Economy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2HCY25 - By AHCML Research

Jul 1 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 2.68% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26. Pakistan’s economy is expected to recover modestly in FY25, with services growing 2.9% YoY, supported by commodity sectors. Industrial growth is forecasted at 3.2% YoY, driven by LSM recovery, though energy-related challenges pose risks. Agriculture is set to grow 1.8% YoY, led by livestock and forestry despite a decline in major crops. A shift to renewable energy is expected to cut costs and ensure stable power supply, boosting efficiency.
  • This growth is supported by lower interest rates backed by lower inflation and a stable PKR. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in FY26, aided by improving supply of food related commodities, stability in PKR and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.
  • The IMF agreement has boosted investor confidence, while a clear roadmap for debt management, FDI commitments from friendly countries, and ambitious privatization efforts signal an economic turnaround. High-impact projects like Reko Diq and energy sector reforms under the SIFC enhance Pakistan's appeal as an investment destination, creating opportunities for investors to leverage these developments at the PSX.
Pakistan Economy: Aug’25 CPI likely to clock in at 4.1% - By Insight Research

Aug 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~4.1% for Aug’25, compared to ~9.6% in SPLY and ~4.1% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~0.4%, amid increase in prices of food items the impact of which has been negated by lower electricity charges and decline in LPG price.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (38.8↑%), Onions (21.5↑%), Eggs (9.9%↑), Fresh vegetables (4.0%↑) & Wheat (4.0%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Fresh fruits (9.9%↓), LPG (9.8%↓), Potato (5.1%↓), Pulse moong (4.6%↓) & Sugar (4.1%↓).
  • We anticipate that the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged in upcoming MPC, as the full impact of cumulative 1,100bps reduction in policy rate is still unfolding. The real sector remains in recovery mode following the strain of elevated inflation and sharp currency depreciation, both of which eroded purchasing power of masses. Furthermore, central bank’s tone in the last MPC suggested a pause for now, which will provide clarity to the market and encourage credit offtake in the coming months, given that no immediate cut in borrowing costs is expected. Hence, it appears prudent to maintain the policy rate at its current level and wait for the steep decline in interest rates to translate into real economic activity.
Bank Islami Pakistan Limited (BIPL): 2QCY25 Corporate Briefing – By Taurus Research

Aug 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • BIPL is currently operating with 544 branches across Pakistan. Number of accounts as of Jun’25 are ~1.7Mn.
  • During CY25, the Bank launched AIK Digital App, which is one of its kind Islamic digital app, offering complete digital banking experience. The Bank is also planning to relocate its head-office, for which it has acquired a 32-storey building. Moreover, the Bank has also upgraded its core banking system to R-14 to enhance operational efficiencies and services.
Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH): 1HCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Aug 29 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Engro Holdings Limited (ENGROH PA) held its Analyst Briefing to discuss the company’s financial/operational performance during 1HCY25 and prospects. The following are key takeaways of the session.
  • To recall, ENGROH’s PAT underwent a jump of 11.3x YoY in 2Q to PKR 69.3Bn due to thermal asset adjustments and re-measurements. However, excluding thermal asset adjustments, normalized PAT stood at only ~PKR 1.3Bn, reflecting the true underlying business performance. During 1HCY25, PAT reached PKR 73.3Bn versus PKR 13.8Bn in SPLY, recording a 5.3x YoY increase.
Morning News: ADB pledges $410m for Reko Diq project – By IIS Research

Aug 29 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Out of the total $6 billion funding committed by all international lenders for Reko Diq, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has committed to provide financing of $410 million.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik on Thursday welcomed the interest of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in Pakistan’s landmark Reqo Diq mining project, terming it a pivotal moment for strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and energy sectors.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 targeting the 30-DMA; stay cautious – By JS Research

Aug 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed range bound activity to close at 147,344, down 151 points DoD. Volumes stood at 935mn shares compared to 857mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is expected to test support between 146,700 and 147,210 levels as a fall below, will extend the decline towards 146,057, followed by the 30-DMA at 143,859 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 148,040-148,370 levels. The RSI and the MACD are moving down, supporting a corrective view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current levels. The support and resistance are at 147,021 and 147,854 levels, respectively.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by USD 18mn to USD 14.27bn – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Aug 29 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose for a third straight week and stood at USD 14.27bn as of August 22, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Thursday.
  • Following the ongoing sugar crisis, Pakistan may now face a potential wheat flour crisis, as national wheat stocks stand at 33.47mn tons, slightly below the country’s annual consumption requirement of 33.58mn tons.
Morning News: RLNG arrears recovery: PD-private sector ‘alliance’ takes on Ogra – By HMFS Research

Aug 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Power Division and the private sector on Thursday appeared to have formed an undeclared alliance against the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) over the recovery of RLNG arrears from 2015 to 2024 — a move that, if enforced, would impact both industry and power plants, with the ultimate burden shifting to electricity consumers. The joint position was evident during a public hearing at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regarding uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) for July 2025 across the country, including K-Electric’s service area.
  • Pakistan’s economic stability faces renewed challenges as the Finance Division warns that flood-related damages could intensify fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies across affected areas as well as pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth. The monthly economic update and outlook August 2025 noted that adverse climatic events (heavy rainfall and floods) pose a risk in achieving agriculture sector’s targeted growth.
D.G. Khan Cement Company Limited (DGKC): Result Review — Earnings rise on surging margins – By AKD Research

Aug 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • D.G. Khan Cement Company Ltd. (DGKC) announced its 4QFY25 financial results, reporting earnings of PkR3.2bn (EPS: PkR7.2), compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to im proved margins and lower ETR during the quarter. Additionally, company an nounced a final cash payout of PkR2.0/sh.
  • Revenue declined by 1%YoY to PkR16.8bn, compared to PkR17.0bn in SPLY, driven by 1.2%YoY decline in total offtakes to 1.28mn tons.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.8% from 7.9% in SPLY, supported by decline in coal prices and grid tariffs.
Pakistan Floods: Historical Impact – By CHASE Research

Aug 28 2025



  • Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
  • In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and cement demand.
Archroma Pakistan Limited (ARPL): 9MSY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Aug 28 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Archroma Pakistan Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture, import, and sale of dyes and other specialty chemical solutions. It is a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based company, Archroma Textiles GmbH. ARPL has two business divisions: textile effects and packaging technologies with a combined portfolio of between 300-400 products. APRL’s products are used in the pre-treatment, dyeing, printing, and finishing of textiles, and coloration and coatings of packaging materials. The Company’s products help enhance both the optical as well as the functional properties of its clients’ end products.
  • The textile effects division has four markets with several segments within each. These are: apparel (denim, casual wear, performance apparel, and formal war), home textiles (home and institutional, automotive), specialized textiles (technical textiles, protection textiles), and home care (personal care, plastics, and leather). This division serves customers from a wide range of industries such as textile, healthcare, cosmetics (anti-perspirant agents), construction (protective clothing), and producers of household care products such as detergents, dishwashing liquids, and other cleaning products.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 25 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index remained volatile on Monday, touching an intraday high of 150,079.75 before closing at 148,815.30, down 677.75 points (-0.45 %) on profit taking. Sentiment stayed cautious amid rollover week. On the economic front, the World Bank approved a $47.9 million grant to support education in Punjab. Meanwhile, Reko Diq Mining Company secured around $6 billion in funding pledges.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 19 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange's benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its bullish momentum, hitting an all-time intraday high of 150,323.38 points before closing at a record 149,770.74, up 1,574.32 points (+1.06%). According to Bloomberg, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) may cut policy rates by another 100 basis points, while also launching an upgraded payment system today. Top contributors to the index included BAHL, UBL, LUCK, MEBL, and ENGROH, collectively adding 1,306.29 points. WTL led trading volumes with 52.32 million shares, as total market turnover reached 809.08 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 11 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange's (PSX)benchmark KSE-100 Index maintained its bullish momentum, reaching an all-time intraday high of 147,005.17 points before closing at a record 146,929.84, up 1,547.04 points (+1.06%). Investor confidence was buoyed by the approval of Pakistan’s first National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Policy, targeting the creation of 3 million jobs and a 7–12% GDP boost by 2030, along with improved corporate results and the official U.S. visit of Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir. Top contributors to the index included MARI, BAHL, OGDC, MEBL, and MCB, collectively adding 959.54 points. Trading volume was led by LOTCHEM with 73.29 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at611.21million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index closed down by 264.34 points (-0.18%) at 145,382.79, after hitting an intraday high of 146,813.43 amid profit-taking. The market dipped mainly due to a USD 111 million WoW decline in Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves, driven by external debt servicing, and a 5.6% MoM drop in workers’ remittances to USD 3.2 billion in Jul’25, though remittances were up 7.4% YoY. Major drags on the index included EFERT, LUCK, SYS, MARI, and HUBC, collectively pulling it down by 398.69 points. PPL led the volumes with 21.96 million shares traded, while total market volume stood at 544.97 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: MSCI Review August 25 – By AHCML Research

Aug 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Equity market saw measured yet meaningful adjustments in the MSCI August 2025 review, with Faysal Bank (FABL) entering the Frontier Markets Standard Index, while Indus Dyeing (IDYM) and Jubilee General Insurance (JGICL) joined the Small Cap Index, changes effective August 26 that may influence investment flows. Conversely, Habib Sugar (HABSM) and Octopus Digital (OCTOPUS) were removed from the Small Cap Index, potentially affecting sentiment toward these stocks.
  • FABL's Standard Index inclusion is particularly significant, likely triggering passive foreign inflows and historically leading to improved liquidity and short-term price gains, validating the bank's growing market stature. The additions of IDYM and JGICL highlight emerging potential in textiles and insurance sectors. Meanwhile, the exclusion of HABSM and OCTOPUS suggests deteriorating liquidity or fundamentals that may reduce foreign interest.
  • The broader MSCI review showed substantial global reshuffling. The PSX impact may be modest in liquidity terms but carries psychological importance, reinforcing confidence in included stocks while warranting caution on excluded names. As MSCI remains cautious on peers like Bangladesh, Pakistan's relative stability stands out, though investors should balance optimism with fundamental analysis.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 7 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Positive sentiment prevailed for most of the trading session, pushing the index to an intra-day high of 146,081.02. The benchmark KSE-100 Index settled at a new record high on Thursday, driven by optimism over structural economic reforms and expectations of improved fiscal discipline.
  • At close, the benchmark index settled at 145,647.13, up 558.64 points or 0.39%. Prime Minister attributed the surge in stock market activity to business-friendly reforms and reiterated that attracting investment remains a top priority for his administration.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 Index crossing the 145,000 mark to hit an all-time intra-day high of 145,187.17 before settling at145,088.49, up 2,051.33 points or 1.43%. The on going rally is supported by positive macroeconomic indicators, renewed investor confidence, and expectations of strong corporate earnings. Major stocks including HBL, NBP, UBL, MEBL, and ENGROH collectively added 1,123.34 points to the index. BOP led the trading volumes with 67.55 million shares, while overall market volume stood at 788.46 million shares.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Result Preview 4QFY25 – By AHCML Research

Aug 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Lucky Cement limited is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR 6,642 million (EPS: PKR 4.53) for 4QFY25, reflecting a decrease of 30% YoY
  • Sales revenue for the quarter is expected to reach PKR 32,713 million, up 17% YoY, supported by higher retention prices.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 38.13%, up 5.7% YoY, primarily driven by lower fuel and coal prices as well as improved cost efficiencies.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Aug 4 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its record-breaking rally, with the KSE-100 Index closing at 142,052.64, up 1, 017.66 points (0.72%). Gains were driven by a new US-Pakistan trade deal that lowers tariffs on Pakistani exports to19%, includes Pakistan’s first oil import agreement with the US via Cnergyico, and explores joint development of oil reserves in Balochistan. A strong rebound in Jul’25 cement dispatches also boosted sentiment. Major contributors LUCK, BAHL, HUBC, HBL, and SYS—added 715.58 points. CNERGY led volumes with 53.71 million shares; total market volume hit 666.37 million.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Result Preview 4QFY25 – By AHCML Research

Aug 4 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Maple Leaf Cement is anticipated to report a PAT of PKR2,101mn (EPS: PKR2.01) for 4QFY25, reflectinganimpressive115%YoYincrease.
  • Sales revenue for the quarter isexpectedtoreachPKR17,603mn, up12%YoY, supported by higher retention prices and export dispatches.
  • Gross margins are estimated at 30.21%, down5.12%YoY.Thedeclineis likely attributed to a higher share of export dispatches, which typically carry lower margins compared to local sales.