Morning News:Rs1trn set aside for PSDP - By WE Research

Jun 11 2025



  • The 2025–26 budget allocates Rs1,000 billion for the federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), marking a 28.5% decline from the previous year’s Rs1,400 billion, with provincial Annual Development Plans totaling Rs2,869 billion. A separate Rs355 billion is set aside for state-owned entities, up from Rs196.8 billion last year. The highest PSDP allocation goes to transport (Rs225 billion), followed by water resources (Rs184 billion), while climate receives a minimal Rs5.26 billion despite Pakistan’s vulnerability. Key dam projects—Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand—receive Rs60, Rs20, and Rs15 billion, respectively. Allocations also include Rs70 billion for merged districts, Rs74.5 billion for special areas (AJK and GB), Rs24.7 billion for health, Rs23 billion for IT and telecom, Rs61 billion for higher education, and smaller amounts for skills training, education endowment, and disease control. The PSDP vision, “Uraan Pakistan,” emphasizes inclusivity and national potential.
  • The Finance Bill 2025–26 proposes to withdraw the 3% federal excise duty (FED) on the transfer of residential and commercial properties, effective July 1, 2025, which was initially imposed through the Finance Act 2024 and became subject to litigation. The government had earlier considered withdrawing it via ordinance but did not proceed. Additionally, withholding tax rates under Section 236K on property purchases are proposed to be reduced: 1.5% for properties up to Rs50 million, 2% for Rs50–100 million, and 2.5% above Rs100 million. In contrast, withholding taxes under Section 236C for sellers are being increased to 4.5%, 5%, and 5.5% for the same value brackets. Though no justification is provided for this disparity, it may incentivize buyers to prefer properties from builders and developers over the secondary market.
  • In the 2025–26 budget presented by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, modest tax relief has been proposed for the salaried class, though it falls short of expectations. The new tax policy exempts annual incomes below Rs 600,000, with the next slab (Rs 600,000–1.2 million) seeing the tax rate drop from 5% to 1%, providing an 80% tax cut. Those earning between Rs 1.2 million and Rs 3.2 million will see rates reduced slightly, while the top two slabs (incomes above Rs 3.2 million) remain unchanged at 30% and 35%. Despite an average relief of 29%, higher earners benefit more proportionally—with individuals earning over Rs 1 crore getting a 27% cut—while the majority of salaried workers see minimal impact. The salaried class, contributing Rs 430 billion in taxes in the first ten months of FY 2024–25 (over 10% of total tax collection), remains the most taxed segment, especially when compared to retailers and exporters. With taxes deducted at source by employers acting as withholding agents, this group has little room to evade taxes unlike others, reflecting continued fiscal pressure despite marginal relief.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 16, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 122,903, but failed to sustain momentum. It eventually closed at 122,225, as profit-taking emerged later in the session. On the economic front, the State Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%, aligning with expectations. Trading activity was dominated by small-cap stocks, reflecting short-term speculative interest. Market volume stood at 1,224mn shares, with top activity in WTL, PASL, FCSC, KOSM and MDTL. We advise investors to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive exposure for now. Risk management remains key amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro developments.
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept policy rate unchanged at 11%, inline with market expectations. The committee noted that inflation recorded an uptick to clock in at ~3.5% in May’25, as expected and is likely to inch up in coming months and stabilize in target range during FY26. The impact of policy rate cut is kicking in as reflected in improved economic activity. The committee highlighted that trade deficit and shortfalls in planned inflows posses risk to external account. The MPC further elaborated that some of the actions announced in budget might have negative impact on trade balance.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes provisional GDP growth of 2.7% for FY25 and ambitious growth target of 4.2% for FY26, successful disbursement of US$1bn from IMF after completion of first review of EFF program, revised estimate of primary deficit at 2.2% of GDP and some decline in agriculture output compared to initial estimates.
  • Overall, MPC believes the current real policy rate is sufficiently positive to keep inflation within the target range of 5%–7%. However, timely receipt of planned inflows, achieving targeted fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms are crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Moreover, fluid geopolitical situation and its impact on oil prices will remain a key variable for Pakistan.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-political tensions to weigh on the economy - By Taurus Reseach

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Escalation reaches new highs as Iran and Israel continue to trade blows at each other. Earlier, Israel had conducted pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure along with killing the country’s top military leaders and nuclear scientists. Since then Iran has conducted multiple rounds of retaliatory missile strikes inside Israel. The latter have been reciprocated by the bombing of more targets in Iran by the Israeli air force.
  • The situation remains fluid as neither side seems to be willing to exercise restraint. Iran has also called-off negotiations with the US on its nuclear program. Further, Iran has also alleged the role of the US and its allies in the region in backing the Israeli attacks, invoking the possibility of striking US and its allies’ air bases and embassies in the region in case of further escalation. The latter may broaden the conflict, adversely affecting the world economy.
Economy: Jun’25 Monetary Policy Review - By Taurus Research

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting today kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, in line with expectations. The MPC highlighted the marginal decline in core inflation in May’25, with expectations of NCPI trending upwards going forward – albeit remaining within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%. Wherein, recent budgetary measures are likely to have limited impact on inflation, although upside risks to this outlook remain very high.
  • Economic growth is picking-up gradually, likely to gain more traction next year with the impact of earlier rate cuts still unfolding. The MPC also noted potential risks to the external sector in the form of: i) widening trade deficit; and ii) weak financials inflows. Additionally, certain proposed FY26 budgetary measures are also likely to widen the trade deficit more.
  • Moreover, the MPC also pointed towards the recent sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the evolving geo-political situation in the Middle-East. Accordingly, the MPC has flagged Pakistan’s external outlook as susceptible to multiple risks like heightened geopolitical tensions, volatility in international oil prices, possible adverse impact of proposed budgetary measures, and potential shortfalls in planned financial inflows.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery sets in - By Foundation Research

Jun 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell in the Fertilizer sector is beginning to end with urea dispatches up 5/67% YoY/MoM respectively to 418KT in May’25. However, fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend in 5MCY25 fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. During 5MCY25, Urea/DAP sales recorded a decline of 31/19% YoY to only 1,768/340KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined/inclined 28/92% YoY/MoM to 207KT in May’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded a jump of 86%/3.7x YoY and 76/84% MoM to 142/54KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 26/25% YoY/MoM to reach 15KT in May’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 2.4x YoY (flat MoM) in May’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake inclined 2.2/7.6x YoY and surged/dropped 27/57% MoM to 68/14KT, respectively, in May’25.
  • Fertilizer sales picked up pace in May’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake increased by 5/67% YoY/MoM in May’25, reaching 418KT. DAP offtake increased 2.4x YoY to 95KT, whereas no change was observed on a MoM basis. NP offtake jumped 60/6% YoY/MoM in May’25 to 76KT, while CAN offtake increased 147/86% YoY/MoM to 83KT. In May’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,316KT, an eight year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing and previously high stock levels. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 238KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 359/570/321/66KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in May’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 139/19KT.
Economy: The MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged at 11% - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its meeting today wherein the committee decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% due to emerging risks amid evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects in its inflation outlook.
  • At its meeting today, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 11%, viewing this stance as appropriate in light of emerging external risks and to safeguard macroeconomic stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Committee observed that the uptick in headline inflation to 3.5% YoY in May 2025 aligned with earlier projections, as the favorable base effects on food prices gradually eroded. At the same time, core inflation recorded a slight moderation, and inflation expectations among households and businesses further softened.
  • Despite the more favorable inflation readings, the MPC highlighted the persistence of significant external risks that could undermine Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability. In particular, the Committee drew attention to heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by escalating trade protectionism and tariff measures, alongside volatile geopolitical conditions that continue to fuel instability. The MPC also highlighted that rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in international oil prices, thereby amplifying external vulnerabilities. Additionally, the potential adverse effects of proposed fiscal measures and the risk of shortfalls in planned external inflows were noted as factors that could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine overall price stability.
Cement: Lahore High Court announces 6% royalty decision against Cement Manufacturers - By Topline Research

Jun 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • In a major development today, Lahore High Court larger bench has announced its decision against the Punjab based cement manufacturers regarding royalty case. The companies will have to pay the royalty amount at prescribed formula of 6% of retention price.
  • Companies may go for appeal in Supreme Court now, however, this decision to go for review is not final yet from cement manufacturers.
  • To recall that manufacturers based in Punjab were already provisioning for their raw material cost based on formula of 6% of retention price.
Economy: Middle East Conflict-Implications for PSX - By Chase Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The conflict erupted after Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing several high-ranking generals and nuclear experts.
  • In retaliation, Iran fired over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones at Israel, targeting military sites and urban centers, in what it called "Operation True Promise III".
  • Both sides have since traded escalating rounds of attacks: Israel has struck more than 250 targets in Iran, including nuclear development sites, missile launch facilities, energy infrastructure, and the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tehran.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): FFC received board approval to submit EOI for PIACL privatization - By AKD Research

Jun 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) has announced that its Board of Directors, in a meeting held on June 13, 2025, approved the submission of an Expression of Interest (EOI) and prequalification documents to Privatization Commission for the potential acquisition of stakes in Pakistan International Airlines Corporation Ltd. (PIACL) and undertaking a comprehensive due diligence exercise as part of the process.
  • PIACL, the national flag carrier of Pakistan, holds the highest market share in the domestic aviation sector at 19% and operates fleet of 34 aircraft. In a major restructuring effort last year, gov’t carved out net liabilities amounting to PkR654bn and non-core assets into PIA Holding Company Ltd. (Holdco of PIACL), making PIACL a debt-lite entity. Notably, PIACL was EBITDA-positive in CY24, with a reported equity value of PkR3.6bn as of Dec’24.
  • To recall, Privatization Commission had set a minimum bid price of PkR85bn in the previous privatization attempt. While, FFC has cash and ST investments worth PkR147bn on a standalone basis as of Mar’25.
Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.
  • Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.
  • Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.
Morning News: Dar says steps under way to enhance financial ties with Turkiye - By WE Research

Jun 16 2025



  • Pakistan is working to strengthen its economic partnership with Turkiye by enhancing cooperation in financial and logistics services, including plans to allow Turkish banks to operate in Pakistan and convening the 6th session of the Pakistan-Turkiye Joint Ministerial Commission. Turkiye has shown interest in investing in Pakistan’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs), prompting the development of a tailored investment package. Both nations aim to boost bilateral trade to $5 billion by 2025, up from the current $1.02 billion, with opportunities identified in Pakistan’s growing IT sector and healthcare projects like the Jinnah Medical Complex. Meanwhile, in the energy sector, the government has renegotiated contracts with several Independent Power Producers (IPPs), saving Rs3.612 trillion and reducing capacity costs. The circular debt remains a major challenge, amounting to Rs2,396 billion as of March 2025, with a Rs1.2 trillion refinancing package underway—funded by a debt service surcharge on electricity consumers—to stabilize the sector under the Circular Debt Management Plan.
  • The Reko Diq Copper Project is emerging as a transformative force for Pakistan’s economy, with expectations of contributing nearly 1% to GDP annually and attracting $2.5 billion in private sector investment. Backed by a $700 million concessional financing package from the IFC and the World Bank— marking IFC’s first mining investment in Pakistan—the project signals renewed global confidence in the country's economic potential. Spearheaded by Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC), and owned jointly by Barrick Gold Corporation (50%) and Pakistani stakeholders (50%), the mine holds one of the world’s largest untapped copper reserves, with a 40-year life span and anticipated annual output of 200,000– 250,000 tons. It promises up to $2 billion annually in gross value added, full foreign exchange revenue, and significant job creation—up to 10,000 during construction and 3,000 during operations. Alongside strict environmental and social standards, the project includes investments in local infrastructure, community development, and gender inclusion. However, logistical challenges remain, particularly for Pakistan Railways, which must upgrade transport links to ports. The project also highlights a historical failure in governance, having been delayed for decades due to poor decision-making and legal missteps.
Morning News: Housing scheme with SBP’s help: Rs5bn set aside for mark-up subsidy - By WE Research

Jun 12 2025



  • In the FY26 budget, the federal government has allocated Rs 5 billion for a mark-up subsidy under a new low-cost housing scheme, launched in partnership with the State Bank of Pakistan, along with Rs 1 billion for the Naya Pakistan Housing Authority, to address the country’s housing shortage and revitalize the construction sector. This initiative follows the suspension of the "Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar" scheme in 2022 and includes several tax incentives, such as reduced withholding tax on property purchases and the abolition of the 7% Federal Excise Duty on property transfers. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb also announced tax credits for home loan interest on properties of specific sizes. Experts, including U.S.-based real estate consultant Dr. Anosh Ahmed, have praised these measures as timely and essential for stimulating economic growth, job creation, and industrial development, highlighting their potential to support middle-income families and boost real estate investment.
  • In May 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) registered a record 3,609 new companies, bringing the total number of registered companies in the country to over 255,000. Nearly all incorporations (99.9%) were completed digitally, with over Rs2.7 billion in capital raised. Private limited companies constituted 59% of new registrations, followed by single-member companies at 37%. The IT and e-commerce sectors led with 718 new incorporations, followed by trading, services, and construction. The SECP also issued 56 licenses, including to NGOs, capital markets, insurance, and nonbanking finance entities. Additionally, foreign investment was reported in 98 of the newly registered companies.
  • In a post-budget press briefing, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced a major tariff reform, eliminating additional customs duties on 4,000 out of 7,000 tariff lines and reducing duties on another 2,700 to support industrial growth and boost exports. This move, part of Pakistan’s broader economic restructuring, aims to lower input costs for exporters, integrate the economy into global supply chains, and transition from import substitution to export-led growth. The minister also introduced fiscal measures for relief to salaried individuals and small businesses, and prioritized support for construction and agriculture through lower transaction costs and improved credit access. Reforms in the digital economy include a new e-commerce framework and mandatory tax registration for small online businesses, alongside the imposition of an 18% GST on solar plant imports to support local manufacturing. The government has generated Rs400 billion in additional revenue this year and aims to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.9% by FY26. Aurangzeb also shared plans for bond repayments and new international market issuances, including a Panda Bond, while stressing the importance of improving Pakistan’s credit rating. The press conference was briefly disrupted by a journalists' boycott over the lack of a traditional technical briefing.
Morning News:Rs1trn set aside for PSDP - By WE Research

Jun 11 2025



  • The 2025–26 budget allocates Rs1,000 billion for the federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), marking a 28.5% decline from the previous year’s Rs1,400 billion, with provincial Annual Development Plans totaling Rs2,869 billion. A separate Rs355 billion is set aside for state-owned entities, up from Rs196.8 billion last year. The highest PSDP allocation goes to transport (Rs225 billion), followed by water resources (Rs184 billion), while climate receives a minimal Rs5.26 billion despite Pakistan’s vulnerability. Key dam projects—Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand—receive Rs60, Rs20, and Rs15 billion, respectively. Allocations also include Rs70 billion for merged districts, Rs74.5 billion for special areas (AJK and GB), Rs24.7 billion for health, Rs23 billion for IT and telecom, Rs61 billion for higher education, and smaller amounts for skills training, education endowment, and disease control. The PSDP vision, “Uraan Pakistan,” emphasizes inclusivity and national potential.
  • The Finance Bill 2025–26 proposes to withdraw the 3% federal excise duty (FED) on the transfer of residential and commercial properties, effective July 1, 2025, which was initially imposed through the Finance Act 2024 and became subject to litigation. The government had earlier considered withdrawing it via ordinance but did not proceed. Additionally, withholding tax rates under Section 236K on property purchases are proposed to be reduced: 1.5% for properties up to Rs50 million, 2% for Rs50–100 million, and 2.5% above Rs100 million. In contrast, withholding taxes under Section 236C for sellers are being increased to 4.5%, 5%, and 5.5% for the same value brackets. Though no justification is provided for this disparity, it may incentivize buyers to prefer properties from builders and developers over the secondary market.
  • In the 2025–26 budget presented by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, modest tax relief has been proposed for the salaried class, though it falls short of expectations. The new tax policy exempts annual incomes below Rs 600,000, with the next slab (Rs 600,000–1.2 million) seeing the tax rate drop from 5% to 1%, providing an 80% tax cut. Those earning between Rs 1.2 million and Rs 3.2 million will see rates reduced slightly, while the top two slabs (incomes above Rs 3.2 million) remain unchanged at 30% and 35%. Despite an average relief of 29%, higher earners benefit more proportionally—with individuals earning over Rs 1 crore getting a 27% cut—while the majority of salaried workers see minimal impact. The salaried class, contributing Rs 430 billion in taxes in the first ten months of FY 2024–25 (over 10% of total tax collection), remains the most taxed segment, especially when compared to retailers and exporters. With taxes deducted at source by employers acting as withholding agents, this group has little room to evade taxes unlike others, reflecting continued fiscal pressure despite marginal relief.
Morning News: ADB approves $800m financing for Pakistan - By WE Research

Jun 4 2025



  • The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved an $800 million program to enhance fiscal sustainability and public financial management in Pakistan through the Improved Resource Mobilization and Utilization Reform Program, Subprogram 2. This includes a $300 million policy-based loan and ADB’s first-ever policy-based guarantee of up to $500 million, expected to attract $1 billion from commercial banks. Originally scheduled for May 28, the ADB board meeting was delayed due to a request from the Indian executive director and later held on June 3. The program supports reforms in tax policy, public expenditure, digitalisation, and private sector development, aiming to reduce Pakistan’s fiscal deficit and debt while fostering sustainable growth. ADB and Pakistani officials emphasize the country's recent macroeconomic improvements and the importance of coordinated efforts for long-term fiscal resilience.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari has summoned the National Assembly and Senate to convene on June 10 at 5 p.m. for the federal budget session for the fiscal year 2025–26. Finance Minister Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb is expected to present the budget and Finance Bill during these sessions, called under Article 54(1) of the Constitution. The National Assembly Secretariat has issued special passes for press, officials, and other attendees, while a comprehensive security plan has been put in place for the Parliament House to ensure safety during the proceedings.
  • Pakistan’s budget team, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, is working to convince the IMF to drop its demand to raise the Federal Excise Duty (FED) on fertilizer from 5% to 10% in the 2025–26 budget. The government also aims to avoid a proposed 5% FED on pesticides, with both moves intended to ease pressure on the struggling agriculture sector. In exchange, Pakistan has highlighted provincial amendments to the Agriculture Income Tax (AIT), which will begin collection in the next fiscal year. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has been asked to assess the impact of proposed tariff rationalization on imports, amid concerns about potential tax evasion. Meanwhile, the IMF has rejected requests to continue GST exemptions for the former FATA/PATA regions, with a reduced 12% GST now likely to be imposed. The negotiations reflect a balancing act between IMF conditions and domestic political and economic challenges, particularly in the agricultural sector.
Morning News: Budget talks with IMF successful: PM - By WE Research

Jun 3 2025



  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that talks with the IMF regarding the upcoming federal budget were successful, marking a transition from economic stability to sustained development. Speaking to journalists, he emphasized the absence of corruption during his government’s tenure and reaffirmed a commitment to institutional reforms. Sharif also expressed willingness to engage India in dialogue on key issues like Kashmir, water, trade, and terrorism, though he criticized Indian Prime Minister Modi’s recent comments. The forthcoming budget, now set to be presented on June 10 by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, is expected to follow IMF guidelines, focusing on economic stabilisation and targeted relief. Meanwhile, development spending under the PSDP has been revised downward from Rs1.4 trillion to Rs1.096 trillion due to budgetary constraints.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that talks with the IMF regarding the upcoming federal budget were successful, marking a transition from economic stability to sustained development. Speaking to journalists, he emphasized the absence of corruption during his government’s tenure and reaffirmed a commitment to institutional reforms. Sharif also expressed willingness to engage India in dialogue on key issues like Kashmir, water, trade, and terrorism, though he criticized Indian Prime Minister Modi’s recent comments. The forthcoming budget, now set to be presented on June 10 by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, is expected to follow IMF guidelines, focusing on economic stabilisation and targeted relief. Meanwhile, development spending under the PSDP has been revised downward from Rs1.4 trillion to Rs1.096 trillion due to budgetary constraints.
  • Headline inflation in Pakistan rose by 3.5% year-on-year in May 2025, surpassing the finance ministry's expectations, though it declined slightly by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis. The average inflation for the first 11 months of FY25 stood at 4.61%, a significant drop from 24.52% during the same period in FY24. Key urban price hikes included chicken (51.96%), pulse moong, fresh fruits, and motor vehicle tax, while rural areas saw similar trends with notable increases in chicken, milk powder, and personal effects. On a monthly basis, both urban and rural regions experienced spikes in egg, chicken, and sugar prices, alongside modest rises in non-food categories like clothing, healthcare, and education. The finance ministry had earlier cautioned about a potential inflation uptick due to slow growth in large-scale manufacturing, anticipating further pressure in June.
Morning News: High-powered delegation in US to argue Pakistan’s case - By WE Research

Jun 2 2025



  • Pakistan has launched a comprehensive diplomatic campaign in the United States to counter India’s growing influence and present its own narrative regarding recent regional tensions. A high-level delegation, including former diplomats and a current minister, arrived in New York for meetings with top UN officials, Security Council representatives, and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Starting June 3, the group will also engage with U.S. officials, lawmakers, think tanks, and media to voice concerns over India’s “escalatory moves” and prevent efforts to reframe the conflict in ways detrimental to Pakistan, such as revisiting its FATF status. The initiative is part of a dual-track strategy combining official diplomacy and informal outreach. Meanwhile, parallel Indian delegations are also active in Washington, prompting Pakistani officials to emphasize their commitment to transparency, reform, and mature diplomacy. Additionally, Pakistan and the UK agreed to enhance multilateral cooperation, particularly at the UN, during a recent call between their foreign ministers.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns with the Pakistani government for allocating 2,000 megawatts of electricity to Bitcoin mining and AI data centers without prior consultation or resolving the legal status of cryptocurrency. The IMF emphasized that such decisions should align with the agreed framework of its financial program and be made collaboratively. Virtual consultations are planned, with the IMF expected to press the government on this and other fiscal matters during upcoming budget discussions. The initiative, led by the Pakistan Crypto Council and supported by the government, aims to utilize surplus electricity, attract foreign investment, and position Pakistan as a global leader in digital innovation. Future phases include renewable energy-powered facilities and partnerships with top blockchain and AI firms.
  • The news highlights ongoing negotiations between Pakistan and the IMF over proposed tax relief for the salaried class in the 2025–26 budget, with the IMF showing conditional support for reducing tax rates across income slabs—potentially offering relief worth Rs56–60 billion. However, this comes amid serious fiscal challenges, including a widening revenue shortfall and difficulty in meeting the current year’s revised tax target of Rs12.33 trillion, making the ambitious Rs14.2 trillion target for the next year appear unrealistic. While tariff rationalization is being considered to stimulate economic activity, it may result in a revenue loss of up to Rs200 billion, and raise enforcement concerns over import misdeclarations. Additionally, the IMF has objected to Pakistan's recent decision to allocate 2,000MW of electricity for cryptocurrency mining without prior regulatory approval, compounding tensions around fiscal and policy coordination. Overall, the situation reflects a delicate balancing act between offering taxpayer relief, maintaining revenue targets, and satisfying IMF program requirements.
Morning News: Bulls dominate as PSX rise by 600 points due to budget expectations - By WE Research

May 30 2025



  • On Thursday, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) saw a strong bullish trend, with the KSE-100 index rising by 638.5 points (0.54%) to close at 118,971.40. The rally was driven by positive investor sentiment fueled by expectations of a favorable upcoming federal budget and strong corporate earnings. Samiullah Tariq of Pak Kuwait Investment Company noted that optimism around the budget contributed to market performance. Meanwhile, the federal budget's announcement has been postponed from June 2 to June 10 due to ongoing discussions with the IMF regarding taxation and fiscal policies, including meetings with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.
  • The government has confirmed that the federal budget for the fiscal year 2025–26 will be presented on June 10, 2025, as reaffirmed by Khurram Schehzad, Advisor to the Finance Minister, amid speculation of further delays due to Eid holidays. Originally set for June 2, the date was pushed back, but Schehzad clarified via a post on X that both the budget and the Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 remain on schedule. The Economic Survey will be released on June 9, expected to fall on the third day of Eid-ul-Adha, with the budget announcement following on the fourth day.
  • Fitch Ratings upgraded Pakistan’s economy, citing macroeconomic stabilization supported by improved fiscal performance, a current account surplus, and record-low inflation, which enabled a policy rate cut. Revenue growth outpaced expenditures, reducing the fiscal deficit, while exports and remittances boosted the current account to a $1.9 billion surplus. Although Large Scale Manufacturing showed mixed results, the automobile and export sectors grew strongly. Agricultural productivity improved with better credit and input availability. Inflation dropped to 0.3% YoY in April, supporting consumer purchasing power. Despite geopolitical pressures impacting the stock market, government fiscal discipline, expanding credit, and new green financing initiatives signal a positive outlook for sustainable economic growth.
Morning News: Forex reserves exceed $16bn mark on IMF tranche - By WE Research

May 23 2025



  • Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.034 billion in one week, reaching $16.649 billion as of May 16, 2025, largely due to a $1.023 billion IMF loan tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This marks the highest level in four months. While the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves increased, commercial banks' reserves dipped slightly by $9 million. The IMF also approved a $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to help Pakistan address climate challenges and support growth. The IMF funds are expected to attract further international financial support, with SBP projecting reserves to exceed $14 billion by June 2025.
  • World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde praised Pakistan’s recent economic reforms as a “globally recognised model,” crediting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership for driving the transformation. During a high-level meeting in Islamabad, Bjerde highlighted Sharif’s focus on sustainable policies, political unity, and development that prioritizes people. She referred to Pakistan’s Country Partnership Framework as the “Pakistan Model,” citing its successful implementation. Sharif thanked the World Bank for its support, especially following the 2022 floods, and noted the partnership will lead to over $20 billion in development investment. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with a World Bank delegation led by Managing Director Anna Bjerde to discuss development cooperation and the Country Partnership Framework, which is expected to bring over $20 billion in financing to Pakistan. Sharif emphasized the government’s efforts to fully leverage this investment and thanked the World Bank for its support during the 2022 floods. Bjerde praised Pakistan’s progress on macroeconomic stability and called the partnership a global model, now referred to as the “Pakistan Model.” The meeting reaffirmed strong cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with several senior officials in attendance.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Morning News: SIFC facilitates $2.3 billion in foreign investment since inception, NA informed - By WE Research

May 21 2025



  • Since the formation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in June 2023, Pakistan has attracted around $2.3 billion in foreign investment, with the council credited for easing investor hurdles and streamlining processes. Federal Minister Dr. Tariq Fazal Chaudhry linked SIFC's work to addressing regional security issues, including tensions related to Indian proxies. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Climate Change highlighted Pakistan’s top ranking on the 2025 Climate Risk Index due to the catastrophic 2022 floods, which caused significant human and economic losses. In cybersecurity, Pakistan advanced into the top tier of the UN Global Cyber Security Index 2024, attributed to institutional reforms and the creation of a national emergency response team. With over 20,700 registered IT companies, the government emphasized its ongoing commitment to economic stability, climate resilience, and technological growth through global collaboration.
  • Pakistan’s leading oil refineries have pledged over $6 billion in refinery upgrade projects aimed at modernizing the country’s refining infrastructure and ensuring long-term energy security. In a meeting with Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik, refinery CEOs expressed appreciation for the government's resolution of a long-standing sales tax issue, which they said fosters a more investment-friendly and efficient environment. The CEOs reaffirmed their commitment to upgrading facilities to produce cleaner, Euro-V compliant fuels in line with the Prime Minister’s vision for sustainable energy. Minister Malik emphasized policy consistency and government support as key to sector viability and attracting foreign investment. The upgrades are expected to enhance fuel quality, reduce emissions, cut dependence on imports, and contribute to environmental sustainability, forming a central part of Pakistan’s broader energy and economic strategy.
  • Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO) has announced that the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved the TriPartite Power Purchase Agreement (TPPA), involving the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G), KAPCO, and the National Grid Company of Pakistan. As per NEPRA’s directives in a letter dated May 19, 2025, the signing of the TPPA is contingent upon conducting the Initial Capacity Test (ICT) and Heat Rate Test (HRT). An Independent Engineer will assess and submit the plant's efficiency benchmarks, including Simple Cycle Efficiency and Heat Rate, to NEPRA. Once these steps are completed, the TPPA will become operational, enabling the power plant to commence operations under the new agreement.