Pakistan Economy: Policy rate likely to remain ‘unchanged’ - By Taurus Research

Jun 13 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on Monday June 16, 2025, wherein we expect the MPC to keep the benchmark policy rate ‘unchanged’ at 11%. Our expectations are primarily based on the following factors:
  • Geo-political developments: Recent escalation between Iran and Israel, as well as the war between Russia & Ukraine, continues to pose upside risks to commodity prices in particular oil. For context, oil prices are up ~9% following Israel’s attack on Iran. These pressures pose a significant risk to inflation expectations.
  • Core inflation remains elevated: Core inflation in Urban and Rural areas was recorded at 7.3% and ~9%, respectively in the latest NCPI reading for the month of May’25. We believe the MPC would like to see a more sustained decrease in the same.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 16, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 122,903, but failed to sustain momentum. It eventually closed at 122,225, as profit-taking emerged later in the session. On the economic front, the State Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%, aligning with expectations. Trading activity was dominated by small-cap stocks, reflecting short-term speculative interest. Market volume stood at 1,224mn shares, with top activity in WTL, PASL, FCSC, KOSM and MDTL. We advise investors to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive exposure for now. Risk management remains key amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro developments.
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways - By Insight Research

Jun 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has kept policy rate unchanged at 11%, inline with market expectations. The committee noted that inflation recorded an uptick to clock in at ~3.5% in May’25, as expected and is likely to inch up in coming months and stabilize in target range during FY26. The impact of policy rate cut is kicking in as reflected in improved economic activity. The committee highlighted that trade deficit and shortfalls in planned inflows posses risk to external account. The MPC further elaborated that some of the actions announced in budget might have negative impact on trade balance.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes provisional GDP growth of 2.7% for FY25 and ambitious growth target of 4.2% for FY26, successful disbursement of US$1bn from IMF after completion of first review of EFF program, revised estimate of primary deficit at 2.2% of GDP and some decline in agriculture output compared to initial estimates.
  • Overall, MPC believes the current real policy rate is sufficiently positive to keep inflation within the target range of 5%–7%. However, timely receipt of planned inflows, achieving targeted fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms are crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Moreover, fluid geopolitical situation and its impact on oil prices will remain a key variable for Pakistan.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-political tensions to weigh on the economy - By Taurus Reseach

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Escalation reaches new highs as Iran and Israel continue to trade blows at each other. Earlier, Israel had conducted pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure along with killing the country’s top military leaders and nuclear scientists. Since then Iran has conducted multiple rounds of retaliatory missile strikes inside Israel. The latter have been reciprocated by the bombing of more targets in Iran by the Israeli air force.
  • The situation remains fluid as neither side seems to be willing to exercise restraint. Iran has also called-off negotiations with the US on its nuclear program. Further, Iran has also alleged the role of the US and its allies in the region in backing the Israeli attacks, invoking the possibility of striking US and its allies’ air bases and embassies in the region in case of further escalation. The latter may broaden the conflict, adversely affecting the world economy.
Economy: Jun’25 Monetary Policy Review - By Taurus Research

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting today kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, in line with expectations. The MPC highlighted the marginal decline in core inflation in May’25, with expectations of NCPI trending upwards going forward – albeit remaining within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%. Wherein, recent budgetary measures are likely to have limited impact on inflation, although upside risks to this outlook remain very high.
  • Economic growth is picking-up gradually, likely to gain more traction next year with the impact of earlier rate cuts still unfolding. The MPC also noted potential risks to the external sector in the form of: i) widening trade deficit; and ii) weak financials inflows. Additionally, certain proposed FY26 budgetary measures are also likely to widen the trade deficit more.
  • Moreover, the MPC also pointed towards the recent sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the evolving geo-political situation in the Middle-East. Accordingly, the MPC has flagged Pakistan’s external outlook as susceptible to multiple risks like heightened geopolitical tensions, volatility in international oil prices, possible adverse impact of proposed budgetary measures, and potential shortfalls in planned financial inflows.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery sets in - By Foundation Research

Jun 16 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The dry spell in the Fertilizer sector is beginning to end with urea dispatches up 5/67% YoY/MoM respectively to 418KT in May’25. However, fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend in 5MCY25 fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer income. During 5MCY25, Urea/DAP sales recorded a decline of 31/19% YoY to only 1,768/340KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined/inclined 28/92% YoY/MoM to 207KT in May’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded a jump of 86%/3.7x YoY and 76/84% MoM to 142/54KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 26/25% YoY/MoM to reach 15KT in May’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 2.4x YoY (flat MoM) in May’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake inclined 2.2/7.6x YoY and surged/dropped 27/57% MoM to 68/14KT, respectively, in May’25.
  • Fertilizer sales picked up pace in May’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake increased by 5/67% YoY/MoM in May’25, reaching 418KT. DAP offtake increased 2.4x YoY to 95KT, whereas no change was observed on a MoM basis. NP offtake jumped 60/6% YoY/MoM in May’25 to 76KT, while CAN offtake increased 147/86% YoY/MoM to 83KT. In May’25, industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,316KT, an eight year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing and previously high stock levels. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 238KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at 359/570/321/66KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in May’25. DAP inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 139/19KT.
Economy: The MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged at 11% - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its meeting today wherein the committee decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% due to emerging risks amid evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects in its inflation outlook.
  • At its meeting today, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 11%, viewing this stance as appropriate in light of emerging external risks and to safeguard macroeconomic stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Committee observed that the uptick in headline inflation to 3.5% YoY in May 2025 aligned with earlier projections, as the favorable base effects on food prices gradually eroded. At the same time, core inflation recorded a slight moderation, and inflation expectations among households and businesses further softened.
  • Despite the more favorable inflation readings, the MPC highlighted the persistence of significant external risks that could undermine Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability. In particular, the Committee drew attention to heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by escalating trade protectionism and tariff measures, alongside volatile geopolitical conditions that continue to fuel instability. The MPC also highlighted that rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in international oil prices, thereby amplifying external vulnerabilities. Additionally, the potential adverse effects of proposed fiscal measures and the risk of shortfalls in planned external inflows were noted as factors that could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine overall price stability.
Cement: Lahore High Court announces 6% royalty decision against Cement Manufacturers - By Topline Research

Jun 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • In a major development today, Lahore High Court larger bench has announced its decision against the Punjab based cement manufacturers regarding royalty case. The companies will have to pay the royalty amount at prescribed formula of 6% of retention price.
  • Companies may go for appeal in Supreme Court now, however, this decision to go for review is not final yet from cement manufacturers.
  • To recall that manufacturers based in Punjab were already provisioning for their raw material cost based on formula of 6% of retention price.
Economy: Middle East Conflict-Implications for PSX - By Chase Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The conflict erupted after Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing several high-ranking generals and nuclear experts.
  • In retaliation, Iran fired over 150 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones at Israel, targeting military sites and urban centers, in what it called "Operation True Promise III".
  • Both sides have since traded escalating rounds of attacks: Israel has struck more than 250 targets in Iran, including nuclear development sites, missile launch facilities, energy infrastructure, and the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tehran.
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC): FFC received board approval to submit EOI for PIACL privatization - By AKD Research

Jun 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC) has announced that its Board of Directors, in a meeting held on June 13, 2025, approved the submission of an Expression of Interest (EOI) and prequalification documents to Privatization Commission for the potential acquisition of stakes in Pakistan International Airlines Corporation Ltd. (PIACL) and undertaking a comprehensive due diligence exercise as part of the process.
  • PIACL, the national flag carrier of Pakistan, holds the highest market share in the domestic aviation sector at 19% and operates fleet of 34 aircraft. In a major restructuring effort last year, gov’t carved out net liabilities amounting to PkR654bn and non-core assets into PIA Holding Company Ltd. (Holdco of PIACL), making PIACL a debt-lite entity. Notably, PIACL was EBITDA-positive in CY24, with a reported equity value of PkR3.6bn as of Dec’24.
  • To recall, Privatization Commission had set a minimum bid price of PkR85bn in the previous privatization attempt. While, FFC has cash and ST investments worth PkR147bn on a standalone basis as of Mar’25.
Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.
  • Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.
  • Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.
Economy: Jun’25 Monetary Policy Review - By Taurus Research

Jun 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting today kept the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.00%, in line with expectations. The MPC highlighted the marginal decline in core inflation in May’25, with expectations of NCPI trending upwards going forward – albeit remaining within the SBP’s target range of 5%-7%. Wherein, recent budgetary measures are likely to have limited impact on inflation, although upside risks to this outlook remain very high.
  • Economic growth is picking-up gradually, likely to gain more traction next year with the impact of earlier rate cuts still unfolding. The MPC also noted potential risks to the external sector in the form of: i) widening trade deficit; and ii) weak financials inflows. Additionally, certain proposed FY26 budgetary measures are also likely to widen the trade deficit more.
  • Moreover, the MPC also pointed towards the recent sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the evolving geo-political situation in the Middle-East. Accordingly, the MPC has flagged Pakistan’s external outlook as susceptible to multiple risks like heightened geopolitical tensions, volatility in international oil prices, possible adverse impact of proposed budgetary measures, and potential shortfalls in planned financial inflows.
Pakistan Economy: Policy rate likely to remain ‘unchanged’ - By Taurus Research

Jun 13 2025


Taurus Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on Monday June 16, 2025, wherein we expect the MPC to keep the benchmark policy rate ‘unchanged’ at 11%. Our expectations are primarily based on the following factors:
  • Geo-political developments: Recent escalation between Iran and Israel, as well as the war between Russia & Ukraine, continues to pose upside risks to commodity prices in particular oil. For context, oil prices are up ~9% following Israel’s attack on Iran. These pressures pose a significant risk to inflation expectations.
  • Core inflation remains elevated: Core inflation in Urban and Rural areas was recorded at 7.3% and ~9%, respectively in the latest NCPI reading for the month of May’25. We believe the MPC would like to see a more sustained decrease in the same.
Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGP): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 5 2025


Taurus Securities


  • SNGP, largest integrated natural gas utility in Pakistan, posted a record profit of ~PKR 18.97Bn in FY24, supported by all-time high sales of ~PKR 1Bn.
  • Pakistan’s energy mix includes 30% natural gas (69% from SNGP, 31% from SSGC), 11% RLNG, 21% oil, 15% coal, 12% hydropower, 7% nuclear, and 4% from LPG and renewables combined.
  • SNGPs ownership is split between 32% direct and 42% indirect Government holding, with the remaining 26% held by the public and others.
Cement: May’25 dispatches up 39%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jun 4 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total Cement dispatches in May’25 up 39%MoM on the back of reviving construction demand i.e. Domestic sales went up 46% MoM to 3.6Mn tons. Whereas, total export sales up 20%MoM on account of better retention prices and surge in demand post Indo-Pak de-escalation which benefited North Players, mainly. On a YoY basis, total domestic sales were up 9% in May’25 as lower interest rates and record low inflation have supported players to improve their margins and increased volumes. Although, higher duties and taxes on the cement sector have reduced the overall demand, resulting in overcapacity.
  • North-based domestic sales increased 42%MoM in May’25 due to surge in the construction activities amid seasonal demand and better volumes i.e. lower retail prices compared to the South region. Wherein, export sales were up significantly by 1.1xMoM on the revival of regional sales post Indo-Pak deescalation. South-based domestic sales surged by 64%MoM in May’25 amid revival of the construction demand. On the export front, South-based exports were up 5%MoM, respectively.
  • On a YoY basis, North-based domestic sales surged 10%YoY in May’25 due to pick up in construction demand on the back of lower interest rates and record low inflation. Similarly, Northbased exports were up significantly by 48%YoY, reflecting higher demand from the export regions. On the South front, domestic sales during May’25 increased by 5%YoY. However, export sales dropped 2%YoY to 0.75Mn tons, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: May’25 NCPI clocked-in at 3.5%YoY/-0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jun 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation for the month of May’25 picked-up as anticipated due to the low base effect mainly, to clock-in at 3.5%YoY/- 0.2%MoM. Consequently, FYTD NCPI stands at 4.7%YoY. Accordingly, inflation in both Urban and Rural areas arrived in at 3.5%YoY and 3.4%YoY, respectively.
  • Nevertheless, MoM inflation dipped on account of slight decrease in food prices; ~1.2%MoM decline in utility prices due to adjustment in electricity charges; muted impact of fuel prices; and continued slowdown in core inflation. To note, core inflation in Urban areas stood at 7.3%YoY, down 0.4%MoM and in Rural areas it was recorded at 8.8%YoY, down 0.4%MoM, respectively.
  • In food category, excluding Eggs (up ~24.3%MoM), a broadbased drop was witnessed including substantial fall in prices of Onions & Tomatoes. Conversely, core segments like Clothing & Footwear , Furniture & Household Equipment, Restaurant & Hotels and the Miscellaneous showcased resilience. Additionally, SPI inflation on a YoY basis fell 0.6% in May’25. However, WPI inflation on a YoY basis was up 0.4% in May’25.
Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Limited (JDMT): FY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 2 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Ltd was incorporated in Pakistan as a Public Company in the year 1960. The Company is mainly engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of yarn.
  • In FY24, sales clocked in at PKR 5.8Bn as compared to PKR 6Bn, down 2% over the SPLY mainly due to reduced availability of cheaper imported yarn from China and Vietnam. The Company recorded gross loss of 6ppts arriving at -0.42% compared to 6% in the SPLY driven by a ~60% rise in fuel & power costs, a 100% increase in closing stock and higher minimum wage rate. Additionally, a ~150% surge in gas prices significantly strained operating margins beyond the Company’s capacity to absorb costs.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 358Mn compared to PKR 325Mn, up 10% over the SPLY driven by higher interest rate during the period. The Company posted an impairment reversal on investments in associated Company of PKR 23Mn compared to the loss of PKR 20Mn in the SPLY
Gadoon Textile Mills Limited (GADT): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Gadoon Textile Mills Limited (GADT) was incorporated in Pakistan on February 23, 1988 as a public limited company. The principal activity of the Company is manufacturing & sale of yarn, knitted bedding products, dyeing services and production & sale of milk.
  • In 9MFY25, sales clocked in at PKR 55Bn compared to PKR 54Bn, up 2% over the SPLY attributable to higher volumetric sales of knitted bedding products despite the decline in yarn sales. Gross margins increased 2ppts arriving at 9% compared to 7% in the SPLY mainly due to a better raw material mix, improved pricing strategies and increased use of renewable energy.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 1.9Bn compared to PKR 3Bn, down 38% in the SPLY driven by lower interest rates, improved working capital management and balanced mix of local & foreign currency borrowings. The profit from associates declined 21%YoY arriving at PKR 851Mn as compared to PKR 1Bn in the SPLY.
Adamjee Life Assurance Company Limited (ALIFE): CY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of the ALIFE presented CY24 corporate briefing session where they highlighted that the Company had achieved the highest ever PAT in CY24 to PKR 1.5Bn on the back of significant surge in the investment income due to record high interest rates and increase in the size of the book. However, shares from bancassurance declined to around 15% on account of drop in the disposable income. Further, the management shared a significant jump in fixed assets as the resultant effect of incorporating IFRS-16. The management also told that the deadline for IFRS-17 was Jan’26.
  • With regards to the market share, bancassurance, direct distribution and group life units held a market share of 15%, 10% and 7% during CY24. The management expects the market share of bancassurance, direct distribution and group life during CY25 will increase to 20%, 15% and 15%, respectively. The management expects a gradual growth in its direct distribution unit amid successful implementation of the direct distribution model back in 2018. Further, they anticipates bancassurance as the major revenue driver with most of the gross premium coming from regular premium products during CY25 and CY26. While, they revised down revenue projections for single premium products due to uncertainties revolving around muted growth.
  • As per the view of underwriting performance, the management discussed that the Company is holding lower margins than its competitors due to lower size of the book and slightly lower claim ratio. However, they are optimistic about increasing underwriting ratio of the Company based on the current economic stability and gradual increase in the disposable income.
K-Electric (KEL): NEPRA approves Multi-Year T&D Tariff for K-Electric - By Taurus Research

May 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NEPRA has approved Multi-Year Tariff for Transmission & Distribution (T&D) network segments of K-Electric for FY24- FY30. Salient features of the multi-year tariff approved by NEPRA are as follows:
  • Control Period: 7 Years, from FY24- FY30.
  • Allowed Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 70:30.
Image Pakistan Limited (IMAGE): 3QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • IMAGE is a premium fashion retailer specializing in Schiffli embroidery and digital lawn. It operates 14 stores across Pakistan and a growing online platform serving both local and international markets. With subsidiaries in the UK and USA, IMAGE targets the affordable luxury segment, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern design for its customers.
  • In 3QFY25, IMAGE reported sales of PKR 1,205 million, relatively unchanged from 3QFY24 sales of PKR 1,204 million. Gross profit margin slightly improved to 45% in 3QFY25 compared to 42% in the same period last year (SPLY). However, net profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 12% to PKR 209Mn in 3QFY25 from PKR 238Mn in the SPLY due to an increase in distribution and selling expenses. EPS stood at PKR 0.91 in 3QFY25 (3QFY24 EPS: PKR 1.81).
  • During 3QFY25, IMAGE expanded its physical presence with three new stores: Multan, Gujrat, and a new outlet at Dolmen Mall Lahore, taking total outlets to 14 nationwide. An additional three outlets (DHA Phase VI Karachi, Giga Mall Rawalpindi, and F-6 Islamabad) are scheduled for launch by the end of CY25, which will bring the total to 17 brick-and-mortar stores. This accelerated rollout indicates management’s confidence in sustained foot traffic recovery and untapped urban demand.