Expression of Interest (EOI) and prequalification documents to Privatization Commission for the potential acquisition of stakes in Pakistan International Airlines Corporation Ltd. (PIACL) and undertaking a comprehensive due diligence exercise as part of the process.
  • PIACL, the national flag carrier of Pakistan, holds the highest market share in the domestic aviation sector at 19% and operates fleet of 34 aircraft. In a major restructuring effort last year, gov’t carved out net liabilities amounting to PkR654bn and non-core assets into PIA Holding Company Ltd. (Holdco of PIACL), making PIACL a debt-lite entity. Notably, PIACL was EBITDA-positive in CY24, with a reported equity value of PkR3.6bn as of Dec’24.
  • To recall, Privatization Commission had set a minimum bid price of PkR85bn in the previous privatization attempt. While, FFC has cash and ST investments worth PkR147bn on a standalone basis as of Mar’25.
Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.
  • Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.
  • Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.
Morning News: Pakistan set to hold policy rates - By Vector Research

Jun 16 2025


Vector Securities


  • Central bank is expected to hold its policy rate on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as many analysts shifted their previous view of a cut in the wake of Israel’s military strike on Iran, citing inflation risks from rising global commodity prices.
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial has said that the government has to obtain approval from International Monetary Fund (IMF) for every taxrelated proposal including any exemption, reduction in tax rates or any changes in tax regime.
  • In a major leap for Pakistan’s economy, the Reko Diq Copper Project is set to contribute nearly 1 percent to the country’s GDP annually, positioning it as one of the most significant industrial ventures in country’s history. “Backed by latest major financing package from the International Finance Corporation (IFC)- including a US$300 million direct loan and US$400 million in blended finance - the project marks IFC’s first mining investment in Pakistan and signals renewed global confidence in the country’s economic potential,” said Dr Tauqir Shah, top aide to the prime minister. A media report claimed that as a result of this approval, the private sector is expected to invest $2.5 billion in the Reko Diq project. Dr Shah has played a key role in this achievement.
Morning News: IMF raises eyebrows over Rs344b grant - By Vector Research

Jun 13 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over provision of Rs344 billion grants to various sectors without approval from the National Assembly. Sources said the multilateral lender termed the grant for defence, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and other sectors without the nod of parliament a violation of the govt-IMF agreement. The federal government has additionally spent Rs344.66 billion during the current fiscal year in the shape of grants.
  • Pakistan slashed spending and pledged to stay the course on fiscal consolidation for the upcoming financial year, reinforcing the government’s commitment to its International Monetary Fund loan programme, reports Bloomberg. The budget plan unveiled Tuesday kept expenses unchanged, while proposing to increase taxes by 18 per cent to Rs2.56 trillion ($9 billion) for the year starting July, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in a parliament speech. That will lead to a primary balance surplus of 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product, said Aurangzeb, higher than the 1.6 per cent agreed with the IMF.
  • In a significant win for Pakistan, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank have approved a concessional loan of $700 million for the Reko Diq project, a major mining and resource development initiative. This approval, granted during a board meeting in Washington, is a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan and a major setback for India, which had actively lobbied against the funding.
Morning News: Budget 2025-26: Threat of Rs500bn tax hike if enforcement measures blocked - By Vector Research

Jun 12 2025


Vector Securities


  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Wednesday repeatedly warned that the government would be compelled to impose a further Rs400 to 500 billion in taxes if parliamentarians failed to approve the sweeping enforcement measures proposed in the 2025-26 budget — as they were already cleared by the International Monetary Fund.
  • Pakistan looks set to exceed its annual remittances target of $38 billion with $3.7bn inflows in May. So far in the 11 months of the fiscal year 2025 — July to May — Pakistan received $35bn in remittances. With the addition of June inflows, the total remittances are expected to exceed the revised target of $38bn for the current financial year.
  • The government raised approximately Rs1.1 trillion through auctions of Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and floating-rate Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). In the MTB auction, bids worth Rs853 billion were accepted by the State Bank of Pakistan. Similarly, the bond auction saw total acceptance of Rs206.91 billion.
Morning News: Pakistan secures over $1.5 billion for climate action amid rising environmental pressures - By Vector Research

Jun 10 2025


Vector Securities


  • Amid intensifying climate risks, Pakistan has mobilized over $1.5 billion in climate finance to combat environmental degradation and build resilience, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25. The funding includes $1.4 billion under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and $82 million from the Green Climate Fund, alongside the launch of a Rs30 billion Green Sukuk and the National Climate Finance Strategy.
  • The federal budget 2025-26 will be unveiled by Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday (today) in parliament. The budget size has been envisaged at Rs17.6 trillion against Rs18.78 trillion for the last fiscal year. The FBR’s tax collection target has been envisaged at Rs14.02 trillion for the next budget against revised estimates of Rs12.33 trillion for the outgoing fiscal year. However, it will be really hard for the FBR to display the revised target of Rs12.332 trillion on June 30, 2025.
  • The federal government is preparing for a challenging fiscal year ahead, with a proposed budget deficit of Rs 6.2 trillion, or 4.8% of GDP, for the upcoming fiscal year 2025-26. The total size of the budget is expected to be around Rs 17.6 trillion, which is 7.3% lower than this year’s original budget due to reduced allocations for interest payments.
Morning News: IMF wants ‘strict compliance’ as budget enters final stages - By Vector Research

Jun 5 2025


Vector Securities


  • Amid final consultations on the budget, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants strict compliance with programme requirements, including the coverage of agriculture income tax in provincial budgets to ensure effective collection starting no later than September 2025. The Fund also does not agree with a plan for incentivising enhanced power consumption desired by the federal government to absorb surplus capacity.
  • The government of Pakistan and Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday signed a $300 million loan agreement for the “Improved Resource Mobilization and Utilization Reform Programme (Subprogramme-II).
  • The National Economic Council (NEC) under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Wednesday approved the national development outlay of Rs4.224 trillion (Rs4,224 billion), including federal Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) of Rs1,000 billion for the next budget. The real GDP growth has been envisaged at 4.2 per cent of GDP and CPIbased inflation at 7.5 per cent for FY2025-26.
Morning News: ADB approves $800m financial package for Pakistan - By Vector Research

Jun 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved an $800 million financial package for Pakistan under the Resource Mobilization Reform Program (Subprogram-II). According to the Ministry of Finance, the package includes a $300m policy-based loan (PBL) and a $500m program-based guarantee (PBG).
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has objected to the government's contentious proposals to impose a capital value tax on moveable assets and to slap a 5% federal excise duty on one-day-old chicks — measures that underscore the business-as-usual approach of the tax machinery. While the IMF did not endorse the tax on moveable assets and one-day-old chicks, it did agree to the imposition of a tax on digital services aimed at raising Rs10 billion in revenue, according to sources in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). There is also a budget proposal to increase the tax on dividend income of mutual funds from 15% to 20%.
  • The Ministry of Commerce has expressed its inability to achieve the ambitious export target of $60 billion by 2029 set by the Prime Minister, citing a range of international and domestic challenges, according to official documents. 
Morning News: Budget talks with IMF successful: PM - By Vector Research

Jun 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Monday that talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the forthcoming federal budget had been successful, paving the way for a new phase of economic growth. Talking to a select group of journalists, Sharif said the government had stabilised the economy and would now shift its focus toward sustained development.
  • With an improved 4.2 per cent economic growth forecast for next year, the Ministry of Planning and Development cautioned on Monday about the re-emergence of external sector pressure amid easing import control and debt repayments.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation increased to 3.5 percent on Year-onYear basis in May 2025 as compared to 0.3 percent of the previous month and 11.8 percent in May 2024, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Average CPI in the country remained at 4.61 percent during the first 10 months (July-May) 2024-25 compared to 24.52 percent during the same period of last fiscal year
Morning News: Trade talks; Pakistani officials coming next week: US resident - By Vector Research

Jun 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday representatives from Pakistan are coming to the United States next week as the South Asian country seeks to make a deal on tariffs. Pakistan faces a potential 29 percent tariff on its exports to the United States due to a $3 billion trade surplus with the world’s biggest economy, under tariffs announced by Washington last month on countries around the world.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sought an explanation from the government for not taking it into confidence while setting aside 2,000 megawatts of electricity for Bitcoin mining and AI data centres. Sources told that IMF officials will take up the issue with the government during a virtual interaction. They stated that the IMF has asked as to how such allocation could be made without deciding the legal status of cryptocurrency.
  • The IMF and Pakistan are heading towards evolving consensus on proposed reduction in tax rates for the salaried class in the budget for 2025-26, it has been learnt. However, it will be a challenge for the budget makers to achieve Rs14.2 trillion target in the next budget, as the basis for next fiscal year’s target has seen a widening tax shortfall in meeting downward-revised tax collection target of Rs12.33 trillion.
Morning News: Fitch upgrades country’s rating; Macroeconomic stabilisation acknowledged - By Vector Research

May 30 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s economy has been upgraded by Fitch Ratings, acknowledging macroeconomic stabilisation in the outgoing fiscal year, supported by improved fiscal performance, current account surplus and easing inflation, says Monthly Economic Update released by Finance Division on Thursday. Revenue growth outpaced expenditure, reducing the fiscal deficit and further strengthening the primary surplus. The current account posted a $1.9 billion surplus, with a robust growth in exports and remittances. Inflation declined to a record low, paving the way for a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
  • Pakistan’s Finance Ministry expects inflation to ease to between 1.5% and 2% year-onyear in May, before picking up to 3%-4% in June, according to the ministry’s monthly economic report released on Thursday.
  • In a landmark move toward sustainable and Shariah-compliant public financing, the Government of Pakistan has issued its first sovereign Green Sukuk, with strategic backing from Meezan Bank and the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Meezan Bank played a pivotal role in this milestone transaction, acting as Joint Financial and Shariah Advisor. The Bank also led the development of the Sustainable Investment (SI) Sukuk Framework, approved by the federal cabinet in April 2025.
Morning News: Consensus eludes Pakistan, IMF over revenue, expenditure - By Vector Research

May 29 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and the IMF have so far been unable to reach a consensus on the total revenue and expenditure framework for the upcoming budget. Although both sides held informal virtual parleys on Tuesday, nothing concrete has been finalised so far. With change of guard at the IMF, as Ms. Eva assumed the charge as Mission Chief following the completion of Nathan Porter’s tenure, the finalisation of budgetary numbers has not yet been accomplished. However, both sides have kick-started virtual talks with the anticipation to undertake number crunching on revenue and expenditure side by the end of the current week. Then the IMF will have to endorse the proposed revenue measures in order to jack up the collection to the desired mark for the next financial year 2025-26.
  • China has assured Pakistan of relending $3.7 billion in commercial loans, denominated in Chinese currency, before the end of June, including $2.4 billion that is maturing next month, in a move that will help keep the foreign exchange reserves in double-digits. Unlike in the past, when Beijing has given loans in non-Chinese currency too, this time Pakistan's strategic ally has decided not to give loans in the United States currency as part of its drive to decouple the economy from the dollar; the government sources told. They said that China gave these assurances during recent meetings, aimed at securing the refinancing of loans maturing between March and June 2025.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has purchased $5.9 billion from the currency market since June 2024 to bolster its reserves despite receiving support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and friendly countries. The higher remittance inflows provided sufficient room for the State Bank to purchase dollars, but it was unable to achieve the target it had projected for itself. Following unexpectedly higher inflows from overseas Pakistanis, the SBP revised its foreign exchange reserves target to $14 billion and remittances to $38bn for FY25.