Economy: Inflation to moderate further in FY26 - By AKD Research

Jun 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Continued tight monetary and fiscal policies amid stable currency are expected to moderate inflation further in FY26.
  • We expect inflation to remain at 4.4% in FY26, broadly in line with estimation for FY25, driven by a modest increase in the heavily weighted Food and Housing indices amid subdued Int’l commodity prices.
  • Rupee is expected to remain stable due to improved external account position driven by elevated remittances and rising exports aided by structural reforms.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA): 2QCY25 Result Review — Profitability improved on higher offtakes – By AKD Research

Aug 27 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) announced its 2QCY25 financial results, re porting consolidated earnings of PkR8.6bn (EPS: PkR4.1), an increase of 65%YoY. Earnings came lower than expectations, likely due to higher than anticipated discount offerings. Along with the result, company announced half-yearly dividend of PkR3.5/sh (Payout ratio: 43%).
  • Revenue inclined by 51%YoY to PkR63.9bn from PkR42.3bn in SPLY, mainly due to higher offtakes, with Urea/CAN/NP sales increased by 2.1x/57%/27% YoY, respectively.
  • Gross margins contracted to 32.8% from 38.2% in SPLY, primarily due to higher dis count offerings and lower proportion of urea sales from the base plant, which benefits from lower gas pricing.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): Earnings to surge with energy portfolio continuation – By AKD Research

Aug 27 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect ENGROH consolidated recurring earnings to clock in at PkR8.7bn (EPS: PkR7.25) in 2QCY25, up 3.9x YoY. We do not expect any payout with the result.
  • Surge in profitability is mainly attributed to the continuation of energy portfolio and improved performance in fertilizer and telecom businesses.
  • We maintain our ’BUY’ stance on ENGROH with Dec’25 TP of PkR301/sh.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Faces a bearish trading session – By AKD Research

Aug 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a positive note but experienced a volatile session. It reached an intraday high of 587 points and a low of 736 points before closing with a decline of 678 points at 148,815. Trading volumes dropped significantly, down 37% from the previous session. The MACD has turned bearish after moving below its signal line, with the crossover occurring one session ago. Since then, the index has slipped 0.45%, trading within a range of 150,465 on the higher side and 148,757 on the lower side. Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 73.00, indicating a slightly overbought condition.
  • Chart patterns indicate immediate support at 148,400. A breach of this level could push the index lower towards 147,500 and 147,100. On the upside, resistance is expected at 149,800, with further potential levels at 150,500 and 151,200. A cautious trading stance is advised, with accumulated positions placed against well-defined support zones.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Support tested, market holds the line – By AKD Research

Aug 25 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index began the session on a positive note and maintained a bullish trend throughout the day. It touched an intraday high of 1,230 points and eventually closed with a gain of 258 points at 149,493. Trading volumes, however, fell by 21% compared to the previous session. The KSE-100 ended 14.3% below the upper Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are 45.33% wider than usual which is signaling an elevated volatility relative to the index’s normal range. This expanded band structure has persisted for the past three sessions, suggesting that volatility may ease in the near term, with prices likely to consolidate or move within a trading range.
  • Chart patterns indicate immediate support at 148,800. A breach of this level could push the index lower towards 148,300 and 147,500. On the upside, resistance is expected at 149,800, with further potential levels at 150,500 and 151,200. A cautious trading stance is advised, with accumulated positions placed against well-defined support zones.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Eases off amidst heavy volumes – By AKD Research

Aug 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a positive note but went through a highly volatile session. It recorded an intraday high of 659 points and a low of 2,318 points before closing with a decline of 1,356 points at 149,235. Trading volumes jumped 55% compared to the previous session. The KSE-100 is trading 26.9% above its 200-period moving average, maintaining an upward trend. Volatility remains in line with the average of the last 10 periods. Volume indicators suggest moderate inflows, reflecting a mildly bullish sentiment, while trend forecasting oscillators continue to signal a bullish outlook, sustained over the past 65 periods. Momentum indicators, however, show that the index is currently in overbought territory.
  • Chart patterns indicate immediate support at 148,300. A breach of this level could push the index lower towards 147,900 and 147,500. On the upside, resistance is expected at 149,800, with further potential levels at 150,500 and 151,200. A cautious trading stance is advised, with accumulated positions placed against well-defined support zones.
Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Aug 20 2025


AKD Securities


  • Bank’s profit for 1HCY25 stood at PkR46.2bn (EPS: PkR25.7), down 10%YoY, due to lower Net Spread Earned and a provision expense against a reversal in SPLY.
  • Return on financings, investments and placements fell to PkR210bn in 1HCY25 compared to PkR250bn in 1HCY24, due to falling yields.
  • Total other income increased by 40%YoY to PkR16.4bn in 1HCY25 compared to PkR11.7bn in SPLY due to significant increase in Fee and commission, FX income and gain on securities.
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSO): Higher offtakes lead to earnings inline, liquidity recovery intact – by AKD Research

Aug 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • Net sales for the final quarter clocked in at PkR813bn during the quarter (down 10%YoY). The decline during the quarter was due to 4%YoY decrease in offtakes and lower fuel prices compared to SPLY.
  • Company’s OMC offtakes totalled 1.8mn tons during 4QFY25, reflecting a -4% YoY/+14%QoQ change. For FY25, total volumes amounted to 7.2mn tons (down 5%YoY), resulting in annual market share of 44% (compared to 49.4% in FY24).
  • We have a ‘BUY’ rating on the stock, with a Dec’25 TP of PkR729/sh, representing an upside potential of 81% from last close. Our liking for the stock is on the back of i) strengthening liquidity situation amid ongoing gas-tariff reforms, ii) anticipated growth in OMC volumes on the back of future economic recov ery, iii) CPI-linked OMC margins, and iv) upgradation of refinery subsidiary (PRL), and v) diversification into EV-charging stations.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Upward trend intact – By AKD Research

Aug 12 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index began the session on a strong note, marking a fresh record high, but remained volatile during the day. It touched an intraday high of 1,622 points and a low of 124 points before closing with a robust gain of 1,547 points at 146,930. Trading volumes rose by 15% compared to the previous session. The MACD remains bullish as it is trading above its signal line, which it crossed three sessions ago. Since then, the index has gained 1.27% and moved within a range of 147,005 to 143,410.
  • The current chart formation depicts that the immediate support lies at 146,600. If this level is breached, the index may fall further toward 145,800 and 145,300. On the flip side, resistance is expected around 147,500, with further potential targets at 148,150 and 148,600. It is recommended to trade with a cautious approach accumulate positions near defined support zone with risk managed below it.
Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL): Falling production and lower oil prices dampen bottom-line – By AKD Research

Aug 11 2025


AKD Securities


  • Company reported net sales of PkR12.3bn during the quarter, down 18% YoY/16%QoQ. The decline was due to significantly reduced gas and oil output of 43mmcfd/4.1k bpd (as per PPIS), down 34%/15%YoY compared to SPLY, amidst natural decline and line-pack pressure in gas transmission system. Furthermore, lower average oil prices and lower well-head prices also contributed to the decline in revenue.
  • Exploration expenses remained elevated at PkR1.4bn, likely due to the 3D seis mic surveys conducted by the company in Pariwali D&P (POL: 82.5%) and Ikhlas E.L. (POL: 80%) blocks during the period.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance for POL, with Dec’25 TP of PkR800/sh and DY of 14% during FY26.