KseAlert | Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 26 2025

Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025

Insight Securities

Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.

Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).

We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.

Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025

Taurus Securities

BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.

During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.

Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025

Foundation Securities

Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.

To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.

Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025

Ismail Iqbal Securities

Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.

Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.

Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025

Alpha Capital

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.

Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.

Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025

HMFS Research

The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.

Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.

D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025

AKD Securities

D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.

Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.

Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.

Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025

Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.

In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.

Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025

Taurus Securities

Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.

The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.

Market Wrap: Market round up: Jul 18 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jul 18 2025

Pearl Securities

The benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward trajectory during the week, climbing to new all-time highs on the back of sustained investor optimism. This momentum was primarily driven by strong corporate earnings expectations and continued strengthening of key macroeconomic indicators. The index concluded the week on a solid footing at 138,597 points, marking an impressive week -on-week gain of 4,298 points. Despite the upward momentum, market participation moderated slightly, with average daily all-share volumes declining by 20% WoW to 763 million shares, compared to 948 million shares in the preceding week. Investor sentiment during the week was shaped by a mix of macroeconomic and policy developments, including: 1) Pakistan posting a current account surplus for the first time in 14 years, 2) Moody’s highlighting concerns over Pakistan’s missed tax target amid ongoing trade discussions with the U.S., 3) Pakistan’s substantial external debt obligations of over USD 23 billion due in FY26, 4) Positive growth in LSM for May, though the sector remained in contraction for FY25, 5) Another upward revision in domestic petroleum prices driven by the global crude oil rally, and 6) An increase in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves to USD 14.53 billion. Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Market Wrap: Market round up Jul 09 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jul 9 2025

Pearl Securities

The benchmark KSE-100 index experienced a notable correction during today’s trading session, following its historic breach of the 134,000-point mark in intraday trading yesterday. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 reached an intraday high of 133,566(+163pts) and an intraday low of 132,326(-1,077pts) to close at a 132,577(-826pts) level. The all-share volume decreased to 906mn compared to 1,204mn shares traded (-25% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included TPLP (66mn), KOSM (62mn), PIAHCLA (40mn), TBL (40mn), and HASCOL (32mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 26 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jun 26 2025

The benchmark KSE-100 index concluded today’s trading session in the negative territory as profit-taking prevailed amid the ongoing rollover week pressures. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 recorded an intraday high of 123,418(+656pts) to close at a 122,046(-715pts) level. The all-share volume marginally increased to 759mn compared to 750mn shares traded (+1.2% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included PIBTL (38mn), WTL (33mn), SSGC (33mn), PASL (32mn), and KEL (25mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 25 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jun 25 2025

The KSE-100 index witnessed bullish momentum during today’s trading session as buying continued following de-escalation in geopolitical tensions after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel by US President Donald Trump. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 recorded an intraday high of 123,257(+1,010pts) and an intraday low of 112,169(-78pts) to close at a 122,762 (+515pts) level. The all-share volume decreased to 750mn compared to 805mn shares traded (-8% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included WTL (102mn), PRL (47mn), CNERGY (40mn), BML (30mn), and FDPL (18mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.

Economy: Analyst Briefing Takeaways: SBP Post-MPS Analyst Briefing - By Pearl Research

Jun 17 2025

Pearl Securities

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held a post-MPS Analyst Briefing on 16th June 2025 wherein Executive Director, Monetary Policy and Research Cluster and the Governor SBP explained the rationale of maintaining the policy rate unchanged at 11% and responded to questions.

This decision takes into account the recent reacceleration in headline inflation during May— which largely aligned with projections—while acknowledging a modest easing in core inflation and a continued moderation in inflation expectations. The MPC also recognized nascent signs of economic recovery, though external sector vulnerabilities persist, notably in the form of a widening trade imbalance and subdued financial inflows. Furthermore, certain fiscal measures proposed for FY26 are anticipated to exert incremental pressure on the import bill.

The MPC deliberations were informed by key macroeconomic indicators. Real GDP growth for FY25 has been provisionally recorded at 2.7%, driven by a marked acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year (3.9% in 2HFY25) relative to the first half (1.4% in 1HFY25). The growth trajectory for FY26 is expected to build on this momentum, supported by easing financial conditions, enhanced business confidence, and sectoral improvements.

Economy: The MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged at 11% - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025

Pearl Securities

The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its meeting today wherein the committee decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% due to emerging risks amid evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects in its inflation outlook.

At its meeting today, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 11%, viewing this stance as appropriate in light of emerging external risks and to safeguard macroeconomic stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Committee observed that the uptick in headline inflation to 3.5% YoY in May 2025 aligned with earlier projections, as the favorable base effects on food prices gradually eroded. At the same time, core inflation recorded a slight moderation, and inflation expectations among households and businesses further softened.

Despite the more favorable inflation readings, the MPC highlighted the persistence of significant external risks that could undermine Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability. In particular, the Committee drew attention to heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by escalating trade protectionism and tariff measures, alongside volatile geopolitical conditions that continue to fuel instability. The MPC also highlighted that rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in international oil prices, thereby amplifying external vulnerabilities. Additionally, the potential adverse effects of proposed fiscal measures and the risk of shortfalls in planned external inflows were noted as factors that could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine overall price stability.

Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.

Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.

Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.

Economy: MPC to cut the policy rate by 50bps in the forthcoming meeting - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025

Pearl Securities

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 5 th May, 2025, wherein we expect the committee to cut the key policy rate by 50bps to 11.5%.

Our view of a 50bps rate cut by the MPC is predicated on continued trajectory of disinflation coupled with forward looking inflationary expectations, Pakistan’s current external position and economic activity needed to improve tax revenue collection, improved credit rating, uptick in financial inflows from bilateral and multilateral lenders as well as emerging upside risks of escalation in inflation volatility amid a heightened global economic policy uncertainty environment.

To note, the headline inflation rate of March 2025 was recorded at a 59 year low of 0.7% YoY in the month of March 2025 in stark contrast to 20.7% YoY during SPLY, indicating continued deepening of disinflation compared to 1.5% YoY observed in February 2025. The March 2025 CPI print further pushed real interest rates (RIR) into the deep positive territory of +1100bps. Similarly, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending 24th April 2025 recorded a historical deflation rate of =3.52% YoY. Additionally, while core inflation remained relatively elevated at 8.98% YoY in March 2025, it was well below the 5 year trailing average of 12.24%, indicating easing in more persistent measures of inflation. Our forecast indicates that despite attrition of offsetting high base year effects in the medium term, RIR should remain positive on a forward looking basis and we believe inflation expectations should remain anchored. To note, with the exception of the previous MPS on 10th March, 2025, interest rate moves when RIR exceeds 5% are skewed towards a 100-250bps cut, indicating that the MPC may deem it adequate to commence the ongoing monetary easing cycle

Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025

Pearl Securities

We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.

Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.

Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates.

Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025

Pearl Securities

We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.

Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.

Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates